A space exploration strategy that promotes international and commercial participation

NASA has created a plan to implement the Flexible Path strategy, which utilizes a heavy lift launch vehicle to deliver crew and cargo to orbit. In this plan, NASA would develop much of the transportation architecture (launch vehicle, crew capsule, and in-space propulsion), leaving the other in-space elements open to commercial and international partnerships. This paper presents a space exploration strategy that reverses that philosophy, where commercial and international launch vehicles provide launch services. Utilizing a propellant depot to aggregate propellant on orbit, smaller launch vehicles are capable of delivering all of the mass necessary for space exploration. This strategy has benefits to the architecture in terms of cost, schedule, and reliability.     

Private space exploration: A new way for starting a spacefaring society?

Since the beginning space was an exclusive domain of public organizations, the role of privates is becoming more and more important, and not only in commercial activities. However, the main international treaties dealing with this subject are still based on the assumption that space activities are mostly reserved to states. In the last decade the idea that the role of privates could include the management of space infrastructures and launch vehicles gained support and now private launch services are a reality. An even wider role of privates is now advocated and private exploration and exploitation missions are discussed. This requires that space activity in general can generate an attractive return and those business models are identified.     

Competitiveness of commercial space transportation services

Competition between the providers of space transportation has become intense with the distinct possibility of governments providing both direct and indirect subsidies in order to influence transportation user choices. This bodes well for users of transportation services but has serious ramifications with regard to the future makeup of the international space transportation industry. This paper addresses the following key issues: selecting a launch service given a decision to establish a business to provide satellite communication services; establishing the price that should be bid by a launch provider in order to have a specified chance of being awarded the launch contract; and assessing the possibility that a launch provider is utilizing unfair or predatory pricing in order to increase the likelihood of winning launch contracts and thereby increasing market share. A method is developed and results presented based upon establishing ‘value in use’ pricing that explicitly takes into account the multiple attributes of alternative launch services. This leads to an assessment of ‘predatory’ pricing in terms of the value in use pricing.     

Developing new launch vehicle technology: The case for multi-national private sector cooperation

Space is now a global business, yet the cost of getting to space is still high. Developing new launch vehicles that are cheaper, safer, and more reliable is the key to both rapid commercial growth and to more and better government uses of space. However, the R&D process leading to new launch vehicles is expensive and technically challenging; the past 50 years have seen many government development programs, but no major technological breakthroughs. Perhaps, it is therefore time to think about other ways of developing new launch vehicles. The best expertise in this field resides primarily with private companies and is spread across many actors and nations. A consortium led by space firms might be a better approach to opening up space in the 21st century. Governments will have to develop new policies treating space as though it were a commercial industry, in particular, relaxing export trade restrictions wherever possible. Issues of dual-use may be outweighed by the rapidly growing widespread availability of launch capabilities. Since new launch vehicles will require large up-front R&D expenditures, government support will continue to be needed to supplement private capital funds. Contributions to this effort should be international. However, difficult it might be in today's security conscious environment to reorient government policy, doing so may offer the most efficient and successful way to break the technological and economic barriers to more reliable access to space.     

Launch vehicles and the commercial uses of outer space : The underlying economic issues

This article discusses the economics of the demand for and supply of launch vehicles. Demand is derived from both commercial and governmental uses of space, while the supply of launch vehicles is determined by governmental needs which are rarely based on economic criteria alone. Multipurpose launches such as the Space Shuttle should be viewed as a national resource instead of a profit-seeking venture. Because of the mixing of government and private uses for space vehicles, traditional economic analysis provides only a starting point for policy decisions.     

International cooperation in space : Enhancing the world's common security

Instead of preparing for space warfare, the USA could make tremendous use of space activities to enhance global security. Arms control verification, environmental monitoring and international cooperation on space missions are important examples. International space year, 1992, could be the time to launch a triumphant effort such as an international mission to Mars.     

The contest for leadership in East Asia: Japanese and Chinese approaches to outer space

Japan and China, as two advanced spacefaring nations in Asia-Pacific region, are often referred to as rivals in space. China's successful manned space launch program in 2003 and ASAT test in 2007 were considered as turning points which potentially introduces a “space race in Asia”. This article argues that there are three defining arenas in a space race: competition for prestige or soft power, competition over military capability or hard power, and competition of international services or public goods. It analyzes the objectives, norms and logics of space policy in Japan and China, and argues that these two countries have quite different thinking over what to do in space, explaining that they are playing different games in the first two arenas. However, Japan and China are competing for leadership and influence over the region. APRSAF and APSCO, two similar regional space organizations, are the vehicles for this competition. It concludes that there is a space race only in the third arena as a competition for leadership in Asia.     

运载火箭多体动力学建模与仿真技术研究

针对新一代运载火箭结构动力学与控制系统耦合强烈、严重影响火箭的飞行稳定问题,提出一种基于多体动力学虚拟样机建模与仿真的方法,有效解决运载火箭姿态动力学模型地面难以验证的困难。首先阐述了在运载火箭姿态动力学分析中应用多体虚拟样机的基本思路;然后对多体动力学模型与传统火箭姿态动力学模型在建模原理上的差异进行分析,指出引入多体仿真技术的意义;最后针对新一代火箭,提出并实现一种多体虚拟样机建模方法,仿真并验证了新一代火箭姿态控制模型与控制参数设计的正确性。本文的研究表明,航天器系统设计中常遇到复杂的动力学耦合问题,采用多体动力学虚拟样机仿真是一种行之有效的方法。     

Cost Engineering – The new paradigm for space launch vehicle design

The paper describes the basic definition and application of 'Cost Engineering' which means to design a vehicle system for minimum development cost and/or for minimum operations cost. This is important now and for the future since space transportation has become primarily a commercial business in contrast to the past where it has been mainly a subject of military power and national prestige. Several examples are presented for minimum-cost space launch vehicle configurations, such as increasing vehicle size and/or the use of less efficient rocket engines in order to reduce development and operations cost. Further a cost comparison is presented on single-stage (SSTO)-vehicles vs. two-stage launchers which shows that SSTOs have lower development and operations cost although they are larger, respectively have a higher lift-off mass than two-stage vehicles with the same performance. The design of a space tourism-dedicated launch vehicle is an extreme challenge for a cost-engineered vehicle design in order to achieve cost per seat not higher than $50,000. Finally an outlook is presented on the different options for manned Earth-to-Moon transportation modes and vehicles – another most important application of 'cost engineering', taking into account the large cost of such a future venture.     

Space policy and the size of the space shuttle fleet

During the space shuttle era, policy makers have repeatedly wrestled with the issue of fleet size. The number of shuttles had both practical and symbolic significance, reflecting the robustness of the space transportation system and US preeminence in space. In debating how many shuttles were needed, NASA and other government entities weighed various arguments to determine the optimum number of vehicles for human spaceflight. Deliberations and decisions about shuttle fleet size reflected changing policy priorities and attitudes about the role of the shuttle. That history frames issues that may arise again in planning for new space transportation vehicles beyond the shuttle.     

The USSR's prudent space policy

Soviet space policy has long been viewed in the West as militaristic and aimed at achieving superiority, a situation which is abetted by the secrecy in which Soviet space activities are shrouded. This article argues, however, that Soviet space policy is essentially prudent and conservative, and based on exploiting existing technology to the maximum. Whilst it has provided the USSR with an impressive space potential, it does not mean that the USSR is ahead of the USA in space. Nevertheless, in the future the USSR is likely to undertake more international cooperation and offer commercial launch services.     

Comparison of advanced propulsion systems in cislunar space

Chemical engines fueled by LOX/aluminium powder, oxygen-fueled ion engines, solid core nuclear reactor engines and nuclear light bulb engines are analysed for transportation purposes in cislunar space. The markets envisaged are the nuclear waste disposal on the lunar surface and/or support of SPS construction in GEO. It is shown that the most fuel efficient permanent space transportation system is not necessarily the most economical choice due to high hardware cost.     

A Ticket pricing strategy for an oligopolistic space tourism market

It is important for any new launch system to develop a successful pricing strategy and to optimize launch system parameters to receive a high economic profit. A question arises, what will happen when an existing suborbital flight market (the first likely to be established in space) is interfered with by a new established orbital flight market for space tourism. There is a risk that the suborbital space tourism market could be almost instantly displaced when a product capable of reaching orbit was introduced. This is best discussed using the following three cases whose results are presented in this paper. Case A presents a ticket pricing strategy for a suborbital and orbital vehicle if the two vehicles do not compete in the same market. Case B shows the necessary ticket pricing strategy for a suborbital vehicle if there is competition from an orbital flight operator. However, the suborbital vehicle would not be able to keep up with a drop in ticket prices due to its obsolete characteristics. Thus, the suborbital vehicle would be forced to stop operation in the year when flight costs became higher than flight receipts as shown in case C.     

我国新一代中型高轨运载火箭发展研究

新一代火箭CZ-5、CZ-6和CZ-7陆续首飞成功,拉开了我国运载火箭更新换代的序幕。新一代中型运载火箭CZ-7于2016年6月和2017年4月圆满完成了两次飞行任务,为中型运载火箭的研制奠定了坚实的基础。在CZ-7火箭基础上,增加CZ-3A氢氧三子级,在海南文昌发射GTO轨道卫星,运载能力不低于7.0t,可快速形成更新换代能力,填补我国GTO轨道该吨位的运载能力的空白。为了进一步提升我国运载火箭的竞争力,对标国际先进水平,针对新一代中型高轨运载火箭开展构型优化研究,以提高火箭性能,降低火箭成本,提升火箭的使用维护性能,满足后续GTO发射任务需求。     

固体运载火箭的技术特点与研制规律分析（英文）

Solid-propellant and liquid-propellant launch vehicles have their own characteristics, both playing an important role in space transportation systems of space powers. This paper reviews and summarizes the development history of solid-propellant launch vehicles, and analyzes their technical characteristics including multiple stages, large payloads, complex separation, diverse operation modes, fast response, and mission adaptability as well as unique advantages in launch activities. This paper analyzes and proposes four development laws for solid-propellant launch vehicles, including improving comprehensive performance, infusing heritage with innovation, unitization and seriation, and optimizing power systems. Finally, this paper proposes the opportunities and challenges faced by solid-propellant launch vehicles based on market demands.     

Priorities in space for the USA

This article follows the story of Shuttle development, in the context of the history of the US space programme from Apollo to the Space Station. The Shuttle was chosen as one of a series of ‘space spectaculars’ and has proven to be prohibitively expensive and unreliable, practical only for a very limited number of specialized missions. The Space Station, too, cannot be economically supplied, even if the USA could afford to build it. The author concludes that NASA should cancel the Space Station and the replacement orbiter for Challenger, and engage on a major programme of launch vehicle development, independent of the US military. The aim should be a dramatic reduction of launch vehicle costs, making spaceflight practical, and a truly independent NASA which could restore the USA to space preeminence.     

Ares V launch vehicle: An enabling capability for future space science missions

NASA's planned Ares V cargo launch vehicle offers the potential to completely change the paradigm of future space science mission architectures. Future space science telescopes desire increasingly larger telescope collecting aperture. But, current launch vehicle mass and volume constraints are a severe limit. The Ares V greatly relaxes these constraints. For example, while current launch vehicles have the ability to place a 4.5 m diameter payload with a mass of 9400 kg on to a Sun-Earth L2 transfer trajectory, the Ares V is projected to have the ability to place an 8.8 m diameter payload with a mass of approximately 60,000 kg on to the same trajectory, or 180,000 kg into Low Earth Orbit. Also the Ares V could place approximately 3000 kg (13,000 kg with a Centaur upper stage) on to a trajectory with a C3 of 106 km²/s², arriving at Saturn in 6.1 years without the use of gravity assists. This paper summarizes the current planned Ares V payload launch capability.     

Excretion of amino acids by humans during space flight

We measured the urine amino acid distribution patterns before, during and after space flight on the Space Shuttle. The urine samples were collected on two separate flights of the space shuttle. The first flight lasted 9.5 days and the second flight 15 days. Urine was collected continuously on 8 subjects for the period beginning 10 d before launch to 6 d after landing. Results: In contrast to the earlier Skylab missions where a pronounced amino aciduria was found, on shuttle the urinary amino acids showed little change with spaceflight except for a marked decrease in all of the amino acids on FD (flight day) 1 (p<0.05) and a reduction in isoleucine and valine on FD3 and FD4 (p<0.05). Conclusions: (i) Amino aciduria is not an inevitable consequence of space flight. (ii) The occurrence of amino aciduria, like muscle protein breakdown is a mission specific effect rather than part of the general human response to microgravity.     

Soviet year in space, 1989

The euphoria surrounding the maiden voyage of the Buran space shuttle seemed to evaporate in 1989, and the Soviet space programme entered a critical period of re-evaluation and self-criticism. Setbacks dogged the Mir, Phobos and other programmes, though there did not appear to be a launch failure throughout the year. Public debate was dominated by economic issues, though useful figures are hard to obtain.     

NASA's integrated space transportation plan

Improvements in the safety, reliability and affordability of current and future space transportation systems must be achieved if NASA is to perform its mission and if the U.S. space industry is to reach its full potential. In response to Presidential Policy in 1994, NASA, working with our industrial partners, initiated several efforts including the X-33, X-34, X-37 and Advanced Space Transportation programs with the goal of demonstrating the technologies that could enable these goals. We have learned that emerging technologies will enable the needed advancements but that more development along multiple, competing paths is needed. We have learned that developing requirements diligently and in partnership with industry will allow us to better converge with commercial capabilities. We have learned that commercial markets are not growing as fast as projected earlier, but there are still possibilities in the near-term to pursue alternate paths that can make access to space more robust. The goal of transitioning NASA's space transportation needs to commercial launch vehicles remains the key aim of our efforts and will require additional investment to reduce business and technical risks to acceptable levels.