Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

中等磁暴太阳周分布的统计研究

依据实际观测的中等磁暴数据,统计分析了中等磁暴的太阳周分布.分析结果表明,在一个太阳活动周内,每年中等磁暴随时间的变化出现多个峰值,其中,最大峰值均出现在太阳活动周的下降段,即中等磁暴的峰值比太阳黑子数平滑年均值的峰值要滞后,滞后的时间为2～3年.超过70%的中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段,这表明绝大多数中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段.通过对中等磁暴平滑月均值与太阳黑子数平滑月均值相位差的计算分析发现,中等磁暴峰值出现的时间比太阳黑子数峰值出现的时间要滞后,不同太阳活动周中等磁暴峰值出现的时间与太阳黑子数峰值时间滞后的程度不同.      

Characterization of the slow wind in the outer corona

The study concerns the streamer belt observed at high spectral resolution during the minimum of solar cycle 23 with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region.     

The atmospheric cosmic- and solar energetic particle radiation environment at aircraft altitudes

Galactic cosmic rays interact with the solar wind, the earth's magnetic field and its atmosphere to produce hadron, lepton and photon fields at aircraft altitudes. In addition to cosmic rays, energetic particles generated by solar activity bombard the earth from time to time. These particles, while less energetic than cosmic rays, also produce radiation fields at aircraft altitudes which have qualitatively the same properties as atmospheric cosmic rays. We have used a code based on transport theory to calculate atmospheric cosmic-ray quantities and compared them with experimental data. Agreement with these data is seen to be good. We have then used this code to calculate equivalent doses to aircraft crews. We have also used the code to calculate radiation doses from several large solar energetic particle events which took place in 1989, including the very large event that occurred on September 29^th and 30^th of that year. The spectra incident on the atmosphere were determined assuming diffusive shock theory.     

Sunspot cycle prediction using Warped Gaussian process regression

Solar cycle prediction is a key activity in space weather research. Several techniques have been employed in recent decades in order to try to forecast the next sunspot-cycle maxima and time. In this work, the Gaussian process, a machine-learning technique, is used to make a prediction for the solar cycle 25 based on the annual sunspot number 2.0 data from 1700 to 2018. A variation known as Warped Gaussian process is employed in order to deal with the non-negativity constraint and asymmetrical data distribution. Tests using holdout data yielded a root mean square error of 10.0 within 5 years and 25.0–35.0 within 10 years. Simulations using the predictive distribution were performed to account for the uncertainty in the prediction. Cycle 25 is expected to last from 2019 to 2029, with a peak sunspot number about 117 (110 by the median) occurring most likely in 2024. Thus our method predicts that solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than previous ones, implying a continuing trend of declining solar activity as observed in the past two cycles.     

Interpretation of observations on July 24, 1996 detected by Interball-1 as pulsed reconnection at low latitude magnetopause

A method for investigating reconnection events is presented. The approach is based on advantages of non-linear spectral analysis named by the Method of Global Minimum and magnetic field measurements. The technique allows to reveal a presence and plasma properties of different particle species, waves, and time intervals of development of non-linear processes in the reconnection layers. We put into practice the approach to study the event on July 24, 1996 detected by Interball-1 and interpreted as gross deformation of the dayside magnetopause of about 5 R_E caused by a process at the bow shock by (Sibeck et al., 1998). Our method of spectral analysis of the data reveals that plasma detected during the event consists of ions both solar wind and ionosphere origin. The spectrum of the magnetic field data is determined by periods caused by gyro-motions of different species of the solar wind plasma (Fe⁺⁶, O⁺⁶, He⁺⁺) and the ionosphere ions (N⁺⁺, He⁺), and power non-stationary (transient) oscillations at period T120 sec. (frequency8 mHz. We reveal the exchange of plasma from the solar wind to the magnetosphere during the event too. Based on results of our analysis we suggest that the simplest explanation of the discussed event is that these are signatures of transient reconnection of interplanetary and terrestrial magnetic fields.     

The potential for radiometric retrievals of halocarbon concentrations from the MIPAS-E instrument

Halocarbons, such as CFC-11, CFC-12 and HCFC-22, are important trace gases in the atmosphere through their role as greenhouse gases and their influence on stratospheric ozone chemistry. This paper focuses on an initial study using integration of spectral radiance measurements from a spaceborne limb sounding Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) to retrieve these compounds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The instrument employed in this study is the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding onboard ENVISAT (MIPAS-E) which obtains spectral data in the altitude range of 6–68 km at an unapodized spectral resolution of 0.025 cm⁻¹. We have used optimal estimation techniques to retrieve vertical information for these compounds using a radiometric approach.

It is shown that significant retrieval information is obtained at up to five measured levels in the UTLS for CFC-11, up to six for CFC-12 and up to two levels for HCFC-22. An initial error analysis indicates significant sensitivity of our retrievals to variability in operationally retrieved pressure and temperature data. For each halocarbon, gain, offset and spectroscopic uncertainties generally each contribute less than 10% to the total error. Finally, tracer correlations are used to compare the datasets to equivalent relationships derived here from version 2 ATMOS data with very good agreements for CFC-12 but with more variability in the CFC-11 comparisons.     

DE-1卫星对千米波辐射和极光嘶声的部分观测结果及分析

对DE-1卫星等离子体波的部分观测数据进行了处理,本文主要给出关于千米波辐射及极光嘶声的观测结果及分析.仅就带宽而言,千米波辐射可以从50kHz到大于400kHz,但峰值强度处于200kHz左右.电场谱密度可达10-11V2ni-2Hz-1或更大.其频率范围和强度随着卫星的观测地点而变化,但具有一个共同特征,就是在其频率范围内强度通常存在多个峰值.峰值的相对强度在迅速变化,峰值所对应的频率也在移动.极光嘶声则有明显的上截止频率和下截止频率.上截止频率或者是等离子体频率,或者是电子迴旋频率,看哪一个更小而定.而下截止频率主要是由于传播效应造成的.      

Solar activity and El-Niño signals observed in Brazil and Chile tree ring records

This work presents a review of the results obtained by research on solar–terrestrial relationships developed by analyzing tree growth rings from Southern Brazil and Chile. These studies were performed using harmonic spectral and wavelet analysis. The time interval covered by the samples is 200 yr for Brazil and 2500 yr for Chile. It was observed that sample trees from Southern Brazil are showing a ring growth response favorable to the increase of solar activity. Although periodicities associated to the 11 yr solar cycle were observed in sample trees from Chile, this relation was not so favorable as in Brazilian trees. However, Chile tree ring widths have a much better response to low period, which indicates that they are more adequate to study El Niño events environmental variations than those from Brazil.     

A new global F2 peak electron density model for the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)

A new neural network (NN) based global empirical model for the F2 peak electron density (NmF2) has been developed using extended temporal and spatial geophysical relevant inputs. Measured ground based ionosonde data, from 84 global stations, spanning the period 1995 to 2005 and, for a few stations from 1976 to 1986, obtained from various resources of the World Data Centre (WDC) archives (Space Physics Interactive Data Resource SPIDR, the Digital Ionogram Database, DIDBase, and IPS Radio and Space Services) have been used for training a NN. The training data set includes all periods of quiet and disturbed magnetic activity. A comprehensive comparison for all conditions (e.g., magnetic storms, levels of solar activity, season, different regions of latitudes, etc.) between foF2 value predictions using the NN based model and International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model (including both the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) coefficients) with observed values was investigated. The root-mean-square (RMS) error differences for a few selected stations are presented in this paper. The results of the foF2 NN model presented in this work successfully demonstrate that this new model can be used as a replacement option for the URSI and CCIR maps within the IRI model for the purpose of F2 peak electron density predictions.     

The equatorial ionization anomaly at the topside F region of the ionosphere along 75°E

Electron density measured by the Indian satellite SROSS C2 at the altitude of ∼500 km in the 75°E longitude sector for the ascending half of the solar cycle 22 from 1995 to 1999 are used to study the position and density of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Results show that the latitudinal position and peak electron density of the EIA crest and crest to trough ratios of the anomaly during the 10:00–14:00 LT period vary with season and from one year to another. Both EIA crest position and density are found to be asymmetric about the magnetic equator and the asymmetry depends on season as well as the year of observation, i.e., solar activity. The latitudinal position of the crest of the EIA and the crest density bears good positive correlation with F_10.7 and the strength of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ).     

Chandra observation of the interaction between the plasma nebula RCW89 and the pulsar jet of PSR B1509–58

We present a Chandra observation of the H II region RCW89. The nebula lies 10′ north from the central pulsar PSR B1509–58, and it has been suggested that the nebula is irradiated by the pulsar jet. We performed a spectral analysis of the seven brightest emitting regions aligned in a horse-shoe like shape, and found that the temperature of the knots increases along the horse-shoe in the clockwise direction, while, in contrast, the ionization parameter n_et decreases. This result implies that RCW89 was heated in sequence. We examined the energy budget assuming that RCW89 is powered by the pulsar jet. The rate of energy injection into RCW89 by the jet was estimated from the synchrotron radiation flux. We obtained a heating time-scale of 1400 yr, which is consistent with the pulsar characteristic age of 1700 yr. To explain the temperature gradient, we discuss the cooling process for plasma clouds in RCW89. We argue that the plasma clumps can be cooled down by the adiabatic expansion within 250 yr, and form the temperature gradient reflecting the sequential heating by the precessing pulsar jet.     

Fine-scale structure of solar magnetic fields

Seeing limitations of the earth's atmosphere have prevented us from spatially resolving most of the basic magnetic flux elements on the sun, since their sizes are all well below one sec of arc (excluding sunspots). No space experiment to overcome this limitation has yet been performed, but the first step will be taken with Spacelab 2.Direct mapping of the circular polarization in spectral lines provides us with information on the morphology and evolution of the partially resolved magnetic structures. In reviewing recent results, special attention is payed to the question of flux disappearance, since it is fundamental for understanding the solar cycle, and depends on a knowledge of the fine-scale structures.The strong-field (kG) nature of the photospheric flux was revealed more than a decade ago using polarization recordings in pairs of spectral lines. A breakthrough in the use of spectral information to deduce the properties of the spatially unresolved magnetic fluxtubes has recently been achieved through the conversion of a Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) into a polarimeter for Zeeman-effect recordings. We first use the FTS data to illustrate the diagnostic contents of the line-ratio technique, and then indicate how a statistical approach with 400 Fe I lines has recently been applied. In particular we discuss the implications of the observed Stokes V asymmetries for fluxtube dynamics.Finally the ongoing search for a small-scale “turbulent” magnetic field of mixed polarities is described. Observational limits derived from direct magnetograms, spectral line broadening, and the Hanle effect are illustrated.     

Effects of large scale magnetic fields in the dayside ionosphere of Venus

The ion density and magnetic field data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter for the first three dayside periapsis passes have been analysed to study the effect of the large-scale fields upon the dayside ion density profiles. The peak value of the O⁺ density in a strongly magnetised ionosphere often shows an enhancement as compared to a close non-magnetic orbit. Further, the height of the O⁺ peak shows a positive correlation with the height of the minimum of the magnetic field profile. Contrary to earlier findings, the compressional effects of the magnetic fields are observed even at near-terminator locations.     

太阳射电微波爆发的频谱分析

1981年4月1日太阳发生一个4N级Hα耀斑并伴随出现强烈的IV型射电爆发.本文对北京天文台,西澳大利亚站等射电资料进行分析.分析表明:(1)该事件的微波源状态相对稳定,米波源位置存在移动,因此产生微波辐射与米波辐射是两组不同的电子群体,在爆发频谱指数的时变曲线上表现出明显的形态差异.还由于两者辐射源的位置不同,微波与米波的爆发在峰值时刻上也不完全符合.(2)4月1日微波大爆发是由三个主爆发组成的,它们的峰值时刻分别为0135.1,0146.1,0153.6UT.由射电高频端谱指数算出的非热电子能谱指数表明,在射电爆发的三个峰值时刻电子能谱都变硬.本文还得出该活动区的非热电子平均速度(以光速c为单位)β为0.9左右,磁场强度B为430G.并由回旋同步辐射阻尼算得,非热电子的寿命为829秒,这个数值与三个主峰的持续时间相吻合.     

Coronal mass ejection interaction and particle acceleration during the 2001 April 14–15 events

Two successive solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with fast and wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on 2001 April 14 and 15 are compared. The weak SEP event of April 14 associated with an 830 km/s CME and an M1.0 flare was the largest impulsive event of cycle 23. The April 15 event, the largest ground level event of cycle 23, was three orders of magnitude more intense than the April 14^th event and was associated with a faster CME (1200 km/s) and an X14.4 flare. We compiled and compared all the activities (flares, CMEs, interplanetary conditions and radio bursts) associated with the two SEP events to understand the intensity difference between them. Different coronal and interplanetary environments of the two events (presence of preceding CME and seed particles ahead of the April 15 event) may explain the intensity difference.     

In situ observations of magnetic field fluctuations

It is well known that the irregularities of the magnetic field are intimately related to the motion of charged particles. Although transport theories need the spatial and time variations of the magnetic field as input, in situ observations are very limited. Ulysses observations have provided a major step forward by entering the unexplored high latitude regions of the heliosphere, the knowledge of which is vital to interpret particle flux measurements, even at the ecliptic. We analyze the magnetic field data of Ulysses during the mission to study the waves and discontinuities in the heliosphere at different locations, covering a total sunspot cycle. Various tools are employed, including power spectral and structure function analysis. A remarkable difference was found between the fluctuations in the fast and slow solar wind. We argue that the latitudinal extent of the high speed solar wind contributes significantly to the latitudinal variation of the transport parameters, which should also affect the 11 (and 22) year modulation cycle.     

导航卫星广播星历误差特性频域分析及预报模型

广播星历误差是影响卫星导航用户定位精度的重要因素之一。文章以GPS为例,应用误差频谱分析方法对GPS广播星历在频域内的误差特性进行分析,利用频谱分析模型及其与AR的混合模型对星历误差进行预报。分析结果表明,GPS广播星历具有明显的周期变化;频谱分析模型可以发现星历误差的主要周期变化,但预报精度不高;频谱分析和AR混合模型预报精度较高,经过误差补偿后,广播星历精度在0.5m以内(1σ)。     

Her X-1 as seen in the ROSAT all-sky survey

ROSAT performed the first, spectrally resolved, soft X-ray observations of Her X-1 in the SHORT-ON state of the 35^d cycle. The data were taken during the All-Sky survey covering the range 0.1–2.4 keV. The mean luminosity in the ROSAT bandpass is 1.5 × 10³⁶ ergs sec⁻¹. Timing analysis of the data revealed a highly significant signal at a period of 1.237749(1) sec. Finally, we present evidence to support the hypothesis that the resuction in intensity during the SHORT-ON state is caused by hot matter absorption in the disk.     

利用相似周方法预测第24活动周开始时间

利用相似周方法对第24活动周的开始时间与第23活动周下降相后期的太阳黑子数进行了预报.根据第23周已经出现的特征参量和下降相的形态特征,选取9,10,11,15,17和20等六个太阳活动周作为第23周下降相的相似周,对第24周开始时间进行预报.预报结果显示,第24活动周的开始时间为2007年5±1月,黑子数平滑月均极小值为7.1±2.6,第23太阳活动周长度为11.1年.与其他研究者的预报结果相比较,本文给出的结果与文献[11]和[12]及MSFC的结果比较一致.通过对相似周方法在下降相预测太阳活动周结束时间的研究讨论,及对第23周上升阶段的太阳黑子数和F10.7平滑月均值预报结果的评估,可以看出,相似周预报方法在太阳活动周长期预报中是很有应用价值的.