PC-index fluctuations and intermittency of the magnetospheric dynamics

One minute resolution Polar Cap (PC) index was used for the analysis of magnetospheric dynamics. The 1995–2000 time series analysis revealed that the power spectrum of the PC-index fluctuations is a power law in a wide range of frequencies. However, the obtained exponents differ for low and high frequency regions. The probability distribution functions of the PC-index fluctuations show a strong non-gaussian shape, depending on the time of increment. This indicates that the PC-index exhibits intermittency, previously detected in solar wind and auroral electrojet index fluctuations. The PC-index probability distribution functions were fitted by the functional form proposed by Castaing et al. [Velocity probability density functions of high Reynolds number turbulence. Physica D. 46, 177–200, 1990] to describe intermittency phenomena in ordinary turbulent fluid flows. The agreement between the fitting parameters obtained for the PC index and those reported before for solar wind magnetic field fluctuations is within 30%; which is noticeably less than the difference between the same parameters of solar wind and the AE-index fluctuations. This fact indicates that the PC index reflects the solar wind influence on the high-latitude magnetosphere, especially during the summer.     

1998年5月空间天气大事件的地磁场响应

地磁场与1998年5月空间大事件相对应的是5月1日至16日发生的大磁暴（k=8)。磁暴主相开始的几个小时伴随有丰富的Pc型地磁脉动，包括P c2,Pc3,Pc4等。在增暴的恢复相，甚至还有Pc5巨型脉动，在行星标磁场Bz由北向转向南向时，磁暴主相开始；南向分量达到最大值后大约2小时，地磁H分量达到最小值，恢复相开始，并且，这次磁暴与太阳风电场也存在一定的对应关系。     

Neural network development for the forecasting of upper atmosphere parameter distributions

This paper presents a neural network modeling approach to forecast electron concentration distributions in the 150–600 km altitude range above Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The neural network was trained using incoherent scatter radar data collected at the Arecibo Observatory during the past two decades, as well as the Kp geomagnetic index provided by the National Space Science Data Center. The data set covered nearly two solar cycles, allowing the neural network to model daily, seasonal, and solar cycle variations of upper atmospheric parameter distributions. Two types of neural network architectures, feedforward and Elman recurrent, are used in this study. Topics discussed include the network design, training strategy, data analysis, as well as preliminary testing results of the networks on electron concentration distributions.     

A geomagnetic activity forecast for improving the efficiency of aeromagnetic surveys in Greenland

In recent years several aeromagnetic surveys were carried out in Greenland and more will be carried out in the future. We describe some of the characteristics pertinent to surveys in Greenland and the problems faced and experiences made by the survey teams working there, with special emphasis on the west coast where most surveys were conducted. Both unfavorable terrestrial weather and space weather appear to complicate survey planning. We discuss possible options available to the survey teams for mitigating the adverse effect of part of the problems, namely survey data contamination by intense geomagnetic activity. The implementation of a prototype geomagnetic activity forecast service as an aid to planning survey flights is discussed in more detail. The forecast service was tested by an independent observer, and the performance of the scheme is evaluated by a subsequent comparison between forecast and actual measurements. The comparison rendered largely acceptable results, but their validity is limited by the fact that the two-month test interval was characterized by a mostly relatively quiet magnetic field.     

Geomagnetic pulsation over conjugate locations during geomagnetic storms and substorm

Geomagnetic data collected during magnetic storm over magnetically conjugate pair (according to IGRF 2000) of high latitude stations viz., Maitri (70° 45′ S, 11° 42′ E) and Tromso (69° 40′ N, 18° 56′ E) reveal that amplitudes of Pc6 pulsation characteristically differ. The amplitude obtained from horizontal magnetic field for the Pc6 pulsation frequency range between 0.6 and 1.6 mHz significantly differs in time corresponding to peak amplitude. The relative differences in its time of occurrence found to gradually increase around initial phase of storm and remain exactly out of phase at peak amplitude of storm. Thence, it is found to be in agreement in phase gradually until storm unwinds. This indicates that simultaneous amplitude of Pc6 pulsation at conjugate pair of stations and its time of occurrence could be a key factor to infer storm arrivals somewhat prior to its peak effects. The emphasize remains on prediction of storm arrivals only by utilizing ground based magnetometer observations. However, it is necessary to understand differences on the basis of weak, moderate, strong, and super strong cases and more exactly how they behave along the line of magnetic Meridian. Nevertheless, the analysis implies that geo-effective magnetic ejecta/clouds/CIRs/sheaths/CMEs/ICMEs giving rise to geomagnetic storm can be predicted ahead of its peak effects by having magnetometer data over conjugate locations.     

Geomagnetic effects on mid-latitude railways: A statistical study of anomalies in the operation of signaling and train control equipment on the East-Siberian Railway

Intense geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can hamper rail traffic by disturbing signaling and train control systems. GIC threats have been a concern for technological systems at high-latitude locations due to geomagnetic disturbances driven by substorm expansion electrojet or convection electrojet intensifications. However, other geomagnetic storm processes such as storm sudden commencement (SSC) and geomagnetic pulsations can also cause GIC concerns for technological systems. We present in this paper the first evidence based on statistical data for links between geomagnetic disturbances and faulty operations (anomalies) in the functioning of railway automatics and telemetry. We analyze anomalies of automatic signaling and train control equipment which occurred in 2004 on the East-Siberian Railway (corrected geomagnetic latitude _m = 46–51°N and longitude λ_m = 168–187°E). Our results reveal a seasonal effect in the number of anomalies per train similar to the one observed in geomagnetic activity (Kp, Ap, Dst indices). We also found an increase by a factor of 3 in the total duration of daily anomalies during intense geomagnetic storms (local geomagnetic index specific to Siberian Observatory A_max > 30), with a significant correlation between the daily sum of durations of anomalies with geomagnetic activity. Special attention was paid to failures not related to recognized technical malfunctions. We found that the probability of these failures occurring in geomagnetically disturbed periods was 5–7 times higher than the average anomaly occurrence.     

Response of equatorial,low- and mid-latitude F-region in the American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm on 24–25 October 2011

In this paper, we present and discuss the response of the ionospheric F-region in the American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm which occurred on 24–25 October 2011. In this investigation ionospheric sounding data obtained of 23, 24, 25, and 26 October 2011 at Puerto Rico (United States), Jicamarca (Peru), Palmas, São José dos Campos (Brazil), and Port Stanley, are presented. Also, the GPS observations obtained at 12 stations in the equatorial, low-, mid- and high-mid-latitude regions in the American sector are presented. During the fast decrease of Dst (about ∼54 nT/h between 23:00 and 01:00 UT) on the night of 24–25 October (main phase), there is a prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin resulting an unusual uplifting of the F region at equatorial stations. On the night of 24–25 October 2011 (recovery phase) equatorial, low- and mid-latitude stations show h′F variations much larger than the average variations possibly associated with traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) caused by Joule heating at high latitudes. The foF2 variations at mid-latitude stations and the GPS-VTEC observations at mid- and low-latitude stations show a positive ionospheric storm on the night of 24–25 October, possibly due to changes in the large-scale wind circulation. The foF2 observations at mid-latitude station and the GPS-VTEC observations at mid- and high-mid-latitude stations show a negative ionospheric storm on the night of 24–25 October, probably associated with an increase in the density of molecular nitrogen. During the daytime on 25 October, the variations in foF2 at mid-latitude stations show large negative ionospheric storm, possibly due to changes in the O/N2 ratio. On the night of 24–25, ionospheric plasma bubbles (equatorial irregularities that extended to the low- and mid-latitude regions) are observed at equatorial, low- and mid-latitude stations. Also, on the night of 25–26, ionospheric plasma bubbles are observed at equatorial and low-latitude regions.     

Impact of geomagnetic variation over sub-auroral ionospheric region during high solar activity year 2014

The present work is an attempt to evaluate the impact of changing space weather condition over sub-auroral ionosphere during high solar activity year 2014. In view of this, the GPS based TEC along with Ionosonde data over Indian permanent scientific base “Maitri”, Antarctica (70°46′00″S, 11°43′56″E) has been utilized. The results suggested that the nature of ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic disturbances not only depended upon the status of high latitudinal electro-dynamic processes but also influenced by the seasonal variations. The results revel both negative and positive type of ionospheric response in a single year but during different seasons. The study suggested that the combination of equator-ward plasma transportation along with ionospheric compositional changes causes a negative ionospheric impact especially during summer and equinox seasons. However, the combination of pole-ward contraction of the oval region along with particle precipitation may lead to exhibit positive ionospheric response during the winter season. The plasma transportation direction has been validated with the help of convection boundary (HM boundary) deduced with the help of SuperDARN observations. The ground based ionosonde observations clearly provided the evidence of deep penetration of high energetic particles up to the E-layer heights which results a sudden and strong appearance of E-layer. The strengthening of E-layer is responsible for modification of auroral electrojet and field-aligned current system. Also, the sudden appearance of E-layer along with a decrease in F-layer electron density suggested the dominance of NO⁺ over O⁺ in a considered region under geomagnetic disturbed condition.     

Using neural networks to determine the optimum solar input for the prediction of ionospheric parameters

Neural networks (NNs) are proving to be ideal tools for modeling the behaviour of the ionosphere. The NNs are trained using a database of archived data describing the relationship between the output parameter and an input space. The input space is designed from knowledge of those variables that affect the behaviour of the output parameter. For ionospheric parameters this input space would always include a solar variable due to the strong influence that the sun has on ionospheric behaviour.     

磁暴期间全球TEC扰动特性分析

磁暴期间白天电离层总电子含量（TEC）大幅度扰动.TEC扰动与磁暴发生时的世界时（UT）有关.利用7年的数据对TEC对磁暴的响应进行统计研究.结果显示,磁暴期间白天TEC增大明显,且在午后TEC的增大比例有一个高峰.在18：00UT-04：00UT,南美地区与其他地区相比TEC增长较大,这可能与白天的光照有关.为了研究TEC变化与磁暴的关系,结合同样时间段的Dst指数,把TEC数据分为磁暴日（Dst<-100nT）和平静日（Dst>-50nT）.研究发现,将TEC前移2h,低纬日侧地区TEC增大值随着世界时的变化与Dst变化的负相关性较好,相关系数为-0.75.在中纬度地区,将TEC扰动前移1h,相关系数为-0.61.这可能是行进式大气扰动携带着赤道向的子午风,由极区向低纬传播引起.可以认为,TEC的变化可能是由磁暴引起的.在高纬地区,TEC增大值随着世界时的变化与Dst变化的相关性较差.这可能是由于太阳高度角较低,光辐射通量较小,导致电子密度的增加不明显.

     

2000年7月空间天气大事件对地磁场的影响

2000年7月空间大事件对地磁场产生了巨大影响,7月15日至18日发生大磁暴（K=9）.磁暴为急始型,在我国地区初相期变幅有200-300 nT,主相最大幅度有500-600nT,为多年来所罕见.在行星际磁场B_z由北向转向南向时,磁暴主相开始;南向分量达到最大值后大约2 h,地磁H分量达到最小值,恢复相开始.并且,这次磁暴与太阳风也存在一定的对应关系.     

Space weather in Japan

In Japan, Communications Research Laboratory engages in operational space environment information services as National Forecasting Center and Regional Warning Center of ISES. Data from local observations and data collected via internet from domestic and foreign institutes are used for the daily operational forecast. Fundamental research on space weather issues has been carried out at several institutes and universities, including STE Laboratory and NASDA. In this presentation, an overview of current space weather forecast operations and a system for information outreach in Japan will be presented. Current and future observation programs from ground-base and space will be also briefly reviewed.     

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A_p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A_p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.     

Effects of strong geomagnetic storms on Northern railways in Russia

Seventeen severe magnetic storms occurred in the period 2000 through 2005. In addition there was a major magnetic storm in March 1989. During each of these storms there was an anomaly in the operation of the system of Signalization, Centralization and Blockage (SCB) in some divisions of the high-latitude (∼58 to 64°N) Russian railways. This anomaly was revealed as false traffic light signals about the occupation of the railways. These signals on the Northern railways appeared exactly during the main phases of the strongest part of the geomagnetic storms characterized by high geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp (Ap). Moreover, the durations of these anomalies coincided with the period of the greatest geomagnetic disturbances in a given event. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during significant strengthening of geomagnetic activity are concluded as the obvious reasons for such kind of anomalies.