Solar extreme events 2005–2006: Effects on near-Earth space systems and interplanetary systems

Extreme events are defined as those events in which the characteristics (e.g. field strength, speed, intensity of radiation, energies) of the associated phenomena (e.g. solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar proton events) are some orders of magnitude larger than in other events. Such strong events commonly occur about two years before and after sunspot maximum and some strong events occur as well in the declining phase before the solar activity minimum [Bothmer V., Zhukov A. The 11 Sun as the prime source of space weather, in: Bothmer, V., Daglis, I. (Eds.), Space Weather: Physics and Effects, Springer Praxis Books, 12 pp. 438, 2007]. In the first part of the paper the characteristics of the Jan. 2005 and Dec. 2006 events are given. This is followed by a presentation of the effects that were encountered on technological systems and also addresses the issue of what could have occurred on biological systems during such events. The second part of the paper deals with how one should go about analyzing solar extreme events - as part of the global distribution of all events or as ”outliers” with their own special characteristics.     

“风云一号（B）”卫星探测到的太阳质子事件

我国“风云一号(B)”气象卫星于1990年9月3日发射入轨,该星载有粒子成分监测器,用来探测空间粒子辐射环境,其中包括测量太阳耀斑时产生的太阳质子事件及其重粒子丰度;银河宇宙线异常成分与强度;内辐射带磁异常区的粒子通量及重粒子成分,“风云一号(B)”卫星运行半年来,我们已获取了上述有关的粒子辐射资料,在卫星上获得这些资料在我国尚属首次,本文主要分析观测到的太阳质子事件。     

Properties of solar X-ray flares and proton event forecasting

X-ray flares and acceleration processes are in one complex of sporadic solar events (together with CMEs, radio bursts, magnetic field dissipation and reconnection). This supposes the connection (if not physical, but at least statistical) between characteristics of the solar energetic proton events and flares. The statistical analysis indicates that probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends heavily on the flare importance and their heliolongitude. These relations may be used for elaboration of the forecasting models, which allow us to calculate probability of the solar proton events from the X-ray observations.     

Statistical characteristics of low latitude Pc4s: Influence of solar wind and IMF parameters

Pc4 signatures for the year 2013, extracted from geomagnetic north–south and east–west components of induction coil magnetometer (LEMI 30) from low latitude station Desalpar (DSP), operated by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), India have been investigated vis-à-vis the prevalent interplanetary parameters (IMF) as well as the geomagnetic activity indices. A clear dominance of Pc4-5 (467 events) over Pc3 (17 events) is observed. Local time variation of Pc4 shows a peak in the noon sector in both X and Y components. Our investigations show that the dominant peak frequency is 10 mHz at low latitude region. Correlations with solar wind and IMF parameters illustrate highest occurrence of Pc4 for a solar wind speed of 300–400 km/s and average IMF B field of 3–6 nT. The amplitude of Pc4s at DSP shows an increase with increasing solar wind speed, plasma density, solar wind dynamic pressure and average B field which is also reflected in the trend of frequency variation of these pulsations. We report that IMF clock angle at low latitude does not have influence on Pc4 occurrence. Based on the characteristics of these events, detected in latitudinally distributed stations from low and mid-latitudes from northern and southern hemisphere, we infer that modes were compressional, which could be driven by K-H instability or solar wind dynamic pressure, as compressional modes can propagate to low latitude with little attenuation.     

Lunar cosmic ray radiation environments during Luna and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter missions

The RV-2N-series instruments onboard Luna missions and the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument onboard Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) were designed to characterize the global lunar radiation environment and its biological impacts by measuring cosmic ray (CR) intensity. In this study, we have shown that the RV-2N-series instruments onboard of Russian Luna missions and the CRaTER reliably detect both background CRs and solar proton events (SPEs) in the lunar radiation environment using the proton intensity measured by the RV-2N-series onboard Luna missions out of the Russian Luna program for the exploration of the Moon (November 1970–August 1975) and the CR intensity on the Moon observed by the CRaTER (June 2009–March 2011). Those were compared with the CR intensities observed by neutron monitors (McMurdo, Thule, Oulu) on the Earth. The sunspot number is used as the index of solar activity (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center). As a result, the background CR intensities on the Moon turned out to have a good anti-correlation with the solar activity. We have also identified the proton intensity increasing events on the Moon which have the similar profiles to those observed by neutron monitors on the Earth. Most of these events show the significant increase of proton intensities in the lunar radiation environment when the SPEs associated with solar eruptions are verified. Therefore, most of the proton intensity increasing events are associated with the energetic solar particles in the lunar environment.     

27-day variation in solar-terrestrial parameters: Global characteristics and an origin based approach of the signals

The Earth and the near interplanetary medium are affected by the Sun in different ways. Those processes generated in the Sun that induce perturbations into the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system are called geoeffective processes and show a wide range of temporal variations, like the 11-year solar cycle (long term variations), the variation of ～27?days (recurrent variations), solar storms enduring for some days, particle acceleration events lasting for some hours, etc.In this article, the periodicity of ～27?days associated with the solar synodic rotation period is investigated. The work is mainly focused on studying the resulting 27-day periodic signal in the magnetic activity, by the analysis of the horizontal component of the magnetic field registered on a set of 103 magnetic observatories distributed around the world. For this a new method to isolate the periodicity of interest has been developed consisting of two main steps: the first one consists of removing the linear trend corresponding to every calendar year from the data series, and the second one of removing from the resulting series a smoothed version of it obtained by applying a 30-day moving average. The result at the end of this process is a data series in which all the signal with periods larger than 30?days are canceled.The most important characteristics observed in the resulting signals are two main amplitude modulations: the first and most prominent related to the 11-year solar cycle and the second one with a semiannual pattern. In addition, the amplitude of the signal shows a dependence on the geomagnetic latitude of the observatory with a significant discontinuity at approx. ±60°.The processing scheme was also applied to other parameters that are widely used to characterize the energy transfer from the Sun to the Earth: F10.7 and Mg II indices and the ionospheric vertical total electron content (vTEC) were considered for radiative interactions; and the solar wind velocity for the non-radiative interactions between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. The 27-day signal obtained in the magnetic activity was compared with the signals found in the other parameters resulting in a series of cross-correlations curves with maximum correlation between 3 and 5?days of delays for the radiative and between 0 and 1?days of delay for the non-radiative parameters. This result supports the idea that the physical process responsible for the 27-day signal in the magnetic activity is related to the solar wind and not to the solar electromagnetic radiation.     

Modeling the solar cosmic ray event of 13 December 2006 using ground level neutron monitor data

In order to understand the physics under extreme solar conditions such as those producing ground level enhancements of solar cosmic rays, it is important to use accurate and reliable models. The NM-BANGLE Model is a new cosmic ray model which couples primary solar cosmic rays at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere with the secondary ones detected at ground level by neutron monitors during GLEs. This model calculates the evolution of several GLE parameters such as the solar cosmic ray spectrum, anisotropy and particle flux distribution, revealing crucial information on the energetic particle propagation and distribution. The total output of the NM-BANGLE Model is a multi-dimensional GLE picture that gives an important contribution to revealing the characteristics of solar energetic particle events recorded at ground level. In this work, the results of the NM-BANGLE Model application to the recent GLE of 13 December 2006 are presented and discussed. Moreover, a comparison with the extreme event of 20 January 2005 (GLE69) has been realized.     

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

低纬100—200km间电子数密度的变化

利用光化平衡模式计算了低纬100—200km间白天电子数密度的变化。求得E-F₁谷区的谷深,谷宽、谷高的变化特征。获得如下结果:a.太阳活动明显影响电子数密度随高度及太阳天顶角的变化,发现太阳活动指数与电子数密度间不仅存在正相关,而且存在负相关;b.太阳活动明显影响E-F₁谷区的形态。在一定太阳活动条件下,对同一太阳赤纬和地理纬度,谷深、谷宽与太阳天顶角的关系难以用一简单函数来表示;c.太阳耀斑、地磁活动对该区电子密度有明显影响;d.在讨论100—200km间电子密度时不能忽略O+（2P）和NO的光电离率。      

Results of solar observations by the CORONAS-F payload

The CORONAS-F mission experiments and results have been reviewed. The observations with the DIFOS multi-channel photometer in a broad spectral range from 350 to 1500 nm have revealed the dependence of the relative amplitudes of p-modes of the global solar oscillations on the wavelength that agrees perfectly well with the earlier data obtained in a narrower spectral ranges. The SPIRIT EUV observations have enabled the study of various manifestations of solar activity and high-temperature events on the Sun. The data from the X-ray spectrometer RESIK, gamma spectrometer HELICON, flare spectrometer IRIS, amplitude–temporal spectrometer AVS-F, and X-ray spectrometer RPS-1 have been used to analyze the X- and gamma-ray emission from solar flares and for diagnostics of the flaring plasma. The absolute and relative content of various elements (such as potassium, argon, and sulfur) of solar plasma in flares has been determined for the first time with the X-ray spectrometer RESIK. The Solar Cosmic Ray Complex monitored the solar flare effects in the Earth’s environment. The UV emission variations recorded during solar flares in the vicinity of the 120-nm wavelength have been analyzed and the amplitude of relative variations has been determined.     

1986年2月的高太阳活动研究──Ⅳ日地扰动事件耦合初析

利用光学、射电、软X射线和硬X射线观测资料,对1986年2月系列太阳爆发中最大的两个耀斑作相似与相异性的分析,解释它们近地空间效应的区别,对该系列太阳爆发事件和叠加在一起的地球事件作认证研究.      

A study on radio-loud interacting/non-interacting CMEs-associated SEPs and solar flares

We have established a data set of 58 major hybrid SEP events associated with meter-to-decahectometer wavelength (m-to-DH) type II bursts, solar flares, and radio-load CMEs during the period of 1997–2014. The main focus of our study is to address the following two questions: Does the interaction of CMEs play a role in the enhancement of SEP intensity? Is there any difference in the seed population, and parent eruptions in the SEP events with and without CME interactions? Hence, the sample of 58 events is classified into two sets: (i) 35 non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events; (ii) 23 interacting-CME-associated SEP events. All the characteristics of SEPs, their associated CMEs/flares and the relationships between them are statistically analyzed and compared. Some of the basic attributes and relative elemental abundances (Fe/O ratios) of the both the sets are also compared. The results indicate that the seed particles in non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events are mostly from solar wind/coronal materials. But in the case of interacting-CME-associated SEP events, it may be associated with both flare material from preceding flares and coronal materials from solar wind/preceding CMEs. The correlation studies reveal that there are clear correlations between logarithmic peak intensity of SEP events and properties of CMEs (space speed: cc?=?0.56) and solar flares (peak intensity: cc?=?0.40; integrated flux: cc?=?0.52) for non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events. But these correlations are absent for the interacting-CME-associated events. In addition, the results suggest that interaction of primary CMEs with their preceding CMEs plays an important role in the enhancement of peak intensity of SEPs at least for a set of m-to-DH type II bursts associated SEP events.     

22太阳周极大期Imp≥M1.0X射线耀斑的分布特征

本文对第22太阳周极大时期Imp≥M1.0X射线耀斑的空间分布进行了统计分析.结果表明,该事件存在南北半球分布的不对称性,且不对称性在极大年或其后一年改变符号.文中还对不对称性与太阳活动的相关关系也进行了探讨.      

Statistical analysis of geomagnetic field variations during solar eclipses

We investigate the geomagnetic field variations recorded by INTERMAGNET geomagnetic observatories, which are observed while the Moon’s umbra or penumbra passed over them during a solar eclipse event. Though it is generally considered that the geomagnetic field can be modulated during solar eclipses, the effect of the solar eclipse on the observed geomagnetic field has proved subtle to be detected. Instead of exploring the geomagnetic field as a case study, we analyze 207 geomagnetic manifestations acquired by 100 geomagnetic observatories during 39 solar eclipses occurring from 1991 to 2016. As a result of examining a pattern of the geomagnetic field variation on average, we confirm that the effect can be seen over an interval of 180?min centered at the time of maximum eclipse on a site of a geomagnetic observatory. That is, demonstrate an increase in the Y component of the geomagnetic field and decreases in the X component and the total strength of the geomagnetic field. We also find that the effect can be overwhelmed, depending more sensitively on the level of daily geomagnetic events than on the level of solar activity and/or the phase of solar cycle. We have demonstrated it by dividing the whole data set into subsets based on parameters of the geomagnetic field, solar activity, and solar eclipses. It is suggested, therefore, that an evidence of the solar eclipse effect can be revealed even at the solar maximum, as long as the day of the solar eclipse is magnetically quiet.     

Solar particle events observed at Mars: dosimetry measurements and model calculations

During the period from March 13, 2002 to mid-September, 2002, six solar particle events (SPE) were observed by the MARIE instrument onboard the Odyssey Spacecraft in Martian Orbit. These events were observed also by the GOES 8 satellite in Earth orbit, and thus represent the first time that the same SPE have been observed at these separate locations. The characteristics of these SPE are examined, given that the active regions of the solar disc from which the event originated can usually be identified. The dose rates at Martian orbit are calculated, both for the galactic and solar components of the ionizing particle radiation environment. The dose rates due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) agree well with the HZETRN model calculations.     

An experiment to study solar flare effects on radio-communication signals

The occurrence of radio signal fading events caused by ionospheric absorption plays an important role in the performance of radio-communication systems. It is necessary to know the magnitude and time-scale of such events in order to specify technical parameters of the communication system to be used. Generally, fading events are associated with solar flares, which are characterized by sudden increase in the solar X-ray flux that causes an increase in the ionization in the lower ionosphere. The abrupt increase of ionization causes the absorption of radio waves propagating in the Earth–ionosphere wave-guide and is reported as radio signal fading events. A simple experiment to monitor the behavior of lower ionosphere has been carried out at the Southern Space Observatory-SSO/INPE (29.43°S, 53.8°W), located in southern Brazil. The experiment is basically a computer controlled radio receiver that records the received signal strength of Amplitude Modulated (AM) radio signals in the HF (High Frequencies) range. We analyzed data of the 6 MHz beacon signal that has been transmitted by a broadcasting radio station located about 400 km from the observation site. In this work we present initial results of daily variation of the received signal strength and fading events associated with solar flares observed in the 6 MHz signal monitored by the experiment during 2001. X-ray solar flux data from the GOES-8 satellite were used to identify X-ray solar bursts associated with solar flares. Based on the one-year data collected by the experiment, a statistical summary of fading occurrences and their correlation with solar flares, as well as the distributions of time-scales and magnitudes of such events are presented.     

太阳耀斑显著的热和非热事件的统计特征

本文利用GOES卫星和SMM卫星软、硬X射线耀斑观测资料,分析耀斑中软、硬X射线辐射流量的分布,发现太阳耀斑存在着显著的热事件(PT事件)和显著的非热事件(PNT事件),它们主要特征是:(1)PT事件为缓变型耀斑,PNT事件为脉冲型耀斑;(2)PT事件的硬X射线谱较软,PNT事件能谱较硬;(3)PNT事件非热能量释放速率比PT事件快3—10倍;(4)耀斑发展趋缓慢,PT事件中软X射线峰值流量越大;(5)耀斑中PNT事件约占60％,PT事件约占40％.最后定性讨论了产生PT和PNT事件的可能机制.      

Sun CubE OnE: A multi-wavelength synoptic solar micro satellite

The Sun cubE onE (SEE) is a 12U CubeSat mission proposed for a phase A/B study to the Italian Space Agency that will investigate Gamma and X-ray fluxes and ultraviolet (UV) solar emission to support studies in Sun-Earth interaction and Space Weather from LEO. More in detail, SEE’s primary goals are to measure the flares emission from soft-X to Gamma ray energy range and to monitor the solar activity in the Fraunhofer Mg II doublet at 280 nm, taking advantage of a full disk imager payload. The Gamma and X-ray fluxes will be studied with unprecedented temporal resolution and with a multi-wavelength approach thanks to the combined use of silicon photodiode and silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) -based detectors. The flare spectrum will be explored from the keV to the MeV range of energies by the same payload, and with a cadence up to 10 kHz and with single-photon detection capabilities to unveil the sources of the solar flares. The energy range covers the same bands used by GOES satellites, which are the standard bands for flare magnitude definition. At the same time SiPM detectors combined with scintillators allow to cover the non-thermal bremsstrahlung emission in the gamma energy range. Given its UV imaging capabilities, SEE will be a key space asset to support detailed studies on solar activity, especially in relation to ultraviolet radiation which strongly interacts with the upper layers of the Earth’s atmosphere, and in relation to space safety, included in the field of human space exploration. The main goal for the UV payload is to study the evolution of the solar UV emission in the Mg II band at two different time scales: yearly variations along the solar cycle and transient variations during flare events. The Mg II index is commonly used as a proxy of the solar activity in the Sun-as-a-star paradigm, in which solar irradiance variations in the UV correlate with the variations in stratospheric ozone concentrations and other physical parameters of the Earth high atmosphere. SEE data will be used together with space and ground-based observatories that provide Solar data (e.g. Solar Orbiter, IRIS, GONG, TSST), high energy particle fluxes (e.g. GOES, MAXI, CSES) and geomagnetic data in a multi-instrument/multi-wavelength/multi-messenger approach.     

The potential of Meudon spectroheliograph for investigating long term solar activity and variability

Observations of the chromosphere with Deslandres’s spectroheliograph started at Paris Observatory in 1893 and were followed by systematic observations at Meudon since 1908. The solar collection of H$\alpha$ and CaII K images is probably the longest available worldwide, with associated products such as synoptic maps and tables. Since 2018, Meudon spectroheliograph is the only instrument producing data-cubes of full line profiles of CaII H, CaII K and H$\alpha$, for each pixel of the solar disk. Slices of the cubes provide monochromatic images. We summarize in this paper the capabilities of the successive generations of the instrument, and explore the potential of the collection and products for analysis of rare events, investigations of past solar activity and studies of long term variability.