Forecasting space markets

Space Policy is here reprinting edited extracts from two reports — one French, one American — which aim to forecast the market for space applications and launch services over the next 10 and 15 years respectively. Euroconsult 1986 edition of The World Space Industry Survey: Ten-Year Outlook gives a country-by-country analysis of policies and programmes; an evaluation of markets for space applications and a forecast of the market for launch systems. The Report on the 1986 Outside Users Payload Model, prepared by Battelle, Columbus Division, for the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, provides an estimate of demand for launch services for payloads in a range of mission categories flown by countries outside the Soviet bloc. Using different starting points and methodologies, the two reports nevertheless draw convincingly similar conclusions.     

Taking stock of Europe's developing space policy: from the European space policy workshops to the European space policy forum

A series of workshops designed to make up for the lack of high-level, informal discussion of European space policy has been running—with a gap during formulation of the EC Green/White Paper on this subject—since September 2002. In view of the progress made in establishing a coherent European strategy, and of various other recent events, such as China's entry into the human spaceflight field, the organizers intend not only to continue the series but also to establish a more permanent, research-oriented European Space Policy Foundation (ESPF). Following a report on the proceedings of the third workshop, held in September 2003, which covered developing an overall European policy, new applications (Galileo and GMES) and human spaceflight, the authors set out a proposal for an ESPF and present the six major research themes it would aim to investigate.     

Shaping a legal framework for the commercial use of outer space: recommendations and conclusions from Project 2001

Private and commercial activity in outer space still poses challenges to space law and policy. Within ‘Project 2001’—a legal research project by the University of Cologne's Institute of Air and Space Law and the German Aerospace Center (DLR)—six international expert working groups examined international and national laws, in order to identify gaps and, where necessary, propose improvements to the present legal framework for private space activities. The results were presented and discussed at an international colloquium in May 2001 in Cologne, Germany, where final conclusions have been drawn. This report presents a summary of the project's work and main conclusions, which are documented in full in a comprehensive book to be published in May 2002.     

Improved space safety for astronauts

The 2003 Columbia accident demonstrated that spaceflight remains a risky and dangerous human endeavor, yet there have been few ‘unofficial’ investigations into astronaut safety. This report summarizes the findings of one such study by George Washington University's Space & Advanced Communications Research Institute—e.g. that simplicity of design may be better than complexity, that cargo missions would be better carried out robotically and that all new space transportation systems should be developed to common international standards—before examining ways that international cooperation can advance the cause of space safety. In establishing future space safety standards input from a wider range of participants (industry, universities and private research institutes, as well as space agencies, etc.) will need to be sought.     

Legal consequences of a SETI detection

If a detection of ETI takes place, this will in all probability be the result of either: (a) detecting and recognising a signal or other emission of ETI; or (b) the finding of an alien artifact (for instance on the Moon or other Celestial Body of our Solar System); or (c) the highly improbable event of an actual encounter. First and foremost, legal consequences regarding any of these contingencies will result from immediate consultations between nations on Earth. Understandings, memoranda and even agreements might be proposed and/or concluded. Such results within the field of terrestrial law will surely be a new branch of International Law, and particularly of International Space Law. At the same time, terrestrial nations will have to realize that any ETI will be self-determined intelligent individualities or organizations who might have their own understanding of “rules of behaviour” and thus, be legal subjects. Whether one calls such rules “law” or not: if two intelligent races—both of which have specific rules of behaviour—come into contact with each other, the basic understanding of such mutual rules will lead to a kind of “code of conduct”. This might be the starting point for a kind of Law—Metalaw—between different races in the Universe.     

Europe's space plans and opportunities for cooperation

This is a slightly abridged and edited version of the welcoming speech made by European Commission Vice-President Günter Verheugen at the ‘Winning through co-operation: sharing the benefits of space’ conference held in Brussels on 17–18 February 2005 as part of European Space Week. The importance of space for Europe across many areas—now explicitly acknowledged by the European Commission—is highlighted. Future initiatives are discussed and the Union's approach to international cooperation is outlined. It was hoped that the conference would provide an opportunity for participants to identify the best opportunities for partnership in space.     

Some comments on the ESA/EU space strategy

Not only have the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Union Commission succeeded in producing a joint space strategy within the time set for it, they have created a substantial and worthwhile document which recognises the importance of space for Europe and acknowledges that ESA—not national agencies—is the right body for the conduct of Europe's space efforts. Nevertheless, the strategy's lack of any government financial commitment is a worry— Public–Private Partnerships will never be enough—as is its failure to include any thought for the long term, and in particular manned flight. This critique of the strategy argues for more government spending on space and for greater long-term vision.     

25 YEARS OF SPACE AT SURREY—PIONEERING MODERN MICROSATELLITES

Space at Surrey has developed over 25 years from very modest beginnings in 1974 to an international space centre by 1998. It has pioneered small satellites and succeeded in launching 14 low cost but sophisticated microsatellites over the course of two decades. In the 1990s, small satellites have become fashionable—but this was not always so! This paper describes the 25 years history of “Space at Surrey”.     

RLV economics: fiscal evaluation of NASA''s reusable launch vehicle effort

The US RLV program aims to stimulate commercial development of a next-generation heavy-lift launcher and lower launch costs by one order of magnitude from the Space Shuttle. This paper discusses the incentives needed to encourage private investment — income tax relief, investment mitigation, financing assistance — in the venture and uses a specifically developed case study model to evaluate their effectiveness. It finds that an R&D tax credit would be the most practical incentive. Directions for future work are provided.     

The biosphere 2 project and its potential role in assisting space exploration

Space Biospheres Ventures is developing technologies for its Biosphere 2 project — a 3 acre materially closed ecological system with human habitat, intensive agriculture and five wilderness biomes — and other life-support testbeds for space habitats in microgravity and the Moon and Mars, as well as for ecological research pertinent to the biosphere of Earth. These include soil bed reactors for air purification and biomass production; aquatic waste processing systems; real-time analytic systems; and computer systems of control and management. A space policy pursuing joint Earth and ‘space biospheres’ objectives and implications is discussed.     

Recent and future activities of the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs

This article discusses the development, and the current and future work, of the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs. The Office is active both as a source of information, education and training on space and as a secretariat to COPUOS and its Subcommittees; it also performs a role in the monitoring and implementation of various space-related legal treaties. Presently—and as part of the drive to use space to improve life on Earth—the bulk of its work is guided by the Vienna Declaration produced at UNISPACE III.     

Space industry-10-year survey

Space Policy reprints here the Executive Summary of a report by Euroconsult: World Space Industry Survey: Ten Year Outlook, 1989/90 Edition. It summarizes worldwide trends in space activity as they appeared at the end of 1989 and analyses them in terms of their economic, financial and industrial aspects. The analyses are centred on the development of space applications and growth prospects in the corresponding markets for the upcoming 10-year period.     

The paradoxes of space

‘Space — the commercial opportunities’, an international business strategy conference, London, UK, 31 October–1 November 1984, organized by Online Conferences Ltd, Pinner Green House, Ash Hill Drive, Pinner HA5 2AE, Middlesex, UK.     

Space industry — 10-year survey

Space Policy reprints here the Executive Summary of a report by Euroconsult: World Space Industry Survey: Ten-Year Outlook. It summarizes worldwide trends in space activity as they appeared at the beginning of 1988 and analyses them in terms of their economic, financial and industrial aspects. The analyses are centred on the development of space applications and growth prospects in the corresponding markets for the upcoming 10-year period.     

Surreal estate: addressing the issue of ‘Immovable Property Rights on the Moon’

At a time when scientific and commercial interest in the Moon is being reinvigorated it is becoming fashionable for ordinary individuals to ‘buy’ plots on the lunar surface, with the ‘vendors’ arguing that an absence of specific prohibition of individual private activity in space makes such action legal. It is therefore time for the legal community to address this situation by investigating just how legal such activity is—and bringing their findings to the attention of governments. This can be done through an examination of the relationship between national law and international space law, of the provisions of international space law—especially Article 2 of the Outer Space Treaty—and by answering any claims to private ownership of immovable property. Aside from the fact that individuals appear to be being duped, the pursuit of property claims on the Moon could impede future activities aimed at benefiting society.     

Advantages and disadvantages of prizes in a portfolio of financial incentives for space activities

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has proposed to use financial prizes to encourage innovation in space technology. Public debate about the use of prizes questions their effectiveness, the role of government compared with the private sector in administering prizes—for example, the Ansari X-Prize for human suborbital flight was privately funded and administered—and other issues that are likely to influence the success of this approach.     

New roles in space for the 21st century: a Uruguayan view

In the economic and social circumstances of the 21st century globalized world, there is a need to rethink the traditional roles and positions in space of international intergovernmental organizations, states, both developed and developing, and humankind itself. Uruguay provides an example of a non-typical country that has managed to carve an important niche for itself in the field of space law. Although globalization is an irreversible phenomenon, which has had a devastating effect on the weakest countries, following the attacks of 11 September 2001 insecurity has become globalized for everyone. From the point of view of a state such as Uruguay, this crisis must be looked upon as an opportunity to renew and inspire intelligence, education and culture. In this way—and by continuing to argue for a global space organization—it can contribute to making the Space Age an era of global and planetary solidarity for the benefit of humankind.     

Stepping stones to the future: Achieving a sustainable lunar outpost

The current emphasis in the US and internationally on lunar robotic missions is generally viewed as a precursor to possible future human missions to the Moon. As initially framed, the implementation of high level policies such as the US Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) might have been limited to either human lunar sortie missions, or to the testing at the Moon of concepts-of-operations and systems for eventual human missions to Mars [White House, Vision for Space Exploration, Washington, DC, 14 January, 2004. [1]]. However, recently announced (December 2006) US goals go much further: these plans now place at the center of future US—and perhaps international—human spaceflight activities a long-term commitment to an outpost on the Moon.Based on available documents, a human lunar outpost could be emplaced as early as the 2020–2025 timeframe, and would involve numerous novel systems, new technologies and unique operations requirements. As such, substantial investments in research and development (R&D) will be necessary prior to, during, and following the deployment of such an outpost. It seems possible that such an outpost will be an international endeavor, not just the undertaking of a single country—and the US has actively courted partners in the VSE. However, critical questions remain concerning an international lunar outpost. What might such an outpost accomplish? To what extent will “sustainability” be built into the outpost? And, most importantly, what will be the outpost's life cycle cost (LCC)?This paper will explore these issues with a view toward informing key policy and program decisions that must be made during the next several years. The paper will (1) describe a high-level analytical model of a modest lunar outpost, (2) examine (using this model) the parametric characteristics of the outpost in terms of the three critical questions indicated above, and (3) present rough estimates of the relationships of outpost goals and “sustainability” to LCC. The paper will also consider possible outpost requirements for near-term investments in enabling research in light of experiences in past advanced technology programs.     

US–Russian cooperation in human spaceflight: assessing the impacts

How far the broad security, political and economic goals behind the USA's invitation to Russia to participate in the International Space Station have been achieved is assessed in this synthesis of the views of a range of experts in Russian affairs and US foreign and national security policy. The article covers the impacts of cooperation on the Russian aerospace industrial base, on nonproliferation issues and on overall US–Russian relations. Various themes are identified—such as Russian ambivalence over embracing Western norms—and while the experts agreed on certain subjects, there was no overall unanimity.     

The Space Policy Summit

A Space Policy Summit of high-level individuals from government, industry and international organizations was held in Houston, TX immediately before the World Space Congress in October 2002. It provided a forum for the discussion of long-term space policy issues in the fields of commercial space exploitation, public good applications and space exploration. This report presents the background to the decision to hold such a summit, and discusses selected issues and recommendations.