System engineering analysis of derelict collision prevention options

Sensitivities to the future growth of orbital debris and the resulting hazard to operational satellites due to collisional breakups of large derelict objects are being studied extensively. However, little work has been done to quantify the technical and operational tradeoffs between options for minimizing future derelict fragmentations that act as the primary source for future debris hazard growth. The two general categories of debris mitigation examined for prevention of collisions involving large derelict objects (rocket bodies and payloads) are active debris removal (ADR) and just-in-time collision avoidance (JCA). Timing, cost, and effectiveness are compared for ADR and JCA solutions highlighting the required enhancements in uncooperative element set accuracy, rapid ballistic launch, despin/grappling systems, removal technologies, and remote impulsive devices. The primary metrics are (1) the number of derelict objects moved/removed per the number of catastrophic collisions prevented and (2) cost per collision event prevented. A response strategy that contains five different activities, including selective JCA and ADR, is proposed as the best approach going forward.     

A Geosynchronous Orbit Search Strategy

Since more than 10 years there is evidence that small-size space debris is accumulating in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO), probably as the result of breakups. Two break-ups have been reported in GEO. The 1978 break-up of an EKRAN 2 satellite, SSN 10365, was identified in 1992, and in 1992 a Titan 3C Transtage, SSN 3432, break-up produced at least twenty observable pieces. Subsequently several nations performed optical surveys of the GEO region in the form of independent observation campaigns. Such surveys suffer from the fact that the field of view of optical telescopes is small compared with the total area covered by the GEO ring. As a consequence only a small volume of the orbital element-magnitude-space is covered by each individual survey. Results from these surveys are thus affected by observational biases and therefore difficult to compare. This paper describes the development of a common search strategy to overcome these limitations. The strategy optimizes the sampling for objects in orbits similar to the orbits of the known GEO population but does not exclude the detection of objects with other orbital planes. A properly designed common search strategy clearly eases the comparison of results from different groups and the extrapolation from the sparse (biased) samples to the entire GEO environment.     

Orbital evolution of the first upper stages used for the new European and Chinese navigation satellite systems

The solutions adopted for the disposal of the upper stages used to put in orbit the first satellites of the new European (Galileo) and Chinese (Beidou) navigation constellations were analyzed. The orbit evolution of the rocket bodies was modeled for 200 years, taking into account all relevant perturbations, and the chosen disposal options were evaluated in terms of their long-term consequences for the debris environment. The results obtained, when applicable, were also discussed in the context of the eccentricity instability problem, pointed out in previous studies. In addition, the long-term evolution of the fragments resulting from a Beidou rocket body breakup, and of simulated high area-to-mass ratio objects released in the disposal orbits of the first two Galileo upper stages, was investigated.Eight out of ten Beidou upper stages were found to have an orbital lifetime <25 years and the other two resulted in a dwell time of approximately 6 years below 2000 km. It was also found that the perigee heights of the two upper stages used to deploy the first Galileo test spacecraft will remain more than 169 km above the constellation nominal altitude, never crossing the existing or planned navigation systems. In spite of an inclination resonance possibly leading to the exponential growth of the eccentricity over several decades, the optimal choice of the disposal orbital elements was able to prevent such an outcome, by maintaining the orbit nearly circular. Therefore, the upper stage disposal strategies used so far for Beidou and Galileo have generally been quite successful in averting the long-term interference of such rocket bodies with the navigation constellations, provided that accidental breakups are prevented.     

A space based radar on a micro-satellite for in-situ detection of small orbital debris

The increase in the number of satellites in the Near Earth Orbit is exponential. The consequent increase in pollution of the orbital environment is of growing concern to the international community. There are currently only two observation systems available for measurement of orbital debris. Ground based radar and telescopes can detect objects larger than about 7 cm. Passive space based systems provide an accurate statistical estimation of flux for debris smaller than about 0.1 mm in size. Consequently, there is no way of obtaining information about debris in the millimeter-size range. Considering that the relative speed between objects in space is commonly in the km/s range, millimeter sized debris carry enough energy to be deadly to astronauts or to totally destroy the functioning of any satellite. Then National space agencies have recommended launching orbital spacecraft carrying debris detection experiments for gaining a better understanding of small debris.CNES (the French Space Agency) is developing a new family of micro-satellites, that will make possible to put into orbit a totally new system of radar that could measure in-situ flux of debris. We present results of this system analysis, which would cumulate the advantages of both ground-based radar and in orbit passive experiments.The proposed method for detection is quite original and allows the radar to act like a band-pass filter with respect to the debris diameter. The optimum frequency is shown to be in the Ka-band. Two points are critical in the definition of the radar: the average power available and the false alarm probability in the detection criterion. Therefore, we present a special receiver chain in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. The estimate of the radial velocity through Doppler frequency measurement may be used to discriminate orbital debris from meteoroids. This system could be built today using an existing Continuous Wave amplifier. Several hundreds of objects per year could be detected yielding an accurate statistical estimation.The orbital debris radar would be a major contribution to our knowledge of millimeter sized debris. This experiment would contribute to making the current models more accurate at all inclinations. The micro-satellite concept would make the orbital debris radar mission cheap enough for considering a constellation of such satellites.     

Study on electrodynamic tether system for space debris removal

As a countermeasure for suppressing space debris growth (P. Eighler, A. Bade, Chain Reaction of Debris Generation by Collisions in Space—A Final Threat to Spaceflight? in: 40th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, IAA-89-628, October 1989), the National Aerospace Laboratory of Japan is investigating a satellite capture, repair and removal system for non-cooperative satellites, part of which involves assessing the viability of electrodynamic tether (EDT) technology as an orbital transfer system. In this paper, some results concerning the time required to remove existing satellites, the behavior of flexible tethers during the debris separation phase, and orbital transfer strategies of EDT systems during space debris removal operations are described. From numerical simulations, it is found that EDT systems can transfer satellites from LEO to orbits with a short lifetime within a realistic timeframe. It is also found that the stability of EDT systems is compromised when debris separation occurs both while a tether current is running and when the ratio of the end mass to that of the service satellite is high. To ensure stability, the end mass should be selected from the target debris group with due regard for the maximum possible mass that can be maneuvered safely. Moreover, it is also found that orbital elements (a, e, i) can be changed independently with an adequate current control strategy.     

Investigation of national policy shifts to impact orbital debris environments

Low earth orbit has become increasingly congested as the satellite population has grown over the past few decades, making orbital debris a major concern for the operational stability of space assets. This congestion was highlighted by the collision of the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 satellites in 2009. This paper addresses the current state of orbital debris regulation in the United States and asks what might be done through policy change to mitigate risks in the orbital debris environment. A brief discussion of the nature of orbital debris addresses the major contributing factors including size classes, locations of population concentrations, projected satellite populations, and current challenges presented in using post-mission active debris removal to mitigate orbital debris. An overview of the current orbital debris regulatory structure of the United States reveals the fragmented nature of having six regulating bodies providing varying levels of oversight to their markets. A closer look into the regulatory policy of these agencies shows that, while they all take direction from The U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices, this policy is a guideline with no real penalty for non-compliance. Various policy solutions to the orbital debris problem are presented, ranging from a business as usual approach to a consolidated regulation system which would encourage spacecraft operator compliance. The positive aspects of these options are presented as themes that would comprise an effective policy shift towards successful LEO conservation. Potential economic and physical limitations to this policy approach are also addressed.     

梯度波纹夹层防护结构超高速碰撞特性仿真研究

文章基于空间碎片被动防护需求,提出了一种梯度波纹夹层防护结构,并对其超高速碰撞过程及形成碎片云的特性进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明,相比于Whipple结构,在梯度波纹夹层结构中冲击波的卸载方式更复杂,更有利于空间碎片的破碎;碰撞速度在5~20 km/s时,碎片云的膨胀半角先增大后减小;夹层结构中前置波纹板对撞击动能中不可逆功的吸收量和吸收占比最大。研究结果对空间碎片被动防护结构的设计具有一定的参考价值。     

美国海基导弹拦截卫星任务的毁伤分析

基于经验模型和基本假设,研究了航天器撞击的解体特性,计算了碎片的尺寸分布、面质比分布和速度分布,考虑生存高度和大气阻力的影响计算了各种碎片的轨道寿命,提出了碎片留轨比例及数量的计算公式,分析了不同尺寸的碎片的留轨特性.结果表明:这次任务产生的碎片将快速坠毁,对空间环境的影响有限.分析结果可以作为参考,更准确的结果有赖于根据实际观测数据进行深入、详细的分析.     

Searching for lost fragments in GEO

This paper attempts to search the lost fragments from the near-synchronous US TitanIIIC transtage explosion of February 21, 1992, known as the second major fragmentation of a TitanIIIC transtage. This breakup was accidentally observed by the Maui GEODSS sensor, and then a total of 23 objects were reported from the breakup, no orbital data on any fragments has been generated by the SSN. In order to evaluate the debris cloud orbital evolution, we demonstrate the actual US TitanIIIC transtage explosion by using breakup model and orbit propagator. The perturbing accelerations, considered in this analysis are the non-spherical part of the Earth's gravitational attraction, the gravitational attraction due to the Sun and Moon, and the solar radiation pressure effects. Finally, we will present a search strategy based on distribution of the right ascension of the ascending node about the catalogued objects and the debris particles from the US TitanIIIC transtage explosion.     

天基轻气炮发射清除低轨碎片方案及关键技术分析

文章分析了现有的空间碎片清除方式,并以800~1200 km低地球轨道高度上1~10 cm量级的空间碎片为清除目标,提出了天基轻气炮清除碎片的新方法。首先分析了轻气炮有效载荷在典型参数下的弹丸加速能力;之后根据将碎片降轨使其坠入大气层烧毁的设想,提出天基轻气炮共面清除碎片的方式,并选择轨道高度800 km的圆轨道作为碎片运行轨道进行可行性分析。计算表明,对半径10 cm、厚度1 cm的铝合金圆板碎片(质量211.95 g),使用初速1 km/s、重10 g的黏性弹丸可按任务方案达到清除效果。此外,计算出该参数弹丸对轨道高度800~1200 km的圆轨道上可清除的最大碎片质量为500~825 g,证明轻气炮弹丸对1~10 cm的碎片具有较强的清除能力。最后,分析了以轻气炮为有效载荷的航天器在完成清除碎片任务时的关键技术。     

Behavior of tethered debris with flexible appendages

Active exploration of the space leads to growth of a near-Earth space pollution. The frequency of the registered collisions of space debris with functional satellites highly increased during last 10 years. As a rule a large space debris can be observed from the Earth and catalogued, then it is possible to avoid collision with the active spacecraft. However every large debris is a potential source of a numerous small debris particles. To reduce debris population in the near Earth space the large debris should be removed from working orbits. The active debris removal technique is considered that intend to use a tethered orbital transfer vehicle, or a space tug attached by a tether to the space debris. This paper focuses on the dynamics of the space debris with flexible appendages. Mathematical model of the system is derived using the Lagrange formalism. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the mutual influence of the oscillations of flexible appendages and the oscillations of a tether. It is shown that flexible appendages can have a significant influence on the attitude motion of the space debris and the safety of the transportation process.     

Continuum Model for Space Debris Evolution with Account of Collisions and Orbital Breakups

The paper discusses the mathematical modeling of long-term orbital debris evolution taking into account mutual collisions of space debris particles of different sizes. Investigations and long-term forecasts of orbital debris environment evolution in low Earth orbits are essential for future space mission hazard evaluation and for adopting rational space policies and mitigation measures. The paper introduces a new approach to space debris evolution mathematical modeling based on continuum mechanics incorporating partial differential equations. This is an alternative to the traditional approaches of celestial mechanics incorporating ordinary differential equations to model fragments evolution. The continuum approach to orbital debris evolution modeling has essential advantages for describing the evolution of a large number of particles, because it replaces the traditional tracking of space objects by modeling the evolution of their density of distribution.     

Searching for lost fragments in GEO

This paper attempts to search the lost fragments from the near-synchronous US TitanIIIC transtage explosion of February 21, 1992, known as the second major fragmentation of a TitanIIIC transtage. This breakup was accidentally observed by the Maui GEODSS sensor, and then a total of 23 objects were reported from the breakup, no orbital data on any fragments has been generated by the SSN. In order to evaluate the debris cloud orbital evolution, we demonstrate the actual US TitanIIIC transtage explosion by using breakup model and orbit propagator. The perturbing accelerations, considered in this analysis are the non-spherical part of the Earth's gravitational attraction, the gravitational attraction due to the Sun and Moon, and the solar radiation pressure effects. Finally, we will present a search strategy based on distribution of the right ascension of the ascending node about the catalogued objects and the debris particles from the US TitanIIIC transtage explosion.     

Use of Optical Characteristics to Identify Orbiting Material

Knowledge of the observable properties of orbital debris is necessary to validate debris models for both the low Earth orbit (LEO) and the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Current methods determine the size and mass of orbital debris based on knowledge or assumption of the material type of the piece. Improvement in the knowledge of material is the goal of the research described herein. The process of using spectral absorption features to determine the material type is explored. A review of the optical measurements of orbital debris as well as current research in the area is discussed. Reflectances of common spacecraft materials are compared. The need for, and advances made possible by obtaining real data are explored. The prospects of the venture are investigated.     

天基照相跟踪空间碎片批处理轨道确定研究

随着国内外天基观测空间碎片研究的展开,文章提出了利用跟踪卫星的CCD(Charge
Coupled Device)相机对空间碎片进行轨道探测的方法,首先建立了CCD照相观测模型和基于 照相观测 的空间碎片批处理轨道确定模型。通过对CCD相机底片归算方法的分析可知,利用
CCD相机所获得的观测数据与跟踪卫星的姿态无关,且其精度只与测量和坐标转换计算的精 度有关,在测量和计算中可获得较高的精度。分别对分布密度较高的低轨道和地球同步 轨道区域的空间碎片进行了定轨分析。仿真结果表明,定轨时采用两个跟踪弧段的照相数据 定轨精度大大高于一个弧段照相数据的定轨精度;跟踪卫星距离空间碎片越近,定轨精度越 高;低轨道空间碎片的定轨精度高于地球同步轨道上的空间碎片定轨精度。
     

The role of the united nations in promoting international cooperation in peaceful uses of outer space

The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) was established in 1959 by the United Nations General Assembly in order to review and foster international cooperation in the peaceful uses of outer space and to consider legal issues arising from the exploration of outer space. Since its establishment, the Committee has addressed such issues as benefits from space activities, the definition and delimitation of outer space and the use of the geostationary orbit, implications of remote sensing, space sciences, space-based communications, navigation and meteorological systems, as well as use of nuclear power sources in outer space, space debris and spin-off benefits of space technology. At its session in 1996, a symposium on the ‘Utilization of micro- and small satellites for the expansion of low-cost space activities, taking into particular account the needs of developing countries’ was organized by COSPAR and IAF to complement discussions on this theme. It was noted at the symposium that the increasing number of small satellites, in particular the proposed introduction of multi-satellite ‘constellations’ at low orbits, would result in concentrations of satellite mass at certain regions of space around the Earth. Special provisions would be needed to minimize the probability of satellite breakups and collisions which might create more space debris and compromise the future of spaceflight.     

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but will be insufficient to stabilize the environment. To better limit the growth of the future debris population, the remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to illustrate and quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. An effective removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 5 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.     

Orbital debris - status and possibilities for control

This article is a shortened version of a position paper on orbital debris compiled by an Ad hoc Expert Group of the International Academy of Astronautics' Committee on Safety, Rescue and Quality. Its objectives were to elaborate on the need and urgency for action and to indicate ways for its implementation. The article reviews debris control options and methods ranging from those requiring no technology development to those which require new and thus far untried developments.     

Evaluation of a satellite constellation for active debris removal

This paper analyzes an example of a three-dimensional constellation of debris removal satellites and proposes an effective constellation using a delta-V analysis that discusses the advisability of rendezvousing satellites with space debris. Lambert?s Equation was used to establish a means of analysis to construct a constellation of debris removal satellites, which has a limit of delta-V injection by evaluating the amount of space debris that can be rendezvoused by a certain number of removal satellite. Consequently, we determine a constellation of up to 38 removal satellites for debris removal, where the number of space debris rendezvoused by a single removal satellite is not more than 25, removing up to 584 pieces of debris total. Even if we prepare 38 removal satellites in their respective orbits, it is impossible to remove all of the space debris. Although many removal satellites, over 100 for example, can remove most of the space debris, this method is economically disproportionate. However, we can also see the removal satellites are distributed nearly evenly. Accordingly, we propose a practical two-stage strategy. The first stage is to implement emergent debris removal with the 38 removal satellites. When we find a very high probability of collision between a working satellite and space debris, one of the removal satellites in the constellation previously constructed in orbit initiates a maneuver of emergent debris removal. The second stage is a long-term space debris removal strategy to suppress the increase of space debris derived from collisions among the pieces of space debris. The constellation analyzed in this paper, which consists of the first 38 removal satellites, can remove half of the over 1000 dangerous space debris among others, and then the constellation increases the number of the following removal satellites in steps. At any rate, an adequate orbital configuration and constellation form is very important for both space debris removal and economic efficiency. Though the size of constellation of debris removal satellites would be small originally, such a constellation of satellites should be one of the initial constellations of removal satellites to ensure the safety of the future orbital environment.     

Effect of Multi-wall System Composition on Survivability for Spacecraft Impacted by Orbital Debris

Long-duration spacecraft in low earth orbit such as the International Space Station (ISS) are highly susceptible to high-speed impacts by pieces of debris from past earth-orbiting missions. Among the hazards that accompany the penetration of a pressurized manned spacecraft are critical crack propagation in the module wall, crew hypoxia, and uncontrolled thrust due to air rushing out of the module wall hole. A Monte Carlo simulation tool was used to determine the effect of spacecraft wall construction on the survivability of ISS modules and crew following an orbital debris penetration. The simulation results indicate that enhanced shield wall designs (i.e., multi-wall systems with heavier inner bumpers) always lead to higher overall survivability of the station and crew due to an overwhelming decrease in likelihood of module penetration. The results of the simulations also indicate that changes in crew operations, equipment locations, and operation procedures can significantly reduce the likelihood of crew or station loss following an orbital debris penetration.