Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Temporal profiles of solar energetic particle events from SOHO/EPHIN data

Temporal profiles of energetic ions and electrons observed at 1 AU during solar energetic particle events are mainly determined by particle injection features, the observer location relative to the source region at the Sun, and the interplanetary space plasma and field conditions during particle transport. In this work, temporal profiles of 18 solar energetic particle events have been analyzed by fitting a pulse function to them in order to find a set of parameters which can be used to characterize the events.     

Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information.

Protection from the radiation effects of solar particle events for deep space mission crews requires a warning system to observe solar flares and predict subsequent charged particle fluxes. Such a system relates precursor information observed in each flare to the intensity, delay, and duration of the subsequent Solar Particle Event (SPE) at other locations in the solar system. A warning system of this type is now in operation at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado for support of space missions. It has been used to predict flare particle fluxes at the earth for flares of Solar Cycle 22. The flare parameters used and the effectiveness of the current warning system, based on Solar Cycle 22 experience, are presented, with an examination of the shortcomings. Needed improvements to the system include more complete observations of solar activity, especially information on the occurrences of solar mass ejections; and consideration of the effects of propagation conditions in the solar corona and interplanetary medium. Requirements for solar observations and forecasting systems on board the spacecraft are discussed.     

On some large solar energetic particle events: Direct impulsive component and broad associated coronal mass ejections

Using the proton intensity and X-ray flux data from the GOES, combined with the observations of the associated solar eruptions by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), 14 large SEP events occurring in the period 2000 January–2002 April have been studied. It is found that: (1) events with the SEPs increasing shortly after the maximum of their parent flares (<1 h; hereafter prompt events) have rapid and great (up to four orders of magnitude) SEP increments in high-energy channels (> ∼100 MeV); however, for events whose onset of the SEP injection lags the flare maximum for a long time (>3 h; hereafter delayed events), the high-energy SEPs show no obvious enhancements (within one order of magnitude); (2) peak intensity of the prompt events is distinctly larger than that of the delayed events; (3) CMEs associated with the poorly magnetically connected events (source region <W30°) in our survey are all halo CMEs. From these observational differences, we propose a special scenario of the production of the largest SEP events: both CMEs and flares are induced in the same coronal process; high-energy particles accelerated in the reconnection region can escape easily from the open field lines and/or be transported by fast CMEs into interplanetary space, indicating a direct impulsive component in large gradual SEP events. Meanwhile, the broad width of the associated CMEs implies that the CME width is more important in SEP events production than previously considered.     

On compositional variations of heavy ions during solar particle events

Intensity-time profiles of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions (C, O, Fe) in the MeV/nucleon energy range have been analyzed for one solar particle event following the solar flare on September 23, 1978. The data have been obtained with the wide angle double dE/dx-E sensor of the Max-Planck-Institut/University of Maryland experiment onboard ISEE-3. We found time variations in the iron to helium ratio of up to 2 orders of magnitude and a significant variation of the O/He ratio during this event, whereas the C/O-ratio at the same energy/nucleon appears to be time independent. We investigated the influence of a rigidity dependent mean free path in interplanetary space and of rigidity dependent coronal propagation on heavy ion ratios during solar particle events. We found that both the magnitude and time scale of the ratio changes during the September 23 event cannot be explained by rigidity dependent interplanetary or coronal propagation alone. These ratio changes are probably caused by multiple injection at the sun.     

Solar flares,CMEs and solar energetic particle events during solar cycle 24

We present here a study of Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPs) associated with solar flares during 2010–2014 in solar cycle 24. We have selected the flare events (≥GOES M-class), which produced SEPs. The SEPs are classified into three categories i.e. weak (proton intensity?≤?1?pfu), minor (1?pfu?<?proton intensity?<?10?pfu) and major (proton intensity?≥?10?pfu). We used the GOES data for the SEP events which have intensity greater than one pfu and SOHO/ERNE data for the SEP event less than one pfu intensity. In addition to the flare and SEP properties, we have also discussed different properties of associated CMEs.     

Strategies for dealing with solar particle events in missions beyond the magnetosphere.

For long duration missions beyond the magnetosphere, the hazards posed by solar particle events (SPE) require the development of new strategies to minimize both the radiation dose and the effects. Potential strategies include the development of improved short-term forecasting of SPE through better observations and research, consideration of HZE particles in real-time forecasting and monitoring, improved knowledge of the biological effects of the particles involved in SPE, and the development of methods for combining SPE forecasts with temporary shielding and chemical countermeasures. Evaluation of present capabilities and the identification of areas of further research to achieve the necessary capabilities are discussed.     

Calculations and observations of solar particle enhancements to the radiation environment at aircraft altitudes.

Solar particle events can give greatly enhanced radiation at aircraft altitudes, but are both difficult to predict and to calculate retrospectively. This enhanced radiation can give significant dose to aircrew and greatly increase the rate of single event effects in avionics. Validation of calculations is required but only very few events have been measured in flight. The CREAM detector on Concorde detected the event of 29 September 1989 and also four periods of enhancement during the events of 19-24 October 1989. Instantaneous rates were enhanced by up to a factor ten compared with quiet-time cosmic rays, while flight-averages were enhanced by up to a factor six. Calculations are described for increases in radiation at aircraft altitudes using solar particle spectra in conjunction with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. In order to obtain solar particle spectra with sufficient accuracy over the required energy range it is necessary to combine space data with measurements from a wide range of geomagnetically dispersed, ground-level neutron monitors. Such spectra have been obtained for 29 September 1989 and 24 October 1989 and these are used to calculate enhancements that are compared with the data from CREAM on Concorde. The effect of cut-off rigidity suppression by geomagnetic activity is shown to be significant. For the largest event on record on 23 February 1956, there are no space data but there are data from a number of ground-level cosmic-ray detectors. Predictions for all events show very steep dependencies on both latitude and altitude. At high latitude and altitude (17 km) calculated increases with respect to cosmic rays are a factor 70 and 500 respectively for 29 September 1989 and 23 February 1956. The levels of radiation for high latitude, subsonic routes are calculated, using London to Los Angeles as an example, and can exceed 1 mSv, which is significantly higher than for Concorde routes from Europe to New York. The sensitivity of the calculations to spectral fitting, geomagnetic activity and other assumptions demonstrates the requirement for widespread carriage of radiation monitors on aircraft.     

Estimation of risk based on multiple events in radiation carcinogenesis of rat skin.

In the multistage theory of carcinogenesis, cells progress to cancer through a series of discrete, irreversible, heritable genetic alterations or mutations. However data on radiation-induced cancer incidence in rat skin suggests that some part of an intermediate repairable alteration may occur. Data are presented on cancer induction in rat skin exposed to the following radiations: 1. an electron beam (LET=0.34 keV/um, 2. a neon ion beam (LET=25 keV/um and 3. an argon ion beam (LET=125 keV/um. The latter 2 beams were generated by the Bevalac at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA. About 6.0 cm2 of skin was irradiated per rat. The rats were observed every 6 weeks for at least 78 weeks and tumors were scored at first occurrence. Several histological types of cancer, including squamous and basal cell carcinomas, were induced. The cancer yield versus radiation dose was fitted by the quadratic equation (Y(D)=CLD+BD2), and the parameters C and B were estimated for each type of radiation. Analysis of the DNA from the electron-induced carcinomas indicated that K-ras and/or c-myc oncogenes were activated in all tumors tested, although only a small proportion of neon-induced tumors showed similar activation. In situ hybridization indicated that the cancers contain subpopulations of cells with differing amounts of c-myc and H-ras amplification. The results are consistent with the idea that ionizing radiation produces carcinogenically relevant lesions via 2 repairable events at low LET and via a non-repairable, linked event pathway at high LET; either pathway may advance the cell by 1 stage in the multistage model. The model, if validated, permits the direct calculation of cancer risk in rat skin in a way that can be subjected to experimental testing.     

The atmospheric cosmic- and solar energetic particle radiation environment at aircraft altitudes

Galactic cosmic rays interact with the solar wind, the earth's magnetic field and its atmosphere to produce hadron, lepton and photon fields at aircraft altitudes. In addition to cosmic rays, energetic particles generated by solar activity bombard the earth from time to time. These particles, while less energetic than cosmic rays, also produce radiation fields at aircraft altitudes which have qualitatively the same properties as atmospheric cosmic rays. We have used a code based on transport theory to calculate atmospheric cosmic-ray quantities and compared them with experimental data. Agreement with these data is seen to be good. We have then used this code to calculate equivalent doses to aircraft crews. We have also used the code to calculate radiation doses from several large solar energetic particle events which took place in 1989, including the very large event that occurred on September 29^th and 30^th of that year. The spectra incident on the atmosphere were determined assuming diffusive shock theory.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Significant proton events of solar cycle 22 and a comparison with events of previous solar cycles.

The sun has produced several high energy and large fluence solar proton events during solar cycle 22. This recent activity is similar to activity that occurred in the 19th solar cycle before the advent of routine space measurements. In a review of the recent events and a comparison with significant solar proton events of previous solar cycles, it appears that the 20th and 21st solar cycles were deficient in the total fluence of solar particles as detected at the earth. Therefore, when models of maximum solar proton fluxes to be encountered for deep space missions are developed, solar proton data acquired during the present solar cycle should be incorporated.     

The heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with solar proton events.

We find that the heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with earth-observed solar proton events is a function of the particle measurement energy. For solar proton events containing fluxes with energies exceeding 1 GeV, we find a Gaussian distribution about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun. This distribution is modified as the detection threshold is lowered. For > 100 MeV solar proton events with fluxes > or = 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 we find the distribution becomes wider with a secondary peak near the solar central meridian. When the threshold is lowered to 10 MeV the distribution further evolves. For > 10 MeV solar proton events having a flux threshold at 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 the distribution can be considered to be a composite of two Gaussians. One distribution is centered about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun, and the other is centered about the solar central meridian. For large flux solar proton events, those with flux threshold of 1000 (cm2-sec-ster)-1 at energies > 10 MeV, we find the distribution is rather flat for about 40 degrees either side of central meridian.     

A review of solar proton events during the 22nd solar cycle.

Solar cycle 22 had significant, large fluence, energetic particle events on a scale reminiscent of the 19th solar cycle. Examination of the characteristics of these large events suggests that some of the old concepts of spectral form, intensity-time envelope and energy extrapolations, used to estimate the dose from large events that occurred during previous solar cycles should be re-evaluated. There has also been a dramatic change in perspective regarding the source of solar protons observed in interplanetary space. Very large fluence events are associated with powerful fast interplanetary shocks. The elemental composition and charge state of these events is suggestive of a dominate source in the solar corona and not from a very hot plasma. Furthermore, there is a strong suggestion that the intensity-time profile observed in space is dominated by the connection of the observer to an interplanetary shock source rather than to a unique location near the surface of the sun. These concepts will be examined from the perspective of energetic particles contributing to the dose experienced by an astronaut on an interplanetary space mission.     

Recent estimates of cancer risk from low-LET ionizing radiation and radiation protection limits.

Estimates of the risk of cancer induction, formerly about 1%/Sv, formed the basis of ICRP radiation protection limits in 1977. They have now increased to about 4-5%/Sv for low doses. These increases are based mainly on new data for the Japanese survivors of the A-bombs of 1945. They result from the accumulation of 11 years more of data on solid tumors, the revisions in the dosimetry of those exposed and improvement in statistical methods and projections. The application of a dose rate effectiveness factor between effects at high dose rate and those at low dose and dose rate is also an important consideration. Not only has the total risk changed but also the distribution of risk among organs. Thus the effective dose equivalent may require modification. These changes are modifying ICRP and NCRP thinking about recommendations on protection limits, especially for radiation workers.     

Geomagnetic transmission disturbances and heavy-ion fluences observed in low Earth orbit during the solar energetic particle events of October 1989.

The large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and simultaneous large geomagnetic disturbances observed during October 1989 posed a significant, rapidly evolving space radiation hazard. Using data from the GOES-7, NOAA-10, IMP-8 and LDEF satellites, we determined the geomagnetic transmission, heavy ion fluences, mean Fe ionic charge state, and effective radiation hazard observed in low Earth orbit (LEO) for these SEPs. We modeled the geomagnetic transmission by tracing particles through the combination of the internal International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the Tsyganenko (1989) magnetospheric field models, extending the modeling to large geomagnetic disturbances. We used our results to assess the radiation hazard such very large SEP events would pose in the anticipated 52 degrees inclination space station orbit.     

Energization of charged particle in a time-dependent chaotic magnetic field with an implication of the production of seed particles in solar energetic particle events

We investigate the acceleration of charged particles in a time-dependent chaotic magnetic field in this work. In earlier works, it has been demonstrated that in an asymmetric wire-loop current systems (WLCSs), the magnetic field is of chaotic in nature. Furthermore, observations also showed that there exist time-varying current loops and current filaments in solar corona. It is therefore natural to conceive that the magnetic field on the solar surface is chaotic and time-dependent. Here, we develop a numerical model to study the acceleration process of charged particles in a time-varying chaotic magnetic field that is generated by an ensemble of 8 WLCSs. We found that the motion of energetic particles in the system is of diffusive in nature and a power law spectrum can quickly develop. The mechanism examined here may serve as an efficient pre-acceleration mechanism that generates the so-called seed particles for diffusive shock acceleration at a coronal mass ejection (CME) driven shock in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events.     

Errors in the particle flux measurement data relevant to solar energetic particle spectra.

Systematical errors of the spacecraft measured high-energy particle fluxes are analyzed. The errors are shown to be inherent to most of the measurements made to be the monitoring of the high-energy radiation in the space. The level of the systematic errors of the measurements varies with energy, thus resulting in distortions of the solar energetic particle spectra based on the measurement data. The erroneous experimental data have resulted in spurious estimates of space radiation environment and give rise to erroneous physical conclusions.     

Effects of solar UV-B radiation on aquatic ecosystems.

Solar UV degrades dissolved organic carbon photolytically so that they can readily be taken up by bacterioplankton. On the other hand solar UV radiation inhibits bacterioplankton activity. Bacterioplankton productivity is far greater than previously thought and is comparable to phytoplankton primary productivity. According to the "microbial loop hypothesis," bacterioplankton is seen in the center of a food web, having a similar function to phytoplankton and protists. The penetration of UV and PAR into the water column can be measured. Marine waters show large temporal and regional differences in their concentrations of dissolved and particulate absorbing substances. A network of dosimeters (ELDONET) has been installed in Europe ranging from Abisko in Northern Sweden to Gran Canaria. Cyanobacteria are capable of fixing atmospheric nitrogen which is then made available to higher plants. The agricultural potential of cyanobacteria has been recognized as a biological fertilizer for wet soils such as in rice paddies. UV-B is known to impair processes such as growth, survival, pigmentation, motility, as well as the enzymes of nitrogen metabolism and CO2 fixation. The marine phytoplankton represents the single most important ecosystem on our planet and produces about the same biomass as all terrestrial ecosystems taken together. It is the base of the aquatic food chain and any changes in the size and composition of phytoplankton communities will directly affect food production for humans from marine sources. Another important role of marine phytoplankton is to serve as a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Recent investigations have shown a large sensitivity of most phytoplankton organisms toward solar short-wavelength ultraviolet radiation (UV-B); even at ambient levels of UV-B radiation many organisms seem to be under UV stress. Because of their requirement for solar energy, the phytoplankton dwell in the top layers of the water column. In this near-surface position phytoplankton will be exposed to solar ultraviolet radiation. This radiation has been shown to affect growth, photosynthesis, nitrogen incorporation and enzyme activity. Other targets of solar UV irradiation are proteins and pigments involved in photosynthesis. Whether or not screening pigments can be induced in phytoplankton to effectively shield the organisms from excessive UV irradiation needs to be determined. Macroalgae show a distinct pattern of vertical distribution in their habitat. They have developed mechanisms to regulate their photosynthetic activity to adapt to the changing light regime and protect themselves from excessive radiation. A broad survey was carried out to understand photosynthesis in aquatic ecosystems and the different adaptation strategies to solar radiation of ecologically important species of green, red and brown algae from the North Sea, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean, Atlantic, polar and tropical oceans. Photoinhibition was quantified by oxygen exchange and by PAM (pulse amplitude modulated) fluorescence measurements based on transient changes of chlorophyll fluorescence.     

Information on particle acceleration and transport derived from solar flare spectropolarimetry

The hydrogen Hα line has been found to be linearly polarized at some locations and times during a June 15th 2001 flare observed with THEMIS. This flare was accompanied by radio pulses and hard X-ray emission. Linear polarization is below the noise level in the flare kernels. However, it is present at the edges of these kernels, in the line center and near wings where the polarization degree exceeds 4%. The directions of polarization are not random but close within ±15° to the tangential and radial directions. This polarization can be due either to electron beams and their associated return currents or to electron and proton beams.