Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of their contribution in expected global climate change

On the basis of results obtained in our paper [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], we determine: the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection–diffusion; drift mechanisms of long-term variations of cosmic ray (CR) dependence on particle energy; level of solar activity (SA); and generally, the solar magnetic field. We obtain this important information on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection–diffusion and global drift modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and other regularly published predictions of expected SA variation in the near future, as well as predictions of the next SA cycle, we may make predictions of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years). In [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], properties of connections between long-term variation in CR intensity and some part of a global climate change were estimated, controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that in this way we may make predictions of some part of a global climate change expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years and maybe more, depending upon the period during which definite predictions of SA can be made), controlled by solar activity through CR. In this case, estimations of expected long-term changes in the planetary distribution of cutoff rigidities, which also influence CR intensity, as well as CR-influenced effects on global climate variation, become important.     

Evolution of Dst index,cosmic rays and global temperature during solar cycles 20–23

We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic ray (CR) and climate change. In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and cosmic ray variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst index from the beginning 1965 to the end of 2012. Dst index is commonly used as the solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere interaction characteristic. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Because of this CMEs, coronal holes and the solar spot numbers (SSN) do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU. Therefore, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the irregular solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of Dst index and the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, and Haleakala neutron monitors during the solar cycles 20–23. The descending phases of these solar cycles (CSs) had the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations. They also had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst variations in these solar cycles were correlated with the cosmic ray count rate and can be used for study of CR variations. Global temperature variations in connection with evolution of Dst index and CR variations is discussed.     

Measurement of cosmic ray elemental composition from the CAKE balloon experiment

CAKE (Cosmic Abundances below Knee Energies) was a prototype balloon experiment for the determination of the charge spectra and abundances of the primary cosmic rays (CR) with Z > 10. It was a passive instrument made of layers of CR39® and Lexan®/Makrofol® nuclear track detectors; it had a geometric acceptance of ∼0.7 m² sr for Fe nuclei. Here, the scanning and analysis strategies, the algorithms used for the off-line filtering and for the tracking in automated mode of the primary cosmic rays are presented, together with the resulting CR charge distribution and their abundances.     

The KACST muon detector and its application to cosmic-ray variations studies

A single channel cosmic ray muon detector was constructed and installed in Riyadh, central Saudi Arabia, for studying the variations in the cosmic ray (CR) muon flux. The detector has been in operation since July 2002. The recorded data correspond to muons that primarily have energies between 10 and 20 GeV. The detector will be used to continuously measure the intensity of the muon components of the cosmic rays, exploring its variations and possible correlations with environment parameters. The technical aspects of this detector will be presented. Some results obtained by the detector so far will be given. These include the modulation of the CR flux on different time scales (diurnal, 27-day, and long-term variations). Additionally, the effect of a severe dust storm on the muon count rate was investigated.     

Cosmic ray acceleration by supernova shocks

We analyse the results of recent measurements of nonthermal emission from individual supernova remnants (SNRs) and their correspondence to the nonlinear kinetic theory of cosmic ray (CR) acceleration in SNRs. It is shown that the theory fits these data in a satisfactory way and provides the strong evidences for the efficient CR production in SNRs accompanied by significant magnetic field amplification. Magnetic field amplification leads to considerable increase of CR maximum energy so that the spectrum of CRs accelerated in SNRs is consistent with the requirements for the formation of Galactic CR spectrum up to the energy ∼10¹⁷ eV.     

The beginning of cosmic ray astrophysics

A short history of the beginning of cosmic ray (CR) astrophysics is considered: from the hypothesis on CR origin as a result of Supernova explosions in the Metagalaxy, to a model of solar origin of CR, galactic origin based on the stochastic mechanism of charged particle acceleration in interstellar space, to extragalactic and hierarchical models of CR origin, as well as galactic CR origin taking into account radio-astronomical data. We consider also the first balloon results on the chemical contents of primary CR (especially of the contents Li, Be, B), important for any model of CR origin. Investigations of the injection problem, CR drift and diffusion acceleration by shock waves, and CR generation in Supernova remnants were also important steps in the beginning of CR astrophysics.     

Analytical approach to cosmic ray ionization by nuclei with charge Z in the middle atmosphere – Distribution of galactic CR effects

The effects of galactic and solar cosmic rays (CR) in the middle atmosphere are considered in this work. A new analytical approach for CR ionization by protons and nuclei with charge Z in the lower ionosphere and middle atmosphere is developed in this paper. For this purpose the ionization losses (dE/dh) according to the Bohr–Bethe–Bloch formula for the energetic charged particles are approximated in three different energy intervals. More accurate expressions for energy decrease E(h) and electron production rate profiles q(h) are derived. The obtained formulas allow comparatively easy computer programming. The integrand in q(h) gives the possibility for application of adequate numerical methods – such as Romberg method or Gauss quadrature, for the solution of the mathematical problem. On this way the process of interaction of cosmic ray particles with the upper, middle and lower atmosphere will be described much more realistically. Computations for cosmic ray ionization in the middle atmosphere are made. The full CR composition is taken into account: protons, Helium (α-particles), light L, medium M, heavy H and very heavy VH group of nuclei.     

Difficulties in the study of cosmic radio noise absorption at 30 MHz using riometer at low latitude station,Kolhapur (Lat-16.8°N,Long-74.25°E)

A dual dipole antenna has been installed at low latitude station Kolhapur (Geographic 16.8°N, 74.25°E), Maharashtra, India for the study of cosmic radio noise absorption using Solid State Riometer (which operates at 30 MHz) during pre phase of 24th solar maxima. The aim for this type of study over Kolhapur was to know the response of lower (D region) ionosphere over low latitude by cosmic radio noise absorption using riometer technique during quite period as well as sudden ionospheric disturbances (SID). The observations are being taken for 3 years. Two different sites (∼40 km away from each other) were used for the installation of riometer equipment assuming minimum local noise. It is found that solar noise to cosmic radio noise hence resulting in signal saturation. The night time signal is relatively free of interference but sometimes local noise is responsible for spike-like signatures. Hence it is concluded that Kolhapur (a low latitude station) is not suitable for the study of cosmic radio noise absorption on 30 MHz with riometer and dual dipole antenna. Proper choice for operating frequency of riometer and antenna gain is suggested for low latitude use of this technique for ionospheric deviative and nondeviative absorption studies.     

New evidence for strong non-thermal effects in Tycho’s supernova remnant

For the case of Tycho’s supernova remnant (SNR), we present the relation between the blast wave and contact discontinuity radii calculated within the nonlinear kinetic theory of cosmic ray (CR) acceleration in SNRs. It is demonstrated that these radii are confirmed by recently published Chandra measurements which show that the observed contact discontinuity radius is very close to the shock radius. Therefore a consistent explanation of these observations can be given in terms of efficient CR acceleration which makes the medium more compressible.     

Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data

A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper, we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere, which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases, reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field, we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering).     

Real-time GLE alert in the ANMODAP Center for December 13, 2006

Within the last years, a real-time system to monitor high energy cosmic rays for space weather use has been operated at Athens cosmic ray station. Neutron monitors and satellite high resolution data in real time are used, making it possible to observe cosmic rays in dual energy range observations. In large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, ground level enhancement (GLE) can provide the earliest alert for the onset of the SEP event. This system watches for count rate increases recorded in real time by 23 neutron monitors, which triggers an alarm if a ground level enhancement (GLE) of cosmic ray intensity is detected.     

Gamma-ray astronomy and cosmic ray origin problem

We analyse the results of the nonlinear kinetic theory of cosmic ray (CR) acceleration in supernova remnants (SNRs) in order to describe their relevant properties: the remnant dynamics and the characteristics of nonthermal emission produced by CRs. It is shown that the theory fits the existing data in a satisfactory way and that the magnetic field in SNRs is significantly amplified due to efficient acceleration of the nuclear CR component. From the fact that magnetic field amplification occurs in all the young SNRs for which relevant data exist, and given the strong theoretical connection between magnetic field amplification and efficiently accelerating the nuclear CRs, we tentatively conclude that the Galactic SNRs are the source population of the Galactic CRs. Due to high interior magnetic fields in young SNRs the π⁰-decay γ-rays generated by the nuclear CR component as a rule dominate over γ-rays generated by the electron CR component, and the calculated γ-ray flux fits existing data.     

SVIRCO contribution to the world-wide network of cosmic ray detectors

Since 1954 a research team (called SVIRCO) has been performing measurements of cosmic rays in Rome at La Sapienza University till 1997 and then at Roma Tre University. The experimental work carried out over more than 50 years is summarized in this paper. It describes: the early history of SVIRCO, the evolution from SVIRCO station to SVIRCO observatory, land and sea cosmic-ray surveys and the mini-network of neutron monitors, operating inside the world-wide network of cosmic ray detectors.     

Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.     

History of cosmic ray research in Finland

The history of cosmic ray research in Finland can be traced back to the end of 1950s, when first ground-based cosmic ray measurements started in Turku. The first cosmic ray station was founded in Oulu in 1964 performing measurements of cosmic rays by a muon telescope, which was later complemented by a neutron monitor. Since the 1990s, several research centers and universities, such as The Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Oulu, University of Turku and University of Helsinki have been involved in space science projects, such as SOHO, AMS, Cluster, Cassini, BepiColombo, etc. At the same time, ground-based cosmic ray measurements have reached a new level, including a fully automatic on-line database in Oulu and a new muon measuring underground site in Pyhäsalmi. Research groups in Helsinki, Oulu and Turku have also extensive experience in theoretical investigations of different aspects of cosmic ray physics. Cosmic ray research has a 50-year long history in Finland, covering a wide range from basic long-running ground-based observations to high-technology space-borne instrumentation and sophisticated theoretical studies. Several generations of researchers have been involved in the study ensuring transfer of experience and building the recognized Finnish research school of cosmic ray studies.     

Lunar cosmic ray radiation environments during Luna and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter missions

The RV-2N-series instruments onboard Luna missions and the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument onboard Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) were designed to characterize the global lunar radiation environment and its biological impacts by measuring cosmic ray (CR) intensity. In this study, we have shown that the RV-2N-series instruments onboard of Russian Luna missions and the CRaTER reliably detect both background CRs and solar proton events (SPEs) in the lunar radiation environment using the proton intensity measured by the RV-2N-series onboard Luna missions out of the Russian Luna program for the exploration of the Moon (November 1970–August 1975) and the CR intensity on the Moon observed by the CRaTER (June 2009–March 2011). Those were compared with the CR intensities observed by neutron monitors (McMurdo, Thule, Oulu) on the Earth. The sunspot number is used as the index of solar activity (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center). As a result, the background CR intensities on the Moon turned out to have a good anti-correlation with the solar activity. We have also identified the proton intensity increasing events on the Moon which have the similar profiles to those observed by neutron monitors on the Earth. Most of these events show the significant increase of proton intensities in the lunar radiation environment when the SPEs associated with solar eruptions are verified. Therefore, most of the proton intensity increasing events are associated with the energetic solar particles in the lunar environment.     

Cosmic ray studies at Moussala – Past,present and future

We review the main activities carried out at Moussala peak (2925 m above sea level, 42°11′N, 23°35′E) station in Bulgaria, connected with cosmic ray investigations during the last five decades. Several important results obtained at the station are reported. The detector design and corresponding methodological studies of the presently operational devices are shown as well, precisely the Cherenkov light telescope, lead free neutron monitor and muon telescope. The scientific potential of the existing complex is discussed.     

Cosmic ray anisotropy based on Yakutsk station in real time

The method has been developed to calculate galactic cosmic ray anisotropy parameters by using on-line data of the neutron monitor 24-NM-64 and muon telescope at the Yakutsk station. The preliminary analysis shows that characteristic changes in the anisotropy parameters caused by the first spherical harmonics of cosmic ray angular distribution are observed 1–2 days before the onset of the most part of large-scale geophysical disturbances on the Earth. There is reason to believe that the attraction of data of geophysical observations of other kinds will allow to develop the forecast methods for the arrival of large-scale interplanetary disturbances at the Earth.     

Depth dependency of neutron density produced by cosmic rays in the lunar subsurface

Depth dependency of neutrons produced by cosmic rays (CRs) in the lunar subsurface was estimated using the three-dimensional Monte Carlo particle and heavy ion transport simulation code, PHITS, incorporating the latest high energy nuclear data, JENDL/HE-2007. The PHITS simulations of equilibrium neutron density profiles in the lunar subsurface were compared with the measurement by Apollo 17 Lunar Neutron Probe Experiment (LNPE). Our calculations reproduced the LNPE data except for the 350–400 mg/cm² region under the improved condition using the CR spectra model based on the latest observations, well-tested nuclear interaction models with systematic cross section data, and JENDL/HE-2007.