Detection and Prediction of Absorbed Radiation Doses from Solar Proton Fluxes onboard Orbital Stations

We consider cases of simultaneous detection of the absorbed doses produced by proton fluxes of powerful solar events onboard the Mir and ISS orbital stations and the Ekspress A3 geosynchronous satellite. Experimental data are analyzed using a software package that takes into account the energy spectra of protons at the Earth's orbit depending on the time of event evolution, as well as their penetration to near-earth orbits and through the protective shields of spacecraft. Based on a comparison of the experimental data of dosimeters with the calculation of absorbed doses under the action of solar proton events, we developed a method of estimating the effective thickness of the shielding of dosimeters and made some estimates. A possibility is considered for predicting the radiation hazard onboard orbital stations upon the appearance of solar proton events using dosimeter data from a geosynchronous orbit.     

New results for the space radiation environment of MIR space station obtained by Liulin dosimeter-radiometer. Comparison with LET spectrometer NAUSICAA

Since 1988 high sensitivity semiconductor dosimeter-radiometer “Liulin” worked on board of MIR space station. Device measured the absorbed dose rate and the flux of penetrating particles. The analysis of the data hows the following new results:

In October 1989 and after March 24, 1991, two additional stable maximums in flux channel were observed in the southern-eastern part of South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). These two maximums existed at least several months and seem to be due to trapped high energy electron and proton fluxes. In April 1991 additional maximums were localized in the following geographical coordinates regions: LATITUDE = (−35 °)–(−50 °) LONGITUDE = 332 ° − 16 ° and lat.(−46 °)–(−52 °) long. 360 ° − 60 °. Additional maximums diffusion occurs inside radiation belt. Appearance of these maximums seems to be closely connected with preceding powerful solar proton events and associated geomagnetic dynamics of new belt disturbances. After the series of solar proton events in June 1991 we observed significant enhancement of this new radiation belt formation. To achieve sufficient accuracy of dose rate predictions in low Earth orbits the structure and dynamics of new belt should be carefully analyzed to be included in a new environment model.

From the inter comparison of the data from “Liulin” and French developed tissue equivalent LET spectrometer NAUSICAA in the time period August–November 1992 we come to the following conclusions: Mainly there is good agreement between both data sets for absorbed dose in the region of SAA; Different situation of the instruments on the station can explain the cases when differences up to 2 times are observed; At high latitudes usually the tissue equivalent absorbed dose observations are 2 times larger than “Liulin” doses.     

Prediction of solar particle event proton doses using early dose rate measurements

A methodology for predicting solar particle event doses using Bayesian inference is being developed. As part of this development, we have tested criteria for categorization of new solar particle events (SPE) using calculated asymptotic doses and dose rates for the 22 SPEs that occurred in 2001. In 9 out of 22 events, our criteria for categorization would have over-predicted the range of asymptotic doses in which the tested events would have fallen. In two cases, our methodology under-predicted the dose range in which the event would have fallen. In order to better predict a new event's group category and thus, to better restrict the Bayesian inference predictive model parameter space, we have reexamined our dose rate criteria for categorization of new events. We report the updating of the grouping criteria using data from the 22 SPEs of 2001, as well as five additional SPEs. Using the revised grouping criteria, we present an analysis of group categorization prediction results for the first ten SPEs of 2002.     

Probabilistic assessment of radiation risk for astronauts in space missions

Accurate estimations of the health risks to astronauts due to space radiation exposure are necessary for future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include high-energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, ?. The risk of radiation exposure to astronauts as well as to hardware from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which could be up to 15% of crew time² on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of solar cycle phase using a non-homogeneous Poisson model [1] to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy>30 MeV, Φ₃₀. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses, for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and for a lunar rover during space missions of defined durations. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.     

Rapid assessment of radiobiological doses for terrestrial and interplanetary space missions

This paper presents the doses levels expected in orbits in chart form, covering the range 300-800 km of altitude and 0-90 degrees of inclination behind shieldings similar to the Hermes spacecraft and the EVA spacesuit matter distributions. These charts allow users to rapidly find the radiobiological dose received in the most critical organs of the human body either in normal situations or during a large solar event. Outside the magnetosphere, during interplanetary or lunar missions, when the dose received during crossing of the radiation belts become negligible, the dose is due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar flares. The correct radiobiological assessment of the components of this radiation field becomes a major problem. On the Moon a permanent ground-based station can be shielded by lunar materials against meteoroids and radiations. The radiobiological hazard, essentially linked to the solar flare risk during the transfer phase and the extra-station activities, may be solved by mission planning. For interplanetary flights the problem comes from both increased risk of solar events and from the continuous exposure to GCR. These energetic particles cannot be easily stopped by shieldings; cost considerations imply that more effective materials must be used. Impact on the vehicle design and the mission planning is important.     

The effect of a strong stellar flare on the atmospheric chemistry of an earth-like planet orbiting an M dwarf

Main sequence M stars pose an interesting problem for astrobiology: their abundance in our galaxy makes them likely targets in the hunt for habitable planets, but their strong chromospheric activity produces high-energy radiation and charged particles that may be detrimental to life. We studied the impact of the 1985 April 12 flare from the M dwarf AD Leonis (AD Leo), simulating the effects from both UV radiation and protons on the atmospheric chemistry of a hypothetical, Earth-like planet located within its habitable zone. Based on observations of solar proton events and the Neupert effect, we estimated a proton flux associated with the flare of 5.9?×?10? protons cm?2 sr?1 s?1 for particles with energies >10?MeV. Then we calculated the abundance of nitrogen oxides produced by the flare by scaling the production of these compounds during a large solar proton event called the Carrington event. The simulations were performed with a 1-D photochemical model coupled to a 1-D radiative/convective model. Our results indicate that the UV radiation emitted during the flare does not produce a significant change in the ozone column depth of the planet. When the action of protons is included, the ozone depletion reaches a maximum of 94% two years after the flare for a planet with no magnetic field. At the peak of the flare, the calculated UV fluxes that reach the surface, in the wavelength ranges that are damaging for life, exceed those received on Earth during less than 100?s. Therefore, flares may not present a direct hazard for life on the surface of an orbiting habitable planet. Given that AD Leo is one of the most magnetically active M dwarfs known, this conclusion should apply to planets around other M dwarfs with lower levels of chromospheric activity.     

Configuration studies for active electrostatic space radiation shielding

Developing successful and optimal solutions to mitigating the hazards of severe space radiation in deep space long duration missions is critical for the success of deep-space explorations. Space crews traveling aboard interplanetary spacecraft will be exposed to a constant flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), as well as intense fluxes of charged particles during solar particle events (SPEs). A recent report (Tripathi et al., Adv. Space Res. 42 (2008) 1043–1049), had explored the feasibility of using electrostatic shielding in concert with the state-of-the-art materials shielding technologies. Here we continue to extend the electrostatic shielding strategy and quantitatively examine a different configuration based on multiple toroidal rings. Our results show that SPE radiation can almost be eliminated by these electrostatic configurations. Also, penetration probabilities for novel structures such as toroidal rings are shown to be substantially reduced as compared to the simpler all-sphere geometries. More interestingly, the dimensions and aspect ratio of the toroidal rings could be altered and optimized to achieve an even higher degree of radiation protection.     

Sequences of Solar Events with Identical Decays as a Tool for Isolating Quasistationary States in the Interplanetary Space

Time profile of the fluxes of energetic solar particles generated by solar flares (including their phase of decline) is formed to a large extent by the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and its irregularities that move away from the Sun with the solar wind velocity. When propagation is a pure diffusion, the solar particle fluxes decay after the maximum in a power-law manner. At the same time in many cases this decay is exponential, which is indicative of a considerable role played by the convective sweep of particles and their adiabatic deceleration in the expanding solar wind. In this paper we consider the events with long exponential decays and newly discovered series of successive events with identical exponential decays lasting for one to two weeks or more. They allow us to assume that the interplanetary space is stable and homogeneous during this period.     

Low cost planetary exploration: surrey lunar minisatellite and interplanetary platform missions

In order to meet the growing global requirement for affordable missions beyond Low Earth Orbit, two types of platform are under design at the Surrey Space Centre. The first platform is a derivative of Surrey's UoSAT-12 minisatellite, launched in April 1999 and operating successfully in-orbit. The minisatellite has been modified to accommodate a propulsion system capable of delivering up to 1700 m/s delta-V, enabling it to support a wide range of very low cost missions to LaGrange points, Near-Earth Objects, and the Moon. A mission to the Moon - dubbed “MoonShine” - is proposed as the first demonstration of the modified minisatellite beyond LEO. The second platform - Surrey's Interplanetary Platform - has been designed to support missions with delta-V requirements up to 3200 m/s, making it ideal for low cost missions to Mars and Venus, as well as Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and other interplanetary trajectories. Analysis has proved mission feasibility, identifying key challenges in both missions for developing cost-effective techniques for: spacecraft propulsion; navigation; autonomous operations; and a reliable safe mode strategy. To reduce mission risk, inherently failure resistant lunar and interplanetary trajectories are under study. In order to significantly reduce cost and increase reliability, both platforms can communicate with low-cost ground stations and exploit Surrey's experience in autonomous operations. The lunar minisatellite can provide up to 70 kg payload margin in lunar orbit for a total mission cost US$16–25 M. The interplanetary platform can deliver 20 kg of scientific payload to Mars or Venus orbit for a mission cost US$25–50 M. Together, the platforms will enable regular flight of payloads to the Moon and interplanetary space at unprecedented low cost. This paper outlines key systems engineering issues for the proposed Lunar Minisatellite and interplanetary Platform Missions, and describes the accommodation and performance offered to planetary payloads.     

Space radiation analysis: Radiation effects and particle interaction outside the Earth's magnetosphere using GRAS and GEANT4

In order to explore the Moon and Mars it is necessary to investigate the hazards due to the space environment and especially ionizing radiation. According to previous papers, much information has been presented in radiation analysis inside the Earth's magnetosphere, but much of this work was not directly relevant to the interplanetary medium. This work intends to explore the effect of radiation on humans inside structures such as the ISS and provide a detailed analysis of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar proton events (SPEs) using SPENVIS (Space Environment Effects and Information System) and CREME96 data files for particle flux outside the Earth's magnetosphere. The simulation was conducted using GRAS, a European Space Agency (ESA) software based on GEANT4. Dose and equivalent dose have been calculated as well as secondary particle effects and GCR energy spectrum. The calculated total dose effects and equivalent dose indicate the risk and effects that space radiation could have on the crew, these values are calculated using two different types of structures, the ISS and the TransHab modules. Final results indicate the amounts of radiation expected to be absorbed by the astronauts during long duration interplanetary flights; this denotes importance of radiation shielding and the use of proper materials to reduce the effects.     

空间质子直接和非直接电离引发单粒子效应的地面等效评估试验方法

以40 nm和65 nm CMOS工艺SRAM为样品,进行质子辐照单粒子效应试验研究,以建立空间质子引起单粒子效应的地面等效评估试验方法.分别进行低能质子直接电离、高能质子核反应和重离子直接电离引起的单粒子翻转试验;根据获得的试验数据,分析讨论给出空间质子引起半导体器件单粒子效应的地面等效评估试验方法:对低能质子直接电...     

Fine structure of interplanetary shock fronts from the data of the BMSW instrument of the PLASMA-F experiment

The paper is concerned with studying the thickness of fronts of 38 interplanetary shocks detected by the BMSW instrument, which is a part of the scientific payload of the SPEKTR-R spacecraft, which was launched into a highly elliptical orbit in 2011. The main parameters of the interplanetary shocks have been calculated as follows: the ratio of thermal pressure to magnetic pressure before the front β, the angle between the shock front normal and the undisturbed magnetic field θ_Bn, the ratio of the shock propagation velocity to the magnetosonic velocity in the undisturbed region M_ms, and the shock front velocity relative to the Earth. It has been shown that the front thickness determined from the plasma parameters approximately matches the front thickness obtained from the magnetic field measurements and lies between 0.5 and 5 proton inertial lengths. In some events, the oscillations have been observed (upstream and downstream of the shock) in plasma parameters and in the magnetic field data. The length has been found to be between 0.5 and 6 proton inertial lengths for the preceding oscillations and between 0.5 and 10 proton inertial lengths for the following oscillations. The average value of the proton inertial length is 62 km.     

Spending without results: lessons from the space station program

The US spent all of the funds originally estimated for the initial development of its orbital space station without producing any significant amount of flight hardware. This article shows how a project with large design costs and significant “non-prime” outlays can quickly deplete program funds. The authors recount the way in which budgetary politics, congressional micro-management, and technological risk conspired to produce this result.     

Creating a productive international partnership in the Vision for Space Exploration

When US President George W. Bush on 14 January 2004 announced a new US “Vision for Space Exploration”, he called for international participation in “a journey, not a race”, a call received with skepticism and concern elsewhere. But, after a slow start in implementing this directive, during 2006 NASA has increased the forward momentum of action on the program and of discussions on international cooperation in exploring “the Moon, Mars, and beyond”. There are nevertheless a number of significant top-level issues that must be addressed if a cooperative approach to human space exploration is to be pursued. These include the relationship between utilization of the ISS and the lunar exploration plans, integration of potential partners’ current and future capabilities into the exploration plans, and the evolving space-related intentions of other countries.     

Propulsion of space ships by nuclear explosion

Recent progress in the research on deuterium-tritium (D-T) inertially confined microexplosions encourages one to reconsider the nuclear propulsion of spaceships based on the concept originally proposed in the Orion project. We discuss first the acceleration of medium-sized spaceships by D-T explosions whose output is in the range of 0.1–10 t of TNT. The launching of such a ship into an Earth orbit or beyond by a large nuclear explosion in an underground cavity is sketched out in the second section of the paper, and finally we consider a hypothetical Mars mission based on these concepts. In the conclusion it is argued that propulsion based on the Orion concept only is not the best method for interplanetary travel owing to the very large number of nuclear explosion required. A combination of a super gun and subsequent rocket propulsion using advanced chemical fuels appears to be the best solution for space flights of the near future.From Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 1, 2005, pp. 67–75.Original English Text Copyright © 2005 by Linhart, Kravárik.     

The Earth's Magnetosphere Response to Solar Wind Events according to the INTERBALL Project Data

The results of studying the interaction of two types of the solar wind (magnetic clouds and solar wind of extremely low density) with the Earth's magnetosphere are discussed. This study is based of the INTERBALL space project measurements and on the other ground-based and space observations. For moderate variations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, the response of the magnetosphere is similar to its response to similar changes in the absence of magnetic clouds and depends on a previous history of IMF variations. Extremely large density variations on the interplanetary shocks, and on leading and trailing edges of the clouds result in a strong deformation of the magnetosphere, in large-scale motion of the geomagnetic tail, and in the development of magnetic substorms and storms. The important consequences of these processes are: (1) the observation of regions of the magnetosphere and its boundaries at great distances from the average location; (2) density and temperature variations in the outer regions of the magnetosphere; (3) multiple crossings of geomagnetic tail boundaries by a satellite; and (4) bursty fluxes of electrons and ions in the magnetotail, auroral region, and the polar cap. Several polar activations and substorms can develop during a single magnetic cloud arrival; a greater number of these events are accompanied, as a rule, by the development of a stronger magnetic storm. A gradual, but very strong, decrease of the solar wind density on May 10–12, 1999, did not cause noticeable change of geomagnetic indices, though it resulted in considerable expansion of the magnetosphere.     

A socio-economic evaluation of the lunar environment and resources: II. Energy for the selenosphere

This first of several study papers, based on a fundamental paper presented in 1972, provides an independent conceptual analysis and evaluation of the lunar environment as industrial base and habitat. A selenosphere system strategy is outlined. The underlying concept is that of one or several lunar industrial zones for resource extraction and on-surface processing, integrated with a circumlunar zero-g processing capability, serving markets in geolunar space. A classification of lunar elements by utilization category is presented. Lunar oxygen is a prime candidate for being an initial economic “drawing card”, because of its value for fast transportation in geolunar space, requiring significantly fewer ships for equal transfer capability per unit time than electric transports which, however, have value, especially between geosynchronous and lunar orbit. The reduced development difficulties of controlled fusion outside the atmosphere and its advantages for extracting oxygen and other elements in quantity are summarized. Examples of lunar cycle management as fundamental exoindustrial requirement for economic resource enhancement are presented. The principal initial socio-economic value of lunar industry lies in the use of lunar resources for exoindustrial products and operations designed to accelerate, intensify and diversify Earth-related benefits. In the longer run, lunar settlements are a highly suitable proving ground for studying and testing the complex matrix of technological, biological, cultural, social and psychological aspects that must be understood and manageable before large settlements beyond Earth can have a realistic basis for viability. The lunar environment is more suitable for experimentation and comparatively more “forgiving” in case of failures than is orbital space.     

Some features of solar cosmic ray penetration into the Earth’s magnetosphere

We compared fluxes of the 1–100 MeV solar energetic particles (SEP) measured in the interplanetary medium (ACE) and in the magnetosphere (Universitetsky-Tatiana, POES—in polar caps, and GOES-11—at geosynchronous orbit) during several SEP events of 2005–2006. Peak intensities of the SEP fluxes inside and outside the magnetosphere were compared for each event. It is shown that observed inside-outside difference depends mainly on direction of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), on degree of the SEP anisotropy (pitch-angle distribution) in IMF, and on distance of the dayside magnetopause from the Earth.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar,Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances, 1976–2000: 3

In this paper we continue the analysis of the influence of solar and interplanetary events on magnetic storms of the Earth that was started in [9, 10]. Different experimental results on solar-terrestrial physics are analyzed in the study and the effects are determined that arise due to differences in the methods used to analyze the data. The classifications of magnetic storms by the K _p and D _st indices, the solar flare classifications by optical and X-ray observations, and the classifications of different geoeffective interplanetary events are compared and discussed. It is demonstrated that quantitative estimations of the relationships between two types of events often depend on the direction in which the events are compared. In particular, it was demonstrated that the geoeffectiveness of halo CMEs (that is, the percentage of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections that result in geomagnetic storms) is 40–50%. Higher values given in some papers were obtained by another method, in which they were defined as the probability of finding candidates for a source of geomagnetic storms among CMEs, and, strictly speaking, these values are not true estimates of the geoeffectiveness. The latter results are also in contrast with the results of the two-stage tracing of the events: first a storm—an interplanetary disturbance, and then an interplanetary disturbance—a CME.     

Space weather forecast: Principles of the construction and boundaries of the implementation (experience of three cycles)

All significant short-term disturbances of the near-Earth space are caused exclusively by solar flare events and regions in the solar corona with the magnetic field open into the interplanetary space (coronal holes). Flare processes occur as a consequence of the interactions of new emerging magnetic fluxes within (flares) and outside (filament ejections) the active regions with already existing magnetic fields. The observation of emerging new magnetic fluxes and the estimate of their magnitude and the emerging rate allow one to forecast solar flares and filament ejections and estimate their degree of geoeffectiveness. The main agents that visualize the propagation of disturbance from solar flares and filaments in the solar corona and the interplanetary space are coronal mass ejections, the characteristics of which ideally allow one to estimate the possible disturbance of the geomagnetic field, the possible growth of high-energy charged particle fluxes in the near-Earth space. For successful forecast of geoeffective active phenomena on the Sun and their consequences in the near-Earth space, it is necessary to know the situation on the Sun for the last 3 days taking into account the development and characteristics of the current cycle and the epoch of solar activity.