Solar,geomagnetic and long term effects on thermospheric neutral kinetic temperatures at midlatitude

Measurements of midlatitude thermospheric neutral kinetic temperatures obtained from 1972 to 1979 have been used to investigate the effects of solar and geomagnetic activity, as well as long term effects, on the thermosphere. With these data a simple power law relationship between the temperature and solar activity (expressed as the 2.8 GHz solar radio flux) has been found to give a high correlation. In addition, a linear relationship between temperature changes and geomagnetic activity (expressed as Ap), as well as annual and semiannual effects have been found. The annual variation is found to be indistinguishable in phase from the annual variation of the solar declination angle. The present four parameter formulation gives a better fit to the data than is obtained with available empirical models of the thermosphere, and this has allowed us to investigate the properties and postulates of some of these models.     

强磁暴、能量粒子暴与热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系

利用1997-2007年由GOES8, GOES11和GOES12星载高能粒子探测器在地球同步轨道高度上所探测到的高能质子和高能电子通量探测数据以及高度560km左右星载大气密度探测器所得的热层大气密度探测数据, 统计分析了强地磁扰动、高能粒子通量跃变和热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系, 初步获得强地磁扰动期间, 地球同步轨道(外辐射带外环)均出现了增幅大于三个数量级的高能质子通量(尤其是E>1MeV)强增强现象, 随后热 层大气密度强烈上涨, 表明三者之间是正相关关系. 在时间上地球同步轨道高能质子通量强增强现象先于日均Ap值(地磁活动程度)上涨约一天左右, 而热层大气密度强涨落现象又明显滞后于强地磁扰动事件.      

Recent advances in upper atmospheric structure

A possible quantitative explanation of the semi-annual variation in thermospheric density has been obtained in terms of a semi-annual variation in the computed globally averaged vertical energy carried by propagating tides from the lower and middle atmosphere into the thermosphere. The effect is primarily due to seasonal changes in the distribution of water vapor and in the solar declination angle and Sun-Earth distance. An MSIS-83 empirical model of the thermosphere, representing a revision of the earlier MSIS models, has been prepared. The database used covers a wider range of solar activity than previous models and an improved magnetic storm representation is included. Atomic oxygen profiles in the 100 to 160 km altitude region of the auroral thermosphere have been recalculated from measured quenching of N₂(A³∑_u⁺) using the latest laboratory rates and the results are in good agreement with the mean CIRA 1972 profile. A new empirical model of thermospheric variations with geomagnetic activity has been developed incorporating variations with local magnetic time, latitude dependent terms which can vary with the magnitude of the geomagnetic disturbance, and an altitude dependent expression for the equatorial wave. A new index ML, derived from the AL index, has been developed that appears to have promise to represent the variations of thermospheric species with geomagnetic activity. Satellite measured values of solar UV flux, ground-based observations of CaK plages, sunspot numbers and 10.7 cm solar radio flux have been analyzed for temporal variations. Some differences have been identified and the significance to empirical and theoretical upper atmosphere models is discussed.     

基于轨道预报的热层模式评估

在太阳活动高低年的地磁平静/扰动环境下,利用不同热层大气模式J77,DTM78,MSIS00,JB2008和CHAMP加速度计反演密度,分析有无先验信息条件下的轨道预报误差.结果表明无先验信息的精密轨道预报中,热层模式的性能可能被弹道系数等参数偏差干扰,此时预报误差不能作为模式性能的评价标准.先验信息对轨道预报精度提升非常明显,尤其是地磁扰动期先进热层模式性能得以展现,轨道预报误差为无先验信息情况下的10%～25%.目前热层模式的主要缺陷存在于地磁扰动期.各模式之间的差异是:JB2008模式可以通过线性和单一频率周期项补偿,而J77及DTM78等模式还存在更多频率的误差.本文对不同情况下精密轨道预报的研究结果可为空间碎片碰撞预警等工程实践提供参考.      

Properties of the neutral density and composition in the thermosphere

Measurements of the density and composition of the thermosphere between 150 and 500 km, which were obtained by the S3-1 satellite, have been compared with the Jacchia and MSIS models. The measurements of the densities of O, N₂, N and Ar show some differences from the current models which should be considered during the preparation of the next CIRA model. The Ar measurements are particularly useful in examining the response of the neutral atmosphere to geomagnetic heating. These results are useful in establishing the appropriate lower boundary conditions for modeling of the thermosphere.     

Comparison of the observed and modeled low- to mid-latitude thermosphere response to magnetic activity: Effects of solar cycle and disturbance time delay

The performance of JB2008 and NRLMSISE-00 models, in describing the response of the thermosphere to magnetic activity are evaluated against total mass density retrieved from accelerometer measurements made onboard CHAMP satellite during 5 years. We show that the global low- to mid-latitude disturbance amplitude is correctly described by the JB2008 model for low solar activity conditions and by both the JB2008 and the NRLMSISE-00 models for high solar activity conditions. For low solar activity conditions, statistics based on almost 3 years of data confirm the large underestimation by the NRLMSISE-00 model quantified by Lathuillère et al. (2008) for the year 2004. We also found that the time delay between low- to mid-latitude global thermosphere disturbance and magnetic activity is statistically well estimated by the NRLMSISE-00 and JB2008 models for disturbed conditions. For moderately disturbed conditions however, the time delay estimated by the JB2008 model is too large by about 3 h. For very disturbed conditions, we found different time delays during day-time and night-time, using new geomagnetic proxies with a 30-min time resolution.     

Ionospheric response to solar and magnetospheric protons during January 15–22, 2005: EAGLE whole atmosphere model results

We present an analysis of the ionosphere and thermosphere response to Solar Proton Events (SPE) and magnetospheric proton precipitation in January 2005, which was carried out using the model of the entire atmosphere EAGLE. The ionization rates for the considered period were acquired from the AIMOS (Atmospheric Ionization Module Osnabrück) dataset. For numerical experiments, we applied only the proton-induced ionization rates of that period, while all the other model input parameters, including the electron precipitations, corresponded to the quiet conditions. In January 2005, two major solar proton events with different energy spectra and proton fluxes occurred on January 17 and January 20. Since two geomagnetic storms and several sub-storms took place during the considered period, not only solar protons but also less energetic magnetospheric protons contributed to the calculated ionization rates. Despite the relative transparency of the thermosphere for high-energy protons, an ionospheric response to the SPE and proton precipitation from the magnetotail was obtained in numerical experiments. In the ionospheric E layer, the maximum increase in the electron concentration is localized at high latitudes, and at heights of the ionospheric F2 layer, the positive perturbations were formed in the near-equatorial region. An analysis of the model-derived results showed that changes in the ionospheric F2 layer were caused by a change in the neutral composition of the thermosphere. We found that in the recovery phase after both solar proton events and the enhancement of magnetospheric proton precipitations associated with geomagnetic disturbances, the TEC and electron density in the F region and in topside ionosphere/plasmasphere increase at low- and mid-latitudes due to an enhancement of atomic oxygen concentration. Our results demonstrate an important role of magnetospheric protons in the formation of negative F-region ionospheric storms. According to our results, the topside ionosphere/plasmasphere and bottom-side ionosphere can react to solar and magnetospheric protons both with the same sign of disturbances or in different way. The same statement is true for TEC and foF2 disturbances. Different disturbances of foF2 and TEC at high and low latitudes can be explained by topside electron temperature disturbances.     

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

Storm-time atmospheric density modeling using neural networks and its application in orbit propagation

Upper atmospheric densities during geomagnetic storms are usually poorly estimated due to a lack of clear understanding of coupling mechanisms between the thermosphere and magnetosphere. Consequently, the orbit determination and propagation for low-Earth-orbit objects during geomagnetic storms have large uncertainties. Artificial neural networks are often used to identify nonlinear systems in the absence of rigorous theory. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the storm-time atmospheric density using neural networks. Considering the debate over the representative of geomagnetic storm effect, i.e. the geomagnetic indices ap and Dst, three neural network models (NNM) are developed with ap, Dst and a combination of ap and Dst respectively. The density data used for training the NNMs are derived from the measurements of the satellites CHAMP and GRACE. The NNMs are evaluated by looking at: (a) the mean residuals and the standard deviations with respect to the density data that are not used in training process, and (b) the accuracy of reconstructing the orbits of selected objects during storms employing each model. This empirical modeling technique and the comparisons with the models NRLMSIS-00 and Jacchia-Bowman 2008 reveal (1) the capability of neural networks to model the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities, and density variations; and (2) the merits and demerits of ap and Dst when it comes to characterizing density variations during storms.     

CHANGES OF THE THERMOSPHERE DENSITY IN THE SUNSHINE AND SHADE AREA OBSERVED BY "SZ-2" ATMOSPHERIC DENSITY DETECTOR

In this paper, thermosphere density data of "SZ-2" Atmospheric Density Detec tor From February to April 2001 are used to study the changes of the thermo sphere density in the sunshine and shaded area during solar and geomagnetic activity. The results show that in the sunshine area, the peak value of atmo spheric density changes as F10.7 varies; during geomagnetic activity, the peak value of atmospheric density in the shaded area increases as Ap increases, and start off with higher latitude, therefore move to lower latitude.     

"神舟二号"大气密度探测器的探测结果Ⅱ.在太阳和地磁扰动期间高层大气密度的变化

选用了Sz—2大气密度探测器在2001年2—4月间的探测数据,进行日照和阴影区域热层大气密度对太阳和地磁活动程度的响应变化的探讨．结果表明,日照区大气密度峰值主要随F10.7值而变,在地磁扰动期间,阴影区大气密度对扰动的响应更明显,通常响应变化开始于高纬度地区,然后向低纬度地区推移．     

太阳极紫外辐射对热层大气密度的影响

对2001-2021年SOHO卫星的极紫外辐射测量数据,以及CHAMP,GRACE-A和SWARM-C卫星资料推导出的高分辨率大气密度数据进行统计分析,发现大气密度与极紫外测量值的相关系数大于密度与F10.7指数的相关系数,证实极紫外辐射在不同地方时的影响程度存在显著差异,从而驱动大气密度的周日变化。利用三颗卫星的高度差异揭示极紫外辐射对大气密度的加热效应在350～500 km范围随着高度增加而减弱。统计得到极紫外辐射影响在地方时和纬度上的空间差异：对夏季半球的影响大于冬季半球;在白天,对中纬度地区的影响高于赤道和高纬度地区;在夜间,密度对辐射的斜率在夏季半球高纬度地区存在峰值,在冬季半球中纬度存在谷值,模型DTM2000和NRLMSISE00未能准确刻画。为了改进经验模型,提出基于球谐函数的拟合方法,优于主流模型周日效应采用的表达式,对周日效应建模和修正提供有益借鉴。利用昼夜间能量传输和热层大气经向环流机制探讨了统计结果的物理机制。     

Modeling of ionospheric parameter variations in East Asia during the moderate geomagnetic disturbances

The results of modeling of ionospheric disturbances observed in the East Asian region during moderate storms are presented. The numerical model for ionosphere–plasmasphere coupling developed at the ISTP SB RAS is used to interpret the data of observations at ionospheric stations located in the longitudinal sector of 90–130°E at latitudes from auroral zone to equator. There is obtained a reasonable agreement between measurements and modeling results for winter and equinox. In the summer ionosphere, at the background of high ionization by the solar EUV radiation in the quiet geomagnetic period the meridional thermospheric wind strongly impacts the electron concentration in the middle and auroral ionosphere. The consistent calculations of the thermospheric wind permit to obtain the model results which are closer to summer observations. The actual information about the space-time variations of thermosphere and magnetosphere parameters should be taken into account during storms.     

Solar polar magnetic field dependency of geomagnetic activity semiannual variation indicated in the Aa index

Three major hypotheses have been proposed to explain the well-known semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity, maxima at equinoxes and minima at solstices. This study examined whether the seasonal variation of equinoctial geomagnetic activity is different in periods of opposite solar magnetic polarity in order to understand the contribution of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the Sun-Earth connection. Solar magnetic polarity is parallel to the Earth’s polarity in solar minimum years of odd/even cycles but antiparallel in solar minimum years of even/odd cycles. The daily mean of the aa, Aa indices during each solar minimum was compared for periods when the solar magnetic polarity remained in opposite dipole conditions. The Aa index values were used for each of the three years surrounding the solar minimum years of the 14 solar cycles recorded since 1856. The Aa index reflects seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity, which is greater at the equinoxes than at the solstices. The Aa index reveals solar magnetic polarity dependency in which the geomagnetic activity is stronger in the antiparallel solar magnetic polarity condition than in the parallel one. The periodicity in semiannual variation of the Aa index is stronger in the antiparallel solar polar magnetic field period than in the parallel period. Additionally, we suggest the favorable IMF condition of the semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity. The orientation of IMF toward the Sun in spring and away from the Sun in fall mainly contributes to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in both antiparallel and parallel solar minimum years.     

Thermospheric tides during thermosphere mapping study periods

Neutral exospheric temperatures at 53°, 43° and 33° latitude from Millstone Hill steerable-antenna Thomson scatter measurements, and at 19° latitude from the Arecibo Observatory, obtained during three Thermosphere Mapping Study (TMS) coordinated campaign intervals during 1984 and 1985, are analyzed for diurnal and semidiurnal tidal components. The resulting amplitude and phase latitudinal structures are compared with numerical simulations. The observed semidiurnal tidal components are thought to be significantly affected by tidal waves propagating upwards from below the thermosphere during these solar minimum periods. We speculate that current inadequacies in specifying F-region plasma densities and mean zonal winds at lower altitudes within the simulation model may account for certain discrepancies between observations and theory.     

Mid-latitude thermospheric zonal winds during the equinoxes

The diurnal variation of the mid-latitude upper thermosphere zonal winds during equinoxes has been studied using data recently generated from CHAMP measurements from 2002 to 2004 using an iterative algorithm. The wind data was separated into two geomagnetic activity levels, representing high geomagnetic activity level (Ap > 8) and low geomagnetic activity level (Ap ? 8). The data were further separated into two solar flux levels; with F10.7 > 140 for high and F10.7 ? 140 for low. Geomagnetic activity is a correlator just as significant as solar activity. The response of mid-latitude thermospheric zonal winds to increases in geomagnetic disturbances and solar flux is evident. With increase in geomagnetic activity, midday to midnight winds are generally less eastward and generally more westward after the about midnight transitions. The results show that east west transitions generally occurred about midnight hours for all the situations analyzed. The west to east transition occurs from 1400–1500 MLT. Enhanced westward averaged zonal wind speeds going above 150 ms⁻¹ are observed in the north hemisphere mid-latitude about sunrise hours (∼0700–1100 MLT). Nighttime winds in the north hemisphere are in good agreement with previous single station ground observations over Millstone Hill. Improved ground observations and multi satellite observations from space will greatly improve temporal coverage of the Earth’s thermosphere.     

低轨航天器弹道系数估算及热层大气模型误差分析

利用低轨（LEO）航天器在轨期间两行轨道根数（TLEs）数据,结合经验大气密度模型NRLMSISE00,反演计算得到其在轨期间的弹道系数B’,以31年B’的平均值代替弹道系数真值,分别通过标准球形目标卫星对比以及物理参数基本相同的非球形目标卫星对比,对弹道系数真值进行了检验;利用不同外形目标卫星弹道系数在不同太阳活动周内的变化规律,结合太阳和地磁活动变化,估计经验大气密度模型的误差分布. 结果表明,利用反演弹道系数31年的平均值来代替真值,其在理论值的正常误差范围内;大气密度模型误差在210～526km高度范围内存在相同的变化趋势,且模型误差随高度增加而增大;在短周期内B’变化与太阳活动指数F_10.7存在反相关性;密度模型不能有效模拟2008年出现的大气密度异常低. 以上结果表明,经验大气密度模型结果需要修正,尤其是在太阳活动峰年和谷年,此外,磁暴期间模型误差的修正对卫星定轨和轨道预报等也具有重要意义.      

Variations of Thermosphere Density Based on Joint Analysis of In-Situ Measurement Data From Shenzhou Spacecrafts

Based on the measurements made by Atmospheric Density Detectors (ADDs) onboard Chinese spacecraft Shenzhou 2-4, the variations of thermosphere density are revealed. During the quiet period, the density at spacecraft altitude of 330～410km exhibited a dominant diurnal variation, with high value on dayside and low value on nightside. The ratio of the diurnal maximum density to the minimum ranged from 1.7 to 2.0. The ratio shows a positive correlation with the level of solar activity and a negative correlation with the level of geomagnetic activity. When a geomagnetic disturbance comes, the atmospheric density at the altitude of 330～410km displayed a global enhancement. For a strong geomagnetic disturbance, the atmospheric density increased by about 56%, and reached its maximum about 6～7 hours after the geomagnetic disturbance peak. The density asymmetry was also observed both in the southern and northern hemisphere during the geomagnetic disturbance peak.