PPS-87: a new event oriented solar proton prediction model.

A new event-oriented solar proton prediction model has been developed and implemented at the USAF Space Environment forecast facility. This new model generates predicted solar proton time-intensity profiles for a number of user adjustable energy ranges and is also capable of making predictions for the heavy ion flux. The computer program is designed so a forecaster can select inputs based on the data available in near real-time at the forecast center as the solar flare is occurring. The predicted event amplitude is based on the electromagnetic emission parameters of the solar flare (either microwave or soft X-ray emission) and the solar flare position on the sun. The model also has an update capability where the forecaster can normalize the prediction to actual spacecraft observations of spectral slope and particle flux as the event is occurring in order to more accurately predict the future time-intensity profile of the solar particle flux. Besides containing improvements in the accuracy of the predicted energetic particle event onset time and magnitude, the new model converts the predicted solar particle flux into an expected radiation dose that might be experienced by an astronaut during EVA activities or inside the space shuttle.     

Interplanetary proton cumulated fluence model update

Solar particle events leading to important increase of particle fluxes at energies of order of magnitude ranging from MeV to GeV constitute an important hazard for space missions. They may lead to effects seen in microelectronics or damage to solar cells and constitute a potential hazard for manned missions. Cumulative damage is commonly expressed as a function of fluence which is defined as the integral of the flux over time. A priori deterministic estimates of the expected fluence cannot be made because over the time scale of a space mission, the fluence can be dominated by the contribution of a few rare and unpredictable high intensity events. Therefore, statistical approaches are required in order to estimate fluences likely to be encountered by a space mission in advance. This paper extends work done by Rosenqvist et al. [Rosenqvist, L., Hilgers, A., Evans, H., Daly, E., Hapgood, M., Stamper, R., Zwickl, R., Bourdarie, S., Boscher, D. Toolkit for updating interplanetary proton-cumulated fluence models. J. Spacecraft Rockets, 42(6), 1077–1090, 2005] to describe an updated predictive engineering model for the proton interplanetary fluence with energies >30 MeV. This model is derived from a complete list of solar proton fluences based on data from a number of calibrated sources covering almost three solar cycles.     

The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.     

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

SEP events and multi-spacecraft observations: Constraints on theory

Fifteen solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been analyzed using proton flux data recorded by the Helios 1, Helios 2, and IMP 8 spacecraft in the energy range ∼4–40 MeV during 1974–1982. For each of the events at least two of the spacecraft have their nominal magnetic footpoint within 20° in heliocentric longitude from each other. The SEP events are sub-grouped as a function of their heliocentric longitudinal separation and heliocentric radial distance from the SEP associated solar flare and several case studies are presented in this paper. Main results concerning their usage in estimating the SEP radial dependence are given. Moreover, we investigate the behavior of the third not connected spacecraft in order to study the dependence of the proton flux as a function of flare location. It is found that the contribution of the longitudinal gradient in determining variations in the SEP proton flux is particularly relevant for spacecraft having their magnetic connection footpoint separated from the flare between 30° and 50°.     

Radiation factors in space and a system for their monitoring.

The radiation environment is of special concern when the spaceship flies in deep space. The annual fluence of the galactic cosmic rays is approximately 10(8) cm-2 and the absorbed dose of the solar cosmic rays can reach 10 Gy per event behind the shielding thickness of 3-5 g cm-2 Al. For the radiation environment monitoring it is planned to place a measuring complex on the space probes "Mars" and "Spectr" flying outside the magnetosphere. This complex is to measure: cosmic rays composition, particle flux, dose equivalent, energy and LET spectra, solar X-rays spectrum. On line data transmission by the space probes permits to obtain the radiation environment data in space.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Solar flare particle injection spectra and spectra of flux maxima at the point of observation

Numerical models of impulsive solar flare particle events usually assume the radial diffusion coefficient to be independent of energy per nucleon, T, although the observations indicate a T^0.5 dependence (constant mean free path). The assumption of a constant diffusion coefficient results in a preservation of a power law injection spectrum at all radial distances throughout the event. We investigate the effect of an energy dependent diffusion coefficient on the spectrum of flux maxima at a fixed point in interplanetary space. This spectrum is harder than that of initial differential number densities close to the sun. Furthermore, the spectrum hardens with increasing radial distance which seems to be at variance with observations.     

Significant proton events of solar cycle 22 and a comparison with events of previous solar cycles.

The sun has produced several high energy and large fluence solar proton events during solar cycle 22. This recent activity is similar to activity that occurred in the 19th solar cycle before the advent of routine space measurements. In a review of the recent events and a comparison with significant solar proton events of previous solar cycles, it appears that the 20th and 21st solar cycles were deficient in the total fluence of solar particles as detected at the earth. Therefore, when models of maximum solar proton fluxes to be encountered for deep space missions are developed, solar proton data acquired during the present solar cycle should be incorporated.     

New insights from cross-correlation studies between solar activity indices and cosmic-ray flux during Forbush decrease events

Observed galactic cosmic ray intensity can be subjected to a transient decrease. These so-called Forbush decreases are driven by coronal mass ejection induced shockwaves in the heliosphere. By combining in situ measurements by space borne instruments with ground-based cosmic ray observations, we investigate the relationship between solar energetic particle flux, various solar activity indices, and intensity measurements of cosmic rays during such an event. We present cross-correlation study done using proton flux data from the SOHO/ERNE instrument, as well as data collected during some of the strongest Forbush decreases over the last two completed solar cycles by the network of neutron monitor detectors and different solar observatories. We have demonstrated connection between the shape of solar energetic particles fluence spectra and selected coronal mass ejection and Forbush decrease parameters, indicating that power exponents used to model these fluence spectra could be valuable new parameters in similar analysis of mentioned phenomena. They appear to be better predictor variables of Forbush decrease magnitude in interplanetary magnetic field than coronal mass ejection velocities.     

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

太阳质子耀斑X射线辐射特征及质子事件警报

太阳质子耀斑X射线辐射特征的研究, 为太阳质子事件的警报提供一个重要的途径和方法。本文分析了第21周太阳活动峰年(1977—1986)期间质子耀斑和相应的GOES和SMM卫星观测的X射线辐射资料, 结果表明:大部分质子耀斑的硬X射线峰值流量F_HX≥104s/c;积分流量F₀≥106counts;硬X射线辐射到达峰值时间T_R≥100s;持续时间T_D≥103s;X光子最高能量E_x≥300keV;平均能谱指数√r≤3.5;高能时延T_L≥10s。利用这些X射线暴的特征参数, 对第21周峰年大质子事件作警报检验, 结果是:报准率为94％, 虚报率为40％。      

Relativistic solar protons in the ground level event of 23 February 1956: New study

In this study we applied again to the outstanding solar particle event of 23 February 1956, the largest one in the entire history of observations of solar cosmic rays. Due to significant improvement of the analysis/modeling techniques and new understanding of physical processes in the solar atmosphere and interplanetary space, a possibility arises to interpret the old data in the light of modern concept of multiple particle acceleration at/near the Sun. In our new analysis the data of available then neutron monitors and muon telescopes are used. The technique of the analysis includes: (a) calculation of asymptotic cones of ground-based detectors; (b) modeling of cosmic ray detector responses at variable parameters of the flux of solar relativistic protons; (c) determination of primary solar proton parameters outside magnetosphere by comparison of computed responses with observations. Certain evidence was obtained that the flux of relativistic solar protons consisted of two distinct components: prompt and delayed ones. The prompt component with exponential energy spectrum caused a giant impulse-like increase at a number of European cosmic ray stations. The delayed component had a power-law spectrum and was a cause of gradual increase at cosmic ray stations in the North American region. A numerical simulation of the proton acceleration in the vicinity of the magnetic reconnection region brings to the proton spectrum with exponential dependence on energy. This agrees with observational data for the prompt component. It is also shown that the huge increase in ∼5000% on neutron monitors was due to the prompt component only with the exponential proton spectrum. The power-law spectrum of comparable intensity gave considerably smaller effect.     

A comparison of two different types of geosynchronous satellite measurements during the 1989 solar proton events.

The proton telescope aboard the GOES-7 satellite continuously records the proton flux at geosynchronous orbit, and therefore provides a direct measurement of the energetic protons arriving during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Microelectronic devices are susceptible to single event upset (SEU) caused by both energetic protons and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) ions. Some devices are so sensitive that their upsets can be used as a dosimetric indicator of a high fluence of particles. The 93L422 1K SRAM is one such device. Eight of them are on the TDRS-1 satellite in geosynchronous orbit, and collectively they had been experiencing 1-2 upset/day due to the GCR background. During the large SEP events of 1989 the upset rate increased dramatically, up to about 250 for the week of 19 Oct, due to the arrival of the SEP protons. Using the GOES proton spectra, the proton-induced SEU cross section curve for the 93L422 and the shielding distribution around the 93L422, the calculated upsets based on the GOES satellite data compared well against the log of measured upsets on TDRS-1.     

Direct comparison of transient radiation belt topology and dynamics in 1991 based on measurements onboard Mir space station and NOAA satellite.

In March 1991 the CRRES spacecraft measured a new transient radiation belt resulting from a solar proton event and subsequent geomagnetic disturbance. The presence of this belt was also noted by dosimeter-radiometers aboard the Mir space station (approx. 400 km, 51 degrees orbit) and by particle telescopes on the NOAA-10 spacecraft (850 km, 98 degrees). This event provides a unique opportunity to compare particle flux and dose measurements made by different instruments in different orbits under changing conditions. We present here a comparison of the measurements made by the different detectors. We discuss the topology and dynamics of the transient radiation belt over a period of more than one year.     

Effects of orbit progression on the radiation exposures from solar proton fluxes in low Earth orbit under geomagnetic storm conditions.

The present study examines the effects of orbit progression on the exposures within a Space Station Freedom module in a 51.6-degree inclined orbit at 450 km. The storm evolution is modeled after the November 1960 event, and the solar proton flux evolution is taken from the August 1972 solar proton event. The effects of a strong magnetic shock, such as was observed during the October 1989 event, is also modeled. The statistics on hourly average storm fields for the last forty years reveal that the largest geomagnetic storms approach a Dst value of -500 nanotesla at the storm peak. Similarly, one of the largest satellite-measured proton flux (> 10 MeV) for space exposures is the event of August 1972. The effects of orbit progression (advance of the line of nodes) is examined for the above conditions to study the variation of exposures under differing times of occurrence of the solar proton peak intensity, attainment of geomagnetic storm maximum, and the location of the line of nodes of the last geomagnetically protected orbit. The impact of the inherent inhomogeneity of the space station module is examined as a limiting factor on exposure with regard to the need of additional parasitic shielding.     

"Mir" radiation dosimetry results during the solar proton events in September-October 1989.

Using data from dosimetry-radiometry system "Liulin" on board of "Mir"-space station the particle flux and doserate during September-October, 1989 has been studied. The orbit of the station was 379 km perigee, 410 km apogee and 51.6 degrees inclination. Special attention has been paid to the flux and doserate changes inside the station after intensive solar proton events (SPE) on 29 of September, 1989. The comparison between the doses before and after the solar flares shows increase of the calculated mean dose per day by factor of 10 to 200. During the SPE on the 29 of September the additional dose was 310 mrad. The results of the experiment are compared with the data for the solar proton fluxes obtained on the GOES-7 satellite.     

强磁暴、能量粒子暴与热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系

利用1997-2007年由GOES8, GOES11和GOES12星载高能粒子探测器在地球同步轨道高度上所探测到的高能质子和高能电子通量探测数据以及高度560km左右星载大气密度探测器所得的热层大气密度探测数据, 统计分析了强地磁扰动、高能粒子通量跃变和热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系, 初步获得强地磁扰动期间, 地球同步轨道(外辐射带外环)均出现了增幅大于三个数量级的高能质子通量(尤其是E>1MeV)强增强现象, 随后热 层大气密度强烈上涨, 表明三者之间是正相关关系. 在时间上地球同步轨道高能质子通量强增强现象先于日均Ap值(地磁活动程度)上涨约一天左右, 而热层大气密度强涨落现象又明显滞后于强地磁扰动事件.      

Dynamics of solar cosmic ray events: Processes at large heliocentric distances (⪢1 AU)

Observations of solar cosmic ray events far from the sun (?1 AU) became possible after the launch of Pioneer 10 in 1972. Four spacecraft have now travelled beyond the orbit of Jupiter - Pioneer 10/11 and Voyager 1/2 — and are producing a growing body of distant observations of solar cosmic ray events. Initial studies using Pioneer 10/11 data out to ～6 AU interpreted flare particle observations in terms of a diffusion model, including the effects of convection and adiabatic energy loss. This model enjoyed general success in explaining the time-intensity profiles in cases where the spacecraft connection longitude at the sun did not change significantly with time. The results implied that the radial diffusion coefficient (K_r) increased slowly with distance over that radial range. More recent results at larger distances imply that K_r may begin to decrease beyond ～5 AU. It is not yet clear whether the standard diffusion model will be adequate to explain solar events well beyond 5 AU. The fact that large events at very large distances can last up to two solar rotations implies that solar wind stream structure will also play a role in the event dynamics. In general, however, observations at large distances offer perhaps the best hope of separating interplanetary propagation effects from coronal storage and propagation effects which frequently dominate observed event profiles at 1 AU.     

Power-law spectra of energetic electrons in solar flares from the maximum entropy and dimensional considerations

The maximum entropy formalism and dimensional analysis are used to derive a power-law spectrum of accelerated electrons in impulsive solar flares, where the particles can contain a significant fraction of the total flare energy. Entropy considerations are used to derive a power-law spectrum for a particle distribution characterised by its order of magnitude of energy. The derivation extends an earlier one-dimensional argument to the case of an isotropic three-dimensional particle distribution. Dimensional arguments employ the idea that the spectrum should reflect a balance between the processes of energy input into the corona and energy dissipation in solar flares. The governing parameters are suggested on theoretical grounds and shown to be consistent with solar flare observations. The flare electron flux, differential in the non-relativistic electron kinetic energy E, is predicted to scale as $E^{-3}$. This scaling is in agreement with RHESSI measurements of the hard X-ray flux that is generated by deka-keV electrons, accelerated in intense solar flares.