Modeling satellite drag coefficients with response surfaces

Satellite drag coefficients are a major source of uncertainty in predicting the drag force on satellites in low Earth orbit. Among other things, accurately predicting the orbit requires detailed knowledge of the satellite drag coefficient. Computational methods are an important tool in computing the drag coefficient but are too intensive for real-time and predictive applications. Therefore, analytic or empirical models that can accurately predict drag coefficients are desired. This work uses response surfaces to model drag coefficients. The response surface methodology is validated by developing a response surface model for the drag coefficient of a sphere where the closed-form solution is known. The response surface model performs well in predicting the drag coefficient of a sphere with a root mean square percentage error less than 0.3% over the entire parameter space. For more complex geometries, such as the GRACE satellite, the Hubble Space Telescope, and the International Space Station, the model errors are only slightly larger at about 0.9%, 0.6%, and 1.0%, respectively.     

Drag and energy accommodation coefficients during sunspot maximum

Conditions appropriate to gas-surface interactions on satellite surfaces in orbit have not been successfully duplicated in the laboratory. However, measurements by pressure gauges and mass spectrometers in orbit have revealed enough of the basic physical chemistry that realistic theoretical models of the gas-surface interaction can now be used to calculate physical drag coefficients. The dependence of these drag coefficients on conditions in space can be inferred by comparing the physical drag coefficient of a satellite with a drag coefficient fitted to its observed orbital decay. This study takes advantage of recent data on spheres and attitude stabilized satellites to compare physical drag coefficients with the histories of the orbital decay of several satellites during the recent sunspot maximum. The orbital decay was obtained by fitting, in a least squares sense, the semi-major axis decay inferred from the historical two-line elements acquired by the US Space Surveillance Network. All the principal orbital perturbations were included, namely geopotential harmonics up to the 16th degree and order, third body attraction of the Moon and the Sun, direct solar radiation pressure (with eclipses), and aerodynamic drag, using the Jacchia-Bowman 2006 (JB2006) model to describe the atmospheric density. After adjusting for density model bias, a comparison of the fitted drag coefficient with the physical drag coefficient has yielded values for the energy accommodation coefficient as well as for the physical drag coefficient as a function of altitude during solar maximum conditions. The results are consistent with the altitude and solar cycle variation of atomic oxygen, which is known to be adsorbed on satellite surfaces, affecting both the energy accommodation and angular distribution of the reemitted molecules.     

低轨卫星的气动特性预测与分析

针对低轨卫星高空自由分子流区的飞行环境特征,采用GOCE卫星典型弹道下的气动数据对DSMC仿真方法进行了算例验证,并就CLL模型下不同物面反射系数对GOCE卫星流场特征及气动特性的预测差异进行了对比分析,给出不同物面反射系数对卫星阻力预测的定量差异.结果表明,本文方法所得气动阻力与文献结果吻合较好,能够在此飞行区域给出合理的气动阻力;当反射系数从0.1逐渐变化至1.0时,卫星流场的驻点区域、尾部方向舵区域压力分布逐渐从带状结构向扇形结构过渡;在所研究的工况下,随着物面反射系数的增加,摩阻系数预测结果偏大,压阻系数预测结果偏小,总阻力先增加后减小,约在反射系数0.8附近达到最大.      

Estimation of ballistic coefficients of low altitude debris objects from historical two line elements

This paper presents a new method for estimating ballistic coefficients (BCs) of low perigee debris objects from their historical two line elements (TLEs). The method uses the drag perturbation equation of the semi-major axis of the orbit. For an object with perigee altitude below 700 km, the variation in the mean semi-major axis derived from the TLE is mainly caused by the atmospheric drag effect, and therefore is used as the source in the estimation of the ballistic coefficient. The method is tested using the GRACE satellites, and a number of debris objects with external ballistic coefficient values, and agreements of about 10% are achieved.     

基于自适应滤波的编队卫星实时相对定轨

提出基于自适应滤波的编队卫星实时相对定轨算法,利用2005-12-09—10两颗GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment）卫星的GPS（Global Positioning System）实测数据进行实时相对定轨试验计算,采用JPL（Jet Propulsion Laboratory）轨道对试验结果外部检核,结果表明:①自适应滤波相对定轨通过自适应因子,可以较好地平衡编队卫星的观测信息和相对动力学信息,其相对定轨结果精度优于Kalman滤波相对定轨结果;②自适应滤波相对定轨结果随着星间基线缩短而精度提高;③两颗GRACE卫星采用单频伪距和广播星历进行自适应滤波相对定轨,可以得到精度优于6cm的星间基线。     

Advanced ensemble modeling method for space object state prediction accounting for uncertainty in atmospheric density

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space traffic management activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed “HASDM-ML,” “CHAMP-ML,” and “MSIS-UQ” machine learning models for density estimation (Licata and Mehta, 2022b; Licata et al., 2022b) are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density values. We develop several Monte Carlo methods, each capturing a different spatiotemporal density correlation, to study the effects of density uncertainty on orbit uncertainty propagation. However, Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, so a faster method based on the Kalman filtering technique for orbit uncertainty propagation is also explored. It is difficult to translate the uncertainty in atmospheric density to the uncertainty in orbital states under a standard extended Kalman filter or unscented Kalman filter framework. This work uses the so-called “consider covariance sigma point (CCSP)” filter that can account for the density uncertainties during orbit propagation. As a test-bed for validation purposes, a comparison between CCSP and Monte Carlo methods of orbit uncertainty propagation is carried out. Finally, using the HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ density models, we propose an ensemble approach for orbit uncertainty quantification for four different space weather conditions.     

Rarefied gas effects on the aerodynamics of high area-to-mass ratio spacecraft in orbit

The aerodynamic situation of a satellite-on-a-chip operating in low Earth orbit bears some resemblance to a classical Crookes radiometer. The large area-to-mass ratio characteristic of a SpaceChip means that very small surface-dependent forces produce non-negligible accelerations that can significantly alter its orbit. When the temperature of a SpaceChip changes, the drag force can be changed: if the temperature increases, the drag increases (and vice versa). Analytical expressions available in the literature that describe the change in drag coefficient with orbit altitude and SpaceChip temperature compare well with our direct simulation Monte Carlo results presented here. It is demonstrated that modifying the temperature of a SpaceChip could be used for relative orbit control of individual SpaceChips in a swarm, with a maximum change in position per orbit of 50 m being achievable at 600 km altitude.     

轨道末期星载相机侧摆成像匹配分析与实验

通过分析卫星轨道末期星载TDI CCD相机成像面临的数据读出频率过大、像移失配严重等瓶颈问题, 提出了轨道末期卫星侧摆成像匹配方案. 依据轨道衰减高度, 设计侧摆成像匹配模型, 计算出轨道高度与匹配成像侧摆角度之间的变化关系, 对侧摆成像时的像移速度矢量、偏流角度、成像畸变等进行了定量的可行性分析, 并利用蒙特卡洛方法分析了满足侧摆成像的卫星姿态指向精度和稳定度. 利用基于小型三轴气浮台的小卫星姿态控制系统和TDI CCD相机成像系统进行仿真试验, 结果表明, 仿真图像的MTF函数和互相关相似性测度均在0.85以上, 侧摆成像匹配方案能较好地满足轨道末期成像需求.      

基于线性回归近似替代模型的分布式卫星系统不确定性分析方法

分布式卫星系统在空间科学领域具有广泛的应用前景,同时也对概念设计阶段的分析工作提出了更高的要求.在分布式卫星系统概念设计阶段,评价不确定性参数对于最终探测效能的影响有着重要的工程应用价值.传统的不确定性分析方法存在解析困难、数值模拟计算效率低且耦合关系表征不明确的缺点.本文结合概念设计阶段不确定性分析的特点和需求,提出一种线性回归近似替代模型,将不确定性参数对于探测效能影响的结果计算降维为一个线性组合系数的求解问题.利用一个空间多点探测物理场分界面任务作为典型事例进行仿真验证,结果表明,相比传统数值模拟方法,本文方法在计算效率上具有明显优势且对关键不确定性参数有一定识别作用.      

轴对称羽流流场数值模拟和实验验证

针对在轨航天器羽流效应对航天器整体寿命的影响,在"DFH"系列卫星姿控发动机喷管羽流实验研究的基础上,建立喷管的轴对称模型,选取矩形计算区域,设定一定的边界条件和计算条件,采用轴对称单组分直接模拟蒙特卡罗(DSMC,Direct Simulation Monte Carlo)方法对相应实验状态的羽流流场进行数值模拟研究.通过对比数值模拟结果和实验测量结果,表明DSMC数值模拟羽流流场的计算结果符合实际流动规律,实验验证了所编制的轴对称DSMC数值模拟程序的正确性和有效性.      

Drag balance Cubesat attitude motion effects on in-situ thermosphere density measurements

The dynamics of Cubesats carrying a drag balance instrument (DBI) for in situ atmosphere density measurements is analyzed. Atmospheric drag force is measured by the displacement of two light plates exposed to the incoming particle flow. This system is well suited for a distributed sensor network in orbit, to get simultaneous in situ local (non orbit averaged) measurements in multiple positions and orbit heights, contributing to the development and validation of global atmosphere models. The implementation of the DBI leads to orbit normal pointing spinning two body system. The use of a spin-magnetic attitude control system is suggested, based only on magnetometer readings, contributing to making the system simple, inexpensive, and reliable. It is shown, by an averaging technique, that this system provides for orbit normal spin axis pointing. The effect of the coupling between the attitude dynamics and the DBI is evaluated, analyzing its frequency content and showing that no frequency components arise, affecting the DBI performance. The analysis is confirmed by Monte Carlo numerical simulation results.     

Taylor-Couette流的DSMC数值模拟

使用圆柱坐标系网格的三维DSMC(Direct Simulation Monte Carlo)模型,对同轴圆柱间Taylor-Couette流中Taylor涡的形成进行了数值模拟,并分析了不同计算域和边界条件下稳定流场中Taylor涡的轴向排列结构.在网格设置和流场参数不变的情况下,使用轴对称DSMC模型对Taylor涡进行数值模拟,所得Taylor涡的稳定过程与三维结果一致,验证了使用三维DSMC方法来解决微尺度低速的稀薄气流问题的可行性.三维模拟结果表明Taylor涡以较大的圆周速度绕轴旋转,二维模拟则无法体现.对不同的内圆柱旋转速度进行数值模拟,确定了能够产生Taylor涡的临界速度值.     

大气阻力参数修正对低轨空间目标轨道预报精度的改进

对于低轨空间目标, 大气阻力是影响轨道预报精度的主要摄动力. 本文提出了一种 基于空间环境数据和神经网络模型的空间目标大气阻力参数修正方法, 基于目 标的历史两行元根数, 通过模拟得到外推一天轨道预报中预报结果与观测数据 符合最好的阻力调制系数, 分析表明其与太阳F_10.7指数和地磁Ap指数具有很好的相关性. 根据已有数据, 构建神经网络模型, 实现对阻力调制系数 的补偿计算, 从而改进低轨目标外推一天的轨道预报. 结果表明, 神经网络模 型相比两行元根数能够更及时地对空间环境变化进行响应. 将该方案应用于天 宫一号和国际空间站的外推一天轨道预报, 验证了方案的正确性和普适性, 对 地磁扰动引起的较大预报误差改进效果更好, 误差能够降低50%~60%; 平均而言, 预报精度可以提高约30%, 改进成功率达到80%左右.      

Measuring atmospheric density using GPS–LEO tracking data

We present a method to estimate the total neutral atmospheric density from precise orbit determination of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. We derive the total atmospheric density by determining the drag force acting on the LEOs through centimeter-level reduced-dynamic precise orbit determination (POD) using onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking data. The precision of the estimated drag accelerations is assessed using various metrics, including differences between estimated along-track accelerations from consecutive 30-h POD solutions which overlap by 6 h, comparison of the resulting accelerations with accelerometer measurements, and comparison against an existing atmospheric density model, DTM-2000. We apply the method to GPS tracking data from CHAMP, GRACE, SAC-C, Jason-2, TerraSAR-X and COSMIC satellites, spanning 12 years (2001–2012) and covering orbital heights from 400 km to 1300 km. Errors in the estimates, including those introduced by deficiencies in other modeled forces (such as solar radiation pressure and Earth radiation pressure), are evaluated and the signal and noise levels for each satellite are analyzed. The estimated density data from CHAMP, GRACE, SAC-C and TerraSAR-X are identified as having high signal and low noise levels. These data all have high correlations with anominal atmospheric density model and show common features in relative residuals with respect to the nominal model in related parameter space. On the contrary, the estimated density data from COSMIC and Jason-2 show errors larger than the actual signal at corresponding altitudes thus having little practical value for this study. The results demonstrate that this method is applicable to data from a variety of missions and can provide useful total neutral density measurements for atmospheric study up to altitude as high as 715 km, with precision and resolution between those derived from traditional special orbital perturbation analysis and those obtained from onboard accelerometers.     

三维多组分羽流及其效应的数值模拟

考虑到实际卫星总体布局特点及姿控发动机燃气喷流为多组分的特点,采用差分求解N-S(Navier-Stokes)方程耦合DSMC(Direct Simulation Monte Carlo)方法建立三维多组分羽流场的数值模拟模型,对5 N无水肼单组元姿控发动机喷管产生的燃气羽流场及其效应进行数值模拟,计算得出羽流场的物理参数分布、化学组分分布,得到了羽流对太阳能帆板的羽流气动力和气动热效应.计算结果表明对于太阳能帆板的羽流效应防护应以N2,NH3为主,姿控发动机羽流会对太阳能帆板撞击产生气动力和气动热的影响,在太阳能帆板前沿中点处,存在气动压强峰值和气动热流峰值.计算结果为研究羽流效应提供了参考依据.     

Use of two-line element data for thermosphere neutral density model calibration

Traditional empirical thermospheric density models are widely used in orbit determination and prediction of low-Earth satellites. Unfortunately, these models often exhibit large density errors of up to around 30% RMS. Density errors translate into orbit errors, adversely affecting applications such as re-entry operations, manoeuvre planning, collision avoidance and precise orbit determination for geodetic missions. The extensive database of two-line element (TLE) orbit data contains a wealth of information on satellite drag, at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to allow a calibration of existing neutral density models with a latency of one to two days. In our calibration software, new TLE data for selected objects is converted to satellite drag data on a daily basis. The resulting drag data is then used in a daily adjustment of density model calibration parameters, which modify the output of an existing empirical density model with the aim of increasing its accuracy. Two different calibration schemes have been tested using TLE data for about 50 objects during the year 2000. The schemes involve either height-dependent scale factors to the density or corrections to CIRA-72 model temperatures, which affect the density output based on a physical model. Both schemes have been applied with different spherical harmonic expansions of the parameters in latitude and local solar time. Five TLE objects, varying in perigee altitude between 280 and 530 km, were deliberately not used during calibration, in order to provide independent validation. Even with a single daily parameter, the RMS density model error along their tracks can already be reduced from the 30% to the 15% level. Adding additional parameters results in RMS errors lower than 12%.     

NRLMSISE-00大气模型与GRACE和CHAMP卫星大气密度数据的对比分析

利用GRACE(Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment)和CHAMP(Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload)卫星2002-2008年的大气密度数据与NRLMSISE-00大气模型密度结果进行比较,分析了模型密度误差及其特点.结果显示,NRLMSISE-00大气模型计算的密度值普遍偏大,其相对误差随经纬度变化,在高纬度相对较小;相对误差随地方时变化,在02:00LT和15:00LT左右较大,10:00LT和20:00LT左右较小.通过模型密度相对误差与太阳F_10.7指数的对比分析发现,在太阳活动低年模型相对误差最大,而在太阳活动高年相对误差较小;将模型结果分别与GRACEA/B双星和CHAMP卫星的密度数据进行比较,发现对于轨道高度更高的GRACE卫星轨道,模型相对误差更大;在地磁平静期,相对误差与地磁ap指数(当前3h)相关性不强,但是在大磁暴发生时,误差急剧增大.      

近圆低轨卫星星座相位保持方法

主要研究无轨道高度保持要求的近圆低轨卫星星座相位保持方法.首先根据轨道摄动理论，推导了考虑J2摄动和大气阻尼摄动的卫星相位漂移模型，分别给出基于固定基准星和基于虚拟基准星的相位偏差两种表达方法.在此基础上，按照星座各星轨道衰减一致和不一致两种情况，分别提出两种表示方法理论的和考虑实际控制误差的相位保持策略.通过一个walker星座仿真算例验证了两种方法的有效性.仿真结果显示，两种方法在各星轨道衰减一致和不一致两种情况均可有效完成相位维持任务，当各星轨道衰减一致时两种方法在控制次数和控制总量上无明显差异；在各星轨道衰减不一致情况下，基于固定基准星的相位保持策略更优.     

Analysis of the orbit lifetime of CubeSats in low Earth orbits including periodic variation in drag due to attitude motion

It is estimated that more than 22,300 human-made objects are in orbit around the Earth, with a total mass above 8,400,000 kg. Around 89% of these objects are non-operational and without control, which makes them to be considered orbital debris. These numbers consider only objects with dimensions larger than 10 cm. Besides those numbers, there are also about 2000 operational satellites in orbit nowadays. The space debris represents a hazard to operational satellites and to the space operations. A major concern is that this number is growing, due to new launches and particles generated by collisions. Another important point is that the development of CubeSats has increased exponentially in the last years, increasing the number of objects in space, mainly in the Low Earth Orbits (LEO). Due to the short operational time, CubeSats boost the debris population. One of the requirements for space debris mitigation in LEO is the limitation of the orbital lifetime of the satellites, which needs to be lower than 25 years. However, there are space debris with longer estimated decay time. In LEÓs, the influence of the atmospheric drag is the main orbital perturbation, and is used in maneuvers to increment the losses in the satellite orbital energy, to locate satellites in constellations and to accelerate the decay.The goal of the present research is to study the influence of aerodynamic rotational maneuver in the CubeSat?s orbital lifetime. The rotational axis is orthogonal to the orbital plane of the CubeSat, which generates variations in the ballistic coefficient along the trajectory. The maneuver is proposed to accelerate the decay and to mitigate orbital debris generated by non-operational CubeSats. The panel method is selected to determine the drag coefficient as a function of the flow incident angle and the spinning rate. The pressure distribution is integrated from the satellite faces at hypersonic rarefied flow to calculate the drag coefficient. The mathematical model considers the gravitational potential of the Earth and the deceleration due to drag. To analyze the effects of the rotation during the decay, multiple trajectories were propagated, comparing the results obtained assuming a constant drag coefficient with trajectories where the drag coefficient changes periodically. The initial perigees selected were lower than 400 km of altitude with eccentricities ranging from 0.00 to 0.02. Six values for the angular velocity were applied in the maneuver. The technique of rotating the spacecraft is an interesting solution to increase the orbit decay of a CubeSat without implementing additional de-orbit devices. Significant changes in the decay time are presented due to the increase of the mean drag coefficient calculated by the panel method, when the maneuver is applied, reducing the orbital lifetime, however the results are independent of the angular velocity of the satellite.