IRI 2001/90 TEC predictions over a low latitude station

Total electron content (TEC) over Tucumán (26.9°S, 294.6°W) measured with Faraday technique during the high solar activity year 1982, is used to check IRI 2001 TEC predictions at the southern crest of the equatorial anomaly region. Comparisons with IRI 90 are also made. The results show that in general IRI overestimates TEC values around the daily minimum and underestimates it the remaining hours. Better predictions are obtained using ground ionosonde measurements as input coefficients in the IRI model. The results suggest that for hours of maximum TEC values the electron density profile is broader than that assumed by the model. The main reason for the disagreement would be the IRI shape of the electron density profile.     

A study of L band scintillations during the initial phase of rising solar activity at an Indian low latitude station

The ionospheric scintillation and TEC (Total Electron Content) variations are studied using GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements at an Indian low latitude station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E; Geomagnetic: 12.90°N, 147.35°E), situated near the northern crest of the equatorial anomaly region. The results are presented for data collected during the initial phase of current rising solar activity (low to moderate solar activity) period between January 2009 and December 2011. The results show that within a total number of 656 night-time scintillation events, 340 events are observed with TEC depletions, Rate of change of TEC (ROT) fluctuations and enhancement of Rate of change of TEC Index (ROTI). A comparison of night-time scintillation events from the considered period reveal strong correlation amongst the duration of scintillation activity in S₄ index_, TEC depletion, ROT fluctuations and ROTI enhancement in the year 2011, followed by the year 2010 and least in 2009. The statistical analyses of scintillation activity with enhancement of ROTI also show that about 70–96% scintillation activity took place in equinox and winter months. Moreover, from a nocturnal variation in occurrence of scintillation with (S₄ ? 0.2) and enhancement of ROTI with (ROTI ? 0.5), a general trend of higher occurrence in pre-midnight hours of equinox and winter seasons is observed in both indices during the year 2011 and 2010, while no significant trend is observed in the year 2009. The results suggest the presence of F-region ionospheric irregularities with scale sizes of few kilometers and few hundred meters over Surat and are found to be influenced by solar and magnetic activity.     

Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) and comparison with IRI model during descending phase of solar activity (2005–2009)

The ionospheric variability at equatorial and low latitude region is known to be extreme as compared to mid latitude region. In this study the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), is derived by analyzing dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded at two stations separated by 325 km near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (Geog latitude 25°, 16^/ N, longitude 82°, 59^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 16°, 08^/ N) and Kanpur (Geog latitude 26°, 18^/ N, longitude 80°, 12^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 17°, 18^/ N). Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the descending phase of solar activity from 2005 to 2009. It is found that the maximum TEC (EIA) near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semi-annual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Results also showed the presence of winter anomaly or seasonal anomaly in the EIA crest throughout the period 2005–2009 only except during the deep solar minimum year 2007–2008. The correlation analysis indicate that the variation of EIA crest is more affected by solar activity compared to geomagnetic activity with maximum dependence on the solar EUV flux, which is attributed to direct link of EUV flux on the formation of ionosphere and main agent of the ionization. The statistical mean occurrence of EIA crest in TEC during the year from 2005 to 2009 is found to around 12:54 LT hour and at 21.12° N geographic latitude. The crest of EIA shifts towards lower latitudes and the rate of shift of the crest latitude during this period is found to be 0.87° N/per year. The comparison between IRI models with observation during this period has been made and comparison is poor with increasing solar activity with maximum difference during the year 2005.     

TEC variability near northern EIA crest and comparison with IRI model

Monthly median values of hourly total electron content (TEC) is obtained with GPS at a station near northern anomaly crest, Rajkot (geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E; geomag. 14.21°N, 144.9°E) to study the variability of low latitude ionospheric behavior during low solar activity period (April 2005 to March 2006). The TEC exhibit characteristic features like day-to-day variability, semiannual anomaly and noon bite out. The observed TEC is compared with latest International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) – 2007 model using options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI-2001 by using both URSI and CCIR coefficients. A good agreement of observed and predicted TEC is found during the daytime with underestimation at other times. The predicted TEC by NeQuick and IRI01-corr is closer to the observed TEC during the daytime whereas during nighttime and morning hours, IRI-2001 shows lesser discrepancy in all seasons by both URSI and CCIR coefficients.     

An evaluation of the IRI-2007 storm time model at low latitude stations

This paper discusses the ability of the International Reference Ionosphere IRI-2007 storm time model to predict foF2 ionospheric parameter during geomagnetic storm periods. Experimental data (based on availability) from two low latitude stations: Vanimo (geographic coordinates, 2.7 °S, 141.3 °E, magnetic coordinates, 12.3 °S, 212.50 °E) and Darwin (geographic coordinates, 12.45 °S, 130.95 °E, magnetic coordinates, 22.9 °S, 202.7 °E) during nine storms that occurred in 2000 (Rz₁₂ = 119), 2001(Rz₁₂ = 111) and 2003 (Rz₁₂ = 64) are compared with those obtained by the IRI-2007 storm model. The results obtained show that the percentage deviation between the experimental and IRI predicted foF2 values during these storm periods is as high as 100% during the main and recovery phases. Based on the values of “relative deviation module mean” (RDMM) obtained (i.e. between 0.08 and 0.60), it is observed that there is a reasonable to poor agreement between measured foF2 values and the IRI-storm model prediction values during main and recovery phases of the storms under investigation. As a result, in addition to other studies that have been carried out from different sectors, more studies are required to be carried out. This will enable IRI community to improve on the present performance of the model. In general the IRI-storm model predictions follow normal trend of the foF2 measured values but does not reproduce well the measured values.     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004

The periodic variation of TEC data at Xiamen station (geographic coordinate: 24.4°N, 118.1°E; geomagnetic coordinate: 13.2°N, 187.4°E) at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004 is analyzed. The characteristic of TEC association with solar activity and geomagnetic activity are also analyzed. The method of continuous wavelet, cross wavelet and wavelet coherence transform methods have been used. Analysis results show that long-term variations of TEC at Xiamen station are mainly controlled by the variations of solar activities. Several remarkable components including 128–256 days, 256–512 days and 512–1024 days exist in TEC variations. The TEC data at Xiamen station is in anti-phase with geomagnetic Dst index in semiannual time-scale, but this response only exists during high solar activity. Diurnal variation of TEC is studied for different seasons. Some features like the semiannual anomaly and winter anomaly in TEC have been reported.     

Validation of B0 and B1 in the IRI 2001 model at low solar activity for Ilorin an equatorial station

A new set of data obtained at low solar activity from Ilorin, Nigeria (geog. latitude 8.5°N, geog longitude, 4.6°E, dip 4.1°S) is used to validate the IRI 2001 model at low solar activity. The results show in general a good agreement between model and observed B0 at night but an over estimation during daytime. The overestimation is greatest during the morning period (0600LT–1000LT). The model prediction for B1 is fairly good at night and during the day. A dependence of B0 on solar zenith angle χ is observed during the daytime. A formulation of the form B0 = A[cos(χ)ⁿ] is therefore proposed. Values of the constants n and A were determined for the period of low solar activity for this station.     

Monthly mean foF2 model for an African low-latitude station and comparison with IRI

We have employed the hourly values of the ionospheric F-region critical frequency (foF2) obtained from Ouagadougou ionosonde, Burkina Faso (geographic coordinates 12° N, 1.8° W) during the interval of 1985–1995 (solar cycle 22) and solar radio flux of 10 cm wavelength (F10.7) to develop a local model (LM) for the African low-latitude station. The model was developed from regression analysis method, using the two-segmented regression analysis. We validated LM with foF2 data from Korhogo observatory, Cote d’Ivorie (geographical coordinates 9.3° N, 5.4° W). LM as well as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) agrees well with observations. LM gave some improvement on the IRI-predicted foF2 values at the sunrise (06 LT) at all solar flux levels and in all seasons except June solstice. The performance of the models at the representing the salient features of the equatorial foF2 was presented. Considering daytime and nighttime performances, LM and IRI are comparable in low solar activity (LSA), LM performed better than IRI in moderate solar activity (MSA), while IRI performed better than LM in high solar activity (HSA). CCIR has a root mean square error (r.m.s.e), which is only 0.10 MHz lower than that of LM while LM has r.m.s.e, which is about 0.05 MHz lower than that of URSI. In general, our result shows that performance of IRI, especially the CCIR option of the IRI, is quite comparable with the LM. The improved performance of IRI is a reflection of the numerous contributions of ionospheric physicists in the African region, larger volume of data for the IRI and the diversity of data sources, as well as the successes of the IRI task force activities.     

Comparison of observed TEC values with IRI-2007 TEC and IRI-2007 TEC with optional foF2 measurements predictions at an equatorial region,Chumphon, Thailand

In this research, as part of working towards improving the IRI over equatorial region, the total electron content (TEC) derived from GPS measurements and IRI-2007 TEC predictions at Chumphon station (10.72°N, 99.37°E), Thailand, during 2004–2006 is analyzed. The seasonal variation of the IRI-2007 TEC predictions is compared with the TEC from the IRI-2007 TEC model with the option of the actual F2 plasma frequency (foF2) measurements as well as the TEC from the GPS and International GNSS service (IGS). The Chumphon station is located at the equatorial region and the low latitude of 3.22°N. For a declining phase of the solar cycle (2004–2006), the study shows that the IRI-2007 TEC underestimates the IRI-2007 TEC with the foF2 observation at the nighttime by about 5 TECU. The maximum differences are about 15 TECU during daytime and 5 TECU during nighttime. The overestimation is more evident at daytime than at nighttime. When compared in terms of the root-mean square error (RMSE), we find that the highest RMSE between GPS TEC and IRI 2007 TEC is 14.840 TECU at 1230 LT in 2004 and the lowest average between them is 1.318 TECU at 0630 LT in 2006. The noon bite-out phenomena are clearly seen in the IRI-2007 TEC with and without optional foF2 measurements, but not on the GPS TEC and IGS TEC. The IRI TEC with optional foF2 measurements gives the lowest RMSE values between IRI TEC predicted and TEC measurement. However, the TEC measurements (GPS TEC and IGS TEC) are more correct to use at Chumphon station.     

Comparing TOPEX TEC measurements with IRI predictions

TEC values obtained from TOPEX satellite were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2001 model estimates. The present work also shows results of the IRI model with the option of a new topside electron density distribution (NeQuick model). TOPEX TEC measurements, which include years of high and middle to low solar activity (2000 and 2004), were analyzed by binning the region covered by the satellite (±66°) every five degrees of modip. In general, there is good agreement between IRI predictions and Topex measurements. Cases with large disagreements are observed at low and high latitudes during high solar activity. Comparing the model predictions using the default IRI2001 model and the NeQuick topside option show that the default IRI 2001 version represents the observed data in a more realistic way, but appears to be less reliable at high and low latitudes in some cases.     

Validation of the Neustrelitz Global Model according to the low latitude ionosphere

Empirical modeling including empirical model for the total electron content (TEC) is important for the study of the ionosphere and practical applications. In this paper goodness of new Neustrelitz Global Model (then NGM) at low latitudes is studied. The NGM model includes such parameters as the maximal electron density (NmF2) and altitude of the maximum (hmF2). As of today, besides NGM there are several empirical models for NmF2 and hmF2. Therefore, a comparison of these parameters of the NGM model, not only with the experimental data, but also with two versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (the IRI model): IRI2001 and IRI-Plas would be instructive. Because the NGM model incorporates special factor describing the equatorial anomaly, the comparison in lower latitude areas is particularly interesting. As one can see from the presented example of the data from low latitude stations located in the northern and southern hemispheres near the Greenwich meridian, the NGM model may have certain advantages over the IRI model versions. In particular, NGM TEC is preferable regardless of solar activity level while NGM NmF2 is only preferable under high solar activity conditions. Next, NGM equivalent slab thickness of the ionosphere: τ(NGM) = TEC(NGM)/NmF2(NGM) has been calculated and tested to answer the question whether τ(NGM) can be used as a proxy of the slab thickness of the ionosphere for an empirical modeling. The answer is positive for the near equatorial stations and periods of high solar activity, and under such conditions predicted τ(NGM) can be used for deriving NmF2 from the experimental values of TEC(CODE) in real time.     

Comparison of ionospheric F2 peak parameters foF2 and hmF2 with IRI2001 at Hainan

Monthly median values of foF2, hmF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters, with quarter-hourly time interval resolution for the diurnal variation, obtained with DPS4 digisonde at Hainan (19.5°N, 109.1°E; Geomagnetic coordinates: 178.95°E, 8.1°N) are used to investigate the low-latitude ionospheric variations and comparisons with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predictions. The data used for the present study covers the period from February 2002 to April 2007, which is characterized by a wide range of solar activity, ranging from high solar activity (2002) to low solar activity (2007). The results show that (1) Generally, IRI predictions follow well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the experimental values of foF2, especially in the summer of 2002. However, there are systematic deviation between experimental values and IRI predictions with either CCIR or URSI coefficients. Generally IRI model greatly underestimate the values of foF2 from about noon to sunrise of next day, especially in the afternoon, and slightly overestimate them from sunrise to about noon. It seems that there are bigger deviations between IRI Model predictions and the experimental observations for the moderate solar activity. (2) Generally the IRI-predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(3000)F2 option shows a poor agreement with the experimental results, but there is a relatively good agreement in summer at low solar activity. The deviation between the IRI-predicted hmF2 using CCIR M(3000)F2 and observed hmF2 is bigger from noon to sunset and around sunrise especially at high solar activity. The occurrence time of hmF2 peak (about 1200 LT) of the IRI model predictions is earlier than that of observations (around 1500 LT). The agreement between the IRI hmF2 obtained with the measured M(3000)F2 and the observed hmF2 is very good except that IRI overestimates slightly hmF2 in the daytime in summer at high solar activity and underestimates it in the nighttime with lower values near sunrise at low solar activity.     

Time series modeling and analysis of trends of daily averaged ionospheric total electron content

A 10.7 cm solar radio flux F10.7, geomagnetic planetary equivalent amplitude (Ap index), and period variations were considered in this paper to construct a linear model for daily averaged ionospheric total electron content (TEC). The correlation coefficient of the modeled results and International GNSS Service (IGS) observables was approximately 0.97, which implied that the model could accurately reflect the realistic variation characteristics of the daily averaged TEC. The influences of the different factors on TEC and its characteristics at different latitudes were examined with this model. Results show that solar activity, annual and semiannual cycles are the three most important factors that affect daily averaged TEC. Solar activity is the primary determinant of TEC during periods with high solar activity, whereas periodic factors primarily contribute to TEC during periods with minimum solar activity. The extent of the influences of the different factors on TEC exhibits obvious differences at varying latitudes. The magnitude of the semiannual variation becomes less significant with the increase in latitude. Furthermore, a geomagnetic storm causes an increase in TEC at low latitudes and a decrease at high latitudes.     

A morphological study of GPS-TEC data at Agra and their comparison with the IRI model

The temporal and seasonal variations of Total Electron Content (TEC) are studied at Agra (Geographic Lat. 27.17°N, Long. 78.89°E, Dip: 41.4°), India, which is in the equatorial anomaly region, for a period of 12 months from 01 January to 31 December, 2007 using a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. The mean TEC values show a minimum at 0500 h LT (LT = UT + 5.5 h) and a peak value at about 1400 h LT. The lowest TEC values are observed in winter whereas largest values are observed in equinox and summer. Anomalous variations are found during the period of magnetic disturbances. These results are compared with the TEC derived from IRI-2007 using three different options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr, and IRI-2001. A good agreement is found between the TEC obtained at Agra and those derived from IRI models.     

Day-to-day variability of equatorial anomaly in GPS-TEC during low solar activity period

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in the northern hemispheric equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region is investigated by using dual-frequency signals of the Global Positioning System (GPS) acquired from Rajkot (Geog. Lat. 22.29°N, Geog. Long. 70.74°E; Geom. Lat. 14.21°N, Geom. Long. 144.90°E), India. The day-to-day variability of EIA characteristics is examined during low solar activity period (F10.7∼83 sfu). It is found that the daily maximum TEC at EIA crest exhibits a day-to-day and strong semi-annual variability. The seasonal anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry in TEC at EIA is found non-existent and weaker, respectively. We found a moderate and positive correlation of daily magnitude of crest, Ic with daily F10.7 and EUV fluxes with a correlation coefficient of 0.43 and 0.33, respectively indicating an existence of a short-term relation between TEC at EIA and the solar radiation even during low solar activity period. The correlation of daily Ic with Dst index is also moderate (r = −0.35), whereas no correlation is found with the daily Kp index (r = 0.14) respectively. We found that the magnitude of EIA crest is moderately correlated with solar flux in all seasons except winter where it is weakly related (0.27). The magnitude of EIA crest is also found highly related with EEJ strength in spring (r = 0.69) and summer (r = 0.65) than autumn (0.5) and winter (r = 0.47), though EEJ is stronger in autumn than spring.     

Behavior of the equivalent slab thickness over three European stations

The total electron content (TEC) derived from the global positioning system (GPS) and the F2-layer peak electron density obtained from Digisonde data have been used to study the diurnal, seasonal and solar activity variations of the ionospheric equivalent slab thickness (τ) over three European stations located at Pruhonice (50.0°N, 15.0°E), Ebro (40.8°N, 0.5°E) and El Arenosillo (37.1°N, 353.3°E). The diurnal variation of the τ is characterized by daytime values lower than nighttime ones for all seasons at low solar activity while daytime values larger than nighttime characterizes the diurnal variation for summer at high solar activity. A double peak is noticeable at dusk and at dawn, better expressed for winter at low solar activity. The seasonal variations of τ depend on local time and solar activity, the daytime values of τ increases from winter to summer whereas nighttime values of τ show the opposite. The effect of the solar activity on τ depends on local time and season, there being very sensitive for winter nighttime values of τ. The results of this study are compared with those presented by other authors.     

TEC derived from some GPS stations in Nigeria and comparison with the IRI and NeQuick models

Total electron content (TEC) measured simultaneously using Global Positioning System (GPS) ionospheric monitors installed at some locations in Nigeria during the year 2011 (Rz = 55.7) was used to study the diurnal, seasonal, and annual TEC variations. The TEC exhibits daytime maximum, seasonal variation and semiannual variations. Measured TEC were compared with those predicted by the improved versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and NeQuick models. The models followed the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed values of TEC. However, IRI model produced better estimates of TEC than NeQuick at all locations.     

GPS derived TEC and foF2 variability at an equatorial station and the performance of IRI-model

The ionosphere induces a time delay in transionospheric radio signals such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal. The Total Electron Content (TEC) is a key parameter in the mitigation of ionospheric effects on transionospheric signals. The delay in GPS signal induced by the ionosphere is proportional to TEC along the path from the GPS satellite to a receiver. The diurnal monthly and seasonal variations of ionospheric electron content were studied during the year 2010, a year of extreme solar minimum (F10.7 = 81 solar flux unit), with data from the GPS receiver and the Digisonde Portable Sounder (DPS) collocated at Ilorin (Geog. Lat. 8.50°N, Long. 4.50°E, dip −7.9°). The diurnal monthly variation shows steady increases in TEC and F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) from pre-dawn minimum to afternoon maximum and then decreases after sunset. TEC show significant seasonal variation during the daytime between 0900 and 1900 UT (LT = UT + 1 h) with a maximum during the March equinox (about 35 TECU) and minimum during the June solstice (about 24 TECU). The GPS-TEC and foF2 values reveal a weak seasonal anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry during the daytime. The variations observed find their explanations in the amount of solar radiation and neutral gas composition. The measured TEC and foF2 values were compared with last two versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007 and IRI-2012) model predictions using the NeQuick and CCIR (International Radio Consultative Committee) options respectively in the model. In general, the two models give foF2 close to the experimental values, whereas significant discrepancies are found in the predictions of TEC from the models especially during the daytime. The error in height dependent thickness parameter, daytime underestimation of equatorial drift and contributions of electrons from altitudes above 2000 km have been suggested as the possible causes.     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content in Indian low latitude region of the equatorial anomaly during May 2007–April 2008

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC), derived by analyzing dual frequency signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) recorded near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (geomagnetic latitude 14°, 55′N, geomagnetic longitude 154°E) is studied. Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the solar minimum period from May 2007 to April 2008. It is found that the daily maximum TEC near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semiannual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Statistical studies indicate that the variation of EIA crest in TEC is poorly correlated with Dst-index (r = −0.03) but correlated well with Kp-index (r = 0.82). The EIA crest in TEC is found to be more developed around 12:30 LT.     

Variability study of the crest-to-trough TEC ratio of the equatorial ionization anomaly around 120°E longitude

In this paper, latitudinal profiles of the vertical total electron content (TEC) deduced from the dual-frequency GPS measurements obtained at ground stations around 120°E longitude were used to study the variability of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). The present study mainly focuses on the analysis of the crest-to-trough TEC ratio (TEC-CTR) which is an important parameter representing the strength of EIA. Data used for the present study covered the time period from 01 January, 1998 to 31 December, 2004. An empirical orthogonal function analysis method is used to obtain the main features of the TEC-CTR’s diurnal and seasonal variations as well as its solar activity level dependency. Our results showed that: (1) The diurnal variation pattern of the TEC-CTR at 120°E longitude is characterized by two remarkable peaks, one occurring in the post-noon hours around 13–14 LT, and the other occurring in the post-sunset hours around 20–21 LT, and the post-sunset peak has a much higher value than the post-noon one. (2) Both for the north and south crests, the TEC-CTR at 120°E longitude showed a semi-annual variation with maximum peak values occurring in the equinoctial months. (3) TEC-CTR for the north crest has lower values in summer than in winter, whereas TEC-CTR for the south crest does not show this ‘winter anomaly’ effect. In other words, TEC-CTR for both the north and south crests has higher values in the northern hemispheric winter than in the northern hemispheric summer. (4) TEC-CTR in the daytime post-noon hours (12–14 LT) does not vary much with the solar activity, however, TEC-CTR in the post-sunset hours (19–21 LT) shows a clear dependence on the solar activity, its values increasing with solar activity.