Would contact with extraterrestrials benefit or harm humanity? A scenario analysis

While humanity has not yet observed any extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI), contact with ETI remains possible. Contact could occur through a broad range of scenarios that have varying consequences for humanity. However, many discussions of this question assume that contact will follow a particular scenario that derives from the hopes and fears of the author. In this paper, we analyze a broad range of contact scenarios in terms of whether contact with ETI would benefit or harm humanity. This type of broad analysis can help us prepare for actual contact with ETI even if the details of contact do not fully resemble any specific scenario.     

A SETI metapolicy: New directions towards comprehensive policies concerning the detection of extraterrestrial intelligence

At present we have only one agreed public policy for handling the detection of an extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI), the ‘First SETI Protocol’ of 1989, which guides action in the immediate aftermath of detection, even though SETI (the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) constitutes an active search for such a detection. The purpose of this paper is to set out areas in which policies might fruitfully be developed, including reviewing the rationale and investment in SETI, handling ETI artefacts, and approaches to direct contact. ‘Negative’ possibilities will be examined, for example, whether an ETI artefact or data should be purposefully destroyed.     

Legal consequences of a SETI detection

If a detection of ETI takes place, this will in all probability be the result of either: (a) detecting and recognising a signal or other emission of ETI; or (b) the finding of an alien artifact (for instance on the Moon or other Celestial Body of our Solar System); or (c) the highly improbable event of an actual encounter. First and foremost, legal consequences regarding any of these contingencies will result from immediate consultations between nations on Earth. Understandings, memoranda and even agreements might be proposed and/or concluded. Such results within the field of terrestrial law will surely be a new branch of International Law, and particularly of International Space Law. At the same time, terrestrial nations will have to realize that any ETI will be self-determined intelligent individualities or organizations who might have their own understanding of “rules of behaviour” and thus, be legal subjects. Whether one calls such rules “law” or not: if two intelligent races—both of which have specific rules of behaviour—come into contact with each other, the basic understanding of such mutual rules will lead to a kind of “code of conduct”. This might be the starting point for a kind of Law—Metalaw—between different races in the Universe.     

Reactions to receipt of a message from extraterrestrial intelligence: a cross-cultural empirical study

If we ever receive a message from extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI), the societal impact may be significant. To date, several authors have speculated on factors that may predict people’s reactions, but there have been no systematic empirical studies on the range of responses. One obstacle to conducting such studies is that there has been no questionnaire to assess such reactions. In the current study we have designed a psychometrically sound set of scales to assess six beliefs: (1) that extraterrestrial life exists, (2) that ETI would be benevolent and that we should respond to a message, (3) that ETI would be malevolent, (4) that message receipt would be unsettling, (5) that message receipt would be religiously significant and (6) that experts should determine the content of a reply. We report on the construction and use of these new scales, drawing on data gathered from American and Chinese undergraduate students. Respondents also completed measures of alienation, optimism, anthropocentrism and religiosity. This allowed us to predict beliefs about ETI based on personal characteristics and beliefs of the respondents.     

Forecasting the future in space: Highlights from the TechCast Project

Space technology and activities have changed markedly from the early days of the space era and are continuing to develop rapidly. The TechCast Project—set up to pool the knowledge of experts in the scientific fields—includes space in its predictions. Here its president reports on its space forecasts for the 21st century. The importance of the shift towards the privatization of space is noted and the near-to-medium-term impossibility of interstellar travel conceded. Contact with ETI is deemed much more likely, however.     

Policy issues in communicating with ETI

Two possible scenarios for the detection of extraterrestrial intelligence are presented and the issues they would raise discussed. The article then goes on to examine operational questions and reply policy in the event of contact being made. Questions of how such contact should be announced to the world--and by whom; who should send a reply; how it would be designed and what it would say, are explored. Creating a beacon actively to beam a message into the galaxy could provide a test case for international consultation and cooperation in responding to ETI.     

Metalaw and relations with intelligent beings revisited

A body of Metalaw must be recognized or established in order to anticipate the discovery of an incident of intelligent life indigenous to a place or dimension outside the realm and comprehension of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) as understood on the planet Earth. It has been said that the limits of your language are the limits of your world. Recognition of life and communication between intelligent beings is and will be the determining factor in humankind's world of the future. But what is the correct language to use in the search for ETI? Philosophical, legal and sociological realities will govern our future as beings of the universe and beyond. This is a study which must be pursued and perfected to the extent of our abilities prior to the immediacy of our need. Such study was begun many years ago by the best of our scholars but their activities are not well known today. In arguing for the need to proceed with our evolving discoveries of realities and possibilities, this article also brings to light the earlier work of jurists and philosophers on relationships with ETI.     

MAD with aliens? Interstellar deterrence and its implications

The possibility that extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) could be hostile to humanity has been raised as a reason to avoid even trying to contact ETIs. However, there is a distinct shortage of analytical discussion about the risks of an attack, perhaps because of an implicit premise that we cannot analyze the decision making of an alien civilization. This paper argues that we can draw some inferences from the history of the Cold War and nuclear deterrence in order to show that at least some attack scenarios are likely to be exaggerated. In particular, it would seem to be unlikely that the humanity would be attacked simply because it might, sometime in the future, present a threat to the ETI. Even if communication proves to be difficult, rational decision-makers should avoid unprovoked attacks, because their success would be very difficult to assure. In general, it seems believable that interstellar conflicts between civilizations would remain rare. The findings advise caution for proposed interstellar missions, however, as starfaring capability itself might be seen as a threat. On the other hand, attempting to contact ETIs seems to be a relatively low-risk strategy: paranoid ETIs must also consider the possibility that the messages are a deception designed to lure out hostile civilizations and preemptively destroy them.     

SETI terminology: Do we interpret SETI terms correctly?

Many important SETI terms are either ambiguously defined or interpreted by different experts differently. Based on the author's experience with astronautical terminology (IAA multilingual space dictionary) a summary of the usual problems connected with an uniform definition of fundamental terms is attempted. In the second part several examples are quoted from the SETI literature—including the terms ETI, SETI and METI themselves, the definition of a habitable zone, of alien life, of an extraterrestrial artifact, of the Drake equation, of the Fermi-paradox, etc. In the third part of the paper a new task for the SETI social sciences community is raised, namely to collect “Lasting Universal Terms”; i.e. terms the meaning of which did not change since millennia, are independent on geographic position and also on the terrestrial environment and biology. Such terms might be preferably used in interstellar communication. All these questions are related to the manner how we might think about ETI and SETI in new ways. The paper tries to summarize the problems connected with exact SETI terminology and its potential implications for the future.     

Frequency management and SETI: threats to SETI observations in the 1–3 GHz band

The nature of a SETI search makes observations uniquely vulnerable to radio frequency interference because the frequency of a possible ETI signal is unknown. Sensitive radio telescopes, sophisticated software and enhanced signal detection equipment are employed to detect faint signals in the 1–3 GHz frequency range. Frequency management at SETI occurs within a policy environment of the ITU spectrum allocation process. Increased demand by commercial satellite services for access to spectrum adjacent to bandwidth allocated to radio astronomy creates severe international and domestic pressures on SETI observations. Strategies for addressing the RFI problem at the international level will be discussed that include a contingency ITU allocation plan for exclusive use of a particular frequency range by SETI in the event a signal is detected. The lunar farside is, by international agreement, a radio quiet zone for use by radio astronomers. Protected from most human-generated emissions, a SETI radio telescope array on the lunar farside would provide reliable data with minimum interference.     

Typing logic contents using Lingua Cosmica

This paper informs how elements of constructive type theory can be used effectively for clarifying textual messages meant for communication with ETI. Within the setting of a suitable environment consisting of declared terms, it is shown how logical contents of texts can be modelled and codified.     

Transmitting (and listening) may be good (or bad)

Both listening and transmitting may, on an existential level, be either dangerous or beneficial. So we should ignore our irrational fears and listen in the hope of detecting ETI and transmit on the basis of promoting SETI activity.     

Toward a new cosmic consciousness: Psychoeducational aspects of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations

This study presents a new approach to the concept of cosmic consciousness integrated in current neuroscience knowledge and discusses implications for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. It also examines different aspects related to consciousness and how it may play a key role in the understanding of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and life in the Universe and its implications. Subjects (n=116) were college students from Spain, the United States, and Italy. Subjects responded to a questionnaire comprising five different sections: (A) religious beliefs, (B) environment and general opinion, (C) astronomy, (D) contact, and (E) attention and perception. The results showed the importance of several modular aspects that affect Space awareness in humans. Preliminary results are discussed with regard to current neuroscience, factor analysis, and possible implications for the understanding of contact with extraterrestrial intelligence. The roles of education, new search strategies, and possible contact scenarios are also discussed.     

The discovery of ETI as a high-consequence,low-probability event

The authors use the opportunity of presenting a paper during the 51st International Astronautical Congress in Rio de Janeiro to introduce a numerical method of characterizing the potential significance of any announcement of discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence. This approach uses the Torino Scale (for characterizing asteroid impacts) as a model for constructing a proposed “Rio Scale” to assist the discussion and interpretation of any claimed discovery of ETI.     

Legal aspects of SETI—present and future arrangements

SETI projects raise legal problems which neither national nor international laws tackle properly. The protection of experiments is necessary, and should be afforded at both national and international levels. Radio is particularly important. It would also be prudent to establish in proper legal form, and preferably by formal international agreement through an appropriate forum, key evidence of ETI should be dealt with, and, if necessary, responded to. Whether a similar step should be taken as to a reply is uncertain.     

The problem of active SETI: An overview

In the present paper (originally presented at the First IAA Symposium on Searching for Life Signatures hold at the UNESCO on 22–26 September 2008) I try to summarize the results of all my previous studies on active SETI and its possible dangers for us, also considering some new topics, in order to provide a possibly complete overview of the whole matter. First, I try to evaluate the possible risks of an indirect contact with aliens, from the social, cultural, and religious point of view; then, the possible risks related with receiving information about alien science and technology; finally, the risk that active SETI could increase the probability of a physical contact with hostile aliens. My conclusion is that active SETI is very unlikely to be dangerous for us, but, at present, such a possibility cannot be completely excluded. Surprisingly, it turns out that a very important point to be assessed in order to improve our evaluation of active SETI is the pace of our technological progress. Some suggestions about the policy that international community should adopt towards active SETI are also included.     

Expert Algorithmic and Imagistic Problem Solving Strategies in Advanced Chemistry

Abstract

Visualization and imagistic reasoning appear central to expert practice in science; however, expert use of these strategies on authentic tasks has not been examined in detail. This study documents how science experts use both algorithms and imagistic reasoning to solve problems. Using protocol analysis, we report expert chemists' preferential use of algorithms for solving spatial problems and imagistic reasoning for deducing spatial transformations. We observed experts employ algorithms to solve the majority of spatial tasks while reserving imagistic strategies to solve a class of tasks that required translating between representations. Strategy used varied widely among experts and tasks.     

The intelligence in ETI—What can we know?

This paper follows a train of thought initiated in a recent paper [7]. The work sets out a theoretical perspective on the possibility of cognitive universals underpinning the behaviour of animals with brains. Consideration of what we can know of intelligence in beings elsewhere in the universe obliges us to recognise universal and local factors relevant to SETI. Linguistic communication turns out to be genuinely constrained by circumstances even though the existence of linguistic activity will be universal in intelligent beings. The implications for activity in SETI are reviewed. An alternative approach to SETI—described in a recent paper ([9], but see also [8]) is contrasted with the messaging approach, and the conclusion is drawn that an ETI would opt for the alternative.     

A symbiotic approach to SETI observations: use of maps from the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope

High spatial resolution continuum radio maps produced by the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) of The Netherlands at frequencies near the 21 cm HI line have been examined for anomalous sources of emmission coincident with the locations of nearby bright stars. From a total of 542 stellar positions investigated, no candidates for radio stars or ETI signals were discovered to formal limits on the minimum detectable signal ranging from 7.7 x 10(-22) W/m2 to 6.4 x 10(-24) W/m2. This preliminary study has verified that data collected by radio astronomers at large synthesis arrays can profitably be analysed for SETI signals (in a non-interfering manner) provided only that the data are available in the form of a more or less standard two dimensional map format.     

The conventionality of pictorial representation in interstellar messages

Pictorial messages have previously been advocated for interstellar communication because such messages are presumed to be capable of presenting information in a non-arbitrary and easily intelligible manner. In contrast to this view, pictorial messages actually represent information in a partially conventional way. This point is demonstrated by examining pictorial representations of human beings from a range of cultures. While such representations may be understood quite readily by individuals familiar with the conventions of a particular culture, to the uninitiated outsider, such representations can be unintelligible. In spite of the partially arbitrary nature of pictorial representation, we may be able to construct messages that would teach extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) some of the conventions by which we view pictures. One such approach is to pair numerical information about geometrical objects with pictorial representations of the same objects. Problems of conventionality can also be addressed in part through use of (1) multiple representations of the same object, (2) contextual cues, (3) three- and four-dimensional representations and (4) non-visual representations.