Using neural networks to determine the optimum solar input for the prediction of ionospheric parameters

Neural networks (NNs) are proving to be ideal tools for modeling the behaviour of the ionosphere. The NNs are trained using a database of archived data describing the relationship between the output parameter and an input space. The input space is designed from knowledge of those variables that affect the behaviour of the output parameter. For ionospheric parameters this input space would always include a solar variable due to the strong influence that the sun has on ionospheric behaviour.     

Spread-F occurrence during geomagnetic storms near the southern crest of the EIA in Argentina

This work presents, for the first time, the analysis of the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities during geomagnetic storms at Tucumán, Argentina, a low latitude station in the Southern American longitudinal sector (26.9°S, 294.6°E; magnetic latitude 15.5°S) near the southern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Three geomagnetic storms occurred on May 27, 2017 (a month of low occurrence rates of spread-F), October 12, 2016 (a month of transition from low to high occurrence rates of spread-F) and November 7, 2017 (a month of high occurrence rates of spread-F) are analyzed using Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers and ionosondes. The rate of change of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI), GPS Ionospheric L-band scintillation, the virtual height of the F-layer bottom side (h'F) and the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) are considered. Furthermore, each ionogram is manually examined for the presence of spread-F signatures.The results show that, for the three events studied, geomagnetic activity creates favorable conditions for the initiation of ionospheric irregularities, manifested by ionogram spread-F and TEC fluctuation. Post-midnight irregularities may have occurred due to the presence of eastward disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEF). For the May storm, an eastward over-shielding prompt penetration electric field, (PPEF) is also acting. A possibility is that the PPEF is added to the DDEF and produces the uplifting of the F region that helps trigger the irregularities. Finally, during October and November, strong GPS L band scintillation is observed associated with strong range spread-F (SSF), that is, irregularities extending from the bottom-side to the topside of the F region.     

Application of neural networks to South African GPS TEC modelling

The propagation of radio signals in the Earth’s atmosphere is dominantly affected by the ionosphere due to its dispersive nature. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provides relevant information that leads to the derivation of total electron content (TEC) which can be considered as the ionosphere’s measure of ionisation. This paper presents part of a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Vertical total electron content (VTEC) was calculated for four GPS receiver stations using the Adjusted Spherical Harmonic (ASHA) model. Factors that influence TEC were then identified and used to derive input parameters for the NN. The well established factors used are seasonal variation, diurnal variation, solar activity and magnetic activity. Comparison of diurnal predicted TEC values from both the NN model and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) with GPS TEC revealed that the IRI provides more accurate predictions than the NN model during the spring equinoxes. However, on average the NN model predicts GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI model over the GPS locations considered within South Africa.     

A new global version of M(3000)F2 prediction model based on artificial neural networks

A new version of global empirical model for the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2 prediction is presented. Artificial neural network (ANN) technique was employed by considering the relevant geophysical input parameters which are known to influence the M(3000)F2 parameter. This new version is an update to the previous neural network based M(3000)F2 global model developed by Oyeyemi et al. (2007), and aims to address the inadequacy of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) M(3000)F2 model (the International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) M(3000)F2 model). The M(3000)F2 has been found to be relatively inaccurate in representing the diurnal structure of the low latitude region and the equatorial ionosphere. In particular, the existing hmF2 IRI model is unable to reproduce the sharp post-sunset drop in M(3000)F2 values, which correspond to a sharp post-sunset peak in the peak height of the F2 layer, hmF2. Data from 80 ionospheric stations globally, including a good number of stations in the low latitude region were considered for this work. M(3000)F2 hourly values from 1987 to 2008, spanning all periods of low and high solar activity were used for model development and verification process. The ability of the new model to predict the M(3000)F2 parameter especially in the low latitude and equatorial regions, which is known to be problematic for the existing IRI model is demonstrated.     

Nighttime cloud properties retrieval using MODIS and artificial neural networks

In this work a methodology for inferring water cloud macro and microphysical properties from nighttime MODIS imagery is developed. This method is based on the inversion of a theoretical radiative transfer model that simulates the radiances detected in each of the sensor infrared bands. To accomplish this inversion, an operational technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is proposed, whose main characteristic is the ability to retrieve cloud properties much faster than conventional methods. Furthermore, a detailed study of input data is performed to avoid different sources of errors that appear in several MODIS infrared channels. Finally, results of applying the proposed method are compared with in-situ measurements carried out during the DYCOMS-II field experiment.     

An attempt to study long-term variation of sporadic E layers using neural networks

Strong positive correlation between sporadic E layers and the solar activity and the long-term declining trend of Es were found in this paper. Then the feed-forward back propagation neural networks (NNs) were used to simulate the long-term variation of Es at four stations and predict foEs yearly average values. The inputs used for NNs are the yearly mean values of foEs in the daytime of the past ten years and the yearly averaged data of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F107) of the present year, and the output is the present yearly mean value of daytime foEs. The outputs of trained NNs have high correlation with the desired values and the foEs yearly mean values predicted by NNs have good agreement with the observed data. The results indicate that NNs can make full use of the observed data to simulate the long variation rule of Es. Also, the results confirm the effect of solar activity on Es.     

Role of Equatorial Anomaly in Earthquake time precursive features: A few strong events over West Pacific zone

The earthquake (EQ) time coupling processes between equator-low-mid latitude ionosphere are complex due to inherent dynamical status of each latitudinal zone and qualified geomagnetic roles working in the system. In an attempt to identify such process, the paper presents temporal and latitudinal variations of ionization density (foF₂) covering 45°N to 35°S, during a number of earthquake events (M?>?5.5). The approaches adopted for extraction of features by the earthquake induced preparatory processes are discussed in the paper through identification of parameters like the ‘EQ time modification in density gradient’ defined by δ?=?(foF_{2 max}???foF_{2 min})∕τ_mm, where τ_mm – time span (in days) between EQ modified density maximum and minimum, and the Earthquake time Equatorial Anomaly, i.e. EEA, one of the most significant phenomenon which develops even during night time irrespective of epicenter position. Based on the observations, the paper presents the seismic time coupling dynamics through anomaly like manifestations between equator, low and mid latitude ionosphere bringing in the global Total Electron Content (TEC) features as supporting indices.     

A new global F2 peak electron density model for the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)

A new neural network (NN) based global empirical model for the F2 peak electron density (NmF2) has been developed using extended temporal and spatial geophysical relevant inputs. Measured ground based ionosonde data, from 84 global stations, spanning the period 1995 to 2005 and, for a few stations from 1976 to 1986, obtained from various resources of the World Data Centre (WDC) archives (Space Physics Interactive Data Resource SPIDR, the Digital Ionogram Database, DIDBase, and IPS Radio and Space Services) have been used for training a NN. The training data set includes all periods of quiet and disturbed magnetic activity. A comprehensive comparison for all conditions (e.g., magnetic storms, levels of solar activity, season, different regions of latitudes, etc.) between foF2 value predictions using the NN based model and International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model (including both the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) coefficients) with observed values was investigated. The root-mean-square (RMS) error differences for a few selected stations are presented in this paper. The results of the foF2 NN model presented in this work successfully demonstrate that this new model can be used as a replacement option for the URSI and CCIR maps within the IRI model for the purpose of F2 peak electron density predictions.     

Near-real time monitoring of the TEC fluctuations over the northern hemisphere using GNSS permanent networks

Since the early 1990s, global positioning system measurements have been used to study of the state and rapid changes of the Total Electron Content in the ionosphere. Currently, the increasing number of permanent stations makes it possible to generate maps of the irregularities in the ionosphere for specified regions with sub-daily resolution. The main goal of this work was to apply global navigation satellite system observations to obtain information about ionospheric variability around the North Geomagnetic Pole. In order to detect the ionospheric disturbances, 30-s observation data was used. The Rate of Total Electron Content Index was applied as a measure of the variability in the ionosphere. The first analyses were executed using more than 100 permanent stations. The results show two kinds of products: 2-hour maps in spherical geomagnetic coordinates and daily maps presenting the occurrence of the strong Total Electron Content fluctuations as a magnetic local time function, for the most disturbed days of April 2010. Apart from the main product of the algorithm, the Rate of Total Electron Content time series for individual satellite tracks was presented. The results demonstrated very good sensitivity of the obtained maps, which can detect even quite weak disturbances. The presented algorithm developed at the Geodynamic Research Laboratory of the University of Warmia and Mazury, in cooperation with Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation, will be applied in the near future to create near-real time service of the conditions in the ionosphere based on the Global Navigation Satellite Systems observations.     

A steady-state model for the D- to F-region of the polar cap

For obvious reasons the ionosphere of the polar cap, surrounded by the auroral zone, is only poorly investigated. Even ionosonde data are very scant from geomagnetic latitudes beyond 70°. Since 1997 the European incoherent scatter radar facility EISCAT has an additional installation on Svalbard and has been providing electron density data nearly continuously ever since. These measurements which mainly cover the E- and F-regions are supplemented by rocket data from Heiss Island at a comparable magnetic latitude; these data are more sporadic, but cover lower altitudes and densities. A provisional, steady-state, neural network-based model is presented which uses the data of both sites.     

Prediction of ionospheric total electron content using adaptive neural network with in-situ learning algorithm

The Ionospheric Total Electron Content is responsible for the group delay of the signals from the Navigation satellites. This delay causes ranging error, which in turn degrades the accuracy of position estimated by the receivers. For critical applications, single frequency receivers resort to Satellite Based Augmentation Systems in order to have improved accuracy and integrity. The performance of these systems in terms of accuracy can be improved if predictions of the delays are available simultaneously with real measurements. This paper attempts to predict the Total Electron Content using adaptive recurrent Neural Network at three different locations of India. These locations are selected at the magnetic equator, at the equatorial anomaly crest and outside the anomaly range, respectively. In-situ Learning Algorithm has been used for tracking the non-stationary nature of the variation. Prediction is done for different prediction intervals. It is observed that, for each case, the mean and root mean square values of prediction errors remain small enough for all practical applications. Analysis of Variance is also done on the results.     

A comparative study of ionospheric spread-F and scintillation at low- and mid-latitudes in China during the 24th solar cycle

The spread-F echo of ionograms and scintillation of satellite signal propagation along the Earth-space path are two typical phenomena induced by ionospheric irregularities. In this study, we obtained spread-F data from HF (high frequency) digital ionosonde and scintillation index (S4) data from L-band and UHF receivers at low- and mid-latitudes in China during the 24th solar cycle. These four sites were located at Haikou (HK) (20°N, 110.34°E), Kunming (KM) (25.64°N, 103.72°E), Qingdao (QD) (36.24°N, 120.42°E), and Manzhouli (MZL) (49.56°N, 117.52°E). We used these data to investigate spread-F and scintillation occurrence percentages and variations with local time, season, latitude and solar activity. A comparative study of spread-F and scintillation occurrence rates has been made. The main conclusions are as follows: (a) FSF occurred mostly during post-midnight, while RSF and scintillation appeared mainly during pre-midnight at HK and KM; (b) FSF occurrence rates were larger at QD and MZL than expected; (c) the FSF occurrence percentages were anti-correlated with solar activity at HK and KM; meanwhile RSF and scintillation occurrence rates increased with the increase of solar activity at this two sites; (d) the highest FSF occurrence rates mostly appeared during the summer months, while RSF and scintillation occurred mostly in the equinoctial months at HK and KM; (e) the scintillation occurrence was usually associated with the appearance of RSF, probably due to a different physical mechanism comparing with FSF. Some of these results verified the conclusions of previous papers, whereas some show slight difference. These results are important in understanding ionospheric irregularities variations characteristic at low- and mid-latitudes in China.     

Time constants in the ionosphere from neural network models

Neural network (NN) models for the low latitude and the polar ionosphere from the D- to the F-region were developed which are based on incoherent scatter radar data from Arecibo and EISCAT Svalbard, respectively. The various geophysical input parameters defining the NN are not only the ones that represent the time one wants to predict, but also the geophysical conditions prior to the time of the prediction. The optimum length of these preceding periods are derived for the two models are different, but a period of 60 days is a compromise acceptable for both latitudes. Furthermore from the Arecibo data time constants of electron density decay after sundown are derived which – arguably – are also relevant elsewhere, including the polar latitudes. Whereas at all altitudes the electron densities decay exponentially after sundown, below 300 km there is an additional variation with solar zenith angle.     

An investigation of ionospheric F region response in the Brazilian sector to the super geomagnetic storm of May 2005

In this paper, we have investigated the responses of the ionospheric F region at equatorial and low latitude regions in the Brazilian sector during the super geomagnetic storm on 15–16 May 2005. The geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst of −263 nT at 0900 UT on 15 May. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (vTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations obtained at Belém, Brasília, Presidente Prudente, and Porto Alegre, Brazil, during the period 14–17 May 2005. Also, we present ionospheric parameters h’F, hpF2, and foF2, using the Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI) obtained at Palmas and São José dos Campos, Brazil, for the same period. The super geomagnetic storm has fast decrease in the Dst index soon after SSC at 0239 UT on 15 May. It is a good possibility of prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin resulting in uplifting of the F region. The vTEC observations show a trough at BELE and a crest above UEPP, soon after SSC, indicating strengthening of nighttime equatorial anomaly. During the daytime on 15 and 16 May, in the recovery phase, the variations in foF2 at SJC and the vTEC observations, particularly at BRAZ, UEPP, and POAL, show large positive ionospheric storm. There is ESF on the all nights at PAL, in the post-midnight (UT) sector, and phase fluctuations only on the night of 14–15 May at BRAZ, after the SSC. No phase fluctuations are observed at the equatorial station BELE and low latitude stations (BRAZ, UEPP, and POAL) at all other times. This indicates that the plasma bubbles are generated and confined on this magnetically disturbed night only up to the low magnetic latitude and drifted possibly to west.     

Diagnostics of equatorial and low latitude ionosphere by TEC mapping over Brazil

The total electron content (TEC) in the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere over Brazil was monitored in two dimensions by using 2011 data from the ground-based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receiver network operated by the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics. It was possible to monitor the spatial and temporal variations in TEC over Brazil continuously during both day and night with a temporal interval of 10 min and a spatial resolution of about 400 km. The daytime equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and post-sunset plasma enhancement (PS-EIA) were monitored over an area corresponding to a longitudinal extension of 4000 km in South America. Considerable day-to-day variation was observed in EIA and PS-EIA. A large latitudinal and longitudinal gradient of TEC indicated a significant ionospheric range error in application of the GNSS positioning system. Large-scale plasma bubbles after sunset were also mapped over a wide range. Depletions with longitudinally separated by more than 800 km were observed. They were extended by more than 2000 km along the magnetic field lines and drifted eastward. It is expected that 2-dimensional TEC mapping can serve as a useful tool for diagnosing ionospheric weather, such as temporal and spatial variation in the equatorial plasma trough and crest, and particularly for monitoring the dynamics of plasma bubbles.     

Observations of ionospheric irregularities and its correspondence with sporadic e occurrence over South Korea and Japan

This study analyzed the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities over South Korea and Japan (mid-latitudes) during the years 2010–2015. The irregularities were quantified using the rate of change of total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI), which detects irregularities with scale sizes in the range of 400 m–2.5 km. The ROTI threshold for an ionospheric irregularity to have occurred was set as 0.1 TECU/min. Results showed that ionospheric irregularities mostly occur during night-time and around local noon-time in the seasons of spring and summer. In addition, the percentage of ionospheric irregularities had a high positive correlation with solar flux (F10.7) (r > 0.72). For the first time, we showed good correspondence between ionospheric irregularities measured by the ROTI index and sporadic E (Es). The median ROTI associated with ionospheric irregularities over a South Korea station (DAEJ) and a Japan station (KGNI) were 0.131 and 0.125 TECU/min, respectively. However, in severe cases of ionospheric irregularities, the ROTI values over DAEJ (KGNI) can reach 0.246 (0.217) and 0.314 (0.339) TECU/min during day and night, respectively. These critical ROTI values can be important in interpreting and monitoring ionospheric irregularity occurrence over South Korea and Japan.     

Coordinated in situ measurements of plasma irregularities and ground based scintillation observations at the crest of equatorial anomaly

First comparison of in situ density fluctuations measured by the DEMETER satellite with ground based GPS receiver measurements at the equatorial anomaly station Bhopal (geographic coordinates (23.2°N, 77.6°E); geomagnetic coordinates (14.29°N, 151.12°E)) for the low solar activity year 2005, are presented in this paper. Calculation of the diurnal maximum of the strength of the equatorial electrojet, which can serve as precursor to ionospheric scintillations in the anomaly region is also done. The Langmuir Probe experiment and Plasma Analyzer onboard DEMETER measure the electron and ion densities respectively. Irregularities in electron density distribution cause scintillations on transionospheric links and there exists a close relationship between an irregularity and scintillation. In 40% of the cases, DEMETER detects the irregularity structures (dNe/Ne ? 5% and dNi/Ni (O⁺) ? 5%) and GPS L band scintillations (S4 ? 0.2) are also observed around the same time, for the low solar activity period. It is found that maximum irregularity intensity is obtained in the geomagnetic latitude range of 10–20° for both electron density and ion density. As the GPS signals pass through this irregularity structure, scintillations are recorded by the GPS receiver installed at the equatorial anomaly station, Bhopal it is interesting to note that in situ density fluctuations observed on magnetic flux tubes that pass over Bhopal can be used as indicator of ionospheric scintillations at that site. Many cases of density fluctuations and associated scintillations have been observed during the descending low solar activity period. The percentage occurrence of density irregularities and scintillations shows good correspondence with diurnal maximum of the strength of electrojet, however this varies with different seasons with maximum correspondence in summer (up to 66%) followed by equinox (up to 50%) and winter (up to 46%). Also, there is a threshold value of EEJ strength to produce density irregularities ((dNe/Ne)_max ? 5%) and for moderate to strong scintillations (S4 ? 0.3) to occur. For winter this value is found to be ∼40 nT whereas for equinox and summer it is around 50 nT.     

The equatorial ionization anomaly at the topside F region of the ionosphere along 75°E

Electron density measured by the Indian satellite SROSS C2 at the altitude of ∼500 km in the 75°E longitude sector for the ascending half of the solar cycle 22 from 1995 to 1999 are used to study the position and density of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Results show that the latitudinal position and peak electron density of the EIA crest and crest to trough ratios of the anomaly during the 10:00–14:00 LT period vary with season and from one year to another. Both EIA crest position and density are found to be asymmetric about the magnetic equator and the asymmetry depends on season as well as the year of observation, i.e., solar activity. The latitudinal position of the crest of the EIA and the crest density bears good positive correlation with F_10.7 and the strength of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ).     

Longitudinal behaviors of the IRI-B parameters of the equatorial electron density profiles retrieved from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultation measurements

The electron density profiles in the bottomside F₂-layer ionosphere are described by the thickness parameter B0 and the shape parameter B1 in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. We collected the ionospheric electron density (N_e) profiles from the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) radio occultation measurements from DoY (day number of year) 194, 2006 to DoY 293, 2008 to investigate the daytime behaviors of IRI-B parameters (B0 and B1) in the equatorial regions. Our fittings confirm that the IRI bottomside profile function can well describe the averaged profiles in the bottomside ionosphere. Analysis of the equatorial electron density profile datasets provides unprecedented detail of the behaviors of B0 and B1 parameters in equatorial regions at low solar activity. The longitudinal averaged B1 has values comparable with IRI-2007 while it shows little seasonal variation. In contrast, the observed B0 presents semiannual variation with maxima in solstice months and minima in equinox months, which is not reproduced by IRI-2007. Moreover, there are complicated longitudinal variations of B0 with patterns varying with seasons. Peaks are distinct in the wave-like longitudinal structure of B0 in equinox months. An outstanding feature is that a stable peak appears around 100°E in four seasons. The significant longitudinal variation of B0 provides challenges for further improving the presentations of the bottomside ionosphere in IRI.     

The spatio-spectral localization approach to modeling VTEC over the western part of the USA using GPS observations

The precise ionosphere modeling is crucial and remains a challenge for GPS positioning and navigation, as well as many other Earth observation systems. In this research, two approaches have been proposed to model the vertical total electron content (VTEC) of the ionosphere using spherical slepian function. For the two-dimensional case, VTEC has been modeled in a sun-fixed reference frame and the three-dimensional approach based on the system of the three-dimensional base functions has been defined as the tensor product of the spherical slepian function for the longitude and latitude in an Earth-fixed reference frame, and the polynomial B-spline function for time. Rather than the spherical harmonics, the spherical slepian functions can be employed to produce the locally and globally orthogonal bases to optimally represent the data in any arbitrary region up to a given degree. The spherical slepian functions have been applied to the real data obtained from the ground-based GPS observation across the western part of the USA.