Integrated Framework for Understanding Relationship Between Human Error and Aviation Safety

Introducing a framework for understanding the relationship between human error and aviation safety from multiple perspectives and using multiple models. The first part of the framework is the perspective of individual operator using the information processing model. The second part is the group perspective with the Crew Resource Management （CRM） model. The third and final is the organization perspective using Reason＇s Swiss cheese model. Each of the perspectives and models has been in existence for a long time, but the integrated framework presented allows a systematic understanding of the complex relationship between human error and aviation safety, along with the numerous factors that cause or influence error. The framework also allows the identification of mitigation measures to systematically reduce human error and improve aviation safety.     

Crashworthiness uncertainty analysis of typical civil aircraft based on Box–Behnken method

The crashworthiness is an important design factor of civil aircraft related with the safety of occupant during impact accident. It is a highly nonlinear transient dynamic problem and may be greatly influenced by the uncertainty factors. Crashworthiness uncertainty analysis is conducted to investigate the effects of initial conditions, structural dimensions and material properties. Simplified finite element model is built based on the geometrical model and basic physics phenomenon. Box–Behnken sampling and response surface methods are adopted to obtain gradient information.Results show that the proposed methods are effective for crashworthiness uncertainty analysis.Yield stress, frame thickness, impact velocity and angle have great influence on the failure behavior,and yield stress and frame thickness dominate the uncertainty of internal energy. Failure strain and tangent modulus have the smallest influence on the initial peak acceleration, and gradients of mean acceleration increase because the appearance of material plastic deformation and element failure.     

A novel strategy for fine-grained semantic verification of civil aviation radiotelephony read-backs

During the flight of the aircraft, the pilot must repeat the instruction sent by the controller, and the controller must further confirm these read-backs, in this way to further ensure the safety of air transportation. However, fatigue, tension, negligence and other human factors may prevent the controller from realizing read-back errors in time, which is a huge hidden danger for the safety of civil aviation transportation. This paper proposes a novel strategy to implement fine-grained semantic ...     

A multi-aircraft conflict detection and resolution method for 4-dimensional trajectory-based operation

Conflict Detection and Resolution(CDR) is the key to ensure aviation safety based on Trajectory Prediction(TP). Uncertainties that affect aircraft motions cause difficulty in an accurate prediction of the trajectory, especially in the context of four-dimensional(4D) Trajectory-Based Operation(4DTBO), which brings the uncertainty of pilot intent. This study draws on the idea of time geography, and turns the research focus of CDR from TP to an analysis of the aircraft reachable space constrained by 4D waypoint constraints. The concepts of space–time reachability of aircraft and space–time potential conflict space are proposed. A novel pre-CDR scheme for multiple aircraft is established. A key advantage of the scheme is that the uncertainty of pilot intent is accounted for via a Space-Time Prism(STP) for aircraft. Conflict detection is performed by verifying whether the STPs of aircraft intersect or not, and conflict resolution is performed by planning a conflict-free space–time trajectory avoiding intersection. Numerical examples are presented to validate the efficiency of the proposed scheme.     

A Hazard Analysis-based Approach to Improve the Landing Safety of a BWB Remotely Piloted Vehicle

The BUAA-BWB remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) designed by our research team encountered an unexpected landing safety problem in flight tests. It has obviously affected further research project for blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft configuration characteristics. Searching for a safety improvement is an urgent requirement in the development work of the RPV. In view of the vehicle characteristics, a new systemic method called system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) has been tentatively applied to the hazardous factor analysis of the RPV flight test. An uncontrolled system behavior "path sagging phenomenon" is identified by implementing a three degrees of freedom simulation based on wind tunnel test data and establishing landing safety system dynamics archetype. To obtain higher safety design effectiveness and considering safety design precedence, a longitudinal "belly-flap" control surface is innovatively introduced and designed to eliminate hazards in landing. Finally, flight tests show that the unsafe factor has been correctly identified and the landing safety has been efficiently improved.     

Safety modeling and simulation of multi-factor coupling heavy-equipment airdrop

Heavy-equipment airdrop is a highly risky procedure that has a complicated system due to the secluded and complex nature of factors＇ coupling. As a result, it is difficult to study the modeling and safety simulation of this system. The dynamic model of the heavy-equipment airdrop is based on the Lagrange analytical mechanics, which has all the degrees of freedom and can accurately pinpoint the real-time coordinates and attitude of the carrier with its cargo. Unfavorable conditions accounted in the factors＇ models, including aircraft malfunctions and adverse environments, are established from a man-machine-environment perspective. Subsequently, a virtual simulation system for the safety research of the multi-factor coupling heavy-equipment airdrop is developed through MATLAB/Simulink, C language and Flightgear software. To verify the veracity of the theory, the verification model is built based on dynamic software ADAMS. Finally, the emulation is put to the test with the input of realistic accident variables to ascertain its feasibility and validity of this method.     

Sensitivity Analysis for Safety Design Verification of General Aviation Reciprocating Aircraft Engine

This paper presents an application of global sensitivity analysis for system safety analysis of reciprocating aircraft engine. Compared with local sensitivity analysis results, global sensitivity analysis could provide more information on parameter interactions, which are significant in complex system safety analysis. First, a deterministic aviation reciprocating engine thermodynamics model is developed and parameters of interest are defined as random variables. Then, samples are generated by Monte Carlo method for the parameters used in engine model on the basis of definition of factor distribution. Eventually, results from engine model are generated and importance indices are calculated. Based on the analysis results, design is improved to satisfy the airworthiness requirements. The results reveal that by using global sensitivity analysis, the parameters could be ranked with respect to their importance, including first order indices and total sensitivity indices. By reducing the uncertainty of parameters and adjusting the range of inputs, safety criteria would be satisfied.     

Theory of Economic Life Prediction and Reliability Assessment of Aircraft Structures

The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has a significant effect on safety of air-craft structures.It is based on the two-stage theory of fatigue process and can guarantee the safety and reliability of structures.According to the fatigue damage process,the fatigue scatter factors of crack initiation stage and crack propagation stage are given respectively.At the same time,mathematical models of fatigue life prediction are presented by utilizing the fatigue scatter factors and full scale test results of aircraft structures.Furthermore,the economic life model is put forward.The model is of sig-nificant scientific value for products to provide longer economic life,higher reliability and lower cost.The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has been successfully applied to determining and extending the structural life for thousands of airplanes.     

A review on carrier aircraft dispatch path planning and control on deck

As an important part in sortie/recovery process, the dispatch of carrier aircraft not only affects the sortie/recovery efficiency and safety, but also has severe influence on the carrier’s combat efficiency and the comprehensive support capability. Path planning is the key to improve the efficiency and safety during the dispatch process. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive investigation of techniques and research progress for the carrier aircraft’s dispatch path planning...     

A hybrid deep neural network based on multi-time window convolutional bidirectional LSTM for civil aircraft APU hazard identification

Safety is one of the important topics in the field of civil aviation. Auxiliary Power Unit(APU) is one of important components in aircraft, which provides electrical power and compressed air for aircraft. The hazards in APU are prone to cause economic losses and even casualties. So,actively identifying the hazards in APU before an accident occurs is necessary. In this paper, a Hybrid Deep Neural Network(HDNN) based on multi-time window convolutional neural network-Bidirectional Long Short-Term M...     

航空事故人为因素多模型集成分析与控制策略

人为因素是现代航空事故最主要的致因因素,分析航空事故中人为因素的特点,进一步提出预防措施,有利于提高飞行安全水平,实现本质安全。提出多模型集成的航空事故人为因素分析与控制流程,将事故树分析方法( FTA)和人因分析及分类系统( HFACS)相结合,寻找事故的直接原因和深层次原因,全面识别航空事故中的人为因素、事故机理及事故演化过程;运用定量方法找出关键因素,针对性地提出避免由人为因素导致航空事故的策略;根据关联危害性分析法,挖掘事故的潜在不安全因素,实现主动的事故预防。     

手册对航空安全影响的初探

航空安全受到国际民航组织、各国政府及广大乘客的高度重视。随着科技的进步、航空技术的发展以及新技术新材料的应用,飞机自身和运行环境、软硬件的安全性、可靠性和经济性都日趋提高,但在解决由人为因素导致的事故方面进展缓慢,使得近20年来由于人为因素导致的飞行事故率仍居高不下。国内外对人为因素进行了大量的研究和分析,但是基于飞机手册原因造成飞行事故的研究和分析较少。拟从人为因素角度,通过对大量与手册有关的航空事故分类及对事故调查进行总结和分析,讨论手册对航空安全的影响,对手册在编制阶段的工作提出了相应的启示,旨在进一步提高手册的实用性以确保航空运营的安全。     

莱格赛 450/500 中型双发涡扇公务机

航空安全受到国际民航组织、各国政府及广大乘客的高度重视。随着科技的进步、航空技术的发展以及新技术新材料的应用,飞机自身和运行环境、软硬件的安全性、可靠性和经济性都日趋提高,但在解决由人为因素导致的事故方面进展缓慢,使得近20年来由于人为因素导致的飞行事故率仍居高不下。国内外对人为因素进行了大量的研究和分析,但是基于飞机手册原因造成飞行事故的研究和分析较少。拟从人为因素角度,通过对大量与手册有关的航空事故分类及对事故调查进行总结和分析,讨论手册对航空安全的影响,对手册在编制阶段的工作提出了相应的启示,旨在进一步提高手册的实用性以确保航空运营的安全。     

基于人为因素的航空安全模糊综合评价研究

人为因素的控制是航空安全事故预防与控制的关键,通过分析人为因素对航空安全的影响,结合各方面专家的研究成果,建立了基于人为因素的航空安全综合评价体系,利用层次分析法确定了各评价指标权重,构建了模糊综合评价模型,并对人为因素对航空安全的影响进行了综合评价,得出了影响航空安全主要人为因素的综合评价等级。研究结果表明,航空安全状态良好,可以达到飞行安全的目的。     

对多因子诱发航空事故的思考

从安全的概念出发,分析了航空事故发生的模式及特点,着重阐述了多因子诱发事故的规律,明确了航空安全管理是一个系统工程,提出了事故预测的基本思路和防范多因子诱发航空事故的基本方法。     

飞行品质和飞行安全

飞机的飞行品质和飞行安全有着密切的关系,一架飞机如果没有良好的飞行品质,它在飞行中出现飞行事故的概率就会比较高,因此,在飞机设计和试飞过程中必须按照飞行品质规范的要求来设计和验证飞机.如果发现飞机有不满足飞行品质规范要求的地方就要尽量想法改进,对飞机所存在的飞行品质缺陷必须让飞行员有充分的了解,在飞行事故分析过程中,飞行品质也是一个不可忽略的因素.     

基于STAMP/STPA的机轮刹车系统安全性分析

把机轮刹车系统在飞机降落过程中的安全性问题当作系统控制问题,不采用基于故障概率模型的事故模型,而是采用基于系统理论的事故模型和过程(STAMP),构建机轮刹车系统在飞机降落过程中的STAMP控制关联模型和系统理论过程分析(STPA)反馈控制回路。根据系统运行的上下文信息识别机轮刹车系统在飞机降落过程中的不安全控制行为,分析产生不安全控制行为的关键原因。对机轮刹车系统在飞机降落过程中的不安全控制行为进行仿真研究,结果表明了STAMP/STPA的有效性和用仿真方法分析安全性问题的可行性。     

任务复杂度对自动化意识的影响

现代飞机驾驶舱的高度自动化容易导致飞行员对自动化的自满和依赖,进而降低飞行员的自动化意识。自动化意识失效是飞机事故征候和事故的主要影响因素之一。通过研究任务复杂度对自动化意识的影响以及自动化意识失效的原因后发现,高复杂度任务下的自动化意识失效概率显著高于低复杂度任务,对自动化的注意力分配不足和自动化自满是高复杂度任务下自动化意识失效的两个主要原因。研究表明,在高负荷阶段,如果自动化失效,人难以在短期内发现自动化失效和作出有效响应。因此,增强自动化意识是维持航空安全的重要保障。     

基于贝叶斯网络的民航安全分析研究

安全在民用航空领域占有举足轻重的地位,直接影响民航企业的生存和发展。科学合理的安全分析便于及时发现民航领域存在的安全问题,预防航空事故诱发因素的萌生,提高民航安全管理的科学性和可操作性。根据民航安全的特点,建立了基于故障树的多态贝叶斯网络系统安全分析模型,综合运用诊断推理和因果推理形式,实现了定性与定量相结合的民航安全分析,通过航空灾难的实例验证了方法的有效性。在此基础上,提出采用区间型贝叶斯网络进行民航安全分析,克服了其他方法只能分析计算单点概率值的局限性,比传统的安全评估更客观,更有说服力。     

运输类飞机防止广布疲劳损伤的新规章解读

 针对运输类飞机结构广布疲劳损伤(WFD),跟踪和总结了国内外所开展的一些重要行动及其结果,客观地分析了现行的有关疲劳损伤的适航规章在执行中存在的不安全因素,指出现行的适航要求和长期依赖已有检查手段对维持飞机超出某一期限后的持续适航是不充分的,会产生不可接受的结构破坏和相关事故的危险性,需要对WFD在其发生之前采取主动的预先解决方法。对WFD检查的革新性的改变导致了针对WFD的适航条例的修正。对美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)提议的针对WFD的规章修正案草案中关于设计批准书持有人的行动及其相关的符合性方法作了分析和解读,重点阐明了新规章对WFD的适用性以及在新规章下要求的飞机WFD评定的方法和过程,包括WFD开始检查点和结构更改点的确定、飞机使用限制（初始使用限制和延伸使用限制）的建立、适航限制条款的建立和修订等。在此基础上,提出了当前乃至今后中国民机结构损伤容限设计和分析新的研究方向。