The hydroxyl radical as an indicator of SEP fluxes in the high-latitude terrestrial atmosphere

The low background values at nighttime of the mesospheric hydroxyl (OH) radical make it easier to single out the atmospheric response to the external solar forcing in Polar Regions. Because of the short lifetime of HO_x, it is possible to follow the trails of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in the terrestrial atmosphere, as shown by Storini and Damiani (2008). The sensitivity of this indicator makes discernible not only extreme particle events with a flux peak of several thousand pfu [1 pfu = 1 particle/(cm² s sr)] at energies >10 MeV, but also those with lower flux up to about 300 pfu. Using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board the EOS AURA satellite, we examined the correlation of OH abundance vs. solar proton flux for almost all the identified SEP events spanning from November 2004 to December 2006 (later on no more SEP events occurred during Solar Cycle no. 23). The channels at energies greater than 5 MeV and 10 MeV showed the best correlation values (r ∼ 0.90–0.95) at altitudes around 65–75 km whereas, as expected, the most energetic channels were most highly correlated at lower altitudes. Therefore, it is reasonably possible to estimate the solar proton flux from values of mesospheric OH (and viceversa) and it could be useful in studying periods with gaps in the records of solar particles.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

Heliogeophysical factors at time of death determine lifespan for people who die of cardiovascular diseases

The aim of the study is to explore whether age at death from cardiovascular diseases depends on solar and geomagnetic activities. The data were collected for 1970–1978 in Novosibirsk, West Siberia, for industrial workers of Siberian origin. The Spearman correlations are computed between linearly detrended lifespan and daily or monthly physical variables to establish immediate (lag, L = 0), delayed (L = 1–3 days) and cumulative (L = ±30 days) influences. Significant correlations ranging from r = −0.26 to r = −0.30 for L from 0 to 3, respectively, are found for men between solar radio flux at wavelength 10.7 cm and age at death from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) but not from acute heart failure, ischemic heart disease and stroke. For AMI, women’s longevity displays an opposite (direct) association with the average solar character occurred at the calendar month of death. The index of geomagnetic activity, Ap, exhibits inverse association with longevity for the AMI stratum for both sexes. GLM univariate procedure revealed higher contribution of Ap to the variance of lifespan compared to season of death. The individual age at death susceptibility to cosmic influences is found to depend upon solar activity at year of birth. It is concluded that associations between the lifespan for cardiovascular decedents and the indices of solar and geomagnetic activities at time of death and of birth are cause-of-death- and sex-specific.     

Jovian periodicities (∼10 h, ∼40 min) on Ulysses’ Distant Jupiter Encounter observations around the Halloween CIR events

We analyzed data from four different instruments (HI-SCALE, URAP, SWOOPS, VHM/FGM) onboard Ulysses spacecraft (s/c) and we searched for possible evidence of Jovian emissions when the s/c approached Jupiter during the times of Halloween events (closest time approach/position to Jupiter: February 5, 2004/R = 1683 R_J,θ = ∼49°). In particular, we analyzed extensively the low energy ion measurements obtained by the HI-SCALE experiment in order to examine whether low energy ion/electron emissions show a symmetry, and whether they are observed at north high latitudes upstream from the jovian bow shock, as is known to occur in the region upstream from the south bow shock as well ( Marhavilas et al., 2001). We studied the period from October 2003 to March 2004, as Ulysses moved at distances 0.8–1.2 AU from the planet at north Jovicentric latitudes <75°, and we present here an example of characteristic Jovian periodicities in the measurements around a CIR observed by Ulysses on days ∼348–349/2003 (R = 1894 R_J,θ = 72°). We show that Ulysses observed low energy ion (∼0.055–4.7 MeV) and electron (>∼40 keV) flux and/or spectral modulation with the Jupiter rotation period (∼10 h) as well as variations with the same period in solar wind parameters, radio and magnetic field directional data. In addition, characteristic strong ∼40 min periodic variations were found superimposed on the ∼10 h ion spectral modulation. Both the ∼10 h and ∼40 min ion periodicities in HI-SCALE measurements were present in several cases during the whole period examined (October 2003 to March 2004) and were found to be more evident during some special conditions, for instance during enhanced fluxes around the start (forward shock) and the end (reverse shock) of CIRs. We infer that the Jovian magnetosphere was triggered by the impact of the CIRs, after the Halloween events, and it was (a) a principal source of forward and reverse shock-associated ion flux structures and (b) the cause of generation of ∼10 h quasi-periodic magnetic field and plasma modulation observed by Ulysses at those times.     

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

Viewing radiation signatures of solar energetic particles in interplanetary space

A current serious limitation on the studies of solar energetic particle (SEP) events is that their properties in the inner heliosphere are studied only through in situ spacecraft observations. Our understanding of spatial distributions and temporal variations of SEP events has come through statistical studies of many such events over several solar cycles. In contrast, flare SEPs in the solar corona can be imaged through their radiative and collisional interactions with solar fields and particles. We suggest that the heliospheric SEPs may also interact with heliospheric particles and fields to produce signatures which can be remotely observed and imaged. A challenge with any such candidate signature is to separate it from that of flare SEPs. The optimum case for imaging high-energy (E > 100 MeV) heliospheric protons may be the emission of π⁰-decay γ-rays following proton collisions with solar wind (SW) ions. In the case of E > 1 MeV electrons, gyrosynchrotron radio emission may be the most readily detectible remote signal. In both cases we may already have observed one or two such events. Another radiative signature from nonthermal particles may be resonant transition radiation, which has likely already been observed from solar flare electrons. We discuss energetic neutrons as another possible remote signature, but we rule out γ-ray line and 0.511 MeV positron annihilation emission as observable signatures of heliospheric energetic ions. We are already acquiring global signatures of large inner-heliospheric SW density features and of heliosheath interactions between the SW and interstellar neutral ions. By finding an appropriate observable signature of remote heliospheric SEPs, we could supplement the in situ observations with global maps of energetic SEP events to provide a comprehensive view of SEP events.     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content in Taiwan region of the equatorial anomaly from 1994 to 2003

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in the northern hemispheric equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) region is studied by analyzing dual-frequency signals of the Global Position System (GPS) acquired from a chain of nine observational sites clustered around Taiwan (21.9–26.2°N, 118.4–112.6°E). In this study, we present results from a statistical study of seasonal and geomagnetic effects on the EIA during solar cycle 23: 1994–2003. It is found that TEC at equatorial anomaly crests yield their maximum values during the vernal and autumnal months and their minimum values during the summer (except 1998). Using monthly averaged I_c (magnitude of TEC at the northern anomaly crest), semi-annual variations is seen clearly with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. In addition, I_c is found to be greater in winter than in summer. Statistically monthly values of I_c were poorly correlated with the monthly Dst index (r = −0.22) but were well correlated with the solar emission F_10.7 index (r = 0.87) for the entire database for the period during 1994–2003. In contrast, monthly values of I_c were correlated better with Dst (r ? 0.72) than with F_10.7 (r ? 0.56) in every year during the low solar activity period (1994–1997). It suggests that the effect of solar activity on I_c is a longer term (years), whereas the effect of geomagnetic activity on I_c is a shorter term (months).     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

Ozone variability related to several SEP events occurring during solar cycle no. 23

Data from geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) series were used to identify intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events occurred during the solar activity cycle no. 23. We retrieved O₃, NO, NO₂, HNO₃, OH, HCl and OHCl profiles coming from different satellite sensors (solar occultation and limb emission) and we looked for the mesospheric/stratospheric response to SEPs at high terrestrial latitudes. The chemistry of the minor atmospheric components is analysed to evaluate the associated odd nitrogen (NO_x) and odd hydrogen (HO_x) production, able to cause short (h) and medium (days) term ozone variations. We investigated the effects of SEPs on the polar atmosphere in three different seasons, i.e., January 2005, April 2002 and July 2000. The inter-hemispheric variability of the ozone, induced by the SEP series of January 2005, has been compared with the effects connected both to larger and quite similar events. We found that during SEP events: (i) solar illumination is the key factor driving SEP-induced effects on the chemistry of the polar atmosphere; (ii) even events with limited particle flux in the range 15–40 MeV are able to change the abundance of the minor constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere.     

Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest, and sometimes alarm, because bright aurora becomes visible at mid-latitudes. However, they had little economic impact because the major technologies of those eras were not sensitive to space weather. This is no longer true. The widespread adoption of advanced technological infrastructures over the past 40 years has created significant sensitivity. So these events now have the potential to disrupt those infrastructures – and thus have profound economic and societal impact. However, like all extreme hazards, such events are rare, so we have limited data on which to build our understanding of the events. This limitation is uniquely serious for space weather since it is a global phenomenon. Many other natural hazards (e.g. flash floods) are highly localised, so statistically significant datasets can be assembled by combining data from independent instances of the hazard recorded over a few decades. Such datasets are the foundation on which reliable risk assessment methodologies are built. But we have a single instance of space weather so we would have to make observations for many centuries in order to build a statistically significant dataset. We show that it is not practicable to assess the risk from extreme events using simple statistical methods. Instead we must exploit our knowledge of solar-terrestrial physics to find other ways to assess these risks. We discuss three alternative approaches: (a) use of proxy data, (b) studies of other solar systems, and (c) use of physics-based modelling. We note that the proxy data approach is already well-established as a technique for assessing the long-term risk from radiation storms, but does not yet provide any means to assess the risk from severe geomagnetic storms. This latter risk is more suited to the other approaches, but significant research is needed to make progress. We need to develop and expand techniques to monitoring key space weather features in other solar systems (stellar flares, radio emissions from planetary aurorae). And to make progress in modelling severe space weather, we need to focus on the physics that controls severe geomagnetic storms, e.g. how can dayside and tail reconnection be modulated to expand the region of open flux to envelop mid-latitudes?     

Effect of geomagnetic disturbances on physiological parameters: An investigation on aviators

Over the last years the potential effect that the geomagnetic activity may have on human physiological parameters (such as heart rate, arterial diastolic and systolic pressure) is being widely investigated with irrefutable results. As it is suggested, human health can be affected by solar activity and related geophysical changes. In this study a group of 4018 Slovak aviators was examined from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2002, covering periods with high solar and geomagnetic activity. Specifically, medical data of mean values of arterial diastolic and systolic blood pressure, which were registered during the medical examinations of the Slovak aviators, were related to daily variations of Dst and Ap geomagnetic indices. All subjects were men (from 18 to 60 years old) in good health. Statistical significance levels (p-values) of the effect of geomagnetic activity on the aforementioned parameters up to three days before and three days after the geomagnetic event were established using the statistical method ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA). Statistical analysis of the arterial blood pressure variations for different levels of geomagnetic activity revealed that geomagnetic changes are connected to variations of the human physiological parameters.     

Interpretation of the SOHO/UVCS observations of two CME-driven shocks

We report on the analysis of two fast CME-driven shocks observed with the UltraViolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The first event, detected on 2002 March 22 at 4.1 R_⊙ with the UVCS slit placed in correspondence with the flank of the expanding CME surface, represents the highest UV detection of a shock obtained so far with the UVCS instrument in the corona. The second one, detected on 2002 July 23 at 1.6 R_⊙ with the UVCS slit placed in correspondence with the front of the expanding CME surface, shows an anomalous deficiency of ion heating with respect to what observed in previous CME/shocks observed by UVCS, possibly reflecting the effect of different coronal plasma conditions over the solar cycle. From the two different sets of observations we derived an estimate for the shock compression ratio X, which turns out to be X = 2.4 ± 0.2 and X = 2.2 ± 0.1, respectively, for the first and second event. Comparison between the two events provides complementary perspectives on the dynamical evolution of CME-driven shocks.     

Solar particle precipitation into the polar atmosphere and their dependence on hemisphere and local time

The precipitation of solar energetic particles, protons as well as electrons, at high latitudes is commonly assumed to be homogeneous across both polar caps. Using Low-Earth Orbit POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites) we determine particle penetration ratios into the polar atmosphere for protons ranging from about 0.1 MeV to 500 MeV and for electrons spanning about one order of magnitude in energy with a maximum of 0.3 MeV. Based on power law fits for the POES spectrum we show, that for energies interesting for middle and lower atmosphere chemistry, particle flux over the poles is comparable in magnitude to flux at the geostationary orbit or at L1 in interplanetary space. The time period under study are the solar energetic particle (SEP) event series of October/November 2003 and January 2005.     

Changes in sea-level pressure over South Korea associated with high-speed solar wind events

We explore a possibility that the daily sea-level pressure (SLP) over South Korea responds to the high-speed solar wind event. This is of interest in two aspects: first, if there is a statistical association this can be another piece of evidence showing that various meteorological observables indeed respond to variations in the interplanetary environment. Second, this can be a very crucial observational constraint since most models proposed so far are expected to preferentially work in higher latitude regions than the low latitude region studied here. We have examined daily solar wind speed V, daily SLP difference ΔSLP, and daily log(BV²) using the superposed epoch analysis in which the key date is set such that the daily solar wind speed exceeds 800 km s⁻¹. We find that the daily ΔSLP averaged out of 12 events reaches its peak at day +1 and gradually decreases back to its normal level. The amount of positive deviation of ΔSLP is +2.5 hPa. The duration of deviation is a few days. We also find that ΔSLP is well correlated with both the speed of solar wind and log(BV²). The obtained linear correlation coefficients and chance probabilities with one-day lag for two cases are r ? 0.81 with P > 99.9%, and r ? 0.84 with P > 99.9%, respectively. We conclude by briefly discussing future direction to pursue.     

Cluster observations of earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes in the near-tail during the course of a substorm event

We analyze the magnetic structures in the near-tail at Xgsm = −17.5 Re on September 19, 2003 by Cluster. During the course of a substorm event, the earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes in the near-tail are observed. The earthward propagating plasmoid is associated with the bipolar Bz and By signatures. The two flux ropes are embedded within the earthward plasma flows, which might be referred to the population as ‘‘BBF-type’’ flux ropes. The first flux rope diameter is about 0.7 Re and duration based upon the Bz signature is ∼20 s, while the second one diameter is about 1.4 Re and duration is ∼30 s. The earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes could have influence upon the dipolarization and injection in inner magnetosphere. The Cluster observations of earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes can be interpreted as strong evidence for multiple X-lines. Our observations are consistent with that multiple plasmoids or flux ropes are formed repeatedly and ejected tailward in the course of geomagnetically active time.     

Variations in statistical parameters of the NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry with latitude and solar activity near noon

Hourly values of the F2-layer peak density, NmF2, measured by 95 ionosondes near noon from 1957 to 2011 at low and middle geomagnetic latitudes of the northern and southern geographic hemispheres are used in a statistical study of the NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry. The ratios, R, of NmF2 measured during 61 days around the March equinox to NmF2 measured during 61 days around the September equinox at the same UT near noon during geomagnetically quiet daytime conditions for approximately the same solar activity conditions over the same ionosonde are analyzed. The conditional probability of the occurrence of R in an interval of R, the most probable value of R, and the mean expected value of R are calculated for the first time for the low, moderate, and high solar activity levels to study variations in these statistical parameters with latitude and solar activity. These statistical parameters are averaged over 5° geomagnetic latitude interval in the northern and southern geographic hemispheres to calculate and to study for the first time trends in latitude and solar activity of these averaged NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry statistical characteristics.     

Solar activity dependence of total electron content derived from GPS observations over Mbarara

Vertical total electron content (VTEC) observed at Mbarara (geographic co-ordinates: 0.60°S, 30.74°E; geomagnetic coordinates: 10.22°S, 102.36°E), Uganda, for the period 2001–2009 have been used to study the diurnal, seasonal and solar activity variations. The daily values of the 10.7 cm radio flux (F_10.7) and sunspot number (R) were used to represent Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Variability (EUV). VTEC is generally higher during high solar activity period for all the seasons and increases from 0600 h LT and reaches its maximum value within 1400 h–1500 h LT. All analysed linear and quadratic fits demonstrate positive VTEC-F_10.7 and positive VTEC-R correlation, with all fits at 0000 h and 1400 h LT being significant with a confidence level of 95% when both linear and quadratic models are used. All the fits at 0600 h LT are insignificant with a confidence level of 95%. Generally, over Mbarara, quadratic fit shows that VTEC saturates during all seasons for F_10.7 more than 200 units and R more than 150 units. The result of this study can be used to improve the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) prediction of TEC around the equatorial region of the African sector.