Evaluating the IRI topside model for the South African region: An overview of the modelling techniques

The representation of the topside ionosphere (the region above the F2 peak) is critical because of the limited experimental data available. Over the years, a wide range of models have been developed in an effort to represent the behaviour and the shape of the electron density (Ne) profile of the topside ionosphere. Various studies have been centred around calculating the vertical scale height (VSH) and have included (a) obtaining VSH from Global Positioning System (GPS) derived total electron content (TEC), (b) calculating the VSH from ground-based ionosonde measurements, (c) using topside sounder vertical Ne profiles to obtain the VSH. One or a combination of the topside profilers (Chapman function, exponential function, sech-squared (Epstein) function, and/or parabolic function) is then used to reconstruct the topside Ne profile. The different approaches and the modelling techniques are discussed with a view to identifying the most adequate approach to apply to the South African region’s topside modelling efforts. The IRI-2001 topside model is evaluated based on how well it reproduces measured topside profiles over the South African region. This study is a first step in the process of developing a South African topside ionosphere model.     

Application of neural networks to South African GPS TEC modelling

The propagation of radio signals in the Earth’s atmosphere is dominantly affected by the ionosphere due to its dispersive nature. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provides relevant information that leads to the derivation of total electron content (TEC) which can be considered as the ionosphere’s measure of ionisation. This paper presents part of a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Vertical total electron content (VTEC) was calculated for four GPS receiver stations using the Adjusted Spherical Harmonic (ASHA) model. Factors that influence TEC were then identified and used to derive input parameters for the NN. The well established factors used are seasonal variation, diurnal variation, solar activity and magnetic activity. Comparison of diurnal predicted TEC values from both the NN model and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) with GPS TEC revealed that the IRI provides more accurate predictions than the NN model during the spring equinoxes. However, on average the NN model predicts GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI model over the GPS locations considered within South Africa.     

Geomagnetic activity indicators for geomagnetically induced current studies in South Africa

Intense geomagnetic activity is known to give rise to large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power transmission grids. Recordings of geomagnetic activity provide an efficient and economical way for power transmission system operators to assess GIC risks in retrospective studies. This study investigates local geomagnetic indicators (i.e., hourly peak value, hourly range indicator and hourly standard deviation) in order to determine their usefulness for understanding the drivers of GICs in the South African power network. Results show that the GICs have a higher correlation with the geomagnetic indicators derived from the East–West component of the horizontal geomagnetic field, than the indicators derived from the North–South component of the horizontal field. This directional dependence corresponds very well with the North–South orientation of the power lines feeding the power transformers at the South African Grassridge electrical substation GIC site. It therefore follows that, the geoelectric field driving the GICs at Grassridge is North–South oriented. Further, it is shown that the hourly range indicator has a higher correlation with the GICs than the hourly standard deviation for this particular network configuration.     

Present day challenges in understanding the geomagnetic hazard to national power grids

Power grids and pipeline networks at all latitudes are known to be at risk from the natural hazard of geomagnetically induced currents. At a recent workshop in South Africa, UK and South African scientists and engineers discussed the current understanding of this hazard, as it affects major power systems in Europe and Africa. They also summarised, to better inform the public and industry, what can be said with some certainty about the hazard and what research is yet required to develop useful tools for geomagnetic hazard mitigation.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

An investigation of ionospheric disturbances over South Africa during the magnetic storm on 15 May 2005

The effects of the 15 May 2005 severe geomagnetic storm on the South African ionosphere are studied using ground-based and satellite observations. Ionospheric disturbances have less frequently been investigated over mid-latitude regions. Recently, a number of studies investigated their evolution and generation over these regions. This paper reports on the first investigation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) over mid-latitude South Africa. Using global positioning system (GPS)-derived total electron content (TEC) variations from the South African network of dual frequency GPS receivers, we were able to examine the effects of the disturbance on the TEC. During this storm, two TEC enhancements were observed at low- and mid-latitudes: the first enhancement was observed between 30–45°S geomagnetic latitudes associated with equatorward neutral winds and the passage of a TID, while the second TEC enhancement is associated with a second TID. In addition, the F-region critical frequency (foF2) values observed at two ionosonde stations show response features that differ from those of the TEC during the disturbance period. The dissimilarity between the TEC and the foF2 suggests that two competing drivers may have existed, i.e., the westward electric field and equatorward neutral wind effects.     

Digitally produced landsat map images

Two experimental, digitally produced and enhanced, 1:250 000 scale Landsat mosaic maps are described. The first is a map of the Kingdom of Lesotho, produced in collaboration with the Lesotho Director of Surveys and Mapping. It consists of a mosaic of four contiguous Landsat scenes, collected on two consecutive days, digitally enhanced and overlaid with conventional map data (political boundaries, roads, etc). The map is expected to provide useful information on topography, landforms, etc. for planning purposes.The second map, produced in collaboration with the South African Geological Survey, is an experimental map sheet of the Barberton area, consisting of a digital mosaic of two contiguous Landsat scenes. By means of a colour space transformation, stratigraphic geological map information in digital form was combined with the terrain information as contained in the first principal component of the Landsat data.     

Early development in aquatic vertebrates in near weightlessness during the D-2 Mission STATEX project.

Aboard the German-Spacelab-Mission D-2 the project "Gravity Perception and Neuronal Plasticity (STATEX II)" was performed. STATEX is for STATolith EXperiment. Objects were growing tadpoles of the South African Toad (Xenopus laevis D.) and a juvenile cichlid fish (Oreochromis mossambicus). The results give a broader base for the understanding of how environmental stimuli (e.g. linear accelerations) affect the development and function of the gravity perceiving systems in these two vertebrates. These systems are accepted as models for the human vestibulum. Results of experiments in hyper-g (up to 5 g), simulated weightlessness (Fast-rotating-clinostat) and parabolic flights are compared and discussed.     

Effects of gravity on early development.

The development of embryonic and larval stages of the South African Toad Xenopus laevis D, was investigated in hyper-g up to 5 g (centrifuge), in simulated 0 g (fast-rotating clinostat), in alternating low g, hyper-g (parabolic flights) and in microgravity (Spacelab missions D1, D-2). The selected developmental stages are assumed to be very sensitive to environmental stimuli. The results showed that the developmental reaction processes run normal also in environments different to 1 g and that aberrations in behavior and morphology normalize after return to 1 g. Development, differentiation, and morphology of the gravity perceiving parts of the vestibular system (macula-organs) had not been affected by exposure to different g-levels.     

Fertilization and development of eggs of the South African clawed toad, Xenopus laevis, on sounding rockets in space.

Egg rotation and centrifugation experiments strongly suggest a role for gravity in the determination of the spatial structure of amphibian embryos. Decisive experiments can only be made in Space. Eggs of Xenopus laevis, the South African clawed toad, were the first vertebrate eggs which were successfully fertilized on Sounding Rockets in Space. Unfixed, newly fertilized eggs survived reentry, and a reasonable number showed a seemingly normal gastrulation but died between gastrulation and neurulation. Only a few reached the larval stage, but these developed abnormally. In the future, we intend to test whether this abnormal morphogenesis is due to reentry perturbations, or due to a real microgravity effect, through perturbation of the reinitiation of meiosis and other processes, or started by later sperm penetration.     

FY-3A观测的次南大西洋异常区形成机理

研究FY-3A卫星观测到的内辐射带质子通量分布,发现3～5MeV能道出现除南大西洋异常区以外的第二个异常区.该异常区是一个质子通量的次极值区,由于该质子通量极值区比主南大西洋异常区强度弱、面积小,因此称之为次南大西洋异常区.通过在主南大西洋异常区和次南大西洋异常区分别选取有代表性的样本点进行研究,发现内辐射带质子通量随投掷角近似呈正态分布,当投掷角在90°附近时,质子通量出现极大值;当投掷角大于120°或者小于60°时,质子通量几乎为零.此外,主南大西洋异常区质子通量在各个能道均为完全各向异性,次南大西洋异常区质子通量随着能道增高逐渐趋于各向同性.通过NOAA观测数据对此规律进行了验证,并由此解释了次南大西洋异常区的形成机理.      

The variability and IRI2007-predictability of hmF2 over South Africa

This paper presents an investigation into the variability and predictability of the maximum height of the ionospheric F2 layer, hmF2 over the South African region. Data from three South African stations, namely Madimbo (22.4°S, 26.5°E, dip angle: −61.47°), Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E, dip angle: −64.08°) and Louisvale (28.5°S, 21.2°E, dip angle: −65.44°) were used in this study. The results indicate that hmF2 shows a larger variability around midnight than during the daytime for all seasons. Monthly median hmF2 values were used in all cases and were compared with predictions from the IRI-2007 model, using the URSI (Union Radio-Scientifique Internationale) coefficient option. The analysis covers the diurnal and seasonal hourly hmF2 values for the selected months and time sectors e.g. January, July, April and October for 2003 and 2005. The time ranges between (03h00–23h00 UT; LT = UT + 2h) representing the local sunrise, midday, sunset and midnight hours. The time covers sunrise, midday, sunrise, and midnight hours (03–06h00 UT, 07–11h00 UT, sunrise 16–18h00 UT and 22–23h00 UT; LT = UT + 2h). The dependence of the results on solar activity levels was also investigated. The IRI-2007 predictions follow fairly well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed hmF2 values at all the stations. However, the IRI-2007 model overestimates and underestimates the hmF2 value during different months for all the solar activity periods.     

Air depression over south pole during Antarctic spring and its possible influence on ozone content in this region

Air depression during Antarctic spring, its long-term behaviour and connection with ozone content has been investigated on base of rocket data for polar regions and total ozone data sets for South pole (TOMS data) for 1979–1990. It was shown, that air pressure depression near South polar region in September in the lower stratosphere has a visible (about 5% per decade) negative trend similar to the tendency which total ozone records reveal. Rather high correlation (+0.82) between air pressure in the stratosphere and total ozone content for spring in Antarctica was found.     

Ionospheric storm due to solar Coronal mass ejection in September 2017 over the Brazilian and African longitudes

Coronal mass ejection (CME) occurs when there is an abrupt release of a large amount of solar plasma, and this cloud of plasma released by the Sun has an intrinsic magnetic field. In addition, CMEs often follow solar flares (SF). The CME cloud travels outward from the Sun to the interplanetary medium and eventually hits the Earth’s system. One of the most significant aspects of space weather is the ionospheric response due to SF or CME. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind speed, and the number of particles are relevant parameters of the CME when it hits the Earth’s system. A geomagnetic storm is most geo-efficient when the plasma cloud has an interplanetary magnetic field southward and it is accompanied by an increase in the solar wind speed and particle number density. We investigated the ionospheric response (F-region) in the Brazilian and African sectors during a geomagnetic storm event on September 07–10, 2017, using magnetometer and GPS-TEC networks data. Positive ionospheric disturbances are observed in the VTEC during the disturbed period (September 07–08, 2017) over the Brazilian and African sectors. Also, two latitudinal chains of GPS-TEC stations from the equatorial region to low latitudes in the East and West Brazilian sectors and another chain in the East African sector are used to investigate the storm time behavior of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). We noted that the EIA was disturbed in the American and African sectors during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Also, the Brazilian sector was more disturbed than the African sector.     

An improved altimeter-derived gravity anomaly from shipborne gravity based on the mean sea surface height constraint factors method

Coastal marine gravity modeling faces challenges due to the degradation of the quality and poor coverage of altimeter data in coastal regions. The effective fusion of shipborne gravity data and altimeter-derived marine gravity data can make shipborne gravity data more useful for the accurate estimation of altimeter-derived coastal marine gravity. A mean sea surface height constraint factor (MSSHCF) method based on the ordinary kriging method and the remove-restore technique is proposed to fuse altimeter-derived gravity model with shipborne gravity data. In this method, all data are standardized during the interpolation process to reduce the error and mean sea surface as a vertical variable is added to the semi-variance function in ordinary kriging to obtain the residual shipborne gravity as corrected data source. The coastal marine gravity models V2.1 and V3.1 which fused altimeter-derived gravity data with shipborne gravity data and V1.1 without shipborne gravity data at a spatial resolution of 1′×1′ can be obtained. Validation experiments show that the accuracy of the gravity model V3.1 obtained by the MSSHCF method more closely agrees with the validated gravity model DTU17 and SS V31 than the model V2.1 obtained by the ordinary kriging interpolation method and the V1.1 model. Our results were validated against shipborne gravity data; the accuracy of model V3.1 was 4.95 % higher than the model V1.1 in South China Sea area A and 2.48 % higher in South China Sea area B. Meanwhile, the accuracy of model V3.1 was 2.07 % higher than model V2.1 in South China Sea area A and 2.42 % higher in South China Sea area B. The effects of distance from the coast and sea depth on the marine gravity model were also evaluated. The results show that the gravity model V3.1 has higher accuracy with the change in ocean distance and depth than the V2.1 and V1.1 gravity models. Thus, our study shows that the MSSHCF method effectively refines coastal altimeter-derived gravity using shipborne gravity data.     

Complex principal component analysis of the outgoing longwave radiation observed by meteosat during summer from 1983 to 1985

We have applied Complex Principal Component (CPC) analysis to METEOSAT ISCCP B2 data (3 hours resolution) for the IR atmospheric window channel and the Water Vapor (WV) band at 6.5 microns. CPC analysis of such a data set not only reveals the principal features of fluctuation of cloud cover for the region as a whole, but it also is useful for identifying traveling and standing waves over the African Tropical band. Applied to the whole METEOSAT field, CPC analysis describes both diurnal and seasonal fluctuations for the two channels with good stability from year to year. In the African Tropical band, CPC analysis applied in restricted spectral bands (3–4 days and 4–5 days) reveals the existence of traveling waves at particular areas of West Africa with substantial differences between the years 1983 and 84–85. Results of 84–85 are in very good agreement with those of previous studies using conventional meteorological data in 1979. This analysis reveals also the existence of a standing oscillation over Central Africa with a period around 3.5 days and good stability over the three years.     

基于SAMPEX卫星观测的南大西洋异常区高能质子动态分布特征

利用SAMPEX卫星1992年7月至2004年6月19～27MeV高能质子数据对南大西洋异常区的分布特征进行研究, 发现南大西洋异常区高能质子分布随高度及F_10.7的变化十分显著. 在540±25km高度上, 地磁较为平静时期南大西洋异常区高能质子微分通量随着F_10.7的增大而减小, 同时在F_10.7≥115sfu时减小趋势较为平缓. 对中等及以上磁暴进行统计分析发现, 磁暴期间南大西洋异常区高能质子微分通量和SYM-H指数的绝对值存在明显的反相关关系, 且地磁暴对南大西洋异常区高能质子微分通量存在明显的持续影响效应. 磁暴发生期间高能质子微分通量明显减少. 磁暴恢复相及其之后高能质子微分通量呈现较为显著的恢复过程.      

North–South asymmetry in cosmic ray fluxes as measured in the stratosphere and in selected solar wind parameters in the near-Earth space

North–South asymmetry in the cosmic ray fluxes as resulted from the long-term balloon measurements in the northern and southern polar stratosphere does not agree with that found from the neutron monitor data. In order to reveal possible sources of the observed asymmetry, selected interplanetary parameters were examined. North–South asymmetry relative to the heliospheric neutral sheet was considered for solar wind velocity, plasma density and some other solar plasma parameters. It is shown that North–South asymmetry of the solar wind velocity and plasma density depends on the Earth’s heliolatitude and the phase of the 11-year solar activity cycle. This may be relevant to the results of cosmic ray measurements in the stratosphere.     

2009年6至7月华南地区电离层TEC扰动研究

电离层TEC（Total Electron Content）扰动与多种扰动源相关联．2009年6至7月期间存在地震和日全食的扰动源．利用广州地区GPS监测网在2009年6至7月连续监测到的TEC数据,通过采用前15天数据的滑动窗口对数据进行处理,从时间序列和空间分布两方面分析了华南地区电离层TEC扰动特征．结果显示,2009年6至7月华南地区电离层TEC扰动和该时期发生的地震以及日全食事件可能有关联;2009年7月多个地震发生引起的电离层扰动特征为,震前出现的是正异常,发震当天或震后有可能是正异常,也有可能是负异常;7月22日日全食当天TEC扰动为正异常,推测该正异常是地磁活动、地震活动及日全食综合效应的结果．     

IRI-2007对扩展F的预测与观测比较研究

通过对赤道地区两台站的扩展F 实际观测值与IRI-2007 模型预测值的比较, 研究了该模型预测结果的地域局限性和预测的准确度. 该模型建立在美洲扇区赤道附近台站资料基础上, 本文选取非洲扇区大体同纬度两个台站资料进行对比研究. 统计结果表明, 无论在发生概率日均值的年变化趋势上, 还是在扩展F 发生率年均值随地方时变化以及随太阳活动的统计中, 都存在着明显的差异; 而对非洲两站实测值的分析和IRI-2007 模型对南美巴西地区的预测又分别与当前已有的研究结果相符. 分析结果表明, (1) 建立在巴西台站数据基础上的IRI-2007 模型的统计建模极具参考价值; (2) 赤道和低纬度电离层扩展F 现象有强烈的经度效应, 在该模型建模方法基础上, 结合不同扇区实际资料的统计, 能改进该模型全球应用的普适性; (3) IRI-2007模型能正确反映巴西地区扩展F 的发生概率, 用该模型和其他扇区不同条件下的实测值对比, 提供了一个细致研究扩展F经度效应的基础, 有利于确认导致扩展F发生的基本条件和多种影响因素的具体作用.