Cosmic radiation exposure of aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights during solar proton events from 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008

From 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008, GOES satellites recorded 170 solar proton events. For 169 of these events, we estimated effective and equivalent dose rates and doses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar cosmic radiation (SCR), received by aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights. Dose rate and dose estimates that follow are for altitudes 30, 40, 50, and 60 kft, in that order.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Response of the Earth’s lower ionosphere to the Ground Level Enhancement event of December 13, 2006

In this study we analyze the Ground Level Enhancement Event No 70 observed on December 13, 2006, by correlating the observations from two research topics: Cosmic rays and Very Low Frequency (VLF < 30 kHz) wave propagation, as two ground based techniques for the detection of solar proton events, and their impact on the lower ionosphere. The observations have been endorsed from recordings of worldwide network ground based Neutron Monitors as well as by satellite data from the satellites GOES 12 (www.swpc.noaa.gov) and Pamela (www.pamela.roma2infn.it).     

The solar-terrestrial event of 23 February 1956

The solar flare of 23 February 1956 and the resulting geophysical disturbance ranks as one of the most remarkable solar-terrestrial events of the twentieth century. It sparked many papers and has seldom been equalled. Fifty years after the International Geophysical Year, it seems timely to review the observations of the event from today’s perspective, and to draw on the recollections of scientists who were active at the time.     

Comparison of the transport codes HZETRN,HETC and FLUKA for a solar particle event

The protection of astronauts and instrumentation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events is one of the primary constraints associated with mission planning in low earth orbit or deep space. To help satisfy this constraint, several computational tools have been developed to analyze the effectiveness of various shielding materials and structures exposed to space radiation. These tools are now being carefully scrutinized through a systematic effort of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. In this benchmark study, the deterministic transport code HZETRN is compared to the Monte Carlo transport codes HETC-HEDS and FLUKA for a 30 g/cm² water target protected by a 20 g/cm² aluminum shield exposed to a parameterization of the February 1956 solar particle event. Neutron and proton fluences as well as dose and dose equivalent are compared at various depths in the water target. The regions of agreement and disagreement between the three codes are quantified and discussed, and recommendations for future work are given.     

Relativistic solar protons in the ground level event of 23 February 1956: New study

In this study we applied again to the outstanding solar particle event of 23 February 1956, the largest one in the entire history of observations of solar cosmic rays. Due to significant improvement of the analysis/modeling techniques and new understanding of physical processes in the solar atmosphere and interplanetary space, a possibility arises to interpret the old data in the light of modern concept of multiple particle acceleration at/near the Sun. In our new analysis the data of available then neutron monitors and muon telescopes are used. The technique of the analysis includes: (a) calculation of asymptotic cones of ground-based detectors; (b) modeling of cosmic ray detector responses at variable parameters of the flux of solar relativistic protons; (c) determination of primary solar proton parameters outside magnetosphere by comparison of computed responses with observations. Certain evidence was obtained that the flux of relativistic solar protons consisted of two distinct components: prompt and delayed ones. The prompt component with exponential energy spectrum caused a giant impulse-like increase at a number of European cosmic ray stations. The delayed component had a power-law spectrum and was a cause of gradual increase at cosmic ray stations in the North American region. A numerical simulation of the proton acceleration in the vicinity of the magnetic reconnection region brings to the proton spectrum with exponential dependence on energy. This agrees with observational data for the prompt component. It is also shown that the huge increase in ∼5000% on neutron monitors was due to the prompt component only with the exponential proton spectrum. The power-law spectrum of comparable intensity gave considerably smaller effect.     

Estimation of the solar proton spectrum in the GLE70 event

The GLE event on December 13, 2006 as observed by network station neutron monitor data is investigated (is considered). The GLE energetic spectrum suggested for this event is estimated taking into account the primary differential spectrum of galactic cosmic rays, coupling coefficients and integral multiplicities of concrete detectors at different latitudes and levels of observation. It is noted that the additional increase of solar protons is also manifested in the ionization chamber ASK-1 data at the Yakutsk station.     

Study on solar sources and polar cap absorption events recorded in Antarctica

Particularly intense events occurred on the Sun in a period around minimum of solar activity during cycle 23. We investigated the characteristics of September 2005 and December 2006 events and the properties of the correlated observations of ionospheric absorption, obtained by a 30 MHz riometer installed at Mario Zucchelli Station (MZS-Antarctica), and of geomagnetic activity recorded at Scott Base (Antarctica). Solar events are studied using the characteristics of CMEs measured with SoHO/LASCO coronagraphs and the temporal evolution of solar energetic protons in different energy ranges measured by GOES 11 spacecraft.     

Thermal neutrons’ response to the GLEs

Thermal neutrons’ flux near the Earth’s crust is very sensitive regarding different processes and phenomena both in the near-Earth space and in the Earth’s crust by reason of the dual nature of the thermal neutron flux. Its first source is associated with high-energy particles of cosmic rays penetrating into the Earth’s atmosphere and interacting with its elements. The second source originates from the radioactive gases contained in the Earth’s crust. So the contributions of these two sources are specified by the Earth’s crust conditions and its movements, on one hand and variations of high-energy particles flux near the Earth.     

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.     

Identification of high energy solar particle signals on the Mexico City neutron monitor database

We performed a search for ground level solar cosmic ray enhancements on the full five minute database of the Mexico City neutron monitor using wavelet filters and two different statistical tests. We present a detailed analysis of the time series of November 2, 1992, where we found a previously unreported increment matching the onset time of the impulsive phase of GLE 54, thus providing evidence of an effective detection of high energy solar cosmic rays.     

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

First results of ozone profiles between 35 and 65 km retrieved from SCIAMACHY limb spectra and observations of ozone depletion during the solar proton events in October/November 2003

Ozone density profiles between 35 and 65 km altitude are derived from scattered sunlight limb radiance spectra measured by the SCIAMACHY instrument on the Envisat satellite. The method is based on the inversion of normalized limb radiance profiles in the Hartley absorption bands of ozone at selected wavelengths between 250 and 310 nm. It employs a non-linear Newtonian iteration version of Optimal Estimation (OE) coupled with the radiative transfer model SCIARAYS. The limb scatter technique combined with a classical OE retrieval in the short-wave UV-B and long-wave UV-C delivers reliable results as shown by a first comparison with MIPAS V4.61 profiles yielding agreement within 10% between 38 and 55 km. An overview of the methodology and an initial error analysis are presented. Furthermore the effect of the solar proton storm between 28 October and 6 November 2003 on the ozone concentration profiles is shown. They indicate large depletion of ozone of about 60% at 50 km in the Northern hemisphere, a weaker depletion in the Southern hemisphere and a dependence of the depletion on the Earth’s magnetic field.     

Statistical study of the detection of solar protons of highest energies at 20 January 2005

On January 20, 2005, 7:02–7:04 UT the Aragats Multichannel Muon Monitor (AMMM) registered enhancement of the high energy secondary muon flux (energy threshold ∼5 GeV). The enhancement, lasting 3 min, has statistical significance of ∼4σ and is related to the X7.1 flare seen by the GOES satellite and the ground level enhancement detected by the world-wide network of neutron monitors and by muon detectors. The most probable proton energy corresponding to the measured 5 GeV muon flux is within 23–30 GeV. Due to upmost importance of the detection of solar particles of highest energies in presented paper we perform detailed statistical analysis of the detected peak. The statistical technique introduced in the paper is also appropriate for the searches of sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays.     

On the correlation of the solar wind observed at the L5 point and at the Earth

The L5 point is a promising location for forecasting co-rotating high-speed streams in the solar wind arriving at the Earth. We correlated the solar wind data obtained by the Nozomi spacecraft in interplanetary space and by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) at the L1 point, and found that the correlation is significantly improved from that of the 27-day recurrence of ACE data. Based on the correlation between the two spacecraft observations, we estimated the correlation of the solar wind velocity between the L5 point and at the Earth, and found that the correlation coefficient was about 0.78 in late 1999, while that of the 27-day recurrence was 0.51. Eighty-eight percent of the velocity difference falls within 100 km/s between the L5 point and the Earth. This demonstrates the potential capability of solar wind monitoring at the L5 point to forecast the geomagnetic disturbances 4.5 days in advance.     

VHF radio response of the near Earth space during solar activity growth in October, 2003

The analysis of observations of very high frequency radio noise intensity at the middle latitude on a frequency f = 500 MHz from 14th till 26th of October, 2003 is presented. These data are compared with the solar radio bursts in the range of frequencies 1–14 MHz registered by RAD2 receiver of the WAVES device installed on board the WIND spacecraft.     

Estimation of Galactic Cosmic Ray exposure inside and outside the Earth’s magnetosphere during the recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24

The evidently low solar activity observed between solar cycles 23 and 24 during the years 2008–2010 led to a substantial increase in the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity in comparison with preceding solar minima. As the GCRs consist of highly-ionizing charged particles having the potential to cause biological damage, they are a subject of concern for manned missions to space. With the enhanced particle fluxes observed between 2008 and 2010, it is reasonable to assume that the radiation exposure from GCR must have also increased to unusually high levels. In this paper, the GCR exposure outside and inside the Earth’s magnetosphere is numerically calculated for time periods starting from 1970 to the end of 2011 in order to investigate the increase in dose levels during the years 2008–2010 in comparison with the last three solar minima. The dose rates were calculated in a water sphere, used as a surrogate for the human body, either unshielded or surrounded by aluminium shielding of 0.3, 10 or 40 g/cm².     

Physics of ion acceleration in the solar flare on 2005 September 7 determines γ-ray and neutron production

Relativistic neutrons were observed by the neutron monitors at Mt. Chacaltaya and Mexico City and by the solar neutron telescopes at Chacaltaya and Mt. Sierra Negra in association with an X17.0 flare on 2005 September 7. The neutron signal continued for more than 20 min with high statistical significance. Intense emissions of γ-rays were also registered by INTEGRAL, and during the decay phase by RHESSI. We analyzed these data using the solar-flare magnetic-loop transport and interaction model of Hua et al. [Hua, X.-M., Kozlovsky, B., Lingenfelter, R.E. et al. Angular and energy-dependent neutron emission from solar flare magnetic loops, Astrophys. J. Suppl. Ser. 140, 563–579, 2002], and found that the model could successfully fit the data with intermediate values of loop magnetic convergence and pitch-angle scattering parameters. These results indicate that solar neutrons were produced at the same time as the γ-ray line emission and that ions were continuously accelerated at the emission site.