Market-based approaches for controlling space mission costs: the Cassini Resource Exchange

Using economic incentives to control costs is a new concept for space missions. The basic tenets of market-based approaches run counter to typical centralized management techniques often utilized for complex space missions. NASA's Cassini mission to Saturn used a market trading system to assist the Science Instrument Manager in guiding the development of the spacecraft's science payload. This system allowed science instrument teams to trade resources among themselves to best manage their resources (mass, power, data rate, and budget). Thus, Cassini Project management was no longer responsible for adjudicating and reallocating resources that result from instrument development problems. Instrument teams were responsible for directly managing their resources and if they ran into a development problem it was their responsibility to resolve their problem by descoping or through the use of a 'resource exchange.' Under the trading system, instrument cost growth was less than 1% and the total payload mass was under its allocation by 7%. This result is in stark contrast to the 50%–100% increases in these resources on past missions.     

Principal Investigators and mission leadership

Principal Investigators of small and medium sized space and earth science missions face many challenges during formulation, design, development, integration and test, launch, and operations; these challenges may be more easily met by team leaders with prior mission experience. This paper reports the results of the first known demographic study of NASA's Principal-Investigator-led missions and makes recommendations for preparing additional space scientists to lead. The addition of a Deputy Principal Investigator to proposal teams could reduce the burden on the Principal Investigator and provide an opportunity for additional scientists to gain mission leadership experience useful on future missions. The pool of mission-knowledgeable scientists could further be expanded to include scientists earlier in their careers via carefully managed Participating Scientist Programs. Adding Deputy Principal Investigators and Participating Scientist Programs to missions as a matter of course would reinforce effective management practices, open the field of proposers, and provide concrete ways to mentor the next generation of Principal Investigators.     

Worldwide direct audio broadcasting from space : Promoting ‘Glasnost’ with DBS-A

About 100 countries now pursue their ‘public diplomacy’ interests by broadcasting audio programmes via shortwave to 400 000 000 radio listeners. However signals broadcast by surface-based shortwave transmitters are limited in coverage, reliability and quality, and shortwave broadcasting suffers from increasingly difficult operating and political problems. Space technology could now begin to be employed to create common-carrier, common-user (Intelsat- and Inmarsat-like) space-based systems which could provide a truly excellent, low-cost, direct-broadcast audio service throughout the world. The world's governments could thereby use space in a new way to promote ‘Glasnost-Openness’ for ‘the benefit of all mankind’.     

Demographics of principal investigators involved in NASA-funded research

This report presents the findings of a study of 2875 principal investigators identified through a database maintained by NASA's Office of Space Science and Applications. It was found that there will be a major ‘retirement wave’ involving the loss of approximately 1200 of these experienced scientists within the next 15 years. A manpower crisis can apparently only be averted by reversing the exodus from space science that occurred after the end of the Apollo programme.     

Optimization of space system development resources

NASA has had a decades-long problem with cost growth during the development of space science missions. Numerous agency-sponsored studies have produced average mission level cost growths ranging from 23% to 77%.A new study of 26 historical NASA Science instrument set developments using expert judgment to reallocate key development resources has an average cost growth of 73.77%. Twice in history, a barter-based mechanism has been used to reallocate key development resources during instrument development. The mean instrument set development cost growth was −1.55%. Performing a bivariate inference on the means of these two distributions, there is statistical evidence to support the claim that using a barter-based mechanism to reallocate key instrument development resources will result in a lower expected cost growth than using the expert judgment approach.Agent-based discrete event simulation is the natural way to model a trade environment. A NetLogo agent-based barter-based simulation of science instrument development was created. The agent-based model was validated against the Cassini historical example, as the starting and ending instrument development conditions are available. The resulting validated agent-based barter-based science instrument resource reallocation simulation was used to perform 300 instrument development simulations, using barter to reallocate development resources. The mean cost growth was −3.365%. A bivariate inference on the means was performed to determine that additional significant statistical evidence exists to support a claim that using barter-based resource reallocation will result in lower expected cost growth, with respect to the historical expert judgment approach.Barter-based key development resource reallocation should work on spacecraft development as well as it has worked on instrument development. A new study of 28 historical NASA science spacecraft developments has an average cost growth of 46.04%. As barter-based key development resource reallocation has never been tried in a spacecraft development, no historical results exist, and a simulation of using that approach must be developed. The instrument development simulation should be modified to account for spacecraft development market participant differences. The resulting agent-based barter-based spacecraft resource reallocation simulation would then be used to determine if significant statistical evidence exists to prove a claim that using barter-based resource reallocation will result in lower expected cost growth.     

Market-based systems for instrument development and science planning

Market-based systems are those systems in which currency is used to express demand for a limited resource. In these systems, users `own' currency and exchange it for a desired commodity. Though used for thousands of years, market-based applications to space missions are still in their infancy. The first successful application was in 1992 with the Cassini Mission to Saturn. In this case, the sum total of mass and dollars for the science instruments had to fit within the allocated resource envelope. Results from the use of a market-based system show that the entire science payload grew from original estimates by only +1% for cost, and by –7% for mass. The next application was for Space Shuttle Secondary Payloads. In this application, available shuttle lift mass, number of lockers for secondary payloads, and available astronaut time had to be allocated between 5 NASA Users. Experiments showed that a market-based system can reduce the size of the required workforce needed to produce a manifest of the same quality as one produced `by committee.' Finally, a market-based system was experimentally applied to LightSAR science planning, a proposed joint NASA/Commercial RADAR mission. In this application, users were able to produce a conflict-free timeline of events remotely, of high science value, in about half the time required by more traditional methods.     

Remote sensing of natural resources : Legal and political considerations for the Third World

A state's posture on remote sensing of the Earth by orbiting satellites varies depending upon whether it is a ‘sensing’ or a ‘sensed’ state, upon its present economic status, and upon its economic and political history. This article considers the international legal questions related to remote sensing and discusses the political aspects with special emphasis upon the views of the Third World. The author concludes that, unless Third World states and others who support them alter their views somewhat, it is probable that remote sensing of natural resources will continue without specific legal guidelines.     

The deontology of the conquest of space / de la deontologie de la conquete de l''espace: Proceedings from a conference, Casablanca, 1–4 march 1984 Academy of the Kingdom of Morocco, Rabat, Morocco, 1984, 178 pages

Professor Caesar Voûte reports on the 34th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs, Björkliden, Sweden, 9–14 July 1984: ‘1984 and Beyond: Science, Security and Public Opinion’.     

Pricing competitively — a response to Jay Lightfoot

A recent paper in this journal criticized the two methods commonly used to allocate the costs of multi-payload launches, and proposed two new alternatives. The paper argued that ‘Shapley-value’ pricing and the ‘Independent Cost Proportional Scheme’ are immune to instability problems possible under the traditional mass-proportional approach, and reduce ‘subsidies’ paid to small payloads. This rejoinder shows that neither claim is true in general. It also questions whether new pricing formulas are truly needed — or even sustainable in today's competitive market.     

The vision of human spaceflight

This viewpoint charts the historical origins of humans’ fascination with discovering, and having the possibility of visiting, outer space, arguing that acceptance of change is crucial to realizing such dreams. In the past, change was neither expected nor particularly welcomed but scientific and technological discoveries and advances––often made in the face of ‘establishment’ (e.g. Church) opposition––have persuaded people of the desirability of progress. Science fiction writers too have played a part in inspiring humans to want to explore the cosmos. Even if the current US Vision for space exploration proves politically unsustainable, today's humans will not abandon their dreams of space travel.     

State of the art, lightweight scientific experiments available for small to micro satellite missions

A selection of light weight scientific instruments originally designed for major international missions but which, because of their modest resource requirements, can now in addition be flown aboard ‘small’ to ‘micro’ satellites are, briefly, described. These instruments have the capability to either make measurements of constituents of the Earth's energetic particle environment, or provide detailed monitoring of multiple parameters of the cold terrestrial ionospheric plasma. Scientific reasons for flying such instruments in LEO are, in each case, advanced. Individually, they constitute representative examples of a mature genre of commercially available (a cost parameter of £100k/kg can be achieved), light weight, space qualified, instruments which can contribute significantly to the implementation of first class scientific programs aboard small/micro satellites. Uniquely fault tolerant data processing units are a feature of these devices.     

Switzerland and space – how a small country succeeds

Is it possible for small nations to get their concerns aired or improve their industries and economies in the field of space activities? In this edited version of a speech to the international symposium on ‘The History of the European Space Agency’, held in London, 11–13 November 1998, the author demonstrates that, through judicious cooperative endeavour within the framework of ESA, and a willingness to put forward solutions rather than harping on problems, it is. Switzerland’s role in the foundation of ESA is discussed, along with various successful initiatives taken by the country. The particular difficulties presented by the country’s constitution – and how they have been overcome – are also examined. The author concludes with some thoughts on the present and futute state of space affairs in Europe.     

ISU design projects : A new instrument for shaping global space policy?

The author argues that students attending the International Space University (ISU) are becoming a force to be reckoned with in space activities thanks to their enthusiasm, dedication and their Design Projects tackling major technological issues. This article reviews previous projects, before focusing on those of 1993 and 1994, and analyses whether they can be seen as agents for change in space policy making. Key ‘selling points’ are the ‘students’ non-rigid approach to thinking and doing, their refusal to believe in the intractability of any problem and the appeal their novel coalition may have for political leaders.     

BNSC/RAS Town Meeting

In London on 20 September, the British National Space Centre and the Royal Astronomical Society convened a ‘Town Meeting’, a usage picked up from NASA. Basically it was a debate without the competetive element, whose topic was the next two of the European Space Agency's four ‘Cornestone’ projects for the ‘Horizon 2000’ programme, total budget 584 million ECU (about £467 million). The question in September was which would be no. 3 and which no. 4. Duncan Lunan reports on the discussion and the choices made.     

Partnerships in remote sensing : A theme with some examples

This article reviews the revolution in remote sensing which has taken place over the past 25 years. This revolution could not have occurred without the closest cooperation among government agencies, industry and academia. International cooperation is shown to be essential in carrying out the bold missions planned for the next decade. The article reviews the history of the NASA-NOAA relationship, and the history of international partnerships with emphasis on development of the operational METSAT system. The government-industry partnership is also reviewed, with case studies to examine the evolution of METSAT sensor design, LANDSAT commercialization, and the NOAA Administrator's new initiative to facilitate development of a commercial Ocean Color Instrument. Government interaction with academia, in the form of National Science Foundation programmes and government-university ‘cooperative institutes’, is reviewed. The author concludes by showing how plans for integrating research and operations on Space Station platforms can only succeed through an alliance of all the remote-sensing players.     

Russia’s space program: continued turmoil

This article examines recent difficulties in the Russian space program through the analytic lens of the Russian political and economic reform effort. It argues that Russia’s problems go beyond a lack of financing. Instead, lack of investment and ‘brain drain’ have caused deep infrastructural problems which would take years of restored funding and political priority to fix. Russia’s continued activity in space stems almost solely from inertia left over from the Soviet period, and from funding provided by foreign partners anxious to exploit the cheap, sturdy elements of that Soviet legacy.     

Star wars brought to earth

This article considers the thinking behind, and the ramifications of, President Reagan's Star Wars ‘vision’. The author argues that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) is incompatible with other aspects of the Reagan administration's own defence policies and that the ‘security shield’ version of it would make future US-Soviet arms agreements impossible. Only the so-called ‘prudent hedge’ research looks viable in the longer term. The SDI's main value will have been in bringing the USSR back to the negotiating table.     

Science in the national vision for space exploration: objectives and constituencies of the ‘discovery-driven’ paradigm

The NASA/White House Vision for Space Exploration is primarily focused on the development of human and robotic systems that will enable ‘discovery-driven’ investigations in areas important to the scientific community: Mars, the solar system's outer moons, and planets orbiting other stars. Such a portfolio can only be realized if NASA is prepared to target investment at opportunities that are most scientifically compelling. NASA's leaders will have to make decisions in subjective and uncertain environments about the relative long-term value of different kinds of scientific discoveries seen as equally important to different groups. A management paradigm of this kind will imply assessment of heterogeneous priorities and management of interdependent and changing requirements. In order to identify the basis and implications of a ‘discovery-driven’ paradigm, this paper surveys the relationship between the Vision's principles and its programmatic content, the objectives of the Vision's scientific focus areas and their interrelationships, and the public context in which science-focused exploration will proceed.     

The military in space : A historical relationship

The Deputy Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff offers some observations on the ‘militarization’ of space, arguing that military involvement does not necessarily mean an environment will become ‘weaponized’. He also comments on some future US space activities.