用自助加权范数法评估三参数威布尔分布可靠性最优置信区间

提出自助加权范数法,以评估三参数威布尔分布可靠性的最优置信区间.基于可靠性经验值与理论值的差异,通过6个最小加权范数准则,构建出威布尔分布的最优参数信息向量.对最优参数信息向量进行自助再抽样,获得生成参数信息向量,用于模拟参数的概率密度函数.在给定置信水平下,求解出参数的估计真值及其置信区间,并据此建立可靠性的估计真值函数及其最优置信区间函数.滚动轴承性能寿命案例、直升机部件失效案例与某试件疲劳寿命案例的研究表明:使用自助加权范数法,估计真值函数与可靠性经验值相一致,最优置信区间函数能描述试验结果的真实状态.      

基于乏信息失效数据的可靠性评估方法

基于乏信息失效数据,提出了机械产品可靠性的最大熵评估模型.根据可靠性经验值公式,获得失效数据的可靠性经验值向量,并逆推出离散失效频率向量即获得统计直方图;基于区间映射的牛顿迭代方法获得具有最大熵的概率密度函数,对其积分获得失效概率分布函数,进而得到可靠性估计真值函数.仿真案例和试验案例研究证明该方法可以很好地评估已知分布的可靠性并有效地解决只有失效数据而没有概率分布任何先验信息的可靠性评估问题.在寿命给定时,最大熵方法获得的可靠性取值与已知分布获得的可靠性取值之间的差值非常小仅为3.40%.      

小样本无失效寿命试验数据的轴承可靠性评估

针对小样本无失效寿命试验数据可靠性问题提出了评估模型。模型采用Bayes理论构造服从原始样本的抽样函数,结合Bootstrap法生成大量服从抽样函数的随机数作为增广样本,再通过最佳线性不变估计法分析原始样本及增广样本得到Weibull分布双参数估计值作为可靠性评估结果。通过Monte-Carlo法仿真生成服从Weibull分布的随机数,分别采用该模型、配分布曲线法及现有Bayes理论对此随机数做评估,对比发现:该模型得到的参数估计较现有Bayes理论和配分布曲线法更接近Weibull双参数真值,且形状参数和尺度参数估计值的相对误差均低于10%,验证了模型分析小样本无失效数据进行可靠性评估的可行性。借助文献实例对模型进行分析,对比得出模型能得到较现有Bayes理论和配分布曲线法更符合工程实际的评估结果;模型在小样本情况下的双侧可靠度置信区间长度低于现有Bayes理论和配分布曲线法,有效提高了小样本无失效数据可靠性评估精度。      

Evaluation of aileron actuator reliability with censored data

For the purpose of enhancing reliability of aileron of Airbus new-generation A350 XWB,an evaluation of aileron reliability on the basis of maintenance data is presented in this paper.Practical maintenance data contains large number of censoring samples, information uncertainty of which makes it hard to evaluate reliability of aileron actuator.Considering that true lifetime of censoring sample has identical distribution with complete sample, if censoring sample is transformed into complete sample, conversion frequency of censoring sample can be estimated according to frequency of complete sample.On the one hand, standard life table estimation and product limit method are improved on the basis of such conversion frequency, enabling accurate estimation of various censoring samples.On the other hand, by taking such frequency as one of the weight factors and integrating variance of order statistics under standard distribution, weighted least square estimation is formed for accurately estimating various censoring samples.Large amounts of experiments and simulations show that reliabilities of improved life table and improved product limit method are closer to the true value and more conservative; moreover, weighted least square estimate(WLSE), with conversion frequency of censoring sample and variances of order statistics as the weights, can still estimate accurately with high proportion of censored data in samples.Algorithm in this paper has good effect and can accurately estimate the reliability of aileron actuator even with small sample and high censoring rate.This research has certain significance in theory and engineering practice.     

SYNTHETIC STRESS LIFE TESTING OF MECHATRONIC PRODUCTS UNDER VARIABLE STRESS SPECTRUM

Mechatronic products usually endure the variable stress spectrum when they operate in certain operational condition and environmental condition, which obey the Weibull distribution. In accordance with the features of mechatronic product, this paper analyzes the failure mode, its corresponding sensitive stress and the design principles of life testing profiles. Based on the above analyses, this paper presents a synthetic stress life testing method based on the hybrid Weibull distribution and its statistical method under variable stress spectrum to evaluate the reliability and life indices of mechatronic products. Because the mechatronic products have many characteristics such as high price, long life and small testing samples, the synthetic stress life testing method under variable load spectrum can simulate the real various spectra, decrease the life testing time and reduce the testing samples. So it is effective to carry out the life testing to mechatronic products. The application results of hydraulic pumps indicate that this method can easily handle the experimental data under variable amplitude spectrum, obtain the high precision parameters point estimation and confidence interval estimation and reduce the testing cost greatly.     

基于密度权重的可靠性灵敏度分析方法简

 为了提高可靠性灵敏度求解数字模拟法的效率,提出了一种变量空间确定性低偏差均匀抽样与样本点处联合概率密度函数构造权重相结合的方法,来估计可靠性灵敏度。该方法通过均匀样本点处联合概率密度函数的权重保证了可靠性灵敏度的估计值收敛于真值,而由低偏差抽样代替原问题中的联合概率密度抽样则可以保证更低的误差阶以及在小失效概率条件下抽得的样本有更高的可能性落入失效域,从而保证了所提方法具有更高的收敛速度。另外,所提方法可以采用与独立变量相同的步骤来估计相关变量情况下的可靠性灵敏度,计算简便,适用范围广。算例充分证明了所提方法的优越性。     

基于密度权重的可靠性灵敏度分析方法

为了提高可靠性灵敏度求解数字模拟法的效率,提出了一种变量空间确定性低偏差均匀抽样与样本点处联合概率密度函数构造权重相结合的方法,来估计可靠性灵敏度。该方法通过均匀样本点处联合概率密度函数的权重保证了可靠性灵敏度的估计值收敛于真值,而由低偏差抽样代替原问题中的联合概率密度抽样则可以保证更低的误差阶以及在小失效概率条件下抽得的样本有更高的可能性落入失效域,从而保证了所提方法具有更高的收敛速度。另外,所提方法可以采用与独立变量相同的步骤来估计相关变量情况下的可靠性灵敏度,计算简便,适用范围广。算例充分证明了所提方法的优越性。     

User-level reliability monitoring in urban personal satellite-navigation

Monitoring the reliability of the obtained user position is of great importance, especially when using the global positioning system (GPS) as a standalone system. In the work presented here, we discuss reliability testing, reliability enhancement, and quality control for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning. Reliability testing usually relies on statistical tests for receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) and fault detection and exclusion (FDE). It is here extended by including an assessment of the redundancy and the geometry of the obtained user position solution. The reliability enhancement discussed here includes rejection of possible outliers, and the use of a robust estimator, namely a modified Danish method. We draw special attention to navigation applications in degraded signal-environments such as indoors where typically multiple errors occur simultaneously. The results of applying the discussed methods to high-sensitivity GPS data from an indoor experiment demonstrate that weighted estimation, FDE, and quality control yield a significant improvement in reliability and accuracy. The accuracy actually obtained was by 40% better than with equal weights and no FDE; the rms value of horizontal errors was reduced from 15 m to 9 m, and the maximum horizontal errors were largely reduced.     

某型固体火箭发动机的可靠性增长分析

对某型固体火箭发动机的可靠性增长进行了统计检验，在可靠性增长的基础上，用二项分布阶段可靠性增长的Bayes方法评定了该机的可靠性下限。结果表明，可靠性增长方法能充分利用信息，并可节省大量试验样本。     

Estimation of radar detection and false alarm probability

The accuracy with which detection and false alarm probabilities can be estimated with a limited amount of measured radar data is addressed. A simple simulation method for estimating the statistical performance of a radar detection system is presented. Confidence limits and a rule of thumb for accuracy for the estimated probabilities are presented along with procedures for calculating them. It is concluded that the minimum value of N used in a detection radar signal simulation should be 10/P_FA when the simple simulation method is used, where P_FA is the probability of false alarm, and that a value closer to 100/P _FA is preferable     

航空铁磁材料磁记忆检测新方法

 为提高现有磁记忆检测方法的可靠性,充分考虑各向磁记忆信号分量特征,提出法向和切向相结合的磁记忆检测新方法,对航空铁磁材料18CrNi4A试件在不同拉伸载荷下同时采集法向和切向两个方向上的磁记忆信号,并对信号进行小波包滤波处理后取李萨如图,用图中封闭区域出现的位置判断应力集中部位,用封闭区域面积的大小判断应力集中程度,研究磁记忆信号法向分量和切向分量联合检测材料的应力状态。结果表明:对该材料试件磁记忆信号法向分量和切向分量进行小波包降噪方法切实可行,处于应力集中试件的磁记忆信号反映在李萨如图上会出现封闭区域,并且随着应力集中程度的增大,李萨如图上封闭区域的面积有增大趋势,材料出现明显屈服后,面积增大得更加明显。该方法具有一定的工程实际应用价值。     

小子样场合下估算母体百分位值置信下限和可靠度置信下限的Bootstrap方法

将Bootstrap方法引入到小子样场合下母体百分位值置信下限的计算中,并与传统的单侧容限系数法和新单侧容限系数法进行了大量的对比计算,算例表明Bootstrap方法明显优于其他两种方法,在较高可靠度和置信度要求下母体百分位值置信下限不会出现负值的情况,而且计算得到的结果更接近真值。发展了一种半参数Bootstrap方法用于计算可靠度的置信下限,模拟计算表明半参数Bootstrap方法很好地克服了置信度较高时,新旧单侧容限系数计算出的可靠度置信下限过低的局限性,而且半参数Bootstrap方法的计算结果均有较高的精度。     

通用EIFS分布确定方法改进研究

基于概率断裂力学的基本假设和原理,提出一种改进的通用EIFS分布确定方法。新方法用小裂纹扩展曲线计算多种参考裂纹尺寸水平下的TTCI值,并对其进行极大似然估计。然后利用约束最小二乘法确定不同应力下的裂纹扩展参数和通用EIFS分布上限。在此基础上,根据分布参数的通用性条件确定通用EIFS分布参数。与改进前的方法相比,新方法充分利用分布函数和裂纹扩展提供的信息,提高参数估计的合理性和可靠性。对某零件的原始疲劳质量分析证明改进方法是可行的,便于工程应用。     

Detail fatigue rating method based on bimodal Weibull distribution for DED Ti-6.5Al-2Zr-1Mo-1V titanium alloy

Previous studies have shown that the fatigue life distribution of metal materials fabricated with Additive Manufacturing(AM) methods, such as Direct Energy Deposited(DED) Ti-6.5Al-2Zr-1Mo-1V alloys, exhibits two peaks. To promote the application of AM in aerospace and other engineering fields, developing a fatigue strength evaluation method suitable for AM materials based on their unique fatigue behaviours and fatigue life distributions is necessary. In this paper, a novel Detail Fatigue Rating(...     

Investigation on Thermal Contact Conductance Based on Data Analysis Method of Reliability

The method of reliability is proposed for the investigation of thermal contact conductance (TCC) in this study. A new definition is introduced, namely reliability thermal contact conductance (RTCC), which is defined as the TCC value that meets the reliability design requirement of the structural materials under consideration. An experimental apparatus with the compensation heater to test the TCC is introduced here. A practical engineering example is utilized to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. By using a statistical regression model along with experimental data obtained from the interfaces of the structural materials GH4169 and K417 used in aero-engine, the estimate values and the confidence level of TCC and RTCC values are studied and compared. The results show that the testing values of TCC increase with interface pressure and the proposed RTCC model matches the test results better at high interface pressure.     

A serialized civil aircraft R&D cost estimation model considering commonality based on BP algorithm

The common design of serial civil aircraft, an important strategy of modern civil aircraft research and develop-ment, minimizes the whole life cycle cost of civil aircraft through asset reuse and resource sharing. However, the existing estimating model for the R&D cost of civil aircraft ignores the effects of common design, so the value estimated by estimating derivative models is significantly inconsistent with the actual one. To solve this problem, a novel assessment method for civil aircr...     

Comparison of signal estimation using calibrated and uncalibrated arrays

We consider the problem of separating and estimating the waveform of superimposed signals received by an array of sensors. If the array is well calibrated it is possible to first estimate the directions of arrival (DOA) of the signals and then use this information to separate the signals. When the array is not calibrated, but the array elements have the same unknown gain pattern, up to an unknown multiplicative factor and the phases of the elements are arbitrary and unknown, it is possible to estimate the array steering vectors and then use this information for signal estimation. We compare the quality of the estimated signals in the calibrated case with the quality of the estimated signals in the uncalibrated case, in terms of the output signal-to-interference ratio (SIRO) and output signal-to-noise ratio (SNRO).     

过驱动轮控卫星的动态控制分配方法

反作用飞轮在卫星姿态控制中具有重要作用,配置3个以上飞轮的卫星构成一类过驱动系统,能够提高姿态控制系统的可靠性.针对期望控制力矩到冗余飞轮的指令分配问题,提出了一种基于伪逆法的动态控制分配方法,并针对传统伪逆法难以考虑飞轮最大力矩等物理约束问题,采用零空间方法对传统伪逆法给出的分配结果进行了修正.基于稳定控制模式下姿态...     

基于灰关联层次分析法的无人机自修复控制策略评价

结合层次分析法(AHP)和灰关联度分析(GRA)法的优点,提出了一种灰关联层次分析(GRAH)综合评价方法,用于对无人机自修复控制策略进行评价。划分了无人机自修复控制策略的自修复等级,并与综合评价值统一起来,解决了不同自修复策略的修复效果评价标准问题;建立了自修复策略的评价指标体系,并给出了各指标的定义和计算公式;为了降低算法的复杂性,把一致性检验问题转化为一般的统计假设检验问题;构造了多专家判断矩阵和灰关联度矩阵,并给出了完整的GRAH评价模型。仿真结果表明,本文提出的GRAH综合评价法具有满意的准确性和可靠性。     

Time-varying autoregressive modeling of HRR radar signatures

A time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) model is used for the modeling and classification of high range resolution (HRR) radar signatures. In this approach, the TVAR coefficients are expanded by a low-order discrete Fourier transform (DFT). A least-squares (LS) estimator of the TVAR model parameters is presented, and the maximum likelihood (ML) approach for determining the model order is also presented. The validity of the TVAR modeling approach is demonstrated by comparing with other approaches in estimating time-varying spectra of synthetic signals. The estimated TVAR model parameters are also used as features in classifying HRR radar signatures with a neural network. In the experiment with two sets of noncooperating target identification (NCTI) data, about 93% of samples are correctly classified