Study on solar sources and polar cap absorption events recorded in Antarctica

Particularly intense events occurred on the Sun in a period around minimum of solar activity during cycle 23. We investigated the characteristics of September 2005 and December 2006 events and the properties of the correlated observations of ionospheric absorption, obtained by a 30 MHz riometer installed at Mario Zucchelli Station (MZS-Antarctica), and of geomagnetic activity recorded at Scott Base (Antarctica). Solar events are studied using the characteristics of CMEs measured with SoHO/LASCO coronagraphs and the temporal evolution of solar energetic protons in different energy ranges measured by GOES 11 spacecraft.     

Solar cycles: A tutorial

The Sun is the nearest stellar and astrophysical laboratory, available for detailed studies in several fields of physics and astronomy. It is a sphere of hot gas with a complex and highly variable magnetic field which plays a very important role. The Sun shows an unprecedented wealth of phenomena that can be studied extensively and to the greatest detail, in a way we will never be in a position to study in other stars. Humans have studied the Sun for millennia and after the discovery of the telescope they realized that the Sun varies with time, i.e., solar activity is highly variable, in tune scales of millennia to seconds. The study of these variabilities helps us to understand how the Sun works and how it affects the interplanetary medium, Earth and the other planets. Solar power varies substantially and greatly affects the Earth and humans. Solar activity has several important periodicities, and quasi-periodicities. Knowledge of these periodicities helps us to forecast, to an extent, solar events that affect our planet. The most prominent periodicity of solar activity is the one of 11 years. The actual period is in fact 22 years because the magnetic field polarity of the Sun has to be taken into account. The Sun can be considered as a non-linear RLC electric circuit with a period of 22 years. The RLC equivalent circuit of the Sun is a van der Pol oscillator and such a model can explain many solar phenomena, including the variability of solar energy with time. Other quasi-periodicities such as the ones of 154 days, the 1.3, 1.7 to 2 years, etc., some of which might be harmonics of the 22 year cycle are also present in solar activity, and their study is very interesting and important since they affect the Earth and human activities. The period of 27 days related to solar rotation plays also a very important role in geophysical phenomena. It is noticeable that almost all periodicities are highly variable with time as wavelet analysis reveals. It is very important for humans to be in a position to forecast solar activity during the next hour, day, year, decade and century, because solar phenomena affect life on Earth and such predictions will help politicians and policy makers to better serve their countries and our planet.     

太阳风对流效应对CME渡越时间的影响

基于Gopalswamy预报日冕物质抛射（CME）渡越时间的经验模型,选取1996-2007年间52个与地磁效应Dst<-50nT相关的CME事件以及10个引起特大磁暴（Dst<-200nT）的CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风观测资料,分析背景太阳风对流效应对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报的影响.对于52个CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由16.5h降为11.4h,修正后的误差分布趋向于高斯分布,并且68%事件的预报误差小于15h.对于10个引起特大磁暴的CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由10.6h降低到6.5h,其中6个事件的预报误差小于5h.研究结果表明,对于CME事件,考虑背景太阳风对流效应的影响可以降低预报CME渡越时间的标准偏差,说明太阳风对流效应对预报CME事件渡越时间具有重要作用.      

Solar origin of near-relativistic impulsiveelectron events

There is increasing evidence suggesting that coronal acceleration supplies at least part of the particles observed during solar energetic particle events, yet coronal processes tend to be mostly disregarded in these studies. This is often due to the fact that the coronal restructuring in the early development of the associated flare and/or coronal mass ejection event is extremely fast (on the order of a few minutes) and can encompass most of the solar disk, thus requiring a full disk solar imager with very high time-cadence, and wide spectral coverage. An important subset of the energetic particle events are the near-relativistic impulsive electron events detected near Earth: their onsets can be traced back to a release time in the low corona with accuracies on the order of a couple of minutes. We investigate a series of impulsive electron events from 1998 to 2001 using energetic electron data measured in situ by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) experiment on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft, and radio coronal observations from the Nanqay Radioheliograph, the Decametric Array from Nanqay and the WAVES experiment on the WIND spacecraft. EPAM measures electrons in the energy range from 40 to 300 keV over a wide range of look directions and with better than 1 minute time resolution, while the Nançay radioheliograph provides images of the solar corona at 5 different frequencies with time cadence of 8 images per second and per frequency. This study focuses on the events which correspond to a delay, between the inferred injection times of the electrons at the Sun, and the electromagnetic emissions from flares, of at least 5 minutes. Radio signatures are found near the estimated time of the electron release for each of the events. The timing and spectral characteristics of the radio emissions, when compared with the properties of the particles seen at EPAM, strongly support an acceleration process in the corona but at highly variable heights from one event to the other.     

Unexpected burst of solar activity recorded by neutron monitors during October–November 2003

During the extreme burst of solar activity in October–November 2003, a series of outstanding events distinguished by their magnitude and peculiarities were recorded by the ground based neutron monitor network. The biggest and most productive in 23rd solar cycle active region 486 generated the most significant series of solar flares among of which the flare X28/3B on November 4, 2003 was the mostly powerful over the history of X-ray solar observations. The fastest arrival of the interplanetary disturbance from the Sun after the flare event in August 1972 and the highest solar wind velocity and IMF intensity were observed during these events. In one-week period three ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays were recorded by neutron monitor network (28, 29 October and 2 November 2003). Maximum proton energy in these events seems to be ranged from 5 to 10 GeV. Joint analysis of data from ground level stations (neutron monitors) and satellite measurements allows the estimation of the particle path length, the onset time of the injection on the Sun and some other proton flux characteristics.     

Quiet sun XUV and EUV spectroscopy

The two XUV–EUV spectrometers on SOHO have collected a large amount of data in the 6000–10⁶ K solar plasma temperature range. These data have allowed us to greatly enhance our knowledge of the processes acting in the solar atmosphere, from the chromosphere to the corona. Some results on the quiet Sun structure (network, quiet Sun versus coronal hole), on the dynamics (velocities, waves, transient events), and the main characteristics of the quiet Sun atmosphere are presented and discussed.     

1991年太阳L260°活动概况及其射电的特征

本文介绍了太阳L260°活动概况,并计算了黑子群的位置漂移及对应的射电缓变源.北京天文台2.84GHz射电望远镜在该活动区观测到8次特大的射电爆发(流量超过1000s.f.u.),其中4次(1991年5月16日,6月9日,6月11日,8月25日)射电爆发时变曲线十分相似而且这些微波爆发都与Ⅱ型Ⅲ型Ⅳ型米波爆发有良好的对应.可能说明该活动区所对应的日冕在长时间内存在一种磁场位形结构,这种磁场位形结构容易产生日冕物质抛射.      

Solar extreme events 2005–2006: Effects on near-Earth space systems and interplanetary systems

Extreme events are defined as those events in which the characteristics (e.g. field strength, speed, intensity of radiation, energies) of the associated phenomena (e.g. solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar proton events) are some orders of magnitude larger than in other events. Such strong events commonly occur about two years before and after sunspot maximum and some strong events occur as well in the declining phase before the solar activity minimum [Bothmer V., Zhukov A. The 11 Sun as the prime source of space weather, in: Bothmer, V., Daglis, I. (Eds.), Space Weather: Physics and Effects, Springer Praxis Books, 12 pp. 438, 2007]. In the first part of the paper the characteristics of the Jan. 2005 and Dec. 2006 events are given. This is followed by a presentation of the effects that were encountered on technological systems and also addresses the issue of what could have occurred on biological systems during such events. The second part of the paper deals with how one should go about analyzing solar extreme events - as part of the global distribution of all events or as ”outliers” with their own special characteristics.     

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

On statistical relationship of solar, geomagnetic and human activities.

Data of galactic cosmic rays, solar and geomagnetic activities and solar wind parameters on the one side and car accident events (CAE) in Poland on the other have been analyzed in order to reveal the statistical relationships among them for the period of 1990-2001. Cross correlation and cross spectrum of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, the solar wind (SW) velocity, Kp index of geomagnetic activity and CAE in Poland have been carried out. It is shown that in some epochs of the above-mentioned period there is found a reliable relationship between CAE and solar and geomagnetic activities parameters in the range of the different periodicities, especially, 7 days. The periodicity of 7 days revealed in the data of the CAE has the maximum on Friday without any exception for the minimum and maximum epochs of solar activity. However, the periodicity of 7 days is reliably revealed in other parameters characterizing galactic cosmic rays, SW, solar and geomagnetic activities, especially for the minimum epoch of solar activity. The periodicity of 3.5 days found in the series of CAE data more or less can be completely ascribed to the social effects, while the periodicity of 7 days can be ascribed to the social effect or/to the processes on the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in the Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere.     

Decay rate of the second radiation belt.

Variations in the Earth's trapped (Van Allen) belts produced by solar flare particle events are not well understood. Few observations of increases in particle populations have been reported. This is particularly true for effects in low Earth orbit, where manned spaceflights are conducted. This paper reports the existence of a second proton belt and it's subsequent decay as measured by a tissue-equivalent proportional counter and a particle spectrometer on five Space Shuttle flights covering an eighteen-month period. The creation of this second belt is attributed to the injection of particles from a solar particle event which occurred at 2246 UT, March 22, 1991. Comparisons with observations onboard the Russian Mir space station and other unmanned satellites are made. Shuttle measurements and data from other spacecraft are used to determine that the e-folding time of the peak of the second proton belt. It was ten months. Proton populations in the second belt returned to values of quiescent times within eighteen months. The increase in absorbed dose attributed to protons in the second belt was approximately 20%. Passive dosimeter measurements were in good agreement with this value.     

太阳质子通量模型研究

太阳质子事件对航天活动构成重要威胁, 预测一定时期内太阳质子通量对航天器抗辐射加固设计有重要的指导意义. 在第20至23太阳活动周的太阳质子事件数据统计分析的基础上, 建立了一个针对 E>10 MeV和 E>30 MeV太阳质子通量的新模型. 新模型与目前航天工程中常用的JPL模型相比较, 引入了太阳活动性对质子事件发生概率的影响因素, 能够评估不同太阳活动水平下的质子通量, 其结果更符合质子事件的分布特征.      

Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks

We are developing a system to predict the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at the Earth. These events are routinely detected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA’s ACE spacecraft, which is positioned at Lagrange Point 1 (L1). In this work, we use historical EPAM data to train an IP shock forecasting algorithm. Our approach centers on the observation that these shocks are often preceded by identifiable signatures in the energetic particle intensity data. Using EPAM data, we trained an artificial neural network to predict the time remaining until the shock arrival. After training this algorithm on 37 events, it was able to forecast the arrival time for 19 previously unseen events. The average uncertainty in the prediction 24 h in advance was 8.9 h, while the uncertainty improved to 4.6 h when the event was 12 h away. This system is accessible online, where it provides predictions of shock arrival times using real-time EPAM data.     

The gas pixel detector as a solar X-ray polarimeter and imager

The Sun is the nearest astrophysical source with a very intense emission in the X-ray band. The study of energetic events, such as solar flares, can help us to understand the behaviour of the magnetic field of our star. There are in the literature numerous studies published about polarization predictions, for a wide range of solar flares models involving the emission from thermal and/or non-thermal processes, but observations in the X-ray band have never been exhaustive.The gas pixel detector (GPD) was designed to achieve X-ray polarimetric measurements as well as X-ray images for far astrophysical sources. Here we present the possibility to employ this instrument for the observation of our Sun in the X-ray band.     

Temporal profiles of solar energetic particle events from SOHO/EPHIN data

Temporal profiles of energetic ions and electrons observed at 1 AU during solar energetic particle events are mainly determined by particle injection features, the observer location relative to the source region at the Sun, and the interplanetary space plasma and field conditions during particle transport. In this work, temporal profiles of 18 solar energetic particle events have been analyzed by fitting a pulse function to them in order to find a set of parameters which can be used to characterize the events.     

Statistical analyses of influence of solar and geomagnetic activities on car accident events.

Statistical analyses of the influence of Solar and geomagnetic activity, sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and galactic cosmic ray Forbush effects on car accident events in Poland for the period of 1990-1999 have been carried out. Using auto-correlation, cross-correlation, spectral analyses and superposition epochs methods it has been shown that there are separate periods when car accident events have direct correlation with Ap index of the geomagnetic activity, sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays. Nevertheless, the single-valued direct correlation is not possible to reveal for the whole period of 1990-1999. Periodicity of 7 days and its second harmonic (3.5 days) has been reliably revealed in the car accident events data in Poland for the each year of the period 1990-1999. It is shown that the maximum car accident events take place in Poland on Friday and practically does not depend on the level of solar and geomagnetic activities.     

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

The connection between space weather and Single Event Upsets in polar low earth orbit satellites

Space weather is driven and modulated by the activity in the Sun. Space weather events have the potential to inflict critical damage to space systems. Nowadays, space assets are essential in our basic needs, such as communications, cell phone networks, navigation systems, television and internet. Hence, understanding space weather dynamics and its effects on spacecraft is crucial for satellites engineers and satellite operators, in order to prevent and mitigate its impacts.In the last decade our Sun has erupted several times causing dozens of space weather events. Some of these led to satellite malfunctions and outages lasting from mere hours, up to days and weeks. This research is focused on two different space weather events, March 7–8, 2012, and September 6–10, 2017, that occurred during the last ten years and caused satellite anomalies that are related to an increase in the single event upsets rate. Single event upset is a bit flip in a memory device due to high energy particle interaction with the device sensitive volume. During these two periods, Eros B, a low Earth orbiting polar satellite detected an increased rate of single event upsets on two of its processing computers when the high energy proton flux was elevated. On both occasions X-class flares were detected, and the increased single event upsets count rate in Eros B took place only after the 100 MeV protons flux was three orders of magnitude above the background levels. In this research, Israeli satellite anomalies that were detected are first demonstrated.     

On the early phase of relativistic solar particle events: Are there signatures of acceleration mechanism?

Many physical processes precede and accompany the solar energetic particles (SEP) occurrence on the Earth’s orbit. Explosive energy release on the Sun gives rise to a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME). X-ray and gamma emissions are believed to be connected with flares. Radio emission is signature of disturbances traveling through the corona and interplanetary space. Particles can gain energy both in the flare and the accompanying wave processes. The beginning of the SEP events has the advantage of being the phase most close to the time of acceleration. Influence of interplanetary transport is minimal in the case of first arriving relativistic solar protons recorded by ground based neutron monitors in so called ground-level enhancements (GLE). The early phase of the SEP events attracts attention of many scientists searching for the understanding of particle acceleration. However, they come to the opposite conclusions. While some authors find arguments for coronal mass ejections as a sole accelerator of SEPs, others prove a flare to be the SEP origin. Here, the circumstances of SEP generation for several GLEs of the 23rd solar cycle are considered. Timing of X-ray, CME, and radio emissions shows a great variety from event to event. However, the time of particle ejection from the Sun is closer to maximum of X-ray emission than to any other phenomena considered. No correlation is found between the particle fluxes and the CME characteristics.