The impact on tsunami detection from space using GNSS-reflectometry when combining GPS with GLONASS and Galileo

The devastating Sumatra tsunami in 2004 demonstrated the need for a tsunami early warning system in the Indian Ocean. Such a system has been installed within the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) project. Tsunamis are a global phenomenon and for global observations satellites are predestined. Within the GITEWS project a feasibility study on a future tsunami detection system from space has therefore been carried out. The Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) is an innovative way of using GNSS signals for remote sensing. It uses ocean reflected GNSS signals for sea surface altimetry. With a dedicated Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation of satellites equipped with GNSS-R receivers, densely spaced sea surface height measurements could be established to detect tsunamis. Some general considerations on the geometry between LEO and GNSS are made in this simulation study. It exemplary analyzes the detection performance of a GNSS-R constellation at 900 km altitude and 60° inclination angle when applied to the Sumatra tsunami as it occurred in 2004. GPS is assumed as signal source and the combination with GLONASS and Galileo signals is investigated. It can be demonstrated, that the combination of GPS and Galileo is advantageous for constellations with few satellites while the combination with GLONASS is preferable for constellations with many satellites. If all three GNSS are combined, the best detection performance can be expected for all scenarios considered. In this case an 18 satellite constellation will detect the Sumatra tsunami within 17 min with certainty, while it takes 53 min if only GPS is considered.     

On the uncertainties in the measurement of absolute (true) TEC over Indian equatorial and low latitude sectors

The Indian sector encompasses the equatorial and low latitude regions where the ionosphere is highly dynamic and is characterized by the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) resulting in large latitudinal electron density gradients causing errors and uncertainties in the estimation of range delays in satellite based navigation systems. The diurnal and seasonal variations of standard deviations in the TEC data measured during the low sunspot period 2004–2005 at 10 different Indian stations located from equator to the anomaly crest region and beyond are examined and presented. The day-to-day variability in TEC is found to be lowest at the equatorial station and increases with latitude up to the crest region of EIA and decreases beyond.     

Chlorophyll,calcite, and suspended sediment concentrations in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea at the river mouths

Chlorophyll and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) and sea surface temperature (SST) are important parameters in assessing the productivity of coastal regions. Numerous rivers flow into the eastern (Ganga, Subernarekha, Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna, Penner, and Kaveri) and western (Narmada, Tapti, and Indus) coasts of the Indian sub-continent. Using IRS P4 (Oceansat-1) Ocean Color Monitor (OCM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, we have retrieved chlorophyll, calcite, and SSC near the mouth of these rivers for the period during 2000–2004. The maxima of chlorophyll-a concentrations at the river mouth is much higher for the Himalayan and north India rivers (Ganga, Subernarekha, Mahanadi, and Indus) (10–14 mg/m³) compared to rivers in the southern parts of India (Kaveri and Penner) (∼4 mg/m³). The maxima of calcite concentration (∼45 moles/m³), chlorophyll (∼14 mg/m³), and sediment concentrations (∼9 g/m³) near river mouth are found to be influenced by river discharges (Ganga and Brahmaputra) during the monsoon season. The calcite concentration (∼45 moles/m³) at the mouth of Ganga river shows a major peak with the onset of monsoon season (June–July) followed by a maxima in chlorophyll-a with a time lag of 1–2 months. The Krishna, Kaveri, and Penner rivers show low chlorophyll concentrations (3–8 mg/m³), high calcite (0–40 moles/m³), and low SSC (<3 g/m³) compared to Narmada and Tapti rivers (chlorophyll-a 12–14 mg/m³, calcite 0–2 moles/m³, and SSC 13–19 g/m³). The Indus river shows similar behavior (maxima of chlorophyll ∼13 mg/m³ and SSC ∼8 g/m³) with respect to Ganga river except for high calcite concentration during winter months (∼25 moles/m³). The characteristics of the chlorophyll, calcite, and SSC at the mouth of these rivers show spatial and temporal variability along the eastern and westerns coasts of India which are found to differ widely. A comparison of the chlorophyll concentrations using OCM and MODIS data shows low chlorophyll concentrations in the Bay of Bengal as compared to the Arabian Sea.     

Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS)

Early warning systems represent an innovative and effective approach to mitigate the risk associated with natural hazards. Early warning technologies are now available for almost all natural hazards and systems are already in operation in all parts of the world. Nevertheless, recent disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Katrina hurricane in 2005, highlighted inadequacies in early warning technologies.

Efforts towards the development of a global warning system are necessary for turning the tide in early warning processes and technologies. There is a pressing need for a globally comprehensive early warning system based on existing systems. The global system should be a mechanism which can consolidate scientific information and evidences, package this knowledge in a form usable to international and national decision makers and actively disseminate this information to those users.

The proposed Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS) will provide information emanating from monitoring, Earth observing and early warning systems to users in a near-real-time mode and bridge the gap between the scientific community and policy makers. Characteristics and operational aspects of such a service, GEAS, are discussed.     

An investigation of ionospheric F region response in the Brazilian sector to the super geomagnetic storm of May 2005

In this paper, we have investigated the responses of the ionospheric F region at equatorial and low latitude regions in the Brazilian sector during the super geomagnetic storm on 15–16 May 2005. The geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst of −263 nT at 0900 UT on 15 May. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (vTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations obtained at Belém, Brasília, Presidente Prudente, and Porto Alegre, Brazil, during the period 14–17 May 2005. Also, we present ionospheric parameters h’F, hpF2, and foF2, using the Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI) obtained at Palmas and São José dos Campos, Brazil, for the same period. The super geomagnetic storm has fast decrease in the Dst index soon after SSC at 0239 UT on 15 May. It is a good possibility of prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin resulting in uplifting of the F region. The vTEC observations show a trough at BELE and a crest above UEPP, soon after SSC, indicating strengthening of nighttime equatorial anomaly. During the daytime on 15 and 16 May, in the recovery phase, the variations in foF2 at SJC and the vTEC observations, particularly at BRAZ, UEPP, and POAL, show large positive ionospheric storm. There is ESF on the all nights at PAL, in the post-midnight (UT) sector, and phase fluctuations only on the night of 14–15 May at BRAZ, after the SSC. No phase fluctuations are observed at the equatorial station BELE and low latitude stations (BRAZ, UEPP, and POAL) at all other times. This indicates that the plasma bubbles are generated and confined on this magnetically disturbed night only up to the low magnetic latitude and drifted possibly to west.     

Investigation into impact of tropical cyclones on the ionosphere using GPS sounding and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data

Ionospheric response to tropical cyclones (TCs) was estimated experimentally on the example of three powerful cyclones – KATRINA (23–31 August 2005), RITA (18–26 September 2005), and WILMA (15–25 October 2005). These TCs were active near the USA Atlantic coast. Investigation was based on Total Electron Content (TEC) data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers and the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. We studied the spatial–temporal dynamics of wave TEC disturbances over two periods of ranges (02–20 min and 20–60 min). To select the ionospheric disturbances which were most likely to be associated with the cyclones, maps of TEC disturbances were compared with those of meteorological parameters.     

Observations of TEC depletions over Indian low latitudes

Results pertaining to the latitudinal extent of the ionospheric irregularities in terms of TEC depletions have been presented for the two nights namely; 28 October 2004 and 7 February 2005. This study has been carried out using the GPS–TEC over the Indian low latitude stations, at Udaipur, Hyderabad and Bengaluru. This is probably the first report of simultaneous GPS observation of TEC depletions over different latitudes from the Indian sector. The results show that the amplitude of TEC depletions due to the equatorial spread F may vary with time and the location of the observation. The maximum amplitude of the TEC depletion has been found to be about 30 TECU over Hyderabad. The depletions in TEC are found to be field aligned.     

Comparative analysis of TEC disturbances over tropical cyclone zones in the North–West Pacific Ocean

In this paper, we study ionospheric total electron content (TEC) disturbances associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). The study relies on the statistical analysis of six cyclones of different intensity which occurred in the North–West Pacific Ocean in September–November 2005. We have used TEC data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers and NCEP/NCAR meteorological archive. TEC variations of different period ranges (02–20 and 20–60 min) are shown to be more intense during TC peaks under quiet geomagnetic conditions. The highest TEC variation amplitudes are registered when the wind speed in the cyclone and the TC area are maximum. The intensification of TEC disturbances is more pronounced when several cyclones occur simultaneously. We have revealed that the ionospheric response to TC can be observed only after the cyclone has reached typhoon intensity. The ionospheric response is more pronounced at low satellite elevation angles.     

The asymmetrical features in electron density during extreme solar minimum

The variations of plasma density in topside ionosphere during 23rd/24th solar cycle minimum attract more attentions in recently years. In this analysis, we use the data of electron density (Ne) from DEMETER (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite at the altitude of 660–710 km to investigate the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry under geomagnetic coordinate system at LT (local time) 1030 and 2230 during 2005–2010, especially in solar minimum years of 2008–2009. The results reveal that ΔNe (December–June) is always positive over Southern Hemisphere and negative over northern part whatever at LT 1030 or 2230, only at 0–10°N the winter anomaly occurs with ΔNe (December–June) > 0, and its amplitude becomes smaller with the declining of solar flux from 2005 to 2009. The ΔNe between September and March is completely negative during 2005–2008, but in 2009, it turns to be positive at latitudes of 20°S–40°N at LT 1030 and 10°S–20°N at LT 2230. Furthermore, the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry index (AI) are calculated and studied respectively, which all depends on local time, latitude and longitude. The notable differences occur at higher latitudes in solar minimum year of 2009 with those in 2005–2008. The equinoctial AI at LT 2230 is quite consistent with the variational trend of solar flux with the lowest absolute AI occurring in 2009, the extreme solar minimum, but the solstitial AI exhibits abnormal enhancement during 2008 and 2009 with bigger AI than those in 2005–2007. Compared with the neutral compositions at 500 km altitude, it illustrates that [O/N₂] and [O] play some roles in daytime and nighttime asymmetry of Ne at topside ionosphere.     

Response of the EIA ionosphere to the 7-8 May 2005 geomagnetic storm

In this paper, response of low latitude ionosphere to a moderate geomagnetic storm of 7–8 May 2005 (SSC: 1920 UT on 7 May with Sym-H minimum, ∼−112 nT around 1600 UT on 8 May) has been investigated using the GPS measurements from a near EIA crest region, Rajkot (Geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E, Geomag.14°), India. We found a decrease in total electron content (TEC) in 12 h after the onset of the storm, an increase during and after 6 h of Sym-H deep minimum with a decrease below its usual-day level on the second day during the recovery phase of the storm. On 8 May, an increase of TEC is observed after sunset and during post-midnight hours (maximum up to 170%) with the formation of ionospheric plasma bubbles followed by a nearly simultaneous onset of scintillations at L-band frequencies following the time of rapid decrease in Sym-H index (−30 nT/h around 1300 UT).     

Comparison of mesopause region meteor radar winds,medium frequency radar winds and low frequency drifts over Germany

During 2004 and 2005 measurements of mesospheric/lower thermospheric (80–100 km) winds have been carried out in Germany using three different ground-based systems, namely a meteor radar (36.2 MHz) at the Collm Observatory (51.3°N, 13°E), a MF radar (3.18 MHz) at Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E) and the LF D1 measurements using a transmitter (177 kHz) at Zehlendorf near Berlin and receivers at Collm with the reflection point at 52.1°N, 13.2°E. This provides the possibility of comparing the results of different radar systems in nearly the same measuring volume. Meteor radar winds are generally stronger than the winds observed by MF and especially by LF radars. This difference is small near 80 km but increases with height. The difference between meteor radar and medium frequency radar winds is larger during winter than during summer, which might indicate an indirect influence of gravity waves on spaced antenna measurements.     

Some peculiarities of longitudinal distribution of proton fluxes at high latitudes

Dynamical features of proton fluxes at high and middle latitudes were studied based on data measured by Sun-synchronous low-altitude (800 km height) polar-orbiting three NOAA series satellites: POES 15, 16, and 17 during the geomagnetic storm on January, 21–22, 2005. Data from three satellites that passed the Northern hemisphere along different MLTs allow reconstructing the longitudinal distribution of the proton fluxes. Measurements of protons with energies of 30–80 keV and 80–240 keV (the ring current energy range) by 0- and 90-detectors were used to evaluate and compare the longitudinal asymmetry of proton flux distribution measured in the regions equatorward and poleward of the isotropic boundary. It was found that during all the phases of the geomagnetic storm distribution of the maximum flux of precipitating protons (0-detector data) is sufficiently asymmetric. The maximal flux position along MLT is moving from pre-midnight sector in quiet time to post-midnight one before and during SSC and moving back during recovery phase. The longitudinal distribution of precipitation maxima demonstrates the local increase in afternoon sector (approximately at 13:30 MLT) and decrease in the dusk one during SSC. These features are evident consequence of the magnetosphere compression. To identify the origin of the particles, the locations of maximum fluxes have been projected to the magnetosphere. It was determined that during geomagnetic storm main and recovery phases maximum fluxes were measured at latitudes poleward of the isotropic boundary. To evaluate the trapped particle flux asymmetry, the particle fluences (90-detector data) were calculated along the satellite orbit from L = 2 to the isotropic boundary. The total fluences of trapped particles calculated along the satellite orbit show regular asymmetry between dusk and dawn during main and recovery phases. The maximal intensity of proton fluxes of both investigated populations located poleward and equatorward of the isotropic boundary is achieved during SSC. The total flux measured during crossing the anisotropic region can be considered as a proxy for ring current injection rate.     

Group dynamics in a long-term blind endeavor on Earth: An analog for space missions (Lewis & Clark Expedition group dynamic analysis)

In 1803, President Thomas Jefferson set fourth a military expedition led by Captains M. Lewis and W. Clark (Lewis and Clark Expedition) on an exploration that would become an everlasting part of US national history and pride. Looking back at the events of this exploration, there are many similarities to the experiences future human space explorers will face as we look to colonize the Moon and travel to Mars and beyond (NASA Vision for Space Exploration, 2004):

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The Lewis and Clark Expedition lasted almost three years and involved a crew of 43 men traveling up the Missouri River to explore the unknown lands and a possible water route to the Pacific Ocean;     

Reports to COSPAR from the International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG)

In accordance with its charter, the International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) reports to COSPAR, and a summary was given at the Beijing COSPAR 2006 Assembly on ILEWG activities conducted since the previous COSPAR 2004 assembly held in Paris. This included reports from the 6th and 7th ILEWG International Conference on Exploration and Utilization of the Moon, held respectively in Udaipur, India on 22–26 November 2004 (ICEUM6) and in Toronto, Canada on 18–23 September 2005 (ICEUM7). We give in this issue of Advances in Space Research the “lunar declarations” from these ICEUM conferences, as well as for the ICEUM8 conference held in Beijing immediately after the 2006 COSPAR Assembly. One year after the COSPAR Beijing assembly, the 9th ILEWG International Conference on Exploration and Utilization of the Moon (ICEUM9), was held in Sorrento, Italy on 18–23 September 2007. We report also in this issue the “Sorrento Lunar Declaration” in advance of the ILEWG formal report to be given at the COSPAR Assembly to be held in Montreal, Canada in July 2008.     

Study of daytime vertical E × B drift velocities inferred from ground-based magnetometer observations of ΔH,at low latitudes under geomagnetically disturbed conditions

In this study, 30 storm sudden commencement (SSC) events during the period 2001–2007 for which daytime vertical E × B drift velocities from JULIA radar, Jicamarca (geographic latitude 11.91°S, geographic longitude 283.11°E, 0.81°N dip latitude), Peru and ΔH component of geomagnetic field measured as the difference between the magnitudes of the horizontal (H) components between two magnetometers deployed at two different locations Jicamarca (geographic latitude 11.91°S, geographic longitude 283.11°E, 0.81°N dip latitude) and Piura (geographic latitude 5.21°S, geographic longitude 279.41°E, 6.81°N dip latitude), in Peru, were considered. It is observed that a positive correlation exists between peak value of daytime vertical E × B drift velocity and peak value of ΔH for the three consecutive days of SSC. A qualitative analysis made after selecting the peak values of daytime vertical E × B drift velocity and ΔH showed that 57% of the events have daytime vertical E × B drift velocity peak in the magnitude range 20–30 m/s and 63% of the events have ΔH peak in the range 80–100 nT. The maximum probable (45%) range of time of occurrence of peak value for both vertical E × B drift velocity and ΔH during the daytime hours were found to be the same, i.e., 10:00–12:00 LT. A strong positive correlation was also found to exist between the daytime vertical E × B drift velocity and ΔH for all the three consecutive days of SSC, for all the events considered. To establish a quantitative relationship between day time vertical E × B drift velocity and ΔH, linear and polynomial (order 2 and 3) regression analysis (Least Square Method (LSM)) were carried out, considering the fully disturbed day after the commencement of the storm as ‘disturbed period’ for the SSC events selected for analysis. The formulae indicating the relationship between daytime vertical E × B drift velocity and ΔH, for the ‘disturbed periods’, obtained through the regression analysis were verified using the JULIA radar observed E × B drift velocity for 3 selected events. Root Mean Square (RMS) error analysis carried out for each case suggest that polynomial regression (order 3) analysis provides a better agreement with the observations from among the linear, polynomial (order 2 and 3) analysis.     

Possible physical properties of the flow in the vicinity of the heliopause

An interface between the fully ionized hydrogen plasma of the solar wind (SW) and the partially ionized hydrogen gas flow of the local interstellar medium (LISM) is formed as a region where there is a strong interaction between these two flows. The interface is bounded by the solar wind termination shock (TS) and the LISM bow shock (BS) and is separated on two regions by the heliopause (HP) separating the solar wind and charged component of the LISM (plasma component below). The BS is formed due to the deceleration of the supersonic LISM flow relative to the solar system. Regions of the interface between the TS and HP and between the HP and BS were in literature named as the inner and outer heliosheaths, respectively. An investigation of the structure and physical properties of the heliosheath is at present especially interested due to the fact that Voyager-1 and Voyager-2 have crossed the TS in December 2004 (Burlaga, L.F., Ness, N.F., Acuna, M.Y., et al. Crossing the termination shock into the the heliosheath. Magnetic fields. Science 309, 2027–2029, 2005; Fisk, L.A. Journey into the unknown beyond. Science 309, 2016–2017, 2005; Decker, R.B., Krimigis, S.M., Roelof, E.C., et al. Voyager 1 in the foreshock, termination shock and heliosheath. Science 309, 2020–2024, 2005; Stone, E.C., Cummings, A.C., McDonald, F.B., et al. Voyager 1 explores the termination shock region and the heliosheath beyond. Science 309, 2017–2020, 2005) and in September 2007 (Jokipii, J.R. A shock for Voyager 2. Nature 454, 38–39, 2008; Gurnett, D.A., Kurth, W.S. Intense plasma waves at and near the solar wind termination shock. Nature 454, 78–80, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07023; Wang, L., Lin, R.P., Larson, D.E., Luhmann, J.G. Domination of heliosheath pressure by shock-accelerated pickup ions from observations of neutral atoms. Nature 454, 81–83, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07068.14; Burlaga, L.F., Ness, N.F., Acuna, M.H., et al. Magnetic fields at the solar wind termination shock. Nature 454, 75–77, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07029; Richardson, J.D., Kasper, J.C., Wang, C., et al. Cool heliosheath plasma and deceleration of the upstream solar wind at the termination shock. Nature 454, 63–66, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07024; Stone, E.C., Cummings, A.C., McDonald, F.B., et al. An asymmetric solar wind termination shock. Nature 454, 71–74, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature07022; Decker, R.B., Krimigis, S.M., Roelof, E.C., et al. Mediation of the solar wind termination shock by non-thermal ions. Nature 454, 67–70, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature 07030), respectively, and entered to the inner heliosheath.     

Energetic neutral atom (ENA) and charged particle periodicities in Saturn’s magnetosphere

The Magnetospheric Imaging Instrument (MIMI) on the Cassini spacecraft has observed energetic neutral atoms (ENA) and charged particles at Saturn from mid-2004 to the present. The particles often but not always reveal striking periodic behavior that seems to depend on the type of particle and spacecraft location. When subjected to a Lomb periodogram analysis, energetic electrons (>150 keV) exhibited strong frequency peaks near 10.80 h (the nominal or “base” period of Saturn kilometric radiation) during 2006–2008, but essentially no periodicity during 2005. The electron periodograms also show pronounced “double” frequency peaks in 2007 and 2008. Energetic protons (3–26 keV) show strong peaks near the same period for 2005–2007, but none for 2008. Oxygen ions at the same energies display strong peaks for 2005 and 2006, but not for 2007 and 2008. By projecting the ENA images onto Saturn’s equatorial plane or onto a plane perpendicular to the equatorial plane and then summing the data in the appropriate dimension, “strip” images can be constructed from which a time history can be derived. These time histories of ENA emissions are also subjected to a Lomb periodogram analyses. The energetic hydrogen neutrals (20–50 keV) exhibited periodic behavior only during 2007, while energetic oxygen neutrals (64–144 keV) displayed a strong SKR-like period in 2005 and 2006 but not for 2007 or 2008. Some of this behavior may be due to changing spacecraft aspect relative to the ENA emissions, and some of it may be real. This periodic behavior may be consistent with a rotating anomaly that “flashes” brightly in the midnight-to-dawn sector once per 10.8 h, with the flash parameters depending on particle species and energy.     

Systematic examination of the geomagnetic storm sudden commencement using multi resolution analysis

Geomagnetic storm sudden commencements (SSC) contain a wealth of information which is useful in many applications. It is important to point out that the SSCs used in this study are sampled at the rate of one sample per second in order get use of such high resolution data. In this paper, two studies are made on the geomagnetic SSC and an SSC onset automatic detection algorithm is introduced. The first study is about finding the relationship between the SSC rise time and its amplitude. Where it is found that there is a positive correlation between the amplitude and the amplitude gradient which is the amplitude divided by rise time. The second study is checking the spectrum of the SSC, starting from its onset until the end of the SSC rise time. This check had proved that the SSC contains both low and high frequency regions. This led us to introduce a new term, namely the SSC variation rate (VR). This VR is defined as the maximum rate of change of the field in the higher-frequency region of the SSC. These two studies were the guide to build an SSC automatic detector of one sample per second data using multi resolution analysis (MRA) of the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The data set contains 134 SSCs with different VRs that were collected from the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN). It is found that the standard deviation of the detection error is 41 s and that the average error is 9 s. From the calculated error distribution function, it is found that the detection error is within the range of −1.5 to 3 min. The detection process, as will be shown in the article, takes 70 s for one station and 3 min if the decision is related to the detection(s) of other stations. These results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm over other algorithms in which the detection error ranges between −8 and 5 min and the detection process takes 2–10 min. In addition to being faster and more accurate than the other algorithms, the proposed algorithm is the first algorithm that automatically detects the SSC onset times from high-resolution data unlike previous studies that focused on determining the SSC times automatically using one-minute resolution data.     

比斯开湾上空电子总量对磁暴的响应

本文论述过去十年中,在英国Aberystwyth城观测同步卫星Intelsat IIF2和SIRIO信标时获得的大西洋比斯开湾上空电子总量对磁暴的响应。所选择的地磁-电离层暴分属前后两个太阳活动较高周期,主要集中在春秋分阶段和冬夏至阶段。文中指出,春分期间连续型磁暴使TEC在正相效应之后出现加长的凋落周期,集中型磁暴导致TEC在正相之后产生凋落周期缩短;春秋分和冬夏至时磁暴伴生的电子总量形态受制于急始时刻与次数、磁暴主相、磁暴指数(即暴时位置和暴情指数)等因素。      

Investigation of precursory phenomena in the ionosphere,atmosphere and groundwater before large earthquakes of M > 6.5

Precursory phenomena in the ionosphere, atmosphere and groundwater before large earthquakes (M > 6.5) are extensively investigated toward the earthquake prediction. Upward tornado type seismic clouds occurred near the epicenter associated with strong LF-VLF radio noises from lightning discharges in the evening of January 9, 1995 [Yamada, T., Oike, K. On the increase of electromagnetic noises before and after the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu earthquake. In: Hayakawa M. (Ed.), Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes. TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 417–427, 1999] and anomalous foEs increases up to 10 MHz were detected at Shigaraki, 90 km of the epicenter and at Kokubunji, 500 km east of the epicenter [Ondoh, T. Anomalous sporadic-E layers observed before M7.2 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake; Terrestrial gas emanation model. Adv. Polar Upper Atmos. Res. 17, 96–108, 2003; Ondoh, T. Anomalous sporadic-E ionization before a great earthquake, Adv. Space Research 34, 1830–1835, 2004] associated with strong ELF noises from lightning discharges in the daytime on January 15, 1995 [Hata, M., Fujii, T., Takumi, I. EM precursor of large-scale earthquakes in Japan, in: Abstracts of International Workshop on Seismo Electromagnetics (IWSE 2005), Univ. Electro-Communications, Chofu, Tokyo, Japan, March 15–17, pp. 182–186, 2005] before the M7.2 Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake of January 17, 1995. The anomalous foEs increases occurred at epicentral distances within 500 km that are the same as those of the terrestrial gas emanations along active faults before large earthquakes [King, C.-Y. Gas geochemistry applied to earthquake prediction: An overview. J. Geophys. Res. 91(B12), 12269–12281, 1986]. The anomalous foEs increases seem to be a seismic precursor because geomagnetic and solar conditions were very quiet all day on January 15,1995 and the normal foEs in Japanese winter is below 6 MHz. No significant pre-seismic geomagnetic field variation was detected at epicentral distance of 100 km before this earthquake [Ondoh, T., Hayakawa, M. Anomalous occurrence of sporadic-E layers before the Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake, M7.2 of January 17, 1995. In: Hayakawa, M. (Ed.), Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes, TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 629–639, 1999; Ondoh, T., Hayakawa, M. Seismo discharge model of anomalous sporadic E ionization before great earthquakes. In: Hayakawa, M., O.A. Molchanov, (Eds.), Seismo Electromagnetics: Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Couplings, TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 385–390, 2002; Ondoh. T., Hayakawa, M. Synthetic study of precursory phenomena of the M7.2 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. Phys. Chem. Earth 31, 378–388, 2006]. The foF2 decrease and h’F increase occurred before the M7.8 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake of July 12,1993 in a geomagnetic quiet period [Ondoh, T. Ionospheric disturbances associated with great earthquake of Hokkaido southwest coast, Japan of July 12, 1993. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors. 105, 261–269, 1998; Ondoh, T. Seismo ionospheric phenomena. Adv. Space Res. 26, 8, 1267–1272, 2000]. Characteristic phase changes at terminator times of Omega 10.2 kHz waves passing 70 km of the epicenter extended toward darker local times by 1 h for 3 days before this earthquake due to lowering of the wave reflection height or ion density increases in the D region [Hayakawa, M., Molchanov, O. A., Ondoh, T., Kawai, E. The precursory signature effect of the Kobe earthquake on VLF subionospheric signals. J. Commun. Res. La., 43, 00. 169–180, 1996]. The radon concentration in the atmosphere over Ashiya fault, Kobe [Yasuoka, Y., Shinogi, M. Anomaly in atmospheric radon concentration: a possible precursor of the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake. Health Phys. 72(5), 759–761, 1997] and in the groundwater at 17 m well in Nishinomiya, Japan [Igarashi, G., Saeki, S., Takahata, N., Sumikawa, K., Tasaki, S., Sasaki, Y., Takahashi, M., Sano, Y. Ground-water radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake in Japan. Science 269, 60–61, 1995] had gradually increased since 2 months before the M7.2 earthquake, increased suddenly in December 1994, and rapidly returned to the normal low level of October, 1994 [Yasuoka, Y., Shinogi, M. 1997. Anomaly in atmospheric radon concentration: a possible precursor of the 1995 Kobe. Japan, earthquake. Health Phys. 72(5), 759–761.]. Radon concentration changes in the groundwater before the M 7.0 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake, Japan on January 14, 1978 [Wakita, H., Nakamura, Y., Notsu, K., Noguchi, M., Asada, T. 1980. Radon anomaly: a possible precursor of the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake. Science 207, 882–883] and the M6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan on December 10, 2003 [Kuo, T., Fan, K., Chen, W., Kuochen, H., Han, Y., Wang, C., Chang, T., Lee, Y. Radon anomaly at the Antung Hot Spring before the Taiwan M6.8 Chengkung earthquake. Proceedings, Thirty-First Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, January 30–February 1, 2006, SGP-TR-179, 2006] are also investigated to find common features of the groundwater radon concentration changes before large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in comparison with those before the M7.2 Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake. Groundwater radon concentrations before the 3 large earthquakes had shown common characteristic changes of gradually initial ones from the normal level since about 2 months before the earthquake onsets, rapid decreases down to the minimum, and quick increases up to the maximum at 7–20 days before the earthquake onsets, respectively. These are very useful characteristics of pre-seismic radon anomaly for the earthquake prediction or warning. Promising observations toward the earthquake prediction are also discussed.