STEP: a tool for estimating avionics life cycle costs

An overview is presented of how the US Air Force has had significant success in the estimation of life cycle costs (LCC) for avionics hardware and software using the Standardization Evaluation Program (STEP) model for estimating operating and support (O&S) costs. The capabilities of the existing STEP model as well as ongoing enhancements to provide a total LCC estimating methodology are described. In addition to the standard cost reports, STEP has the capability to assess the impact of reliability on life cycle cost. Another unique feature of the STEP model is the capability to assess the impact of retest OK (RTOK) on life cycle costs. The acquisition enhancement is being accomplished in three parts each of which will produce a distinct, usable product. The three products are an automated database, an analogy estimating capability, and a parametric estimating technique. Each is briefly discussed     

PLS-SEM在装备成本估算核心参数中的应用

参数估算法是当前武器装备成本估算的主要方法。TruePlanning软件作为国际主流的参数法成本估算软件,其核心参数是制造复杂度（MCPLX）。由于该参数在武器装备发展早期无法准确获取,从而使得TruePlanning软件难以适用于新型武器装备的发展早期阶段。以美军战斗机/攻击机为研究对象,从装备性能参数出发,建立制造复杂度的偏最小二乘法的结构方程模型（PLS-SEM）,并进行参数估计和检验。最终结果显示,所建模型拟合结果的平均相对误差为7.94%,拟合效果好;检验样本估算的平均相对误差为5.94%,预测能力较高,满足于战斗机/攻击机新型号发展早期进行费用估算的要求。这也为中国装备发展早期的费用估算工作开辟了新的思路。     

软件可靠性之定量评估方法研究

基于对多种软件可靠性模型的分析,并结合工程软件之特点,提出一种工程软件适用的可靠性定量评估方法,并将其应用于某航天工程软件的可靠性评估。实践表明,本方法简单、可行,对其它领域的软件可靠性评估同样具有参考价值。     

基于BP神经网络的软件项目成本估测方法

为进一步提高软件项目成本估测的准确度,减少在使用传统估测方法时产生的较大误差,提出了一种基于BP神经网络算法的软件项目成本估测模型。利用BP神经网络对软件项目成本进行估计,采用梯度下降自适应Ir的BP算法训练,仿真结果表明,基于算法的软件项目成本估测值与实际成本的偏差较小。     

现代战斗机出厂费用预估模型

Burns模型被广泛用于三代战斗机出厂费用的估算,但由于未考虑三代以后的现代战斗机在研制过程中存在的改进改型、研制周期变长和航电设备技术升级等因素,使Burns模型在计算现代战斗机的出厂费用时会出现明显的误差。根据现代战斗机的技术特征,通过分析其研发采购费用的统计数据和研制过程,将改进改型、研制周期和航电设备技术水平等影响因素考虑入内,建立了一种新的出厂费用计算模型。通过以国外有代表性的现代战斗机为算例进行了验证,结果表明新模型的计算精度有了明显改善,具有一定的有效性和实用性。     

Developing an engineering-statistical model for estimating aerodynamic coefficients of helicopter fuselage

The design of the geometric shape of a helicopter fuselage poses a serious challenge for designers. The most important parameter in determining the shape of the helicopter fuselage is its aerodynamic coefficients. These coefficients are determined using two methods: wind tunnel test and computational fluid dynamics(CFD) simulation. The first method is expensive, time-consuming and limited. In addition, estimates in regions away from data can be poor. The second method,due to the limitations of numerical solution, the number of nodes and the used solution, is often inaccurate. In this paper, with the aim of accelerating the design process and achieving results with reasonable engineering accuracy, an engineering-statistical model which is useful for estimating the aerodynamic coefficients was developed, which mitigated the drawbacks of these two methods.First, by combining CFD simulation and regression techniques, an engineering model was presented for the estimation of aerodynamic coefficients. Then, by using the data from a wind tunnel test and implementation of statistical adjustment, the engineering model was modified and an engineering-statistical model was obtained. By spending less time and cost, the final model provided the aerodynamic coefficients of a helicopter fuselage at the desired angles of attack with reasonable accuracy. Finally, three numerical examples were provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model. Comparative results demonstrate the effectiveness of the engineering-statistical model in estimating the aerodynamic coefficients of a helicopter fuselage.     

A serialized civil aircraft R&D cost estimation model considering commonality based on BP algorithm

The common design of serial civil aircraft, an important strategy of modern civil aircraft research and develop-ment, minimizes the whole life cycle cost of civil aircraft through asset reuse and resource sharing. However, the existing estimating model for the R&D cost of civil aircraft ignores the effects of common design, so the value estimated by estimating derivative models is significantly inconsistent with the actual one. To solve this problem, a novel assessment method for civil aircr...     

热交换对喷气发动机过渡过程影响分析

给出一种用于估算气流与零部件间热交换对过渡过程影响的方法。利用该方法计算了某双轴涡扇发动机在加速过程中各主要零部件与气流间的热交换随加速时间的变化，各部件热交换对推力响应的影响；计算和分析了该发动机在相同供油规律下“冷”和“热”两种加速过程，估算了典型部件换热面积和质量对加速性的影响。计算结果的分析表明：高温部件与气流的热交换对喷气发动机的过渡过程有不容忽视的影响；相同供油规律下由于热交换使“冷”和“热”加速过程的差异十分显著，“冷”加速过程允许采用补偿供油改善加速性；零部件换热面积和质量的估算精度对加速性有一定的影响，但不显著。     

航空装备研制费的参数化估算方法研究

根据现代航空装备研制特征及研制费内容构成,对航空装备研制费影响因素及其度量方式进行了分析,针对国内同类航空装备研制项目样本数据少而研制费用影响因素多的特点,研究提出了采用偏最小二乘回归方法开展样本数据的主成分分析和综合变量提取、建立参数化费用估算模型的参数化估算方法。案例证明,提出的参数化估算方法适用于小样本多元数据条件下的费用模型构建,构建的模型预测准确性满足费用估算要求。     

Range and Bearing Estimation in Passive Sonar

Passive sonar systems are used for estimating the range and bearing of signal sources, such as ships or submarines. In this study, the Cramer-Rao bounds on estimation errors are used as measures of the accuracy of the estimates. The bounds show how parameters such as observation time, signal bandwidth, signal-to-noise ratio, and array geometry can be chosen to obtain maximum accuracy. When the array geometry satisfies certain conditions, the bound for range estimate is shown to be independent of the actual source bearing and the bound for bearing estimate independent of both the range and bearing of the source. It is also shown that the same conditions on array geometry ensure that the range or bearing estimation accuracy is not degraded when tne other pammeter is not known.     

Developing an engineering-statistical model for estimating aerodynamic coeffcients of helicopter fuselage

The design of the geometric shape of a helicopter fuselage poses a serious challenge for designers. The most important parameter in determining the shape of the helicopter fuselage is its aerodynamic coefficients. These coefficients are determined using two methods:wind tunnel test and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The first method is expensive, time-consuming and limited. In addition, estimates in regions away from data can be poor. The second method, due to the limitations of numerical solution, the number of nodes and the used solution, is often inaccurate. In this paper, with the aim of accelerating the design process and achieving results with reasonable engineering accuracy, an engineering-statistical model which is useful for estimating the aerodynamic coefficients was developed, which mitigated the drawbacks of these two methods. First, by combining CFD simulation and regression techniques, an engineering model was pre-sented for the estimation of aerodynamic coefficients. Then, by using the data from a wind tunnel test and implementation of statistical adjustment, the engineering model was modified and an engineering-statistical model was obtained. By spending less time and cost, the final model provided the aerodynamic coefficients of a helicopter fuselage at the desired angles of attack with reasonable accuracy. Finally, three numerical examples were provided to illustrate the application of the pro-posed model. Comparative results demonstrate the effectiveness of the engineering-statistical model in estimating the aerodynamic coefficients of a helicopter fuselage.     

大型民用飞机涡扇发动机采购成本研究

通过查阅大量国内外相关文献资料和报道,并结合作者的工作经验,首先探索了大型民用飞机发动机的研制和批生产成本的分析方法和计算模型,估算了市场上新型发动机的研制成本和批生产成本。然后提出了大型民用飞机发动机的基本价格计算方法,利用市场上新型涡扇发动机的参数进行计算分析,并结合飞机的基本价格进行了比较分析。在分析发动机成本、基本价格和市场竞争情况的基础上,分析了实际采购价格策略。研究表明,在市场经济条件下,发动机采购成本估算应采用"市场定价"准则。提出的方法合理,计算简便易用,精度能满足实际需要。可以为中国研制大飞机项目提供参考,同时也可以为航空公司在选择和采购发动机时提供参考,以便合理估算大型民用飞机涡扇发动机的采购成本。     

Avionics cost of ownership

The cost of ownership of avionics includes not only the development and acquisition cost, but also the yearly operating and support (O and S) (maintenance) cost of hardware, software, and support equipment. This paper presents an avionics cost of ownership methodology developed for USAF, its data sources, and business metrics computed for USAF decision makers as we move toward operating avionics as a business. The business model is used to determine which existing avionics are candidates for replacement with new technology and to prioritize the replacements. These avionics are often used on multiple aircraft types which necessitates analysis of the causes of the high cost of ownership on each type. Databases are used to document the processing functions, data flow, and constraints of the item being analyzed. These constraints include physical, environmental, electrical, and data interfaces. Databases containing alternatives are evaluated against standard mission scenarios for aircraft utilizing these high cost avionics to determine their impact on performance, O and S costs, and mission effectiveness. The results of the foregoing analyses steps are then used in life cycle cost analyses which consider different retrofit scenarios for each alternative for each aircraft type against the avionics being analyzed for replacement. The alternatives are prioritized and a risk analysis performed considering technical, schedule, and cost growth risks. The avionics cost of ownership methodology described in this paper processes data from USAF maintenance organizations. This has revealed the very large expenditures being made to support highly unreliable avionics. These methods can be applied to all military and commercial aircraft systems to determine not only the cost of ownership of existing systems, but also the cost of ownership of new systems when they are retrofit     

非线性状态方程自校准滤波方法

针对工程实际中遇到的非线性系统状态方程中含未知输入（如环境因素的影响、模型和参数选取不当等）的情况,采用自校准技术,基于秩滤波与无迹Kalman滤波算法提出了一种非线性状态方程自校准滤波方法,并分别讨论了自校准秩滤波(SRF)与自校准无迹Kalman滤波(SUKF)两种情况。大量仿真结果和工程应用表明:与无迹Kalman滤波(UKF)相比,该方法通过对系统状态方程中的未知输入进行自动估计和补偿,改善了系统受未知输入影响下的滤波效果,从算例中可以看到,估计精度至少提高了80%,且计算简单,便于工程应用。      

飞机制造成本估算BOM模型研究

为了获取准确的成本估算信息,针对飞机制造的复杂性和数据信息共享的即时性等特点,对目前产品制造费用按工时比例分摊到产品的估算不准确的缺陷,依据ABC作业成本法的思想,建立以BOM为主线的成本估算模型,并给出从直接发生的活动对成本进行归集,依照活动的目标进行分配,成本BOM逐层卷积估算产品成本的方法。最后,利用J2EE技术进行系统实现,并给出一个应用实例。     

民用飞机全寿命周期成本及经济性设计研究

总结了民用飞机全寿命周期成本研究方法,对民机型号研制中通常采用的成本估算方法和软件工具进行了介绍。在此基础上,一方面从民机运营经济性的角度对不同市场条件下的计算分析模型进行了对比,指出发展更可靠的直接维修成本（DMC）模型的必要性;另一方面,从民机研制的角度,通过将经济性分析模块有机融入传统飞机设计流程,提出面向经济性设计的总体思路,为实现民用飞机的多学科设计提供了基础。     

单子样寿命试验评估的综合概率分布法

提出了大型复杂结构体系或机构系统只做单子样1次寿命试验的评估方法。即据单子样的1次试验值创造性地提出确定当前概率分布及据此作出评估的方法,继而给出了结合半经验算法与当前概率分布算法的加权综合算法。附有算例阐明所提出的方法。     

Ballistic missile track initiation from satellite observations

An algorithm is presented to initiate tracks of a ballistic missile in the initial exoatmospheric phase, using line of sight (LOS) measurements from one or more moving platforms (typically satellites). The major feature of this problem is the poor target motion observability which results in a very ill-conditioned estimation problem. The Gauss-Newton iterative least squares minimization algorithm for estimating the state of a nonlinear deterministic system with nonlinear noisy measurements has been previously applied to the problem of angles-only orbit determination using more than three observations. A major shortcoming of this approach is that convergence of the algorithm depends strongly on the initial guess. By using the more sophisticated Levenberg-Marquardt method in place of the simpler Gauss-Newton algorithm and by developing robust new methods for obtaining the initial guess in both single and multiple satellite scenarios, the above mentioned difficulties have been overcome. In addition, an expression for the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) on the error covariance matrix of the estimate is derived. We also incorporate additional partial information as an extra pseudomeasurement and determine a modified maximum likelihood (ML) estimate of the target state and the associated bound on the covariance matrix. In most practical situations, probabilistic models of the target altitude and/or speed at the initial point constitute the most useful additional information. Monte Carlo simulation studies on some typical scenarios were performed, and the results indicate that the estimation errors are commensurate with the theoretical lower bounds, thus illustrating that the proposed estimators are efficient     

大涡PIV方法测量水平矩形槽道内湍流耗散率

湍能耗散率的准确测量对工程实际和湍流的理论研究都有着重要的意义。以往的研究多是基于单点速度测量来估算单点的湍能耗散率或者有限体积内的平均值，而不能提供整个流场范围内的耗散率的分布情况。PIV能够测量瞬时流场的速度分布情况，它更适合于用来测量整个流场内的耗散率分布。本文分析了PIV测量得到的速度与单点测量方法之间的关系，提出了大涡PIV方法，运用大涡模拟中的亚网格尺度(SCS)应力模型，对PIV测量结果进行处理得到了水平槽道内的耗散率的分布。对采用不同SCS模型的结果以及量纲分析的结果进行了比较。     

基于BP网络模型估算反舰导弹保障费用

运用神经网络的改进BP算法建立了反舰导弹的综合保障费用估算模型,并对典型的反舰导弹保障费用进行了估算,验证了所建模型的有效性和可行性。