Radiation risk estimation and its application to human beings in space.

The number of human beings likely to spend time in space will increase as time goes on. While exposures vary according to missions, orbits, shielding, etc., an average space radiation fluence (ignoring solar flares, radiation belts and anomalous regions in space) in locations close to earth is about 10 rad/year with a quality factor of about 5.5. The potential effects of exposure to these fluences include both non-stochastic effects and stochastic effects (cancer and genetic damage). Non-stochastic effects, damage to the lens of the eye, bone marrow or gonads, can be avoided by keeping radiation limits below threshold values. Stochastic effects imply risk at all levels. The magnitude of these risks has been discussed in a number of reports by the UNSCEAR Committee and the BEIR Committee in the USA during 1970-1980. The uncertainties associated with these risks and information which has become available since the last BEIR report is discussed. In considering reasonable limits for exposure in space, acceptable levels for stochastic risks must be based on appropriate comparisons. In view of the limited term of duty of most space workers, a lifetime limit may be appropriate. This lifetime limit might be comparable in terms of risks with limits for radiation workers on the ground but received at a higher annual rate for a shorter time. These and other approaches are expected to be considered by an NCRP Committee currently examining the problem of space radiation hazards.     

Radiation hazards on space missions outside the magnetosphere.

Future space missions outside the magnetosphere will subject astronauts to a hostile and unfamiliar radiation environment. An annual dose equivalent to the blood-forming organs (BFOs) of approximately 0.5 Sv is expected, mostly from heavy ions in the galactic cosmic radiation. On long-duration missions, an anomalously-large solar energetic particle event may occur. Such an event can expose astronauts to up to approximately 25 Gy (skin dose) and up to approximately 2 Sv (BFO dose) with no shielding. The anticipated radiation exposure may necessitate spacecraft design concessions and some restriction of mission activities. In this paper we discuss our model calculations of radiation doses in several exo-magnetospheric environments. Specific radiation shielding strategies are discussed. A new calculation of aluminum equivalents of potential spacecraft shielding materials demonstrates the importance of low-atomic-mass species for protection from galactic cosmic radiation.     

Radiation risk and human space exploration.

Radiation protection is essential to enable humans to live and work safely in space. Predictions about the nature and magnitude of the risks posed by space radiation are subject to very large uncertainties. Prudent use of worst-case scenarios may impose unacceptable constraints on shielding mass for spacecraft or habitats, tours of duty of crews on Space Station, and on the radius and duration of sorties on planetary surfaces. The NASA Space Radiation Health Program has been devised to develop the knowledge required to accurately predict and to efficiently manage radiation risk. The knowledge will be acquired by means of a peer-reviewed, largely ground-based and investigator-initiated, basic science research program. The NASA Strategic Plan to accomplish these objectives in a manner consistent with the high priority assigned to the protection and health maintenance of crews will be presented.     

Radiation environment monitoring for manned missions to Mars.

In this paper a radiation monitoring system for manned Mars missions is described, based on the most recent requirements on crew radiation safety. A comparison is shown between the radiation monitoring systems for Earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft, with similarities and differences pointed out and discussed. An operational and technological sketch of the chosen problem solving approach is also given.     

Mathematical model for assessment of radiation risk on long space missions.

A mathematical model is developed which describes the dynamics of radiation-induced mortality in mammalian populations. It relates statistical biometric functions with statistical characteristics and dynamics of an organism's critical system. In the framework of the model the effects of low and very low dose rates of chronic radiation on mice are simulated. Respectively, thrombocytopoietic and granulocytopoietic systems are considered as the critical ones. To calculate the dynamics of these systems, mathematical models are applied, too. In accordance with experimental data, the mortality model reproduces on quantitative level both increased and decreased mortality rates in populations of LAF1 mice, which were chronically exposed, respectively, to low and very low level radiation. All this makes it feasible to use the model as a basis for risk assessments of low level long-term irradiation.     

Radiation analysis for manned missions to the Jupiter system.

An analysis for manned missions targeted to the Jovian system has been performed in the framework of the NASA RASC (Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts) program on Human Exploration beyond Mars. The missions were targeted to the Jupiter satellite Callisto. The mission analysis has been divided into three main phases, namely the interplanetary cruise, the Jupiter orbital insertion, and the surface landing and exploration phases. The interplanetary phase is based on departure from the Earth-Moon L1 point. Interplanetary trajectories based on the use of different propulsion systems have been considered, with resulting overall cruise phase duration varying between two and five years. The Jupiter-approach and the orbital insertion trajectories are considered in detail, with the spacecraft crossing the Jupiter radiation belts and staying around the landing target. In the surface exploration phase the stay on the Callisto surface is considered. The satellite surface composition has been modeled based on the most recent results from the GALILEO spacecraft. In the transport computations the surface backscattering has been duly taken into account. Particle transport has been performed with the HZETRN heavy ion code for hadrons and with an in-house developed transport code for electrons and bremsstrahlung photons. The obtained doses have been compared to dose exposure limits.     

Results of dosimetric measurements in space missions.

Detector packages consisting of plastic nuclear track detectors, nuclear emulsions, and theromoluminescence detectors were exposed at different locations inside the space laboratory Spacelab and at the astronauts' body and in different sections of the MIR space station. Total dose, particle fluence rate and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra of heavy ions, number of nuclear disintegrations and fast neutron fluence rates were determined of each exposure. The dose equivalent received by the Payload specialists (PSs) were calculated from the measurements, they range from 190 microSv d-1 to 770 microSv d-1. Finally, a preliminary investigation of results from a particle telescope of two silicon detectors, first used in the last BIORACK mission on STS 76, is reported.     

Contribution of secondaries to the radiation environment on space missions.

Calculations to predict the radiation environment for spacecraft in low earth orbit sometimes ignore the contribution from secondary radiation products. However, the contribution of secondaries, particularly neutrons, on heavy spacecraft or in planetary bodies can be of concern for biological systems. The Shuttle Activation Monitor (SAM) and Cosmic Radiation Effects and Activation Monitor (CREAM) experiments provide valuable data on secondary (as well as primary) radiation effects. Comparisons have been made between induced activity from flight-exposed samples, induced activity in a ground-irradiated sample, and Monte Carlo-derived predictions with and without secondaries. These comparisons show that for a flight-exposed sample, predictions which omit the secondary contribution result in a spectrum that is too low by a factor of 2. The addition of the secondaries results in a predicted spectrum that closely matches the measured data.     

An attempt to determine the ideal psychological profiles for crews of long term space missions.

This paper reviews possible psychological criteria for selection at individual level (personality, psychological stability, competence, social skills) as well as at crew level (crew size, gender, compatability, group homeostasis). Once astronauts have been selected an important effort will have to be made pre-flight to prepare the crew to the autonomy necessary for a Mars trip. During the mission psychological support will be important, but probably limited by the mission constraints. At this stage, mission success will probably rely mainly on the capacity of the crew to prevent and manage crises internally. Post-flight psychological support is necessary to help astronauts to readapt to a normal way of life on Earth.     

Radiation biology in space: a critical review.

A short summary of the results of radiobiological studies in space or on respective particles on ground will be given. Among the various types of radiation in space, the effect of heavy ions with high energy (HZE-particles) are most essential. Thus, radiobiology in space concerns mostly to the effect of these particles, in cells and in whole organism. Cell death, mutation and malignant transformation are the relevant endpoints, with can be studied on ground with heavy ions of different energy with suitable accelerators or in space, especially by the BIOSTACK concept. In space, however, the effect of microgravity has to be considered as well and there are hints, that under weightlessness the biological effect of radiation may be enhanced. There are still open questions to be answered concerning radioprotection of man in space. Further experiments are necessary.     

Radiation exposures during space flight and their measurement.

The paper reviews radiation exposures recorded during space flights of the US and USSR. Most of the data are from manned missions and include discussion of absorbed dose and dose rates as a function of parameters such as altitude, inclination, spacecraft type and shielding. Preliminary data exist on the neutron and HZE-particle component, as well as the LET spectra. For low Earth-orbit missions, the dose encountered is strongly altitude-dependent, with a weaker dependence upon inclination. The doses range from about 6 millirad per day for the Space Transportation System No. 3 flight to about 90 mrad per day for Skylab. The effective quality factor (QF) for the near-Earth orbits and free space has been estimated to be about 1.5 and about 5.5 respectively. Complete shielding from the galactic cosmic rays does not appear practical because of spacecraft weight limitations.     

A parametric study of space radiation exposures to critical body organs for low earth orbit missions.

The geomagnetically-trapped and galactic cosmic radiation environments are two of the major sources of naturally-occurring space radiation exposure to astronauts in low earth orbit. The exposure is dependent primarily on altitude, spacecraft shielding, crew stay-times, and solar cycle effects for a 28.5 deg orbital inclination. Based on Space Shuttle experience, the calculated results of a parametric study are presented for several mission scenarios using a computerized anatomical man model and are compared with the NASA crew exposure limits for several critical body organs.     

Radiation risk during long-term spaceflight.

Cosmonauts' exposure to cosmic rays during long-term spaceflight can cause unfavorable effects in health and risk for the crew members' lives. All unfavorable effects induced by exposure should be taken into consideration for the risk estimation. They should include both the acute deterministic effects and delayed effects called stochastic. On the ground the limitation of unfavorable consequences of acute exposure is achieved by means of establishing dose limits. But in space applications this approach can't be acceptable. Establishing a fixed dose limit is adequate to introducing indefinite reserve coefficient and therefore ineffective usage of spacecraft resource. The method of radiation risk calculation caused by acute and delayed effects of cosmonauts' exposure is discussed and substantiated in the report. Peculiarities of the impact of permanent radiation sources (galactic cosmic rays and trapped radiation) and the variable one (solar cosmic rays) are taken into consideration.     

Planetary protection policy overview and application to future missions.

The 1967 treaty on the peaceful uses of outer space reflected both concerns associated with the unknown nature of the space environment and the desire of the world scientific community to preserve the pristine nature of celestial objects until such times as they could be studied in an effective manner. Since 1967, NASA has issued policy directives that have adopted the guidelines of COSPAR for protecting the planets from contamination by Earth organisms and for protecting the Earth from the unknown. This paper presents the current status of planetary protection (quarantine) policy within NASA, and a prospectus on how planetary protection and back contamination issues might be addressed in relation to future missions envisioned for development by NASA either independently, or in cooperation with the space agencies of other nations.     

Radiation safety standards: space hazards vs. terrestrial hazards.

The standards currently recommended for use in space travel were perhaps the first risk derived recommendations for dose limitations developed for quasi-occupational circumstances. They were based on data, considerations, and philosophy existing prior to 1970 and considered carcinogenesis primarily. In the intervening twelve years, not only has radiation risk information improved markedly but considerations relating to risk in general have become better known. The earlier recommendations have been examined with respect to changes in risk estimation and it is noted that the same philosophy used today, would probably lead to different dose limitations. However, other philosophies might be used; in particular a comparison of risks between terrestrial occupational radiation circumstances and also with fatal accident rates in a range of industries can be made and might be used in a modified philosophy with respect to risks from carcinogenesis. Developments have also taken place with respect to the knowledge of the biological effects of HZE particles but whether these effects are limiting as compared with radiation induced carcinogenesis is not yet clear. More studies on the effects of HZE particles, now becoming available, are needed. It is recommended that an in depth reexamination be undertaken of the biological effectiveness of space radiations and the philosophy of dose limitations in comparison with other risks.     

Biomonitoring and risk assessment on earth and during exploratory missions using AquaHab

Bioregenerative closed ecological life support systems (CELSS) will be necessary in the exploration context revitalizing atmosphere, waste water and producing food for the human CELSS mates. During these long-term space travels and stays far away from Earth in an hostile environment as well as far for example from any hospital and surgery potential, it will be necessary to know much more about chemical and drug contamination in the special sense and by human’s themselves in detail.     

Cataract analysis and the assessment of radiation risk in space.

Radiation cataract, a non-stochastic effect on the lens, is readily amenable to non-invasive analysis. Thus, it provides the means to assess radiation risk in space and for long-term monitoring of those who frequent that environment. The importance of such evaluations are underscored by the uncertainties associated with the assignment of quality factors for the effects of heavy charged particles constituting cosmic and solar radiation. Experimental studies were conducted using albino rats to evaluate the cataractogenic potential of 570 MeV/amu Argon ions administered as both single and protracted doses. The cataract studies and investigations of quantitative cytopathological changes associated with them indicate that as the dose of heavy particles decreases, the relative biological effectiveness, compared to X rays, increases. Fractionating the exposures not only failed to reduce the cataractogenic effect but caused a dose-dependent enhancement in the time of onset of opacification. Cytopathologically, the damage caused by heavy particles, when compared to low-LET radiation was found to be quantitatively dissimilar but qualitatively identical. In addition, damage which might be consistent with microlesions was not evident. The data indicates that as regards the cataractogenic potential of heavy particles at low doses an assignment of a Quality Factor (QF) of at least 40 may be in order.     

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment.

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.     

Long-term modulation of Galactic Cosmic Radiation and its model for space exploration.

As the human exploration of space has received new attention in the United States, studies find that exposure to space radiation could adversely impact the mission design. Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR), with its very wide range of charges and energies, is particularly important for a mission to Mars, because it imposes a stiff mass penalty for spacecraft shielding. Dose equivalent versus shielding thickness calculations, show a rapid initial drop in exposure with thickness, but an asymptotic behavior at a higher shielding thickness. Uncertainties in the radiobiology are largely unknown. For a fixed radiation risk, this leads to large uncertain ties in shielding thickness for small uncertainties in estimated dose. In this paper we investigate the application of steady-state, spherically-symmetric diffusion-convection theory of solar modulation to individual measurements of differential energy spectra from 1954 to 1989 in order to estimate the diffusion coefficient, kappa (r,t), as a function of time. We have correlated the diffusion coefficient to the Climax neutron monitor rates and show that, if the diffusion coefficient can be separated into independent functions of space and time: kappa (-r,t)=K(t)kappa 0 beta P kappa 1(r), where beta is the particle velocity and P the rigidity, then (i) The time dependent quantity 1/K(t), which is proportional to the deceleration potential, phi(r,t), is linearly related to the Climax neutron monitor counting rate. (ii) The coefficients obtained from hydrogen or helium intensity measurements are the same. (iii) There are different correlation functions for odd and even solar cycles. (iv) The correlation function for the Climax neutron monitor counting rate for given time, t, can be used to estimate mean deceleration parameter phi(t) to within +/- 15% with 90% confidence. We have shown that kappa(r,t) determined from hydrogen and/or helium data, can be used to fit the oxygen and iron differential energy spectra with a root mean square error of about +/- 10%, and essentially independent of the particle charge or energy. We have also examined the ion chamber and 14C measurements which allow the analysis to be extended from the year 1906 to 1990. Using this model we have defined reference GCR spectra at solar minimum and solar maximum. These can be used for space exploration studies and provide a quantitative estimate of the error in dose due to changes in GCR intensities.