Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000

Within the framework of the Space Weather program, 25-year data sets for solar X-ray observations, measurements of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the solar wind, and D _st index variations are analyzed to reveal the factors that have had the greatest influence on the development of magnetospheric storms. The correlation between solar flares and magnetic storms practically does not exceed a level of correlation for random processes. In particular, no relation was found between the importance of solar flares and the minimum of the D _st index for storms that could be connected with considered flares by their time delay. The coronal mass ejections (CME; data on these phenomena cover a small part of the interval) result in storms with D _st < –60 nT only in half of the cases. The most geoeffective interplanetary phenomena are the magnetic clouds (MC), which many believe to be interplanetary manifestations of CMEs, and compressions in the region of interaction of slow and fast streams in the solar wind (the so-called Corotating Interaction Region, CIR). They correspond to about two-thirds of all observed magnetic storms. For storms with –100 < D _st < –60 nT, the frequencies of storms from MC and CIR being approximately equal. For strong storms with D _st < – 100 nT, the fraction of storms from MC is considerably higher. The problems of reliable prediction of geomagnetic disturbances from observations of the Sun and conditions in interplanetary space are discussed.     

Space weather forecast: Principles of the construction and boundaries of the implementation (experience of three cycles)

All significant short-term disturbances of the near-Earth space are caused exclusively by solar flare events and regions in the solar corona with the magnetic field open into the interplanetary space (coronal holes). Flare processes occur as a consequence of the interactions of new emerging magnetic fluxes within (flares) and outside (filament ejections) the active regions with already existing magnetic fields. The observation of emerging new magnetic fluxes and the estimate of their magnitude and the emerging rate allow one to forecast solar flares and filament ejections and estimate their degree of geoeffectiveness. The main agents that visualize the propagation of disturbance from solar flares and filaments in the solar corona and the interplanetary space are coronal mass ejections, the characteristics of which ideally allow one to estimate the possible disturbance of the geomagnetic field, the possible growth of high-energy charged particle fluxes in the near-Earth space. For successful forecast of geoeffective active phenomena on the Sun and their consequences in the near-Earth space, it is necessary to know the situation on the Sun for the last 3 days taking into account the development and characteristics of the current cycle and the epoch of solar activity.     

Features of solar wind streams on June 21–28, 2015 as a result of interactions between coronal mass ejections and recurrent streams from coronal holes

Coronal sources and parameters of solar wind streams during a strong and prolonged geomagnetic disturbance in June 2015 have been considered. Сorrespondence between coronal sources and solar wind streams at 1 AU has been determined using an analysis of solar images, catalogs of flares and coronal mass ejections, solar wind parameters including the ionic composition. The sources of disturbances in the considered period were a sequence of five coronal mass ejections that propagated along the recurrent solar wind streams from coronal holes. The observed differences from typical in magnetic and kinetic parameters of solar wind streams have been associated with the interactions of different types of solar wind. The ionic composition has proved to be a good additional marker for highlighting components in a mixture of solar wind streams, which can be associated with different coronal sources.     

Large and sharp changes of solar wind dynamic pressure and disturbances of the magnetospheric magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit caused by these variations

The large and sharp changes of solar wind dynamic pressure, found from the INTERBALL-1 satellite and WIND spacecraft data, are compared with simultaneous magnetic field disturbances in the magnetosphere measured by geosynchronous GOES-8, GOES-9, and GOES-10 satellites. For this purpose, about 200 events in the solar wind, associated with sharp changes of the dynamic pressure, were selected from the INTERBALL-1 satellite data obtained during 1996–1999. The large and sharp changes of the solar wind dynamic pressure were shown to result in rapid variations of the magnetic field strength in the outer magnetosphere, the increase (drop) of the solar wind dynamic pressure always lead to an increase (drop) of the geosynchronous magnetic field magnitude. The value of the geomagnetic field variation strongly depends on the local time of the observation point, reaching a maximum value near the noon meridian. It is shown that the direction of the B _z component of the interplanetary magnetic field has virtually no effect on the geomagnetic field variation because of a sharp jump of pressure. The time shift between an event in the solar wind and its response in the magnetosphere at a geosynchronous orbit essentially depends on the inclination of the front of a solar wind disturbance to the Sun-Earth line.     

Magnetospheric signatures of auroral disturbances during the passage of the solar wind’s CIR and sheath regions

Based on Polar satellite data, the authors have studied the auroral disturbances that arose during the passage by the Earth of compressed plasma regions formed in front of high-speed solar wind streams (the CIR region) and in front of magnetic clouds (the Sheath region). The aurorae observed by the Polar satellite possessed basic signatures of a substorm: a localized onset and expansion toward the pole and westward and eastward. However, in these cases they had a very large size in longitude and latitude and occupied a very large area. All disturbances observed by the Polar satellite during the Sheath and CIR regions of the solar wind in December of 1996, in 1997–1998, and in 2000 were analyzed. Eight events during disturbance development in the ionosphere, when the Geotail satellite was located in the plasma sheet of the magnetospheric tail, were selected. It is shown that in all selected cases some typical signatures of substorm development in the magnetospheric tail were observed, namely: (1) fast plasma flows (flow reversal, i.e., from tailwards to Earthwards) and (2) a sharp decrease of the total pressure, which followed an interval of total pressure increase. One can draw the conclusion that in the CIR and Sheath regions with a high solar wind density, substorm disturbances of a specific type are observed, with large latitudinal and longitudinal size (sometimes occupying the entire polar cap).     

Algebra and statistics of the solar wind

Statistical studies of properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, based on an extended database for the period 1963–2007 including four solar cycles, show that the Gaussian approximation well suites for some parameters as the probability distribution of their numerical values, while for others the lognormal law is preferred. This paper gives an interpretation of these results as associated with predominance of linear or nonlinear processes in composition and interaction of various disturbances and irregularities propagating and originating in the interior of the Sun and its atmosphere, including the solar corona and the solar wind running away from it. Summation of independent random components of disturbances leads, according to the central limit theorem of the probability theory, to the normal (Gaussian) distributions of quantities proper, while their multiplication leads to the normal distributions of logarithms. Thus, one can discuss the algebra of events and associate observed statistical distinctions with one or another process of formation of irregularities in the solar wind. Among them there are impossible events (having null probability) and reliable events (occurring with 100% probability). For better understanding of the relationship between algebra and statistics of events in the solar wind further investigations are necessary.     

MHD Simulations of the Dynamics of Sharp Disturbances of the Interplanetary Medium and Comparison with Spacecraft Observations

One-dimensional MHD simulations of solitary sharp and strong disturbances (impulses) of the interplanetary magnetic field and plasma of the homogeneous solar wind were performed. The characteristics of a disturbance of this type, recorded onboard the WIND spacecraft (SC) rather far from the Earth, were taken as initial conditions. The results of numerical experiments simulating the evolution of this disturbance in the moving interplanetary plasma, whose parameters correspond to observations of the WIND and INTERBALL-1 SC, show the efficiency of the computer code developed with the special purpose of investigating low-frequency wave events in the space environment. The calculated characteristics of the impulse resulting from the evolution are in good agreement with parameters of the disturbance recorded by the INTERBALL-1 SC closer to the Earth. In particular, the impulse expands due to imbalance of thermal and magnetic pressures, but keeps its abrupt boundaries. It was demonstrated that stable plasma objects, corresponding to stationary MHD solutions, could really exist in the solar wind plasma for a long time.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar,Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances, 1976–2000: 3

In this paper we continue the analysis of the influence of solar and interplanetary events on magnetic storms of the Earth that was started in [9, 10]. Different experimental results on solar-terrestrial physics are analyzed in the study and the effects are determined that arise due to differences in the methods used to analyze the data. The classifications of magnetic storms by the K _p and D _st indices, the solar flare classifications by optical and X-ray observations, and the classifications of different geoeffective interplanetary events are compared and discussed. It is demonstrated that quantitative estimations of the relationships between two types of events often depend on the direction in which the events are compared. In particular, it was demonstrated that the geoeffectiveness of halo CMEs (that is, the percentage of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections that result in geomagnetic storms) is 40–50%. Higher values given in some papers were obtained by another method, in which they were defined as the probability of finding candidates for a source of geomagnetic storms among CMEs, and, strictly speaking, these values are not true estimates of the geoeffectiveness. The latter results are also in contrast with the results of the two-stage tracing of the events: first a storm—an interplanetary disturbance, and then an interplanetary disturbance—a CME.     

Theory of type III radio bursts in the interplanetary space: I. Derivation of permittivity tensor for the system consisting of electron beam and solar wind plasma

The tensor of permittivity for the system “electron beam - plasma of the interplanetary space” is derived in the approximation of geometrical optics. The problem is one-dimensional; all parameters such as density of the beam and of the solar wind plasma, and the induction of the interplanetary magnetic field are assumed to be dependent only on the distance to the Sun. The beam is generated by an active region during a solar flare, and it is a source of radio bursts of type III in the interplanetary space. The tensor of permittivity was obtained to close field equations by a material equation. On the basis of these equations it becomes possible to study theoretically the amplitude-frequency characteristics of the radio bursts as disturbances of the above-described beam-plasma system.     

Sporadic plasma streams and their sources in the period of extraordinary solar activity from October 26 to November 6, 2003

Based on the results of investigations made by various authors applying different semiempirical models, we have formulated the principles of a complex method that allows one to associate sporadic streams of the solar wind (SW) at the Earths orbit with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are their sources on the Sun. This method is applied to an analysis of the events in the interval from October 26 to November 6, 2003. It is shown that, in the period under consideration, which is close to the maximum of solar activity, the majority of CMEs (up to 80% of their total number) turn out to be at the base of a chain of streamers. It is also shown that the component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the main factor of geoeffectiveness for six sporadic SW streams. At the same time, an unusually low value of the index minD_st< -300 nT for two streams with the velocities V_max > 1000 km/s is a consequence of the fact that they are not isolated; i.e., the subsequent stream moves through the medium disturbed by the preceding stream.Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 42, No. 6, 2004, pp. 595–607.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by M. Eselevich, V. Eselevich.     

Sequences of Solar Events with Identical Decays as a Tool for Isolating Quasistationary States in the Interplanetary Space

Time profile of the fluxes of energetic solar particles generated by solar flares (including their phase of decline) is formed to a large extent by the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and its irregularities that move away from the Sun with the solar wind velocity. When propagation is a pure diffusion, the solar particle fluxes decay after the maximum in a power-law manner. At the same time in many cases this decay is exponential, which is indicative of a considerable role played by the convective sweep of particles and their adiabatic deceleration in the expanding solar wind. In this paper we consider the events with long exponential decays and newly discovered series of successive events with identical exponential decays lasting for one to two weeks or more. They allow us to assume that the interplanetary space is stable and homogeneous during this period.     

Coronal mass ejection (CME) activity of low mass M stars as an important factor for the habitability of terrestrial exoplanets. I. CME impact on expected magnetospheres of Earth-like exoplanets in close-in habitable zones

Low mass M- and K-type stars are much more numerous in the solar neighborhood than solar-like G-type stars. Therefore, some of them may appear as interesting candidates for the target star lists of terrestrial exoplanet (i.e., planets with mass, radius, and internal parameters identical to Earth) search programs like Darwin (ESA) or the Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph/Inferometer (NASA). The higher level of stellar activity of low mass M stars, as compared to solar-like G stars, as well as the closer orbital distances of their habitable zones (HZs), means that terrestrial-type exoplanets within HZs of these stars are more influenced by stellar activity than one would expect for a planet in an HZ of a solar-like star. Here we examine the influences of stellar coronal mass ejection (CME) activity on planetary environments and the role CMEs may play in the definition of habitability criterion for the terrestrial type exoplanets near M stars. We pay attention to the fact that exoplanets within HZs that are in close proximity to low mass M stars may become tidally locked, which, in turn, can result in relatively weak intrinsic planetary magnetic moments. Taking into account existing observational data and models that involve the Sun and related hypothetical parameters of extrasolar CMEs (density, velocity, size, and occurrence rate), we show that Earth-like exoplanets within close-in HZs should experience a continuous CME exposure over long periods of time. This fact, together with small magnetic moments of tidally locked exoplanets, may result in little or no magnetospheric protection of planetary atmospheres from a dense flow of CME plasma. Magnetospheric standoff distances of weakly magnetized Earth-like exoplanets at orbital distances 相似文献   

Effect of large and sharp changes of solar wind dynamic pressure on the earths’s magnetosphere: analysis of several events

The magnetosphere and ionosphere response to arrival of large changes of the solar wind dynamic pressure with sharp fronts to the Earth is considered. It is shown that, under an effect of an impulse of solar wind pressure, the magnetic field at a geosynchronous orbit changes: it grows with increasing solar wind pressure and decreases, when the solar wind pressure drops. Energetic particle fluxes also change: on the dayside of the magnetosphere the fluxes grow with arrival of an impulse of solar wind dynamic pressure, and on the nightside the response of energetic particle fluxes depends on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) direction. Under the condition of negative Bz-component of the IMF on the nightside of the magnetosphere, injections of energetic electron fluxes can be observed. It is shown, that large and fast increase of solar wind pressure, accompanied by a weakly negative Bz-component of the IMF, can result in particless’ precipitation on the dayside of the auroral oval, and in the development of a pseudobreakup or substorm on the nightside of the oval. The auroral oval dynamics shows that after passage of an impulse of solar wind dynamic pressure the auroral activity weakens. In other words, the impulse of solar wind pressure in the presence of weakly negative IMF can not only cause the pseudobreakup/substorm development, but control this development as well.     

The Earth's Magnetosphere Response to Solar Wind Events according to the INTERBALL Project Data

The results of studying the interaction of two types of the solar wind (magnetic clouds and solar wind of extremely low density) with the Earth's magnetosphere are discussed. This study is based of the INTERBALL space project measurements and on the other ground-based and space observations. For moderate variations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, the response of the magnetosphere is similar to its response to similar changes in the absence of magnetic clouds and depends on a previous history of IMF variations. Extremely large density variations on the interplanetary shocks, and on leading and trailing edges of the clouds result in a strong deformation of the magnetosphere, in large-scale motion of the geomagnetic tail, and in the development of magnetic substorms and storms. The important consequences of these processes are: (1) the observation of regions of the magnetosphere and its boundaries at great distances from the average location; (2) density and temperature variations in the outer regions of the magnetosphere; (3) multiple crossings of geomagnetic tail boundaries by a satellite; and (4) bursty fluxes of electrons and ions in the magnetotail, auroral region, and the polar cap. Several polar activations and substorms can develop during a single magnetic cloud arrival; a greater number of these events are accompanied, as a rule, by the development of a stronger magnetic storm. A gradual, but very strong, decrease of the solar wind density on May 10–12, 1999, did not cause noticeable change of geomagnetic indices, though it resulted in considerable expansion of the magnetosphere.     

Lithopanspermia in star-forming clusters

This paper considers the lithopanspermia hypothesis in star-forming groups and clusters, where the chances of biological material spreading from one solar system to another is greatly enhanced (relative to action in the field) because of the close proximity of the systems and lower relative velocities. These effects more than compensate for the reduced time spent in such crowded environments. This paper uses approximately 300,000 Monte Carlo scattering calculations to determine the cross sections for rocks to be captured by binaries and provides fitting formulae for other applications. We assess the odds of transfer as a function of the ejection speed v (eject) and number N(.) of members in the birth aggregate. The odds of any given ejected meteoroid being recaptured by another solar system are relatively low, about 1:10(3)-10(6) over the expected range of ejection speeds and cluster sizes. Because the number of ejected rocks (with mass m > 10 kg) per system can be large, N (R) approximately 10(16), virtually all solar systems are likely to share rocky ejecta with all of the other solar systems in their birth cluster. The number of ejected rocks that carry living microorganisms is much smaller and less certain, but we estimate that N (B) approximately 10(7) rocks can be ejected from a biologically active solar system. For typical birth environments, the capture of life-bearing rocks is expected to occur N (bio) asymptotically equal to 10-16,000 times (per cluster), depending on the ejection speeds. Only a small fraction (f (imp) approximately 10(4)) of the captured rocks impact the surfaces of terrestrial planets, so that N (lps) asymptotically equal to 10(3)-1.6 lithopanspermia events are expected per cluster (under favorable conditions). Finally, we discuss the question of internal versus external seeding of clusters and the possibility of Earth seeding young clusters over its biologically active lifetime.     

Complex classification of global geomagnetic disturbances

Based on the Kohonen algorithm, a self-training neural network is constructed which allows one to classify geomagnetic disturbances using the data on parameters of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. Such an approach permits one to consider the suggested classification simultaneously as space and physical, since the space origin of disturbances of different kinds is considered within the framework of the classification. As a result of numerical experiments, we have succeeded in isolating basic classes of complexes of disturbed parameters accounting for various events of the space weather, each of which is responsible for corresponding global magnetospheric conditions.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances, 1976–2000: 2

In this paper we continue the analysis of the influence of solar and interplanetary events on magnetospheric storms that was started in [1]. Two data sets are additionally analyzed in the present study: solar flares of importance M5 and greater in 1976–2000 and halo CMEs observed by the SOHO spacecraft during the period of 1996–2000. It is demonstrated that the statistical characteristics of the new set of flares and of that analyzed before in [1] differ little, while the geoeffectiveness of the halo CMEs turned out to be much less than that of the previously published CMEs.     

Peculiarities of the development of active regions on the Sun prior to strong X-class flares: Joint analysis of data from the RATAN-600 radio telescope and SDO space observatory

Complex analysis is performed for five active regions on the Sun where strong X-class solar flares occurred in 2011–2012. Radio emissions from the regions were investigated based on daily multi-wave observation of the Sun with the RATAN-600 radio telescope in the 1.6–8.0 cm wavelength range. It is shown that, as in eruptive events that were investigated earlier using the RATAN-600 radio telescope, 1–2 days (in some cases 14–17 h) prior to a strong flare one observes a developing source over the neutral line of photospheric magnetic field, which is projected on the region of the maximum approach of fields of opposite signs. In most cases this source became a dominant component in the microwave emissions of the active region prior to a flare. Simultaneously, analyzing magnetographic measurements of the same active regions, based on the data of the SDO space observatory, it has been shown that development of X-class flares proceeds at sufficiently high levels (F ～10²² Mx) of magnetic flux in groups of sunspots and at sharp growth of flux gradient (G ～ 20 × 10²⁰ Mx/deg), which reflects the geometric approach of sunspots with opposite polarities of the magnetic field. These results can be used to develop methods for forecasting strong flares on the Sun.     

The development of compression long-period pulsations on the recovery phase of the magnetic storm on May 23, 2007

The features of the excitation of spatially localized long-period (10–15 min) irregular pulsations with a maximum amplitude of ~200 nT at a geomagnetic latitude of 66° in the morning sector 5 MLT are considered. Fluctuations were recorded against the background of substorm disturbances (maximum AE ~ 1278 nT). Antiphase variations of plasma density and magnetic field accompanied by vortex disturbances of the magnetic field both in the magnetosphere and the ionosphere have been recorded in the magnetosphere in this sector. Compression fluctuations corresponding to a slow magnetosonic wave have been recorded in the interplanetary medium in the analyzed period. It is assumed that pulsations have been excited in the localization of the cloud of injected particles in the plasma sheet by compression fluctuations caused by variations of the dynamic pressure of solar wind.     

Relative occurrence rate and geoeffectiveness of large-scale types of the solar wind

We investigate the relative occurrence rate for various types of the solar wind and their geoeffectiveness for magnetic storms with Dst < —50 nT. Both integrated effect for the entire time 1976–2000 and variations during this period of 2.5 cycles of solar activity are studied As raw data for the analysis we have used the catalog of large-scale types of the solar wind for the period 1976-2000 (see ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/omni/) created by us with the use of the OMNI database (http://omni.web.gsgc.nasa.gov) [1] and described in detail in [2]. The average annual numbers of different type of events are as follows: 124 ±81 for the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), 8 ±6 for magnetic clouds (MC), 99 ±38 for Ejecta, 46 ±19 for Sheath before Ejecta, 6 ±5 for Sheath before MC, and 63 ±15 for CIR. The measurements that allowed one to determine a source in the solar wind were available only for 58% of moderate and strong magnetic storms (with index Dst < —50 nT) during the period 1976–2000. Magnetic clouds (MC) are shown to be the most geoeffective (~61%). The CIR events and Ejecta with Sheath region are three times less geoeffective (~20–21 %). Variations of occurrence rate and geoeffectiveness of various types of the solar wind in the solar cycle are discussed.