Towards a theory of spacepower

There is as yet no widely accepted theory of spacepower, although links to the development of seapower theory are generally acknowledged. An ongoing NDU study is building a framework to explicate the fundamental aspects of spacepower and its relation to the pursuit of a variety of objectives. Two distinct “ages” of the current space era can be discerned, the first based on Cold War competition and the need for prestige, the second based on the requirement for information in a globalized world. The most important features of future space activity are likely to be economic development, and national and international security. Developing a spacepower theory will provide an opportunity to maximize the benefits of space for global society.     

Some consequences of the commercialization of satellite remote sensing

Remote-sensing technology developments will influence the flow and requirements of remote-sensing data until the end of this century. Sensing-upon-request modes of operation are becoming regular practice and, in combination with commercial sales, are leading to contracts in which copyright clauses and other conditions influence the distribution of remote-sensing data. Moreover, the introduction of programmable and directable sensor systems is making it easier to gather more data over certain areas at the cost of less or none over others, leading to potential indirect censorship. The development of a media market for remote-sensing products also brings a threat of actual censorship on the release and use of imagery. The effects of the technology developments and commercialization policies require a careful consideration of whether or not the present international remote-sensing regime, as governed by the UN principles relating to remote sensing of the Earth from space, can continue unmodified in future.     

Insurance strategies for covering risks in outer space: a French perspective

With the growth of commercial activities in outer space, insurers have found an emerging new market. Insurance policy for space satellites has been built chiefly in France and the USA and underwent various crises in the 1980s and 1990s. While the main risks have been more or less identified, their occurrence has shifted from the launch phase to the orbital period over the past few years. At the same time, the duration of insurance policies has been extended up to five years in certain cases, with an adverse effect on profits. The dual-use nature of most spacecraft also makes it difficult to obtain data necessary for the precise identification of risk. An analysis of the space insurance market and its contractual regime is presented, with the aim of identifying emerging trends, and the means by which insurers can develop this still immature sector without compromising their profits.     

The enigma of small satellites for earth observation

Small satellites have captured a continuously increasing share of the market in the fields of science, technology and recently also in the telecommunications and Earth observation areas. User requirements and market opportunities for space based satellite systems for Earth observation products have grown substantially in the past decade. Criteria for the utilization of different classes of satellite systems (small and large) and analogies to developments in other areas, e.g. the telecommunications field are discussed. The end to end character of service and product oriented systems as key criteria for market success in the scientific, applications and commercial areas is underlined. Recent developments in the global change, the Earth observation applications and commercial sectors are reviewed and compared. Opportunities for small satellites in the field are related to technology advancements, cost reduction options, and progress in the state of the art in system design.     

国际商业航天市场与政策分析（英文）

At present, in the world the development of space is undergoing profound changes brought by commercial space, from the traditional government-driven development to the joint government and market promotion. This paper analyzes the current status of both foreign and domestic commercial space markets and policies, and then put forward the ideas and inspirations for the development of China's commercial space market.     

US government policy - the major factor shaping the international commercial space launch marketplace

In this Viewpoint — an edited version of a statement made to the US House Committee on Science's Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics' hearing on ‘US launch strategy’ — the President of Arianespace, Inc analyses the overriding importance of US government policies and executive decisions on the shaping and behavior of the international market in commercial space launch services. Chief among these is the overruling of commercial imperatives by foreign policy and national security interests and the consequent regular intervention of the US government in launch decisions. The ability of Arianespace successfully to compete in a market severely distorted as a result of these interventions, including the encouragement of joint ventures between US and Russian or Ukrainian companies, is explained.     

Implications of previous space commercialization experiences for the reusable launch vehicle

In evaluating the prospects for the development of a commercially viable RLV, it may be useful to examine ’lessons learned‘ from previous space commercialization efforts– both those that succeeded and those that did not. It can be argued that several distinct streams of market and technological development may have to converge for successful commercialization of space systems to occur. Factors influencing the prospects for commercialization include the size and growth rate of the potential customer base, the extent to which a governmental customer exists to underpin the market, the development of associated ’value-added‘ markets, the stability of governmental policies, the availability of enabling or enhancing infrastructure, the levels of technological and business risk, and the degree to which competitive markets exist. This paper examines two previous space commercialization experiences, evaluates the relative importance of the various factors that influence the prospects for success of commercialization efforts, and assesses the implications of those factors for the commercial viability of the proposed RLV.     

Developing new launch vehicle technology: The case for multi-national private sector cooperation

Space is now a global business, yet the cost of getting to space is still high. Developing new launch vehicles that are cheaper, safer, and more reliable is the key to both rapid commercial growth and to more and better government uses of space. However, the R&D process leading to new launch vehicles is expensive and technically challenging; the past 50 years have seen many government development programs, but no major technological breakthroughs. Perhaps, it is therefore time to think about other ways of developing new launch vehicles. The best expertise in this field resides primarily with private companies and is spread across many actors and nations. A consortium led by space firms might be a better approach to opening up space in the 21st century. Governments will have to develop new policies treating space as though it were a commercial industry, in particular, relaxing export trade restrictions wherever possible. Issues of dual-use may be outweighed by the rapidly growing widespread availability of launch capabilities. Since new launch vehicles will require large up-front R&D expenditures, government support will continue to be needed to supplement private capital funds. Contributions to this effort should be international. However, difficult it might be in today's security conscious environment to reorient government policy, doing so may offer the most efficient and successful way to break the technological and economic barriers to more reliable access to space.     

The USA and international competition in space transportation

This article discusses the crisis facing the USA in the formulation of its space transportation policy, within the context of its overall national space policy. The author examines developments in international space transportation from 1982 to 1992, and the failure of US policies to meet foreign commercial competition in space launches. Two goals have emerged from the US policy debate: to achieve assured access to space, and to reduce the costs of sending payloads to orbit. Both goals need to be faced within the context of a wider commitment by government and private industry to space investment.     

From suborbital space tourism to commercial personal spaceflight

Excellent essays have been recently published on the profitability and the future of space tourism. This paper is intended to supplement the considerations in this field and emphasizes the further potential evolution of commercial personal spaceflights. Indeed, based upon work done at the International Space University (ISU) the oligopolistic character of suborbital space tourism has been linked to marketing and product life cycle (PLC) considerations and has led to the thesis that space tourism as a profitable sector will require a follow-on strategy. Orbital space tourism, on one hand, could become an extension of the PLC but, on the other hand, it is assumed that point-to-point (P2P) commercial space transport will become the long term sustainable market. Without ignoring technical challenges, this paper will mainly concentrate on marketing and commercial aspects of personal spaceflight.     

CASH 2021: commercial access and space habitation

Issues about commercialization of space have been a growing concern in the past decade for the space community. This paper focuses on the work from a team of 51 students attending the Summer Session Program of the International Space University in Bremen, Germany. CASH 2021 (Commercial Access and Space Habitation) documents a plan that identifies commercial opportunities for space utilization that will extend human presence in space, and will chart the way forward for the next 20 years. The group selected four commercial sectors that show the most promise for the future: tourism, entertainment, space system service, assembly and debris removal, and research and development/production. The content of this document presents the results of their research. Historical activities in each of the commercial sectors are reviewed along with the current market situation. To provide a coherent background for future commercialization possibilities a scenario has been developed. This scenario includes a postulated upon ideal future and includes social, political and economic factors that may affect the space industry over the timeline of the study. The study also presents a roadmap, within the limited optimistic scenario developed, for the successful commercialization of space leading to future human presence in space. A broad range of commercially viable opportunities, not only within the current limits of the International Space Station, but also among the many new developments that are expected by 2021 are discussed.     

Space commercialization: Lessons from history

Private enterprise seeks to undertake virtually any activity that is institutionally and technologically feasible and that promises a high return on investment. Commercial activities in space would seem to be no exception. Indeed, it is reasonable to expect that, at some future date, commercial activities in space will overshadow government-sponsored research and military activities combined. But this date remains well into the future, it is highly uncertain, and it depends on government policies. Two major factors inhibiting further space commercialization are the current lack of necessary infrastructure and the lack of viable commercial activities. The necessary infrastructure is developing with the increasing operational status of the Space Shuttle and plans for a space station. It remains, however, to place increasing emphasis on the conduct of research in space to identify valid commercial uses of space.     

商业航天背景下卫星星座运营思考（英文）

With the advances of small satellite technology in commercial space sector, using small satellite networks to form a satellite constellation and conduct commercial operational services has entered into a vigorous phase of development. As small satellite technology develops, problems in the operations of small satellite constellations are also gradually emerging. These include ground measurement and operational control systems for small satellite constellations, the commercial operational mode, support and the guarantee of laws and regulations related to small satellites. This report discusses the development of commercial space small satellite operation industrialization, explores the small satellite operational modes and technological innovation, proposes the commercial space industry chain to build the industry ecology. At the same time, it looks forward to the integration of space and terrestrial communication. It also calls on relevant organizations of China to speed up the process of space legislation, formulate the relevant policies to encourage the operations of small satellites in commercial space sector, and push China's commercial space to a new level.     

Development Prospect of the Commercialization for Aerospace Services

In recent years, with the rapid growth in demand for commercial launches, space institutions like NASA have been succeeded in the commercialization of aerospace services. According to the latest development trends on international commercial aerospace services and the current development status of domestic commercial aerospace services, suggestions on the development of China's commercial aerospace services based on policies, development modes and technical innovation are given.     

Europe's major challenge for the 21st century: Access to space

Like the other great space powers of the 21st century, Europe has its own means of accessing space: Ariane, which has guaranteed its independence in the launching of civil and military satellites for almost 30 years and has won a significant part of the highly competitive commercial market. This market provides the Ariane system with the production volume indispensable for its reliability, which also benefits institutional launches. Europe's commercial market share will be even larger if the launch system is flexible and adaptable to the diversity of demand. Probable future technological changes make flexibility more necessary still. Two technical characteristics will be key: a large enough payload capacity and the injection of satellites into energetic orbits, including final geostationary orbit. But carrying out such missions will only be possible if a new generation upper stage is used. The November 2008 ESA ministerial meeting opted to wait until 2011 to decide whether this is necessary, making it doubtful whether Arianespace will be able to maintain leadership in the commercial market. The authors urge a rethink of this position.     

Observations on the evolution of satellite launch volume and cyclicality in the space industry

Satellites have been rightly described as the lifeblood of the entire space industry and the number of satellites ordered or launched per year is an important defining metric of the industry's level of activity, such that trends and variability in this volume have significant strategic impact on the space industry. Over the past 40+ years, hundreds of satellites have been launched every year. Thus an important dataset is available for time series analysis and identification of trends and cycles in the various markets of the space industry. This article reports findings of a study for which we collected data on over 6000 satellites launched since 1960 on a yearly basis. We grouped the satellites into three broad categories – defense and intelligence, science, and commercial satellites – and identified and discussed the main trends and cyclical patterns for each of these. Institutional customers (defense and intelligence, and science) accounted for over two-thirds of all satellites launched within our time period (1960–2008), and, in the 1960s and 1970s, they accounted for 90% and 73.5%, respectively. A fair conclusion from this data is that the space industry was enabled by, and grew because of the institutional customers, not commercial market forces. However, when the launch data is examined more closely, a growing influence of the commercial sector is noticeable. Over the past two decades communication satellites accounted for roughly half of all launches, thus reflecting an important shift in the space industry in which the commercial sector is playing an equal role (on a launch volume basis) to that of the institutional market. Cyclical patterns in the satellite launch volume over the past decade are separately discussed before we sum up with a conclusion.     

The UK parliamentary space committee: The emergence of a space lobby?

In the past few years the UK has become increasingly active as the financial conscience of the European Space Agency. This is not because the UK government has a wish to spend more on its national space effort; it is because it remains unconvinced of the benefits of certain European space activities, notably manned endeavours. In the absence of an effective UK space lobby, the government's policies have remained largely unchallenged. This article traces the growth of the Parliamentary Space Committee in the context of developments in recent European space policy and highlights the need for an active UK space lobby.     

Japan,Ballistic Missile Defence and remilitarisation

Japan's future trajectory in security policy and the extent of deviation from the post-war course of a constrained military stance have been the source of constant academic and policy debate. Japanese policy-makers have maintained that national security policy has shown no fundamental deviation, and that this can be benchmarked against a range of constant anti-militaristic principles. The advent of BMD, however, poses significant questions over whether Japan is continuing to follow a similar security trajectory. This article examines how BMD has challenged four key anti-militaristic principles—the non-exercise of collective self-defence, the non-military use of space, the ban on the export of weapons technology, and strict civilian control of the military—and uses this assessment to judge how BMD is driving remilitarisation. It concludes that BMD's impact is highly significant in transgressing these anti-militaristic principles and is thus indicating a more remilitarised security path for Japan developing now and in the future.     

The growing ‘securitization’ of outer space

Discussions of space security tend to recurrently return to the vexed issue of the ‘militarization’ and ‘weaponization’ of outer space. Debate over whether or not a sustainable definition can be maintained between these two concepts has been a feature of both academic and policy discourses, and has been particularly contentious with regard to new proposals for arms control in outer space. Yet, this paper argues, the militarization/weaponization debate fails to capture to vagaries of contemporary space policy with regard to understandings of ‘security’, and is in this sense an insufficient way of approaching the subject of space security in the first instance. Instead it is now more accurate to say that outer space is becoming ever more ‘securitized’: that is, access to space is now commonly framed as crucial to the military, economic and environmental security of leading states and international organizations.     

Dominance in space — a new means of exercising global power?

Sustained criticism of the strategy of nuclear deterrence and technological developments in the military uses of space suggest that nuclear weapons may soon be replaced by control of outer space as the USA and USSR's primary instrument of global power. This article traces the change in perceptions of nuclear weapons policy and assesses the potential of outer space as a means of control, and the plans of the two superpowers for its exploitation, especially in the military sphere. The consequences for Western Europe of a shift from nuclear to space-based weapons as the primary guarantor of national security are also discussed.