Comparison of global chlorophyll concentrations using MODIS data

Chlorophyll concentrations derived from satellite borne ocean color sensors data provide an idea of the distribution of phytoplanktons across the oceans which help us in understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytoplanktons. The changes in the patterns of distribution and abundance of the planktons have significant impact on the entire ecosystem and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. In this paper, we have analyzed annual and seasonal chlorophyll concentrations retrieved from MODIS data for the periods March 2000–October 2003, which reveal the spatial and seasonal distribution of chlorophyll concentrations across the global oceans. Chlorophyll concentrations anomaly indicate that chlorophyll concentrations in almost all ocean regions responded similarly.     

Forecasting of DST variations from polar cap indices using neural networks

The 15-min averaged polar cap (PC) index was used as an input parameter for the Dst variation forecasting. The PC index is known to describe well the principal features of the solar wind as well as the total energy input to the magnetosphere. This allowed us to design a neural network able to forecast the Dst variations from 1 to 4 h ahead. 1998 PC and Dst data sets were used for training and testing and 1997 data sets was used for validation proposes. From the 15 moderate and strong geomagnetic storms observed during 1997, nine were successfully forecasted. In three cases the observed minimum Dst value was less than the predicted one, and only in three cases the neural network was not able to reproduce the features of the geomagnetic storm.     

Predicting the probability of occurrence of spread-F over Brazil using neural networks

The probability of occurrence of spread-F can be modeled and predicted using neural networks (NNs). This paper presents a feasibility study into the development of a NN based model for the prediction of the probability of occurrence of spread-F over selected equatorial stations within the Brazilian sector. The input space included the day number (seasonal variation), hour (diurnal variation), sunspot number (measure of the solar activity), magnetic index (measure of the magnetic activity) and magnetic position. Twelve years of spread-F data from Brazil (covering the period 1978–1989) measured at the equatorial site Fortaleza (3.9°S, 38.45°W) and low latitude site Cachoeira Paulista (22.6°S, 45.0°W) are used in the development of an input space and NN architecture for the model. Spread-F data that is believed to be related to plasma bubble developments (range spread-F) was used in the development of the model. The model results show the probability of spread-F occurrence as a function of local time, season and latitude. Results from the Brazilian Sector NN (BSNN) based model are presented in this paper, as well as a comparative analysis with a Brazilian model developed for the same purpose.     

复合泡沫塑料力学行为模拟的ANN方法

对人工神经网络(ANN)方法在复合泡沫塑料力学行为模拟中的应用进行了研究.首先,选取影响材料力学行为的因素和所需模拟、预测的力学性能作为输入、输出量;然后,利用反向传播算法建立了四层神经网络模型,对复合泡沫塑料的力学性能和本构关系进行了模拟和预测.数值结果表明,训练后的神经网络模型能较好地模拟、预测材料的模量、屈服强度和不同应变率及不同温度下的压缩应力-应变曲线.此外,3种不同改进训练方法的比较说明,Bayesian规则化法的泛化能力最好,LM法收敛最快,而自适应梯度下降动量法则需要较长的迭代时间才能达到相同的精度.      

An attempt to study long-term variation of sporadic E layers using neural networks

Strong positive correlation between sporadic E layers and the solar activity and the long-term declining trend of Es were found in this paper. Then the feed-forward back propagation neural networks (NNs) were used to simulate the long-term variation of Es at four stations and predict foEs yearly average values. The inputs used for NNs are the yearly mean values of foEs in the daytime of the past ten years and the yearly averaged data of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F107) of the present year, and the output is the present yearly mean value of daytime foEs. The outputs of trained NNs have high correlation with the desired values and the foEs yearly mean values predicted by NNs have good agreement with the observed data. The results indicate that NNs can make full use of the observed data to simulate the long variation rule of Es. Also, the results confirm the effect of solar activity on Es.     

Modelling of air temperature using remote sensing and artificial neural network in Turkey

The aim of this research was to forecast monthly mean air temperature based on remote sensing and artificial neural network (ANN) data by using twenty cities over Turkey. ANN contained an input layer, hidden layer and an output layer. While city, month, altitude, latitude, longitude, monthly mean land surface temperatures were chosen as inputs, and monthly mean air temperature was chosen as output for network. Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) learning algorithms and tansig, logsig and linear transfer functions were used in the network. The data of Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) and Technological Research Council of Turkey–Bilten for the period from 1995 to 2004 were chosen as training when the data of 2005 year were being used as test. Result of research was evaluated according to statistical rules. The best linear correlation coefficient (R), and root mean squared error (RMSE) between the estimated and measured values for monthly mean air temperature with ANN and remote sensing method were found to be 0.991–1.254 K, respectively.     

A new global version of M(3000)F2 prediction model based on artificial neural networks

A new version of global empirical model for the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2 prediction is presented. Artificial neural network (ANN) technique was employed by considering the relevant geophysical input parameters which are known to influence the M(3000)F2 parameter. This new version is an update to the previous neural network based M(3000)F2 global model developed by Oyeyemi et al. (2007), and aims to address the inadequacy of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) M(3000)F2 model (the International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) M(3000)F2 model). The M(3000)F2 has been found to be relatively inaccurate in representing the diurnal structure of the low latitude region and the equatorial ionosphere. In particular, the existing hmF2 IRI model is unable to reproduce the sharp post-sunset drop in M(3000)F2 values, which correspond to a sharp post-sunset peak in the peak height of the F2 layer, hmF2. Data from 80 ionospheric stations globally, including a good number of stations in the low latitude region were considered for this work. M(3000)F2 hourly values from 1987 to 2008, spanning all periods of low and high solar activity were used for model development and verification process. The ability of the new model to predict the M(3000)F2 parameter especially in the low latitude and equatorial regions, which is known to be problematic for the existing IRI model is demonstrated.     

Using neural networks to determine the optimum solar input for the prediction of ionospheric parameters

Neural networks (NNs) are proving to be ideal tools for modeling the behaviour of the ionosphere. The NNs are trained using a database of archived data describing the relationship between the output parameter and an input space. The input space is designed from knowledge of those variables that affect the behaviour of the output parameter. For ionospheric parameters this input space would always include a solar variable due to the strong influence that the sun has on ionospheric behaviour.     

Application of neural networks to South African GPS TEC modelling

The propagation of radio signals in the Earth’s atmosphere is dominantly affected by the ionosphere due to its dispersive nature. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provides relevant information that leads to the derivation of total electron content (TEC) which can be considered as the ionosphere’s measure of ionisation. This paper presents part of a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Vertical total electron content (VTEC) was calculated for four GPS receiver stations using the Adjusted Spherical Harmonic (ASHA) model. Factors that influence TEC were then identified and used to derive input parameters for the NN. The well established factors used are seasonal variation, diurnal variation, solar activity and magnetic activity. Comparison of diurnal predicted TEC values from both the NN model and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) with GPS TEC revealed that the IRI provides more accurate predictions than the NN model during the spring equinoxes. However, on average the NN model predicts GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI model over the GPS locations considered within South Africa.     

Validation of the operational IASI level 2 processor using AIRS and ECMWF data

The algorithms being implemented in EUMETSAT’s IASI Level 2 Product Processing Facility are validated with real case situations using AIRS data and comparing the retrieved atmospheric states with ECMWF analyses. The tests have been performed for clear-sky ocean scenes during daytime.

The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) retrievals show very good performance, with retrieved atmospheric states standard deviations between 1 and 2 K in temperature and 10% and 20% in relative humidity when compared with ECMWF analysis in the troposphere. The EOF retrievals show relatively smooth profiles.

Results from an iterative retrieval show a standard deviation between 2 and 3 K in temperature and 10% and 30% in relative humidity when compared with ECMWF analyses in the troposphere. They tend to show meteorologically reasonable discontinuities in both temperature and relative humidity. This seems to be the reason why they do not compare as well with ECMWF analyses as the EOF retrievals do. Whether they are closer to reality or not will have to be tested with co-located radiosondes or similar more accurate data, which generally do not exhibit such smooth vertical profiles as ECMWF analyses do.     

Estimation of vertically integrated water vapor in Hungary using MODIS imagery

Information about the amount and spatial structure of atmospheric water vapor is essential in understanding meteorology and the Earth environment. Space-borne remote sensing offers a relatively inexpensive method to estimate atmospheric water vapor in the form of integrated water vapor (IWV). The research activity reported in the present paper is based on the data acquired by the HRPT/MODIS (High Resolution Picture Transmission, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) receiving station established in Budapest (Hungary) by the Space Research Group of the Eötvös Loránd University. Integrated water vapor is estimated by the remotely sensed data of the MODIS instrument with different methods and also by the operational numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Radiosonde data are used to evaluate the accuracy of the different IWV fields though it has been pointed out that the in situ data also suffers from uncertainties. It was found that both the MODIS and the ECMWF based fields are of good accuracy. The satellite data represent finer scale spatial structures while the ECMWF data have a relatively poor spatial resolution. The high quality IWV fields have proved to be useful for radiative transfer studies such as the atmospheric correction of other satellite data from times different than the overpass times of satellites Terra/Aqua and the forecast times of the model data. For this purpose the temporal variability of IWV is scrutinized both using ECMWF and MODIS data. Taking advantage of Terra and Aqua overpasses, the mean rate of change of IWV estimated by the near infrared method was found to be 0.47 ± 0.45 kg m⁻² h⁻¹, while it was 0.13 ± 0.65 kg m⁻² h⁻¹ based on the infrared method. The numerical weather prediction model’s analysis data estimated −0.01 ± 0.13 kg m⁻² h⁻¹ for the mean growth rate, while using forecast data it was 0.24 ± 0.18 kg m⁻² h⁻¹. MODIS data should be used when available for the estimation of the IWV in other studies. If no satellite data are available, or available data are only from one overpass, ECMWF based IWV can be used. In this case the analysis fields (or the satellite field) should be used for temporal extrapolation but the rate of change should be calculated from the forecast data due to its higher temporal resolution.     

Spatial and temporal monitoring of drought conditions using the satellite rainfall estimates and remote sensing optical and thermal measurements

Drought is an important natural disaster that causes devastating impacts on the ecosystem, livestock, environment, and society. So far, various remote-sensing methods have been developed to estimate drought conditions, each of which has advantages and restrictions. This study aims to monitor the real-time drought indices at the field scales via the integration of various earth observations. Our proposed method consists of two steps. In the first step, the relationships between long-term standardized precipitation indices (SPI) derived from PERSIANN-CDR rainfall data and two drought-dependent parameters derived from MODIS products, including normalized NDVI and soil-air temperature gradient, are obtained at the spatial resolution of PERSIANN-CDR grid (approximately 25 km). As the next step, the corresponding relationships are applied to estimate the drought index maps at the spatial resolution of MODIS products (1 km). Numerous analyses are carried out to evaluate the proposed method. The results revealed that, from various drought indices, including SPIs of different timescales (1, 3, 6, and 12-months), SPI-3 and SPI-6 are more appropriate to the proposed method in terms of correlation with temperature and vegetation parameters. The findings also demonstrate the competency of the proposed method in estimating SPI indices with average RMSE 0.67 and the average correlation coefficient of 0.74.     

Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks

We are developing a system to predict the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at the Earth. These events are routinely detected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA’s ACE spacecraft, which is positioned at Lagrange Point 1 (L1). In this work, we use historical EPAM data to train an IP shock forecasting algorithm. Our approach centers on the observation that these shocks are often preceded by identifiable signatures in the energetic particle intensity data. Using EPAM data, we trained an artificial neural network to predict the time remaining until the shock arrival. After training this algorithm on 37 events, it was able to forecast the arrival time for 19 previously unseen events. The average uncertainty in the prediction 24 h in advance was 8.9 h, while the uncertainty improved to 4.6 h when the event was 12 h away. This system is accessible online, where it provides predictions of shock arrival times using real-time EPAM data.     

Estimation of sediment settling velocity in estuarine and coastal waters using optical remote sensing data

A robust method has been developed for estimating sediment settling velocity (w_s) from high resolution optical remote sensing data in estuarine, coastal and harbor waters. This method estimates settling velocity as a function of the drag coefficient (C_d), Reynolds number (Re), grain size (D₅₀), specific gravity (Δ_SG) and grain shape (in terms of the Corey Shape Factor – CSF). These parameters were derived from the particulate inherent optical properties such as backscattering (b_bp), beam attenuation (c_p), suspended sediment concentration and turbidity using Landsat 8 OLI and HICO data. Preliminary results for the Gulf of Cambay in the eastern Arabian Sea and Yangtze river estuary in the East China Sea, showed that satellite-retrieved settling velocities (m?s^?1) varied from very low values in clear oceanic waters, intermediate values in coastal waters, to very high values in river plumes and sediment-laden coastal waters. The remote sensing retrievals of sediment properties and their settling velocities were generally consistent with the field and laboratory results, which indicate that the proposed methodology will have important implications in various coastal engineering, environmental and management studies.     

Synergetic retrieval of terrestrial AOD from MODIS images of twin satellites Terra and Aqua

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is one of the most important indicators of atmospheric pollution. It can be retrieved from satellite imagery using several established methods, such as the dark dense vegetation method and the deep blue algorithm. All of these methods require estimation of surface reflectance prior to retrieval, and are applicable to a certain pre-designated type of surface cover. Such limitations can be overcome by using a synergetic method of retrieval proposed in this study. This innovative method is based on the fact that the ratio K of surface reflectance at different angles/geometries is independent of wavelength as reported by Flowerdew and Haigh (1995). An atmospheric radiative transfer model was then established and resolved with the assistance of the ratio K obtained from two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) spectral bands acquired from the twin satellites of Terra and Aqua whose overpass is separated by three hours. This synergetic method of retrieval was tested with 20 pairs of MODIS images. The retrieved AOD was validated against the ground observed AOD at the Taihu station of the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). It is found that they are correlated with the observations at a coefficient of 0.828 at 0.47 μm and 0.921 at 0.66 μm wavelengths. The retrieved AOD has a mean relative error of 25.47% at 0.47 μm and 24.3% at 0.66 μm. Of the 20 samples, 15 and 17 fall within two standard error of the line based observed AOD data on the ground at the 0.47 μm and 0.66 μm, respectively. These results indicate that this synergetic method can be used to reliably retrieve AOD from the twin satellites MODIS images, namely Terra and Aqua. It is not necessary to determine surface reflectance first.     

Storm-time atmospheric density modeling using neural networks and its application in orbit propagation

Upper atmospheric densities during geomagnetic storms are usually poorly estimated due to a lack of clear understanding of coupling mechanisms between the thermosphere and magnetosphere. Consequently, the orbit determination and propagation for low-Earth-orbit objects during geomagnetic storms have large uncertainties. Artificial neural networks are often used to identify nonlinear systems in the absence of rigorous theory. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the storm-time atmospheric density using neural networks. Considering the debate over the representative of geomagnetic storm effect, i.e. the geomagnetic indices ap and Dst, three neural network models (NNM) are developed with ap, Dst and a combination of ap and Dst respectively. The density data used for training the NNMs are derived from the measurements of the satellites CHAMP and GRACE. The NNMs are evaluated by looking at: (a) the mean residuals and the standard deviations with respect to the density data that are not used in training process, and (b) the accuracy of reconstructing the orbits of selected objects during storms employing each model. This empirical modeling technique and the comparisons with the models NRLMSIS-00 and Jacchia-Bowman 2008 reveal (1) the capability of neural networks to model the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities, and density variations; and (2) the merits and demerits of ap and Dst when it comes to characterizing density variations during storms.     

Rainfall retrieval over Indian land and oceanic regions from SSM/I microwave data

Present study focuses on the estimation of rainfall over Indian land and oceanic regions from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-13. Based on the measurements at 19.35, 22.235 and 85.5 GHz channels of SSM/I Satellite, scattering index (SI) has been developed for the Indian land and oceanic regions separately. These scattering indices were co-located against rainfall from Precipitation Radar (PR) onboard Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) to develop a new regional relationship between the SI and the rain rate for the Indian land and oceanic regions. A non-linear fit between the rain rate and the SI is established for rain measurement. In order to have confidence in our method, we have also estimated rainfall using the global rainfall and scattering index relationship developed by Ferraro and Marks [Ferraro, R.R., Marks, G.F. The development of SSM/I rain rate retrieval algorithms using ground based radar measurements. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 12, 755–770, 1995]. The validation with the rain-gauge shows that the present scheme is able to retrieve rainfall with better accuracy than that of Ferraro and Marks (1995). Further intercomparison with TRMM-2A12 and validation with rain-gauges rainfall showed that the present algorithm is able to retrieve the rainfall with reasonably good accuracy.     

Experiment for mapping land cover and it’s change in southeastern Sri Lanka utilizing 250 m resolution MODIS imageries

Utilizing freely available MODIS NDVI and Natural color imageries of 250 m spatial resolution produced by NASA, an experiment was made to map land-cover and its change with an emphasis on vegetation cover in southeastern Sri Lanka, which plays a vital role for control of green house gas. For the change detection purpose, 1987 land cover map made by present authors from Landsat MSS image and extensive ground truth survey data was used as the base map. The result of the experiment shows that MODIS data are useful to make a land cover map of 250 m spatial resolution for tropical areas with high cloud coverage like Sri Lanka. It was found that the forest cover decrease amounted as large as 21% in 19 years time span in southeastern Sri Lanka, the prominent forest region of the country. On the other hand homestead/vegetation and mixed vegetation/scrub dominant categories increased by 13.7% and 7.1%, respectively. These changes are considered due to a large clearance of forest areas for agriculture and building houses to accommodate increasing inhabitants.     

径向基过程神经元网络及其应用研究

提出了一种径向基过程神经元网络,该网络模型为3层前向结构,由输入层、径向基过程神经元隐层和输出层组成.输入层到隐层的变换是非线性的,隐层到输出层的变换是线性的.隐层神经元完成对过程式输入信息的模式匹配和对时间的聚合运算,输出层对输入模式作出响应.在输入空间中引入函数正交基,将输入函数在正交基下展开,利用基函数的正交性,简化聚合运算过程.给出了相应的学习算法,并以旋转机械故障诊断问题为例验证了模型和方法的有效性.