基于D-S证据理论的目标属性辨识研究

D—S证据组合理论已经成为不确定性推理的一种重要方法，基于该理论的多传感器决策层信息融合已得到广泛应用。本文在简要介绍D—S证据组合理论框架基础上，阐述了基于D—S证据组合理论的信息融合一般步骤及决策层判决方法；分析了发生证据严重冲突时，Dempster证据组合规则出现的不可靠和不合理的本质原因，介绍了针对D—S证据组合规则进行修正的几种主要方法；最后，提出了需要继续深入探讨的问题。     

证据冲突下自适应融合目标识别算法

 利用证据理论对空中目标识别系统的观测信息融合时,Dempster规则对低冲突信息的融合结果较为理想,但无法对高冲突信息有效融合。Dubois &; Prade(DP)规则及证据折扣法可对高冲突信息进行合理融合。为使不同融合方法发挥各自优势,提出一种自适应融合算法。首先将矛盾因子和证据距离两者结合以更全面地表示证据冲突程度,当冲突较小时,选用Dempster规则,反之,根据冲突的具体情况选择使用DP规则或证据折扣法。通过目标识别实验对多种算法进行了对比,表明本文算法既能对高冲突证据进行合理融合,又能使融合结果快速收敛,可以有效地提高识别速度及正确率。     

基于云模型和改进D-S证据理论的目标识别决策方法

在目标识别决策系统中,多探测器多源信息融合的模糊性和不确定性以及各探测周期所得信息的冲突互斥会造成目标识别决策不精准。为解决这一问题,提出基于云模型和改进D-S （Dempster-Shafer）证据理论的目标识别决策方法。首先,将目标识别准确性这一语言评价值划分为不同评价区间等级,以不同评价等级标准云为参照将各探测器各探测周期所得信息转化为云决策矩阵,得出各周期各等级隶属度,进而构建出基本概率分配函数（mass函数）;其次,基于证据理论引入冲突度、差异度、离散度3类衡量冲突大小的参数,定义了一种新的证据冲突参数,同时改进证据冲突融合算法,对各探测器各周期证据体进行修正并融合;再次,结合各探测器权重加权得出各目标综合识别决策的mass函数对目标进行决策;最后,结合算例,验证该方法的适用性,并与其他方法相对比验证了本文方法的优越性。     

加权D—S证据理论在多平台数据融合中的应用

D—s证据理论在多平台、多传感器目标识别中有着广泛的应用。利用多平台协同数据融合系统的优势,解决了单一平台获取目标信息上的不足。对各平台传感器获取信息采用证据加权的方法,以获得较好的传感器可信度基本概率赋值,提高D—S证据理论在多传感器目标识别上的准确性。实验证明了方法的正确性和有效性。     

基于多Agent卫星遥测数据实时监测与诊断技术

为了提高根据遥测数据进行卫星故障诊断的速度与精度,提出了集成多信号模型诊断Agent、模糊诊断Agent以及专家系统诊断Agent等多Agent监测与诊断系统。多信号模型诊断Agent,采用模糊阈值进行监测,并引入可信度因子对Deb原实时诊断推理方法做了改进,解决了Deb方法可能因虚警而导致的诊断结果冲突的问题。模糊诊断Agent采用Mamdani算法,能给出部件故障的可能性。专家系统诊断Agent采用基于规则的产生式系统,同时采用加权不确定推理解决了规则的不确定性问题。研究了3种诊断Agent的协作方式,采用D-S证据理论对各Agent的诊断结果进行决策融合,给出故障元件的置信区间。通过某卫星仿真遥测数据验证,该集成诊断系统充分利用了各种诊断方法的优点,诊断精度高且速度快(一般诊断时间小于0.3秒,PIII800/256M计算机),适用于卫星地面站对卫星遥测数据进行自动实时在线监测与诊断推理。     

基于置信度的自适应Kalman滤波定位方法

针对室外自主移动机器人因感知信息缺失或异常波动造成的定位失败或偏差过大的问题,设计了一种基于置信度的自适应Kalman滤波定位方法。该方法根据置信距离和置信度函数计算局部滤波器的置信度,并将其进行加权运算后作为全局滤波器的自适应因子,以得到更为准确的位姿估计。采用D—S证据理论对全局位姿进行评价,并给出单一传感器失效时的组合方案。试验结果验证了方法的有效性和鲁棒性,能满足实际定位的需要。     

Cardinality compensation method based on information-weighted consensus filter using data clustering for multi-target tracking

In this paper, a cardinality compensation method based on Information-weighted Consensus Filter(ICF) using data clustering is proposed in order to accurately estimate the cardinality of the Cardinalized Probability Hypothesis Density(CPHD) filter. Although the joint propagation of the intensity and the cardinality distribution in the CPHD filter process allows for more reliable estimation of the cardinality(target number) than the PHD filter, tracking loss may occur when noise and clutter are high in the measurements in a practical situation. For that reason, the cardinality compensation process is included in the CPHD filter, which is based on information fusion step using estimated cardinality obtained from the CPHD filter and measured cardinality obtained through data clustering. Here, the ICF is used for information fusion. To verify the performance of the proposed method, simulations were carried out and it was confirmed that the tracking performance of the multi-target was improved because the cardinality was estimated more accurately as compared to the existing techniques.     

基于模糊聚类的模糊神经网络在非定常气动力建模中的应用

建立了一种基于模糊聚类的模糊神经网络模型.该模型利用模糊聚类技术确定系统的模糊空间和模糊规则数,利用BP算法调整模糊神经网络的权系数.应用该模型对某飞机模型做俯仰-滚转耦合运动的非定常气动力进行了辨识.结果表明,基于模糊聚类的模糊神经网络计算速度快,辨识结果与实验结果符合较好.用模糊聚类技术可以解决模糊神经网络的结构辨识问题,基于模糊聚类的模糊神经网络可以很好地用于复杂机动飞行的非定常气动力建模.     

基于研制信息的测试性验证试验方案研究

针对现有测试性验证试验方案需要较大故障样本量的问题,提出了一种利用研制信息制定测试性验证试验方案的新方法。首先,在二项分布经典抽样模型的基础上,运用证据理论方法,研究了基于测试性试验数据、测试性预计结果和专家经验等研制信息的基本信任分配函数的构造方法,建立了基于融合不同种类研制信息的测试性验证试验方案,并确定了该方案的存在性,给出了方案的确定方法,最后开展了案例应用研究。由于充分考虑了研制信息,因此在确保有较好的验证效果的条件下,与传统的试验方案相比,该方法可以明显减少故障样本量,或在样本量保持不变的情况下有效降低双方风险。     

基于传递函数特征的机械结构故障诊断方法新进展

故障诊断对估计机械结构的健康状态非常重要,诊断方法一直以来也是研究的热点问题。与其他故障诊断方法相比,基于传递函数的故障诊断方法操作简单,提供的故障特征和指示因子也更加灵敏有效。根据所利用的线性传递函数或非线性传递函数的类型不同、基于传递函数的故障诊断方法目前大概有4类,即一般线性方法、一般非线性方法、基于广义频响函数（GFRF）方法和基于二阶输出频谱（SOOS）方法。本文旨在对各种基于传递函数的故障诊断方法研究进展进行梳理,通过带阻尼弹簧单元的多自由度模型解释各种方法的基本原理和操作流程,通过具体的仿卫星结构中螺栓松动故障实验比较各种方法的优缺点,探讨现有故障指示因子灵敏度的提高方式及现有方法在其他复杂机械结构中的运用前景。     

基于PNN-DS信息融合模型的目标识别方法

针对目标识别中常用BP—DS信息融合方法识别率低,运行速度慢,抗噪性差等问题,提出一种基于PNN网络和DS证据的信息融合方法。该方法不仅综合了证据理论在处理不确定信息方面的优点和神经网络在数值逼近上的长处,利用神经网络和证据推理算法获取了基本概率赋值,同时突出了PNN网络在处理多传感器信息的准确性和运算速度上都要优越于BP网络的特点。     

基于GARCH族优选模型的舰船器材消耗预测

器材消耗量预测是做好技术保障工作的前提和基础,受设备生命周期、任务类型、海洋环境及使用设备人员的技能水平等因素的影响,舰船器材消耗量序列会随着时间的推移而产生波动现象,丛集效应和高峰厚尾特征明显。根据 AIC(A-Information Criterion)准则,对 GARCH(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity)族模型进行比较优选,寻求一种更为合适的预测模型,实现对消耗量的准确预测。     

An adaptive-order particle filter for remaining useful life prediction of aviation piston pumps

An accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) not only contributes to an effective application of an aviation piston pump, but also meets the necessity of condition based maintenance (CBM). For the current RUL evaluation methods, a model-based method is inappropriate for the degradation process of an aviation piston pump due to difficulties of modeling, while a data-based method rarely presents high-accuracy prediction in a long period of time. In this work, an adaptive-order particle filter (AOPF) prognostic process is proposed aiming at improving long-term prediction accuracy of RUL by combining both kinds of methods. A dynamic model is initialized by a data-driven or empirical method. When a new observation comes, the prior state distribution is approximated by a current model. The order of the current model is updated adaptively by fusing the information of the observation. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for estimating the posterior probability density function of future states of the pump’s degradation. With updating the order number adaptively, the method presents a higher precision in contrast with those of traditional methods. In a case study, the proposed AOPF method is adopted to forecast the degradation status of an aviation piston pump with experimental return oil flow data, and the analytical results show the effectiveness of the proposed AOPF method.     

基于1-DISVM的聚类模型及直升机齿轮箱故障诊断应用

针对当前故障诊断中存在的训练样本少、知识难获取的问题,结合SVM小样本学习的特点,提出一种基于SVM的自学习聚类模型。通过改进无监督1-SVM算法上的不足,形成一种改进决策1-SVM(1-DISVM)算法,由此构建了多模式训练与分类算法,并设计出基于1-DISVM的自学习聚类模型。最后对其进行仿真验证,并应用于直升机齿轮箱的故障诊断,结果表明该方法能从少量样本中自学习输入模式的内在规律,自适应地对未知故障模式进行准确地分类识别。     

Evolution of airports from a network perspective——An analytical concept

Analyzing airports' role in global air transportation and monitoring their development over time provides an additional perspective on the dynamics of network evolution. In order to understand the different roles airports can play in the network an integrated and multi-dimensional approach is needed. Therefore, an approach to airport classification through hierarchi-cal clustering considering several parameters from network theory is presented in this paper. By applying a 29 year record of global flight data and calculating the conditional transition probabil-ities the results are displayed as an evolution graph similar to a discrete-time Markov chain. With this analytical concept the meaning of airports is analyzed from a network perspective and a new airport taxonomy is established. The presented methodology allows tracking the development of airports from certain categories into others over time. Results show that airports of equal classes run through similar stages of development with a limited number of alternatives, indicating clear evolutionary patterns. Apart from giving an overview of the results the paper illustrates the exact data-driven approach and suggests an evaluation scheme. The methodology can help the public and industry sector to make informed strategy decisions when it comes to air transportation infras-tructure.     

燃气轮机气路测量参数的模糊智能选择

针对燃气轮机气路性能的监测诊断需求,基于气路小偏差分析得到的影响系数矩阵,首先从测量参数选择的相关性要求出发,应用模糊聚类分析方法得到了要求数目的目标聚类;进一步从参数选择的敏感性等要求出发,通过模糊综合评价方法从多元素聚类中筛选出了各自的代表测量参数,从而实现了燃气轮机气路测量参数的模糊智能选择.实例表明:利用模糊聚类分析方法可直接实现测量参数的相关性选择,并可以方便可靠地根据目标要求选择合理的测量参数组合,利用模糊综合评价方法的测量参数的敏感性选择更为有效可靠.     

A multi-frame track-before-detect algorithm based on root label clustering for multiple targets

In this paper, a novel multi-frame track-before-detect algorithm is proposed, which is based on root label clustering to reduce the high computational complexity arising by observation area expansion and clutter/noise density increase. A criterion of track extrapolation is used to construct state transition set, root label is marked by state transition set to obtain the distribution information of multiple targets in measurement space, then measurement plots of multi-frame are divided into sever...     

智能化雷达对抗情报处理技术研究

随着雷达技术的迅猛发展,雷达信号的密度、复杂程度都大幅度提高,这就增加了雷达信号的不确定性因素。本文讨论了粗糙集理论、模糊集理论、证据理论和可能性理论等人工智能技术在雷达对抗情报处理中的应用。对雷达辐射源的型号和工作模式识别、雷达网信息以及所属平台信息的推理技术进行了探索研究,给出了研究建议。     

用自适应蚁群算法求解集中网站的WEB搜索优化策略

如何提高web信息搜索的效率,改善搜索的性能,是信息检索领域一个重要的研究课题。首先利用自适应蚁群算法求得针对特定类别的最小集中网站集,再通过网页聚类,找到能获得最完全而准确信息的网页序列,从而提高web搜索的速度和准确率。     

Advanced Data Management Experiment

This project is to demonstrate and refine a computer programming concept known as Generalized Data Management as exemplified by the Advanced Data Management (ADAM) System developed by the MITRE Corporation for the Electronic Systems Division/MITRE Systems Design Laboratory. ADAM is designed to provide generalized routines for functions common to a large class of command and management problems. Although earlier implementations of the Generalized Data Management concept have been demonstrated, ADAM has not been demonstrated in an operational application. The Air Force Logistics Command has provided an application (Category I and IIR Consumption Item Requirements Computation System) with which to test ADAM. The Requirements System provides Logistics Command managers with information concerning stock items to buy, procurement contracts to terminate, items to repair, and budgets. ADAM implementation will provide an on-line real-time information system; the present Requirements System operates in a non-real-time batch processing mode. The usefulness of providing an on-line system, which can be easily modified, will be evaluated.