Input Parameters for Models of Energetic Electrons Fluxes at the Geostationary Orbit

The results of cross-correlation analysis between electrons fluxes (with energies of > 0.6MeV, > 2.0 MeV and > 4.0MeV), geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are shown in the paper. It is determined that the electron fluxes are controlled not only by the geomagnetic indices, but also by the solar wind parameters, and the solar wind velocity demonstrates the best relation with the electron fluxes. Numerical value of the relation efficiency of external parameters with the highly energetic electrons fluxes shows a periodicity. It is presented here the preliminary results of daily averaged electrons fluxes forecast for a day ahead on the basis of the model of neuron networks.     

Influence of Fast Global Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields on Space Weather in Cycle 23

It is established that the large-scale and global magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere do not change smoothly, and long-lasting periods of gradual variations are superseded by fast structural changes of the global magnetic field. Periods of fast global changes on the Sun are accompanied by anomalous manifestations in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field. There is a regular recurrence of these periods in each cycle of solar activity, and the periods are characterized by enhanced flaring activity that reflects fast changes in magnetic structures. Is demonstrated, that the fast changes have essential influencing on a condition of space weather, as most strong geophysical disturbances are connected to sporadic phenomena on the Sun. An explanation has been offered for the origin of anomalous geomagnetic disturbances that are unidentifiable in traditionally used solar activity indices. Is shown, main physical mechanism that leads to fast variations of the magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere is the reconnection process.     

Mid-Latitude Pc1, 2 Pulsations Induced by Magnetospheric Compression in the Maximum and Early Recovery Phase of Geomagnetic Storms

We investigate the properties of interplanetary inhomogeneities generating long-lasting mid-latitude Pc1, 2 geomagnetic pulsations. The data from the Wind and IMP 8 spacecrafts, and from the Mondy and Borok midlatitude magnetic observatories are used in this study. The pulsations under investigation develop in the maximum and early recovery phase of magnetic storms. The pulsations have amplitudes from a few tens to several hundred pT andlast more than seven hours. A close association of the increase (decrease) in solar wind dynamic pressure (Psw) with the onset or enhancement (attenuation or decay) of these pulsations has been established. Contrary to high-latitude phenomena, there is a distinctive feature of the interplanetary inhomogeneities that are responsible for generation of long-lasting mid-latitude Pc1, 2. It is essential that the effect of the quasi-stationary negative Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field on the magnetosphere extends over 4 hours. Only then are the Psw pulses able to excite the above-mentioned type of mid-latitude geomagnetic pulsations. Model calculations show that in the cases under study the plasmapause can form in the vicinity of the magnetic observatory. This implies that the existence of an intense ring current resulting from the enhanced magnetospheric convection is necessary for the Pc1, 2 excitation. Further, the existence of the plasmapause above the observation point (as a waveguide) is necessary for long-lasting Pc1 waves to arrive at the ground.      

A Simulation of the Mid-and Low-latitude Ionospheric Electric Fields

A theoretical model of ionospheric electric fields at mid- and low-latitudes is developed. In the geomagnetic dipolar coordinate system, the ionospheric dynamo equations were solved, and the ionospheric electric potential and electric field were derived respectively. Major parameters for the model inputs, such as the neutral winds, the densities and temperatures of electron, ions and neutrals, are obtained from empirical models. The global ionospheric electrical potential and field at mid- and low-latitudes derived from our model are largely in agreement with the results presented by other authors and the empirical model. Using our model, it is found that the diurnal component of the HWM93 wind mainly contributed to the formation of the vertical electric field, while the semidiurnal component mainly contributed to the zonal electric field. Finally, by adjustment of the input F region winds and conductivities, most discrepancies between our model and the empirical one can be eliminated, and it is proved that the F region dynamo is the most significant contribution to the electric fields.      

The Physical Foundation of Forecasting Disturbances in the Geospace From Solar Disk Characteristics

The five main types of antisunward propagating energetic fluxes (particles and emission) may be thought of as well established to date, the effects of which lead to a particilar character of disturbance in the near-terrestrial environment (the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere). The strongest global restructuring of the magnetosphere and ionosphere is caused by fluxes of relatively dense n of 1-70 cm-3 at the Earth's orbit) Solar Wind (SW) quasi-neutral, low-energy (E ＜ 10 keV) plasma which cause magnetospheric and ionospheric storms lasting 24 hours or longer. For that reason, main attention is given to their study at the initial stage of research. The physical essence of the method of predicting disturbances in the near-terrestrial space environment, the amplitude of which can be expressed in, for example, the Kp index units, involves:(1) identifying all the most geo-effective SW streams of type, (2) determing their sources on the solar disk,and (3) quantifying the correlations between the characteristics of their solar sources with a maximum value of the Kp-index that is caused by the concerned type of SW stream. Semi-phenomenological relations have been obtained, which relate parameters of type SW stream sources to characteristics of geomagnetic storms:storm commencement, the time at which the storm intensity reaches its maximum values, the storm duration,as well as to the storm amplitude expressed in terms of geomagnetic indeces.      

Main Science Results from Chinese Meridian Project(2014—2015)

The Chinese Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project (Meridian Project for short) is a ground-based geospace monitoring chain in China. It consists of a chain of 15 ground-based observatories located roughly along 120°E longitude and 30°N latitude. Each observatory is equipped with multiple instruments to measure key parameters such as the baseline and time-varying geomagnetic field, the middle and upper atmosphere and ionosphere from about 20 to 1000km. This project started collecting data in 2012. Here a brief overview of the Chinese Meridian Project is given, and most recent science results mainly in the ionospheric and atmospheric studies are presented.      

Variations of Thermosphere Density Based on Joint Analysis of In-Situ Measurement Data From Shenzhou Spacecrafts

Based on the measurements made by Atmospheric Density Detectors (ADDs) onboard Chinese spacecraft Shenzhou 2-4, the variations of thermosphere density are revealed. During the quiet period, the density at spacecraft altitude of 330～410km exhibited a dominant diurnal variation, with high value on dayside and low value on nightside. The ratio of the diurnal maximum density to the minimum ranged from 1.7 to 2.0. The ratio shows a positive correlation with the level of solar activity and a negative correlation with the level of geomagnetic activity. When a geomagnetic disturbance comes, the atmospheric density at the altitude of 330～410km displayed a global enhancement. For a strong geomagnetic disturbance, the atmospheric density increased by about 56%, and reached its maximum about 6～7 hours after the geomagnetic disturbance peak. The density asymmetry was also observed both in the southern and northern hemisphere during the geomagnetic disturbance peak.      

A Prediction Method for△f0F2min of a Single Station From Interplanetary Parameters Based on Statistical Study

Using 86 CME-interplanetary shock events,the correlation between the peak values of （a） the solar wind parameters(B_z,E_y,P_dyn) and the geomagnetic indices（SYM-H,ASY-H,Kp）, （b） the coupling functions（Borovsky,Akasofu,Newell） and the geomagnetic indices,（c） the solar wind parameters/coupling functions/geomagnetic indices and the ionospheric parameter(Δf₀F_2min), are investigated.The statistical results show that in group（a）,B_{z min} and SYM-H_min have the best correlation,that in group（b）,the best correlation is between the peak values of Akasofu function (A_min) and SYM-H_min,and that in group（c）,the best correlation is between K_pmax andΔf₀F_2min. Based on the statistical results,a method for predicting f₀F₂ of a single station is attempted to be set up.The input is modified B_{z min} and the outputs are SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.Then 25 CME-IPS events that caused geomagnetic storms in 1998 and 2009 are used to check the prediction method. The results show that our method can be used to predict SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.     

Development of Operational Space Weather Prediction Models

In this report, we summarize the needs of space weather models, and recommend that developing operational prediction models, rather than transitioning from research to operation, is a more feasible and critical way for space weather services in the near future. Operational models for solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices, magnetopause, plasma sheet energetic electrons, inner boundary of ion plasma sheet, energetic electrons in outer radiation belt, and thermospheric density at low Earth orbit, have been developed and will be introduced briefly here. Their applications made a big progress in space weather services during the past two years in China.      

Hemispheric Distribution of Lower-band Chorus Waves Observed by Van Allen Probes

Whistler mode chorus waves are important electromagnetic emissions due to their dual roles in acceleration and loss processes of Earth’s radiation belt electrons. A detailed global survey of lower-band chorus is performed using EMFISIS data from Van Allen Probes in near-equatorial orbits. In addition to the confirmation of the positive correlation of chorus wave intensities to geomagnetic activity and dayside-nightside distribution asymmetry of wave amplitude and occurrence probability, the analysis results find that in statistics lower-band chorus emissions exhibit higher wave occurrence rates and larger normalized peak wave frequencies in the magnetically northern hemisphere but somehow stronger peak wave intensities in the magnetically southern hemisphere. While overall the differences between the two magnetically hemispheric distributions tend to be not significant, it is important to establish the magnetically hemispheric distribution profiles of lowerband chorus with respect to L-shell, magnetic local time, and geomagnetic latitude for improved understanding of chorus-induced dynamics of radiation belt electrons.      

Effects of man on geomagnetic activity and pulsations

Until recently the only known large-scale effects of man on geomagnetic activity and pulsations were those produced by high-altitude nuclear explosions. However, in just the last few years, measurements have indicated that changes can also be produced by (1) moderately-powered pulsed HF radio (1–20 MHz) transmissions into the ionosphere, (2) high-powered pulsed VLF radio transmissions (3–15 kHz) into the magnetosphere, and (3) by the ULF magnetic noise (frequencies < 5 Hz) from modern dc electric powered mass transit systems. Further, experiments reported by U.S. and Soviet scientists support the suggestion that ULF geomagnetic changes in the ionosphere and magnetosphere can be generated by the passage of a large ULF current around a peninsula in the sea. As a result of these experimental activities, it appears that controlled experiments using artificially generated ULF signals in the ionized upper atmosphere are now feasible. Finally, the report of a “weekend effect” in geomagnetic activity (as measured by the geomagnetic activity index Ap, for example) suggests that man's activities may already have been subtly influencing geomagnetic activity for many years, possibly because of the radiation from electric power distribution systems into the magnetosphere.     

Ionospheric and geomagnetic Pc5 oscillations as observed by the ionosonde and magnetometer at Sodankylä

The study is based on the data of the rapid-run ionosonde at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory at auroral latitude (L?=?5.25) which routinely performs one-minute sounding since 2007. This dataset allows a unique opportunity for investigating possible effects of ultra-low frequency (ULF, 1–7?mHz) waves in the auroral ionosphere. Suitable observations were made during moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions typically at recovery of the geomagnetic storms caused by solar wind high-speed streams, in the daytime between 9 and 16 MLT. The ionospheric oscillations corresponding to Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations were found in variations of the virtual height of the F layer and the power of ionosonde reflections from E and F layers. The later are most probably caused by modulation of electron precipitation, which is also manifested in weak (about 0.01–0.06?dB) variations of cosmic noise absorption. The most important and novel result is that the pulsations of power of reflection from E and F layers typically has a spectral maximum at nearly half the periodicity of the Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations, whereas such spectral peak is negligible in the geomagnetic pulsations.     

VLF波从大气层到低电离层的传输特性分析

基于传播矩阵法计算了均匀半空间电离层的反透射系数, 同时解Booker复系数四次方程得到电离层的复折射指数, 分别研究了电离层反射透射系数及折射指数随VLF频段入射电波频率、入射角和地磁倾角、电离层电子浓度及碰撞频率的变化规律. 计算结果表明, 在VLF频段, 垂直电偶极子辐射的横磁(Traverse Magnetic)波更易透射进入电离层, 而水平电偶极子辐射的横电(Traverse Electric) 波易被限制在地-电离层波导内来回反射. 电离层电子密度较低时 (如夜间), 在高纬度地区, 观测到地震电离层VLF异常的概率更大. 当考虑地磁场 的影响时, 电离层将允许地震辐射的超低频(Ultra Low Frequency ,ULF)/甚低频 (Very Low Frequency, VLF)部分的电磁波透射进入电离层, 这一点已有很多卫星观测事实为证, 但其进一步的物理机制尚需深入研究.      

使用地磁脉动参数定量预报地球同步轨道相对论电子通量的建模研究

磁层超低频波(ULF波)对种子电子的加速机制是磁层相对论电子产生的一个重要机制, 而地磁脉动参数可以作为此机制的有效指标. 本文采用地磁脉动参数作为输入参数, 借鉴线性预测滤波器技术, 构建一个多参量非线性函数, 进而利用此函数以及卡尔曼滤波技术, 建立一个地球同步轨道相对论电子通量日积分值预报模式, 提供提前一天的预报值. 使用2004年数据对该模式进行训练, 预报结果的预报效率为0.73, 线性相关系数为0.85. 使用2005-2006年的数据对该模式进行测试, 预报值与实测值之间的线性相关系数为0.83, 预报效率为0.69, 相比Persistence模式具有较大提升, 与仿REFM模式的预报效率相当      

ULF wave index as magnetospheric and space-weather parameters

Waves in the Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) band owe their existence to solar wind turbulence and transport momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere and farther down. Therefore an index based on ULF wave power could better characterize solar wind–magnetosphere interaction than K_P, Dst, AE, etc. indices which described mainly quasi-study state condition of the system. We have shown that the ULF wave index accurately characterize relativistic electron dynamics in the magnetosphere as these waves are closely associated with circulation, diffusion and energization of relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere. High speed solar wind streams also act as a significant driver of activity in the Earth’s magnetosphere co-rotating interaction region and are responsible for geomagnetic activities. In the present paper, we have analyzed various cases related with very weak (quiet) days, weak days, storm days and eclipse events and discussed the utility of the ULF wave index to explain the magnetospheric dynamics and associated properties. We have tried to explain that the ULF wave index can equally be useful as a space weather parameter like the other indices.     

用银河宇宙线判定几个引起特大磁暴CME的运动方向

利用位于南北极尖区位置的McMurdo和Thule台站的宇宙线强度的观测数据，分析了几个引起特大磁暴CME的来向．分析结果表明，所选的与4个特大磁暴相关的CME基本是朝正对磁层顶的方向运动并与磁层作用的．通过对引起第23周两个特大磁暴的CME特征分析对照，发现CME的来向是影响磁暴强弱的一个因素．同样条件下，运动方向偏向地球一侧的CME引起的磁暴比正对地球的CME引起的磁暴要弱。     

Observations of wave activity in the ionosphere over South Africa in geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods

The present paper deals with observations of wave activity in the period range 1–60 min at ionospheric heights over the Western Cape, South Africa from May 2010 to July 2010. The study is based on the Doppler type sounding of the ionosphere. The Doppler frequency shift measurements are supplemented with measurements of collocated Digisonde DPS-4D at SANSA Space Sciences, Hermanus. Nine geomagnetically quiet days and nine geomagnetically active days were included in the study. Waves of periods 4–30 min were observed during the daytime independent of the level of geomagnetic activity. Amplitudes of 10–30 min waves always increased between 14:00 and 16:15 UT (16:00–18:15 LT). Secondary maxima were observed between 06:00 and 07:00 UT (08:00–09:00 LT). The maximum wave amplitudes occurred close to the time of passage of the solar terminator in the studied region which is known to act as a source of gravity waves.     

低轨道中等能量电子对地磁扰动的响应

低轨道高度上能量电子通量变化与地磁扰动程度密切相关.利用我国资源2号(ZY-2)03星空间环境监测分系统在轨工作期间所获得的能量电子探测数据,以及美国NOAA-15,NOAA-16,NOAA-17三颗卫星中等能量电子探测器自1998年以来积累的太阳同步轨道中等能量电子探测数据,结合地磁活动观测数据,对低轨道高度上中等能量电子对地磁扰动的响应特性进行了统计分析.结果表明,该区域的中等能量电子通量在磁暴、磁层亚暴期间有显著增强,增幅大小与地磁活动程度呈正相关关系,强磁暴期间增幅可达一个数量级左右,在响应时间上存在电子通量变化滞后于磁扰的时间特性.      

An investigation of ionospheric F region response in the Brazilian sector to the super geomagnetic storm of May 2005

In this paper, we have investigated the responses of the ionospheric F region at equatorial and low latitude regions in the Brazilian sector during the super geomagnetic storm on 15–16 May 2005. The geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst of −263 nT at 0900 UT on 15 May. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (vTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations obtained at Belém, Brasília, Presidente Prudente, and Porto Alegre, Brazil, during the period 14–17 May 2005. Also, we present ionospheric parameters h’F, hpF2, and foF2, using the Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI) obtained at Palmas and São José dos Campos, Brazil, for the same period. The super geomagnetic storm has fast decrease in the Dst index soon after SSC at 0239 UT on 15 May. It is a good possibility of prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin resulting in uplifting of the F region. The vTEC observations show a trough at BELE and a crest above UEPP, soon after SSC, indicating strengthening of nighttime equatorial anomaly. During the daytime on 15 and 16 May, in the recovery phase, the variations in foF2 at SJC and the vTEC observations, particularly at BRAZ, UEPP, and POAL, show large positive ionospheric storm. There is ESF on the all nights at PAL, in the post-midnight (UT) sector, and phase fluctuations only on the night of 14–15 May at BRAZ, after the SSC. No phase fluctuations are observed at the equatorial station BELE and low latitude stations (BRAZ, UEPP, and POAL) at all other times. This indicates that the plasma bubbles are generated and confined on this magnetically disturbed night only up to the low magnetic latitude and drifted possibly to west.     

VLF Emissions observed at the low latitude Indian station Varanasi

VLF emissions such as hiss, chorus, pulsing hiss, triggered emissions observed at Varanasi (geom. lat. = 14° 55′ N, long. = 153° 55′ E) are reported. An attempt has been made to explain the dynamic spectra in terms of the generation mechanism and propagation through the inhomogeneous magnetoplasma. It is noted that the reported events have propagated along different L-values in the magnetosphere, although they have been recorded at the same station. The ULF waves propagating along geomagnetic field lines modulate the growth rate of VLF waves, which results in the pulsation of VLF hiss intensity. The pulsating growth rate has been computed.