基于解体事件的空间碎片轨道演化算法研究

针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的演化过程,进行了数学分析,确定了新生成的空间碎片的速度增量,在该增量作用下碎片轨道会发生变更,本文根据该增量得出了空间碎片在轨道变更后的轨道根数,分析了在大气阻力摄动作用下,空间碎片的数目和轨道分布的演化情况,给出了相关结果,结果表明此算法可行。     

Auroral Electrojet Event Associated With Magnetospheric Substorms

The auroral electrojet index is an important index in monitoring and predicting substorms. A substorms usually includes auroral breakup, auroral electrojet event marked by AE increase, energetic particle injection at geosynchronous orbit, mid-low latitude Pi2, etc. However the question whether an auroral electrojet event corresponds to a substorm remains unanswered. Using the auroral electrojet index in 2004, we analyzed five auroral electrojet events and studied their relation with substorms. The results show that there are three kinds of auroral electrojet events: (1) simultaneous rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and eastward auroral electrojet; (2) rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable eastward auroral electrojet; (3) rapid increase of eastward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable westward auroral electrojet. Most of auroral electrojet events correspond to substorms. However a few auroral electrojet events are not accompanied by substorms. This situation most often occurs for the auroral electrojet event in which eastward auroral electrojet dominates.      

A Revisit of the Phobos Events

The magnetic field disturbances detected by the Phobos-2 spacecraft in 1989 have been suggested to be caused by a ring of dust and/or gas emitted from the Martian moon, Phobos. The physical nature of these ``Phobos events' is examined using results from related investigations over the last twenty years. It is concluded that there is no clear evidence at present to support the association of magnetic field disturbances in the solar wind with Phobos. The situation will be further clarified taking advantage of the multi-spacecraft observations of the Yinghuo-1(YH-1), Mars Express and MAVEN missions beginning in 2012. It is expected that many novel features of solar wind interaction with Phobos (and possibly also Deimos) itself will also be revealed.      

Radiation environment due to galactic and solar cosmic rays during manned mission to Mars in the periods between maximum and minimum solar activity cycles.

A possibility of a manned mission to Mars without exceeding the current radiation standards is very doubtful during the periods of minimum solar activity since the dose equivalent due to galactic cosmic rays exceeds currently recommended standards even inside a radiation shelter with an equivalent of 30 g cm-2 aluminum. The radiation situation at the time of maximum solar activity is determined by the occurrence of major solar proton events which are exceedingly difficult to forecast. This paper discusses the radiation environment during a manned mission to Mars in the years between minimum and maximum solar activity when the galactic cosmic ray intensity is considerably reduced, but the solar flare activity has not yet maximized.     

联合太阳和行星际物理参数预测行星际激波能否到达地球

选取第23太阳活动周（1997—2006年）期间542例由太阳爆发活动驱动的行星际激波事件,分析确定了太阳源头和行星际空间中影响行星际激波能否到达地球轨道的关键物理参数;在此基础上,建立了预测行星际激波能否到达地球的新预报模型（EdEaSPM）. 回溯预报结果表明,EdEaSPM模型的预报成功率约为66%,略高于国际一流预报模型的预报成功率;EdEaSPM模型的虚报率未超过50%,改善了当前国际主流模型虚报率较大的情况;对于偏度指标,虽然当前所有模型的偏度值均大于1,但EdEaSPM模型的偏度值最接近于1且明显小于其他模型的偏度值;EdEaSPM模型的其他评价指标也都高于国际主流模型的相应指标. 此外,选取2012年期间的激波事件对EdEaSPM模型进行了预报检验,预测结果与实际情况吻合. EdEaSPM模型不仅能够提前约1～3天进行预报,而且预报效果与国际一流模型具有可比性,尤其是在提高预报成功率及降低虚报率方面具有一定优势.      

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

基于北斗卫星反射信号的海面溢油探测方法及试验

为了监测小规模固定海域的溢油状况,针对岸基接收平台提出了一种基于北斗卫星反射信号的海面溢油探测方法,该方法将全球导航卫星系统反射信号(GNSS-R)技术应用于岸基条件下的海面溢油探测。进行了岸基试验,利用右旋圆极化(RHCP)天线和左旋圆极化(LHCP)天线分别采集北斗卫星直射与反射信号,在信号同步的基础上提取卫星直射和反射信号的相关功率,并结合北斗卫星的高度角与方位角信息,反演目标海域的介电常数来判断海面有无溢油。试验结果表明探测表面为油面时,介电常数反演结果均值为3.6,标准差为2.13,这与油的真实介电常数范围2.0~4.5一致,远小于海水介电常数,证明将GNSS-R应用到岸基海面溢油探测中具有可行性。     

Interannual variability of the zonal sea surface slope in the equatorial Atlantic during the 1990s

Altimetry data have proven themselves essential for the early detection, analysis and monitoring of large scale tropical anomalies associated with El Niño in the Pacific. Warm events in the Atlantic are much weaker than in the Pacific and are partially masked by the strong seasonal cycle. Satellite altimetric data permits one to estimate the zonal sea surface slope variations at the equator in the Atlantic with sufficient accuracy for resolving interannual sea surface slope variations. The altimetry-derived slope is here shown to detect Atlantic warm events. For all warm events, anomalies in sea surface slope tend to lead SST. In the mid-1990s’, the equatorial interannual variability is dominated by 17-month period events which exhibit the structure observed in local coupled ocean–atmosphere warm events (zonal wind stress weakening and zonal surface slope relaxation, warm SST, excess precipitation). The frequency of occurrence of these Atlantic warm events is seen to have increased during the mid-1990s.     

态势感知的概念与发展综述及微纳仿生态势感知系统的顶层设计

简要综述西方科技强国的态势感知概念、态势感知系统研发现状与应用、主要研发计划,总结其经验与教训,分析中国发展态势感知技术的迫切性与突破点.提供解决方案,介绍科研课题"微纳仿生空间态势感知器"中的态势感知概念、包括需求分析、模型设计、概要设计、应用设计的系统顶层设计内容.态势是指生物或系统对其内部状态和外部环境的"综合印象",包括自身状况和变化趋势、外部环境呈现出的某种状态和形势、发展趋势等.具有类似生物感知能力的态势感知器需要对自身状况、外界环境的多种物理量进行综合监测,其目的在于获取自身和环境的全面的、系统的信息.应用成熟的微纳米技术成果,以仿生学为主要理论导引,采用快速原型法设计开发基于微纳米技术和仿生学的态势感知器,可以广泛应用在太空、军事、环境保护、工业、消费电子等领域.     

Study of the Enhancement Events of Relativistic Electron at the Geosynchronous Orbit

The high flux of energetic electron on geostationary orbit can induce many kinds of malfunction of the satellite there, within which the bulk-charging is the most significant that several broadcast satellite failures were confirmed to be due to this effect. The electron flux on geostationary orbit varies in a large range even up to three orders accompanied the passage of interplanetary magnetic cloud and the following geomagnetic disturbances. Upon the investigation of electron flux enhancement events, two types of events were partitioned as recurrent events and random ones. Both of the two kinds of events relate to the interplanetary conditions such as solar wind parameters, IMF etc and their evolution characters as well. As for the recurrent events, we found that, (1) all of the events exhibits periodic recurrence about 27 days, (2) significant increase of electron flux relates to interplanetary index and characters of their distribution, (3) the electron flux also has relation to solar activity index. An artificial neural network was constructed to estimate the flux I day ahead. The random electron flux enhancement events are rare and present different distribution figures to the recurrent ones. The figure of the random events and the conditions of their occurrence is also discussed in this paper.      

北驼峰区电离层GPS卫星闪烁事件时空特征及对通信的影响

基于子午工程北大深圳站（22.59°N,113.97°E）电离层GPS双频接收机在2011年1月1日至2017年12月31日连续7年的长时间序列闪烁和TEC观测数据,分析不同太阳活条件下华南赤道异常北驼峰区观测到的GPS卫星L波段电离层闪烁事件时空分布特征及其对通信的影响.结果表明:GPS闪烁事件几乎都发生在夜间,且主要发生在春秋分月份;在不同太阳活动条件下,夜间GPS闪烁事件都主要发生在北驼峰区域靠近磁赤道的一侧,且GPS闪烁事件存在明显的东-西侧天区不对称性,即在台站西侧天区发生的闪烁事件明显偏多;在不同太阳活动条件下,弱闪烁事件伴随的TEC耗尽和卫星失锁事件比例相对较低,强闪烁事件则大部分都伴随着TEC耗尽和卫星失锁事件的发生.      

Evaluation of a Geiger-mode imaging flash lidar in the approach phase for autonomous safe landing on the Moon

The imaging flash lidar has been considered as a promising sensor for the future space missions such as autonomous safe landing, spacecraft rendezvous and docking due to its ability to provide a full 3D scene with a single or multiple laser pulses. The linear-mode flash lidar has been developed and demonstrated for an autonomous safe landing on the Moon in order to provide an accurate distance measurement to the landing site and its 3D image. Yet, the Geiger-mode flash lidar has also been recognized as an emerging technology for the space missions because it is highly sensitive even to a single photon and provides the very accurate timing of photon arrival. In this study, the performance of the Geiger-mode flash lidar is simulated in the approach phase and evaluated for the autonomous landing on the Moon. Furthermore, a new statistical signal processing algorithm is proposed to remove the noise counts in order to obtain the 3D image from a sequence of laser pulses in the situation of the fast moving spacecraft. The algorithm is shown to be effective for the autonomous landing due to its ability to remove noise events under the condition of low signal-to-noise ratio and improve ranging accuracy.     

Polar卫星在低高度时表面正高电位的统计研究

基于Polar卫星1996-2008年的表面电压数据,研究了卫星在低轨区域出现正高电位（异常事件）与太阳活动的关系及其发生位置的磁地方时（MLT）分布.研究表明:太阳辐射与异常事件发生次数呈正相关,太阳活动越活跃,异常事件出现次数越多,但不会影响航天器表面电位;异常事件发生占比呈现明显季节性变化,在太阳活动高年,冬季和夏季次数较多,春季和秋季次数较少,在太阳活动低年,每月次数均维持在较低水平,而一个月内异常事件次数没有明显规律;在分布上南北半球表现出相似性,异常事件均不会发生在地磁纬度50°-60°区域,极区和昏侧发生次数较多,而不同的是异常事件在南半球发生得更多更集中;虽然太阳活动与航天器在低高度时表面出现正高电位的次数呈正相关,但即使在太阳活动峰年,航天器异常事件发生率也不超过10%.      

基于Green函数法的太阳高能粒子行星际扩散过程模拟

统计分析了自1976-2017年期间记录到的217次SEP(Solar Energetic Particle)事件的日冕足点经度位置,其分布特征符合日冕横向分布的东西效应,同时基于两相传输模型及其Green函数解,对发生在不同日冕足点的四次SEP事件进行了模拟研究.模拟与观测结果表现一致,表明该模型能够较好地模拟发生在...     

行星际激波传播至1AU的渡越时间预测

考虑了激波爆发源角宽度、能量、驱动时间、激波速度及其与背景太阳风之间的相互作用,利用流体力学扰动方程建立起一个激波扰动传播模型,用于研究激波从太阳传播到地球轨道附近(1 AU处)所需要的时间(渡越时间)问题.为印证扰动传播模型的适用性,利用1979-1989年间的27个激波事件,以及1997年2月到2000年1月间的68个激波事件,对激波到达地球轨道附近的渡越时间进行了预测,并将结果与STOA和ISPM预报模型结果进行了比较.实验表明,该模型在所有95个事件中,渡越时间相对误差小于10%的事件数占总事件数的25.26%;相对误差小于20%的占总事件数的50.53%;相对误差小于30%的占总事件的65.26%.      

Relationship between substorm activity and the interplanetary medium parameters during the main phase of strong magnetic storms

In the present paper dependences of substorm activity on the solar wind velocity and southward component (Bz) of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the main phase of magnetic storms, induced by the CIR and ICME events, is studied. Strong magnetic storms with close values of Dst_min?≈??100?±?10?nT are considered. For the period of 1979–2017 there are selected 26 magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME (MC?+?Ejecta) events. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the average value of the AE index (AE_aver) at the main phase of magnetic storm correlates with the solar wind electric field. The highest correlation coefficient (r?=?0.73) is observed for the magnetic storms induced by the CIR events. It is found that the AE_aver for magnetic storms induced by ICME events, unlike CIR events, increases with the growth of average value of the southward IMF Bz module. The analysis of dependence between the AE_aver and average value of the solar wind velocity (Vsw_aver) during the main phase of magnetic storm shows that in the CIR events, unlike ICME, the AE_aver correlates on the Vsw_aver.     

太阳质子事件与大气臭氧扰动

本文利用统计分析方法分析了1960至1982年间1级以上的太阳质子事件与四个不同地理纬度大气臭氧含量的相互关系.分析结果表明,对于中、低纬度地区,1、2级太阳质子事件基本上不影响大气臭氧含量,只有3、4级的大事件才对臭氧含量产生扰动,而且具有明显的纬度效应;对于极区,1级以上的太阳质子事件就能对臭氧含量产生影响,随着质子事件级别的增高,对臭氧含量的扰动也加大.通常,太阳质子事件发生的当天,臭氧含量开始下降,在第4天下降达最小值,整个扰动持续数日.由太阳质子事件扰动大气臭氧明显的纬度效应证明了太阳质子事件的确是使大气臭氧含量变化的重要因素.此外,分析结果表明,冬天出现的太阳质子事件对臭氧的扰动要大于夏天质子事件对臭氧的扰动.这些结果给出了太阳质子事件影响大气臭氧的一个总轮廓,而且从理论上得到了较好的解释.      

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Substorm activity during the main phase of magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME events

In this work, the relation of high-latitude indices of geomagnetic activity (AE, Kp) with the rate of storm development and a solar wind electric field during the main phase of magnetic storm induced by the CIR and ICME events is investigated. 72 magnetic storms induced by CIR and ICME events have been selected. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the increase of average value of the Kp index (Kp_aver) is observed with the growth of rate of storm development. The value of Kp_aver index correlates with the magnitude of minimum value of Dst index (|Dst_min|) only for the ICME events. The analysis of average values of AE and Kp indices during the main phase of magnetic storm depending on the SW electric field has shown that for the CIR events, unlike the ICME events, the value of AE_aver increases with the growth of average value of the electric field (Esw_aver). The value of Kp_aver correlates with the Esw_aver only for the ICME events. The relation between geomagnetic indices and the maximum value of SW electric field (Esw_max) is weak. However, for the ICME events Kp_aver correlates with Esw_max.