The Influence of Tilt Angle and Magnetic Field Variations on Cosmic ray Modulation

The maximum inclination of the heliospheric current sheet (the tilt angle) and the magnitude B of the heliospheric magnetic field are often used to characterize cosmic ray (CR) modulation. The relevance of B is likely to be the coupling of the interplanetary diffusion coefficients K to the field magnitude in a relation K∝B ⁻ⁿ. In this paper we study the coupled influence of tilt angle and magnetic field variations on the modulation of cosmic rays at neutron monitor energies for the 1974 mini-cycle and for the onsets of solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. It is suggested that for A>0 polarity epochs, the sensitivity of the CR response to variations in B is partly controlled by the size of the tilt angle, α. The onsets of cycles 21 and 23 exhibit differences, related to phase differences in these parameters. A simple model is used to predict the CR response to variations in B. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmic-Ray Modulation in the Heliosphere A Phenomenological Study

The heliospheric cosmic-ray network–Pioneer 10/11, Voyager 1/2, Ulysses and IMP 8 have provided detailed observations of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays over a period of time that now exceeds 25 years and extends to heliocentric distances beyond 65 AU. These data, when compared over consecutive 11 year solar cycles, clearly establishes the existence of a 22-year cosmic ray modulation cycle that is dominated by the 11-year solar activity cycle but is strongly influenced by gradient and curvature drifts in association with the tilt of the heliospheric neutral current sheet as well as the mediation of the enhanced magnetic turbulence above the solar poles. Over successive solar minima these effects manifest themselves in the remarkable differences in the energetic particle time histories, in the magnitude and sign of the radial and latitudinal intensity gradients and in the changes in the energy spectra of anomalous cosmic rays as a function of heliocentric distance.From solar minimum to solar maximum the long term modulation is principally a combination of two solar related phenomena, the cumulative effect of long-lived global merged interaction regions (GMIRs) and gradient and curvature drifts in the interplanetary magnetic field. For the periods when positive ions flow in over the solar poles and out along the heliospheric current sheet, the modulation of ions is dominated by GMIRs. When this flow pattern is reversed it is found that drifts are an important but not dominant factor for cosmic ray modulation with the current sheet related drift effects decreasing with increasing rigidity R, heliolatitude and heliocentric distance. Over a single solar cycle these conclusions are confirmed at 1 AU by comparing the relative modulation of cosmic-ray helium nuclei and electrons.     

Modulation Near Solar Maximum at High Solar Latitudes Observations From the Ulysses Cospin High Energy Telescope

The three-dimensional structure of the solar maximum modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere can be studied for the first time by comparing observations from Ulysses at high solar latitudes to those from in-ecliptic spacecraft, such as IMP-8. Observations through mid-2000 show that changes in modulation remain well correlated at Earth and Ulysses up to latitudes of ∼60° south. The observed changes seem to be best correlated with changes in the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet. The spectral index of the proton spectra at energies <100 MeV in the ecliptic and at high latitudes remain roughly consistent with the T ⁺¹ spectrum expected from modulation models, while the spectral index of the helium spectrum at both locations has changed smoothly from the flat or even negative index spectra characteristic of anomalous component fluxes toward the T ⁺¹ galactic spectrum with increasing modulation. Intensities near the equator and at high latitude remain nearly equal, and latitudinal gradients for nucleonic cosmic rays thus remain small (<1% deg⁻¹) at solar maximum. In the most recent data fluxes of protons and helium with energies less than ∼100 MeV nucl⁻¹ measured by Ulysses are smaller than those measured at IMP-8, suggesting that the gradients may have switched to become negative toward the poles even before a clear reversal of polarity for the solar magnetic dipole has been completed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

High energy cosmic ray nuclei results on Ulysses: 1. Mission overview

The cosmic ray flux observed with the Kiel Electron Telescope on board the ULYSSES spaceprobe varies with solar activity as well as with heliospheric position. Determination of the latitudinal gradients requires a careful analysis of the influences of the current sheet tilt angle, the number of major solar flares, interplanetary shocks and interaction regions evolving in the expanding solar wind. In this paper we concentrate on nuclei with rigidity above 1 GV. We discuss the effects of the variable solar activity in the declining phase of the present solar cycle and the variation with radial distance as a basis for separating latitudinal effects. We show that during this phase of the solar cycle modulation of GV nuclei is ordered by temporal evolution, radial distance and negligible latitudinal effects even at latitudes between 30° and 50° South.     

Polar rain entry of galactic electrons into the inner heliosphere?

The understanding of the relative intensity variations in cosmic ray ions and electrons with respect to solar modulation is a grand challenge for cosmic ray modulation theory. Although effects of the heliospheric neutral sheet, gradient-curvature drifts, and merged interaction regions provide qualitative explanations for observed solar cycle variations of high energy protons and ions, these effects do not account for the anomalously high intensities of high energy galactic electrons at 22-year intervals of the solar magnetic solar cycle. From the similar modulation responses of protons and heavy ions it does not appear that cosmic ray pressure effects, dominated by protons, can account for the chargesign asymmetry of cosmic ray modulation. External factors including modulation in the heliosheath and polar linkage to the interstellar magnetic field are examined as potential causes of symmetry breaking for electron modulation with respect to the solar magnetic polarity at solar minimum.     

Modulation of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere From Solar Minimum to Maximum: a Theoretical Perspective

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere seems to be dominated by four major mechanisms: convection, diffusion, drifts (gradient, curvature and current sheet), and adiabatic energy losses. In this regard the global structure of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), the current sheet (HCS), and that of the heliosphere itself play major roles. Individually, the four mechanisms are well understood, but in combination, the complexity increases significantly especially their evolvement with time - as a function of solar activity. The Ulysses observations contributed significantly during the past solar minimum modulation period to establish the relative importance of these major mechanisms, leading to renewed interest in developing more sophisticated numerical models, and in the underlying physics, e.g., what determines the diffusion tensor. With increased solar activity, the relative contributions of the mentioned mechanisms change, but how they change and what causes these changes over an 11-year solar cycle is not well understood. It can therefore be expected that present and forthcoming observations during solar maximum activity will again produce very important insights into the causes of long-term modulation. In this paper the basic theory of solar modulation is reviewed for galactic cosmic rays. The influence of the Ulysses observations on the development of the basic theory and numerical models are discussed, especially those that have challenged the theory and models. Model-based predictions are shown for what might be encountered during the next solar minimum. Lastly, modulation theory and modelling are discussed for periods of maximum solar activity when a global reorganization of the HMF, and the HCS, occurs. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.     

Cosmic Rays in the Inner Heliosphere: Insights from Observations, Theory and Models

The global modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the inner heliosphere is determined by four major mechanisms: convection, diffusion, particle drifts (gradient, curvature and current sheet drifts), and adiabatic energy losses. When these processes combine to produce modulation, the complexity increases significantly especially when one wants to describe how they evolve spatially in all three dimensions throughout the heliosphere, and with time, as a function of solar activity over at least 22 years. In this context also the global structure and features of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field, the wavy current sheet, and of the heliosphere and its interface with the interstellar medium, play important roles. Space missions have contributed significantly to our knowledge during the past decade. In the inner heliosphere, Ulysses and several other missions have contributed to establish the relative importance of these major mechanisms, leading to renewed interest in developing more sophisticated theories and numerical models to explain these observations, and to understand the underlying physics that determines galactic cosmic ray modulation at Earth. An overview is given of some of the observational and modeling highlights over the past decade.     

Corotating Interaction Regions at High Latitudes

Ulysses observed a stable strong CIR from early 1992 through 1994 during its first journey into the southern hemisphere. After the rapid latitude scan in early 1995, Ulysses observed a weaker CIR from early 1996 to mid-1997 in the northern hemisphere as it traveled back to the ecliptic at the orbit of Jupiter. These two CIRs are the observational basis of the investigation into the latitudinal structure of CIRs. The first CIR was caused by an extension of the northern coronal hole into the southern hemisphere during declining solar activity, whereas the second CIR near solar minimum activity was caused by small warps in the streamer belt. The latitudinal structure is described through the presentation of three 26-day periods during the southern CIR. The first at ∼24°S shows the full plasma interaction region including fast and slow wind streams, the compressed shocked flows with embedded stream interface and heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and the forward and reverse shocks with associated accelerated ions and electrons. The second at 40°S exhibits only the reverse shock, accelerated particles, and the 26-day modulation of cosmic rays. The third at 60°S shows only the accelerated particles and modulated cosmic rays. The possible mechanisms for the access of the accelerated particles and the CIR-modulated cosmic rays to high latitudes above the plasma interaction region are presented. They include direct magnetic field connection across latitude due to stochastic field line weaving or to systematic weaving caused by solar differential rotation combined with non-radial expansion of the fast wind. Another possible mechanism is particle diffusion across the average magnetic field, which includes stochastic field line weaving. A constraint on connection to a distant portion of the CIR is energy loss in the solar wind, which is substantial for the relatively slow-moving accelerated ions. Finally, the weaker northern CIR is compared with the southern CIR. It is weak because the inclination of the streamer belt and HCS decreased as Ulysses traveled to lower latitudes so that the spacecraft remained at about the maximum latitudinal extent of the HCS. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The modulation of cosmic rays in the high latitude heliosphere: A computer simulation

Modulation models based on the numerical solution of Parker's transport equation for galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere make clear predictions about modulation in the high latitude heliosphere. However, for these predictions certain assumptions have to be made, for example, what the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) looks like above the solar poles and what the spatial dependence of the diffusion coefficients are. For this presentation the general predictions of a standard drift model for the modulation of cosmic rays in the high latitude heliosphere, in particular predictions for the Ulysses trajectory, are discussed and critically reviewed. Preliminary results from Ulysses show a significant increase in the solar wind speed towards higher latitudes. The effects of this strong latitudinal dependence together with different modifications of the HMF at these high latitudes on the apparently too large diffusion and drifts predicted by current models are also shown.     

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Rays at 1 AU During the Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU at solar minimum generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities such as those measured by neutron monitors, albeit with differences between solar polarity cycles. The unusual cycle 23/24 solar minimum was long-lasting with very low sunspot numbers and significantly reduced interplanetary magnetic field strength and solar wind dynamic pressure and turbulence, but also featured a heliospheric current sheet tilt that remained high for an extended period. Peak ACR intensities did not recover to the maximum values reached during the last two A>0 solar minima and just barely reached the last A<0 levels. However, GCR intensities in 2009 (neutron monitor rates and also at ～200 MeV/nucleon) were the highest recorded during the last 50 years, indicating their intensities were not as heavily modulated during their transport from the outer heliosphere. This unexpected difference in the behavior of ACRs and GCRs remains unexplained, but suggests that either the ACR source intensity may have weakened since the last A<0 epoch, or perhaps that ACR intensities at 1 AU in the ecliptic may be more sensitive than GCRs to the higher tilt angle. This seems plausible if the ACR source intensity is greater at low latitudes during A<0 cycles, while the GCR distribution at the heliospheric boundary is more uniform in latitude. Shortly after an abrupt increase in the current sheet tilt angle in late 2009, both ACR and GCR intensities showed dramatic decreases, marking the end of solar minimum modulation conditions for this cycle.     

Transient Effects and Disturbed Conditions

In the present phase of the solar cycle no big transients leading to strong modulation had been observed after 1991. Apart from a few minor disturbances cosmic rays were still recovering to a new intensity maximum. It was suggested, therefore, that existing literature from previous cycles should be critically reviewed. The scene was set by the introductory papers on— phenomenology of cosmic ray modulation in successive solar cycles throughout the heliosphere— the present state of models for long term modulation and their shortcomings— the relation between cosmic ray variations and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (the CR-B-relation)— charge dependent effects.In the discussions, the study of propagating diffusive disturbances and the CR-B-relation played a central role. The difference was stressed between isolated transient disturbances in the inner solar system (Forbush decreases), and the long lasting, step-like decreases caused by merged interaction regions in the outer heliosphere. The recovery rates following the step-like decreases vary with the phase in the 22-year solar cycle. In some cases this requires a modification of existing drift models. In the outer heliosphere, the CR-B-relation leads to the result 1/ between the diffusion coefficient and the field magnitude . This simple result is a challenge for theoreticians to derive the perpendicular diffusion coefficient fromfirst principles. The three articles in this report essentially follow the list of open points and arguments just presented.The article "Observations and Simple Models" is organised around the model of a propagating diffusive barrier, its application to Forbush effects in the inner heliosphere and to decreases caused by merged interaction regions in the outer heliosphere. Acomparison of observed Forbush decreases with model predictions requires a careful separation of the two steps related to the turbulent region behind the shock front and the closed magnetic field regions of the ejecta (the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections). It is shown that models for propagating disturbances can be used to derive values of the diffusion coefficients phenomenologically, not only during the disturbance, but also in the ambient medium.The "Modeling of Merged Interaction Regions" summarizes the dynamic and time-dependent process of cosmic ray modulation in the heliosphere. Numerical models with only a time-dependent neutral sheet prove to be successful when moderate to low solar activity occurs but fail to describe large and discrete steps in modulated cosmic rays when solar activity is high. To explain this feature of heliospheric modulation, the concept of global merged interaction regions is required. The com-bination of gradient, curvature and neutral sheet drifts with these global merged interaction regions has so far been the most successful approach in explaining the 11-year and 22-year cycles in the long-term modulation of cosmic rays.The "Remarks on the Diffusion Tensor in the Heliosphere" describe available theories of perpen-dicular diffusion and drift, and discuss their relevance to cosmic rays in the heliosphere. In addition, the information about diffusion coefficients and spatial gradients obtained from the analysis of steady state anisotropies at neutron monitor energies is summarized. These topics are intimately related to the other two articles. They are also part of the general discussion about the "Diffusion Tensor throughout the Heliosphere" which played an important role in all working groups.     

Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays at Solar Minimum

Cosmic ray particles respond to the heliospheric magnetic field in the expanding solar wind and its turbulence and therefore provide a unique probe for conditions in the changing heliosphere. During the last four years, concentrated around the solar minimum period of solar cycle 22, the exploration of the solar polar regions by the joint ESA/NASA mission Ulysses revealed the three-dimensional behavior of cosmic rays in the inner and middle heliosphere. Also during the last decades, the Pioneer and Voyager missions have greatly expanded our understanding of the structure and extent of the outer heliosphere. Simultaneously, numerical models describing the propagation of galactic cosmic rays are becoming sophisticated tools for interpreting and understanding these observations. We give an introduction to the subject of the modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere during solar minimum. The modulation effects on cosmic rays of corotating interaction regions and their successors in the outer heliosphere are discussed in more detail by Gazis, McDonald et al. (1999) and McKibben, Jokipii et al. (1999) in this volume. Cosmic-ray observations from the Ulysses spacecraft at high heliographic latitudes are also described extensively in this volume by Kunow, Lee et al. (1999). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Onset of Long Term Modulation in the Heliosphere in Cycle 23

The combination of Voyager 1 (77.9 AU, 34.4° N) and Voyager 2 (61.2 AU, 24.5° S) at moderate heliolatitudes in the distant heliosphere and Ulysses with its unique latitudinal surveys in the inner heliosphere along with IMP 8 and other satellites at 1 AU constitutes a network of observatories that are ideally suited to study cosmic rays over the solar minimum of cycle 22 and the onset of solar activity and the long term cosmic ray modulation of cycle 23. Through 2000.7 there have been three well-defined step decreases in the cosmic ray intensity at 1 AU with the cumulative effect being in good agreement with the net decrease in cycle 21 at a comparable time in the solar cycle. Over this period the intensity changes at Ulysses are similar to those at 1 AU. In the distant heliosphere the initial decreases appear to be smaller than those at 1 AU. However the full effects of the interplanetary disturbances producing the most recent and largest step decrease in the inner heliosphere have not yet reached V-2. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Planar Structuring of Magnetic Fields at Solar Minimum and Maximum

Planar magnetic structures are regions of the solar wind where the magnetic field is oriented parallel to a fixed plane for several hours or more. Discontinuities in the field direction may be encountered during these periods, their surfaces also being parallel to the plane containing the field. A survey of Ulysses magnetic field data returned during 1990–1998 revealed that the solar wind's magnetic field was planar in nature for at least 9% of the time. A survey is presented of planar magnetic structures encountered by Ulysses during two periods when the spacecraft was travelling south from the ecliptic to high southern heliographic latitudes, in 1992–1994 and 1998–2000. The characteristics of the planar magnetic structures encountered during these times of declining and near-maximum solar activity are described, as well as their apparent relationships with interplanetary shocks and heliospheric current sheet crossings. Planar magnetic structures are more common near solar maximum. However, the proportion of structures coinciding with HCS crossings and shocks seems relatively constant. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Muon Observations

Muon observations are complementary to neutron monitor observations but there are some important differences in the two techniques. Unlike neutron monitors, muon telescope systems use coincidence techniques to obtain directional information about the arriving particle. Neutron monitor observations require simple corrections for pressure variations to compensate for the varying mass of atmospheric absorber over a site. In contrast, muon observations require additional corrections for the positive and negative temperature effects. Muon observations commenced many years before neutron monitors were constructed. Thus, muon data over a larger number of solar cycles is available to study solar modulation on anisotropies and other cosmic ray variations. The solar diurnal and semi-diurnal variations have been studied for many years. Using the techniques of Bieber and Chen it has been possible to derive the radial gradient, parallel mean-free path and symmetric latitude gradient of cosmic rays for rigidities <200 GV. The radial gradient varies with the 11-year solar activity cycle whereas the parallel mean-free path appears to vary with the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The symmetric latitudinal gradient reverses at each solar polarity reversal. These results are in general agreement with predictions from modulation models. In undertaking these analyses the ratio of the parallel to perpendicular mean-free path must be assumed. There is strong contention in the literature about the correct value to employ but the results are sufficiently robust for this to be, at most, a minor problem. An asymmetric latitude gradient of highly variable nature has been found. These observations do not support current modulation models. Our view of the sidereal variation has undergone a revolution in recent times. Nagashima, Fujimoto and Jacklyn proposed a narrow Tail-In source anisotropy and separate Loss-Cone anisotropy as being responsible for the observed variations. A new analysis technique, more amenable to such structures, was developed by Japanese and Australian researchers. They confirmed the existence of the two anisotropies. However, they found that the Tail-In anisotropy is asymmetric and that both anisotropies had different positions from the prediction. Most 27-day modulations are observed at neutron monitor rigidities but not so readily at higher rigidities. An exception to this is the Isotropic Intensity Wave modulation observed in the early 1980s and again in 1991. This modulation is very strongly related to the heliospheric sector structure and implies a significantly different cosmic ray density on either side of the neutral sheet. The interpretation of most cosmic ray modulation phenomena requires good latitude coverage in both hemispheres. The closure of many muon observatories is a matter of concern. In the northern hemisphere a few new instruments are being constructed and spatial coverage is barely adequate. In the southern hemisphere the situation is far worse with the possibility that within a decade only the Mawson observatory in Antarctica will still be in operation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Large Scale Modulation: View From the Earth

The current knowledge and ideas, obtained from groundlevel observations and concerning the solar modulation of cosmic rays, are reviewed. The following topics are discussed: observations of the cosmic ray modulation at the Earth and main characteristics of the accumulated experimental data; manifestations of the solar magnetic cycle in cosmic rays; the effect of hysteresis and its relation to the size of the heliosphere; the rigidity spectrum of long-term cosmic ray variations; the influence of the sporadic effects on long-term modulation; long-term variations of cosmic ray anisotropy and gradients; the place of groundlevel observations in current studies of cosmic ray modulation and their future prospects. Particular consideration is given to the correlation of long-term cosmic ray variations with different solar-heliospheric parameters, and to empirical models of cosmic ray modulation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Evolution of the Anomalous Cosmic Ray Oxygen Spectra From 1995 to 1998: Ulysses Observations

Moraal and Steenberg (1999), showed that the peak energy in the anomalous cosmic ray spectra is independent of the radial distance up to a few AU away from the termination shock but dependent on the solar wind speed, the radius of the termination shock and the scattering strength. In this paper we will discuss the variation of the cosmic ray oxygen energy spectrum as measured by the Ulysses EPAC and the COSPIN/LET on board Ulysses. We found that the peak energy decreased from ∼5 MeV nucl⁻¹, when Ulysses was at high northern heliographic latitudes embedded in the fast solar wind to ∼3.5 MeV n⁻¹, in the streamer belt. The shift towards lower energy might also be caused by changing modulation although Voyager measurements indicate no variation of the ACR Oxygen spectrum at ∼60 AU. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Rigidity Dependence and Time Response of Cosmic Rays to the Modulation Steps in the Rising Part of Solar Cycle 23. Cospin/ket Results

Previous work on the latitudinal gradient and on the amplitude of the recurrent cosmic ray decreases, has shown that their magnitude does not decrease monotonically with the particle rigidity, but it presents a broad maximun around 1–2 GV. We have extended this analysis to study the behaviour of cosmic-ray particles during the modulation steps in the rising part of the solar activity of the present Solar cycle. We found that the ‘depth’ of the modulation step decreases monotonically with increasing rigidity and that the least energetic particles are the last to reach their minimum intensity value. We also considered in this analysis electrons of equal rigidity to study the influence of the charge sign on the particle behaviour during the modulation steps. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.