Solar radiometry: Total irradiance measurements

The operating principles of modern absolute radiometers are discussed and the methods of their characterization, that is the accurate determination of the uncertainties, are described. In view of this analysis, the results of the solar constant determinations of the last 6 years are reviewed and an estimate of their uncertainties given. Procedures for the strategy of future experiments are recommended.     

Solar radiometry: Spectral irradiance measurements

The present measurement accuracy of the solar spectral irradiance is insufficient to derive the real long-term solar spectral irradiance variability at all wavelengths. Possible error sources are discussed. A series of new second generation solar irradiance photometers are now under construction which should considerably improve these measurements. At the same time, efforts are made to improve the absolute UV calibration methods to derive a unified UV radiation scale.     

Solar total irradiance and sunspot area in 1981

Precise observations of the total solar irradiance in 1980 from the Solar Maximum Mission showed a strong correlation with the projected total sunspot area. This correlation “explained” about half of the variance (r ～ 0.75) in the total-irradiance data, leaving the other half for other solar phenomena and errors in the data. We have now begun the analysis of the intervening three years of “spin-mode” data, which have reduced coverage. We find that the correlation persists at about the same qualitative level, but with increased scatter that can be attributed to the smaller amount of data. The flatness of the distribution of areas of sunspot groups makes it possible to estimate PSI approximately from only the large groups.     

Solar sail optimal control with solar irradiance fluctuations

The optimization of a solar sail-based orbital transfer amounts to searching for the control law that minimizes the flight time. In this context, the optimal trajectory is usually determined assuming constant solar properties. However, the total solar irradiance undergoes both long-term (solar cycles) and short-term variations, and recent analyses have shown that this may have an impact on solar sailing for missions requiring an accurate thrust modulation. In this regard, the paper discusses a strategy to overcome such an issue by suitably adjusting the thrust vector in order to track a reference, optimal, transfer trajectory. In particular, the sail propulsive acceleration magnitude is modified by means of a set of electrochromic material panels, which change their optical properties on application of a suitable electric voltage. The proposed control law is validated with a set of numerical simulations that involve a classical Earth-Mars, orbit-to-orbit, heliocentric transfer.     

Preliminary forecast for the peak of solar activity cycle 24

Our forecast for the development phase of solar cycle 23 came out to be true; one of the very few to have attained this status out of several forecasts made. We review the details of the forecast and how it fared as the events unfolded in time. We note the present status of IMF intensity B and the planetary index Ap. We draw inferences as to what to expect for the development phase of cycle 24; several forecasts have already been made, they cover all possible scenarios, ranging from a very active to the quietest cycle in a century. Our preliminary forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at cycle 24 maximum is 101 ± 5, indicating that cycle 24 will be about 20% less active than cycle 23; the possibility that next three solar cycles may be progressively less active cannot be ruled out.     

Solar spectral irradiance variability in the ultraviolet from SORCE and UARS SOLSTICE

The SOLar-STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) on the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) has been measuring the solar spectral irradiance on a daily basis since early 2003. This time period includes near-solar maximum conditions, the Halloween storms of 2003, and solar minimum conditions. These results can be compared to observations from the SOLSTICE I experiment that flew on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during the decline of the previous solar cycle as well as with currently operating missions. We will discuss similarities and differences between the two solar cycles in the long-term ultraviolet irradiance record.     

Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques

Nowadays operational models for solar activity forecasting are still based on the statistical relationship between solar activity and solar magnetic field evolution. In order to set up this relationship, many parameters have been proposed to be the measures. Conventional measures are based on the sunspot group classification which provides limited information from sunspots. For this reason, new measures based on solar magnetic field observations are proposed and a solar flare forecasting model supported with an artificial neural network is introduced. This model is equivalent to a person with a long period of solar flare forecasting experience.     

Solar corona irradiance variability during the 1943–1999 period

We present different aspects of the large-scale distribution of the coronal Fe XIV 530.3 nm emission line brightness (the abbreviation CGL — coronal green line — is used below). Evolution of this line intensity over the solar cycles is demonstrated and the relevance of the solar middle-latitude zones in displaying the coronal activity and variability is underlined.     

Total solar irradiance and climate

The solar radiation is the fundamental source of energy that drives the Earth’s climate and sustains life. The variability of this output certainly affects our planet. In the last two decades an enormous advance in the understanding of the variability of the solar irradiance has been achieved. Space-based measurements indicate that the total solar irradiance changes at various time scales, from minutes to the solar cycle.Climate models show that total solar irradiance variations can account for a considerable part of the temperature variation of the Earth’s atmosphere in the pre-industrial era. During the 20th century its relative influence on the temperature changes has descended considerably. This means that other sources of solar activity as well as internal and man-made causes are contributing to the Earth’s temperature variability, particularly the former in the 20th century.Some very challenging questions concerning total solar irradiance variations and climate have been raised: are total solar irradiance variations from cycle to cycle well represented by sunspot and facular changes? Does total solar irradiance variations always parallel the solar activity cycle? Is there a long-term variation of the total solar irradiance, and closely related to this, is the total solar irradiance output of the quiet sun constant? If there is not a long-term trend of total solar irradiance variations, then we need amplifying mechanisms of total solar irradiance to account for the good correlations found between total solar irradiance and climate. The latter because the observed total solar irradiance changes are inconsequential when introduced in present climate models.     

Active region properties and irradiance variations

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has been measured for more than three decades. These observations demonstrate that total irradiance changes on time scales ranging from minutes to years and decades. Considerable efforts have been made to understand the physical origin of irradiance variations and to model the observed changes using measures of sunspots and faculae. In this paper, we study the short-term variations in TSI during the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 22 and the rising portion of cycle 23 (1993–1998). This time interval of low solar activity allows us to study the effect of individual sunspot groups on TSI in detail. In this paper, we indicate that the effect of sunspot groups on total irradiance may depend on their type in the Zürich classification system and/or their evolution, and on their magnetic configuration. Some uncertainties in the data and other effects are also discussed.     

太阳光谱辐射强度变化对地球能量平衡的影响分析

目前太阳对地球能量平衡影响的研究大都是以太阳总辐射通量密度作为输入参数的. 本文以美国航空航天局（National Aeronautics and Space Administration,NASA）太阳辐射与气候实验项目的卫星实测数据为基础,对太阳上升相（2010年上半年）和下降相（2007年12月）期间太阳光谱变化对地球能量平衡的影响进行了研究. 结果表明,2010年上半年较强的太阳总辐射通量密度主要是由紫外及红外波段的能量增强引起的,其在200～400nm 和760～4000nm波段内的平均能量分别增加了0.11%和0.05%,而在 400～760nm可见光区的能量却呈减小趋势,平均减小量为0.05%. 通过对MLS2.2全球臭氧日数据进行再分析后发现,相对于2007年12月,2010年上半年平流层臭氧浓度也有所增加,其中在太阳紫外辐射呈现较大增强的2月和3月,其臭氧增量也相对较大,最大值分别出现在33km和40km处,值为0.6mL·m^-3和0.62mL·m^-3. 因此,可见光区能量减弱与平流层臭氧浓度增加的双重削弱作用致使虽然2010年上半年的太阳总辐射通量密度较大,但是到达对流层顶的太阳辐射却有所减小,最大减小量出现在3月,值为0.15W·m^-2. 这一结果说明,太阳活动或总辐射通量密度的增强也有可能对地球对流层系统起到冷却作用.     

准直光学系统热变形对太阳模拟器性能影响研究

为了给太阳模拟器系统热管理提供可靠的技术依据,研究了准直光学系统热变形对系统性能的影响。选取项目组自主研发的高精度太阳模拟器准直光学系统作为研究对象,利用有限元软件仿真实际工作条件下各光学元件表面温度及热变形分布,将通光表面变形数据拟合为泽尼克系数导入光学设计软件中,分析热变形对系统准直角误差及辐照均匀度影响。研究结果表明：在未采取温控措施的自然对流条件下,热变形造成±1′的准直角误差和41.3%的辐照不均匀度,超出允许范围,需进行温控。通过光机集成分析法,给出了不同温度下,对流系数与热变形导致的准直角误差和辐照不均匀度对应关系,为风冷温控系统工程化设计提供了依据。     

Solar maximum mission experiment: Early results of the hard X-ray imaging experiment

We have selected four widely different flares from the early period of operations of the Hard X-Ray Imaging Spectrometer (HXIS) on SMM to illustrate the characteristic imaging properties of this experiment. For the small flare of April 4, 1980, we demonstrate the instrument's capability for locating a compact source. In the weak, but extensive, flare of April 6 we show how well the instrument can display spatial structure, and also the low level of the instrument background. In the 1B flare of April 7 we are able to locate positions of the X-ray emission in the soft and hard channels, and estimate the positional variations of the emission patches. Finally, in the IN flare of April 10, which produced the strongest hard X-ray burst we have seen so far, we repeat some of the studies made for the April 7 event, and also demonstrate the capability of the HXIS instrument to study the development, with high time resolution, of individual 8″ × 8″ elements of the flare.     

Solar and late-type dwarfs

The Einstein Observatory and the IUE satellite have provided the observational basis for a major restructuring in theories of coronal formation for late-type stars. For the first time, coronal and transition region emission from a large sample of low mass (1 M_o) dwarf stars has been directly observed, with the unexpected result that essentially all such stars are x-ray emitters. The Sun, which was previously assumed to be typical, is now known to be at the low end of the x-ray luminosity function for solar-type stars. K- and M-dwarfs are observed to have nearly the same luminosity distributions as G-dwarfs and all of these spectral types have a large spread in x-ray luminosity.Observationally, there is a strong correlation between the strength of coronal emission in stars with outer convective zones and the rotation rates of these stars. At the present time we have only the beginnings of a satisfactory theoretical explanation for this correlation; although we are beginning to understand the connection between coronal emission strength and the magnetic field, we do not yet understand the stellar dynamo which generates the magnetic field. Studies of the coronal emission of stars may lead to a better understanding of stellar dynamos.     

Forecasting magnetopause crossing locations by using Neural Networks

Given the highly complex and nonlinear nature of Near Earth Space processes, mathematical modeling of these processes is usually difficult or impossible. In such cases, modeling methods involving Artificial Intelligence may be employed. We demonstrate that data driven models, such as the Neural Network based approach, shows promise in its ability to forecast or predict the behavior of these processes. In this paper, modeling studies for forecasting magnetopause crossing locations are summarized and a Neural Network algorithm is presented to describe the nonlinear time-dependent response of the subsolar region of the magnetopause to varying solar wind conditions. In our approach the past history of the solar wind has, for the first time to the best knowledge of the authors, been included in forecasting the subsolar region of the magnetopause. It is proposed that the data driven approach is a valid approach to understanding and modeling the physical phenomena of Near Earth Space. The only basic requirement for the data driven approach is the availability of representative data for the phenomena. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that by using WIND and GEOTAIL satellite data a Neural Network based model can be adapted to the modeling of the Earth’s magnetopause.     

Recent advances in observations and modeling of the solar ultraviolet and X-ray spectral irradiance

There have been significant, recent advances in understanding the solar ultraviolet (UV) and X-ray spectral irradiance from several different satellite missions and from new efforts in modeling the variations of the solar spectral irradiance. The recent satellite missions with solar UV and X-ray spectral irradiance observations include the X-ray Sensor (XRS) aboard the series of NOAA GOES spacecraft, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), the SOHO Solar EUV Monitor (SEM), the Solar XUV Photometers (SXP) on the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE), the Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) aboard the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Dynamics, and Energetics (TIMED) satellite, and the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite. The combination of these measurements is providing new results on the variability of the solar ultraviolet irradiance throughout the ultraviolet range shortward of 200 nm and over a wide range of time scales ranging from years to seconds. The solar UV variations of flares are especially important for space weather applications and upper atmosphere research, and the period of intense solar storms in October–November 2003 has provided a wealth of new information about solar flares. The new efforts in modeling these solar UV spectral irradiance variations range from simple empirical models that use solar proxies to more complicated physics-based models that use emission measure techniques. These new models provide better understanding and insight into why the solar UV irradiance varies, and they can be used at times when solar observations are not available for atmospheric studies.     

Solar UV and ozone balloon measurements

Absolute solar UV spectra were obtained with a $\text{1}\text{4}$m spectrometer on a balloon flight from Palestine, Texas on September 23, 1981. This balloon reached a float altitude of 39 km at solar noon. The ozone density profiles derived from these spectra are discussed. The measurements are compared with data obtained from the same calibrated instrument flown in 1976 at solar minimum.     

宇宙线变化特征在强地磁暴预报中的应用

利用宇宙线中子探测数据定性分析了地面宇宙线多台站之间的相互联系以及大磁暴与宇宙线之间的响应关系. 以Irkutsk和Oulu宇宙线台站为例, 运用小波去噪技术提高数据的稳定性. 结果表明, 相同世界时条件下, 两站宇宙线通量相关性在事件发生时较高; 而相同地方时条件下, 相关性则在平静期较高. 进一步采用相同地方时条件对不同宇宙线台站的通量在平静期和扰动期的相对变化进行分析, 选取2004年7月强地磁暴典型事例进行直观分析, 发现大地磁暴前Irkutsk和Oulu台站的宇宙线相对通量发生明显差异, 可以尝试作为强地磁暴宇宙线先兆特征. 通过对2001年3月至2005年5月的强磁暴和中强磁暴进行统计, 得到与强地磁暴相关的适当宇宙线相对差异阈值. 将得到的阈值对2005年9月至2011年12月所有强磁暴及中强磁暴进行验证, 总成功率达到87.5%, 误报率为35.7%, 结果较好.     

Effects of optical parameter measurement uncertainties and solar irradiance fluctuations on solar sailing

The heliocentric orbital dynamics of a spacecraft propelled by a solar sail is affected by some uncertainty sources, including possible inaccuracies in the measurement of the sail film optical properties. Moreover, the solar radiation pressure, which is responsible for the solar sail propulsive acceleration generation, is not time-constant and is subject to fluctuations that are basically unpredictable and superimposed to the well-known 11-year solar activity cycle. In this context, this work aims at investigating the effects of such uncertainties on the actual heliocentric trajectory of a solar sail by means of stochastic simulations performed with a generalized polynomial chaos procedure. The numerical results give an estimation of their impact on the actual heliocentric trajectory and identify whether some of the uncertainty sources are more relevant than others. This is a fundamental information for directing more accurate theoretical and experimental efforts toward the most important parameters, in order to obtain an accurate knowledge of the solar sail thrust vector characteristics and, eventually, of the spacecraft heliocentric position.     

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.