磁云—高速流相互作用的数值模拟

对１９７８年８月２７至２８日期间观测到的磁云与尾随高速流的相互作用进行数值模拟，基本拟合了１ＡＵ处的观测剖面。模拟结果表明，磁云－高速流系统将导致前向快，慢激波和后向快激波的形成。     

空间等离子体与垂直无碰撞激波相互作用的数值实验

应用混合模拟方法数值研究了高Ａｌｆｖｅｎ－Ｍａｃｈ数垂直无碰撞激波与等离子体间的相互作用。结果表明，激波上游的磁场非常稳定，粒子分布近似为Ｍａｘｗｅｌｌ分布。激波下游磁场存在不规则的湍动，质子分布有一个高能尾，且有些质子被激波反射。跟踪少量高速质子的计算结果表明，在ｔ＝４０Ωｉ＾－１时约有４０％的质子被激波反射，而７％质子可被加速，最大速度值可达到２０ＶＡ激波区的电场分布对质子的减速或加速起了主要     

行星际慢激波的传播和演化

采用二维理想MHD模型，分别在日球赤道面(二维二分量模型)和日球子午面(二维三分量模型)内研究太阳风中慢激波的传播和演化规律．结果表明，慢激波在向外传播的过程中逐渐演化为由原慢激波和新产生的快激波构成的激波系统，该激波系统在子午面内相对慢激波源中心法线基本对称，而在赤道面内则是不对称的：快激波阵面和慢激波阵面之间存在一个切触点，该处两个激波合并，蜕化为气体激波．上述切触点相对激波源中心法线东偏，且东偏角度在激波系统向外传播过程中不断增加．初步分析表明，行星际磁场的螺旋结构是产生日球赤道面内慢激波传播和演化的东西不对称性的主要原因．     

快讯

长征３号火箭成功发射亚太－１卫星　７月３日１８时４７分，在西昌发射中心，我国长征３号运载火箭成功地发射了亚太－１Ａ通信卫星。该卫星重约１．４吨，装有２４个Ｃ波段转发器，设计寿命为１０年。快讯...     

根据行星际闪烁观测研究耀斑—激波前后太阳风电子密度功率谱的变化

采用弱散射与薄屏近似模型，利用快速傅利叶变换和阿贝尔变换的方法，对１９７２年６月１５日耀斑－激波的行星际闪烁观测资料进行了计算，分别计算了激波前与激波后的电子密度功率谱，发现在小波数段都具有幂函数形式，并且波后幂指数值略大于波前幂指数值。说明此例激波后小波数段功率谱略变陡。     

航天简讯

深空－１探测器的近况及后续任务□□ＮＡＳＡ的深空－１探测器已进行了１１个月的技术验证任务，深空－１的管理者计划提交一项于２００１年与２颗彗星的交会计划。深空－１探测器是美国“新盛世”计划的第一个飞行器，于１９９８年１０月发射，总经费为１．５２亿美元，主要任务是试验和验证一些用于未来飞行器的技术。１９９９年５月，深空－１探测器的工作人员成功地进行了遥控试验，编制的一组人工智能软件使深空－１探测器在没有地面控制人员指挥的情况下作出了一些重要的决定。试验证明该系统能作出正确的决定并接受精确的飞行指令，…     

“阿里安”火箭1995年月均一发

阿里安空间公司最近公布“阿里安”运载火箭１９９５年的发射计划如下：１．１月，发射欧空局的第二颗地球资源卫星ＥＲＳ－２。２．２月，发射国际通信卫星－７０６。３．３月，发射美国休斯公司的第三颗直接广播卫星ＤＢＳ－３。４．３月，发射法国第一颗军事侦察卫星太阳神－１。５．４月，发射日本电报电话公司（ＮＴＴ）的“Ｎ－星”卫星。６．５月，发射泛美卫星公司的ＰＡＳ－４卫星和以色列Ｓｐａｃｅｃｏｍ卫星通信公司的Ａｍｏｓ卫星。７．６月，发射卢森堡ＳＥＳ公司的Ａｓｔｒａ－１Ｅ卫星。８．８月，发射法国电信公司（Ｔｅｌ…     

德国准备支持欧洲军用卫星计划

迄今为止，在欧洲军事空间领域，法国一直起主导作用，它的军事空间预算是世界上增长最快的：１９８７年是６．９７亿法郎（合１．３６亿美元），１９９４年已超过４０亿法郎。法国耗资９２．３亿法郎的“锡拉丘兹”（Ｓｙｒａ－ｃｕｓｅ）军用通信舱已搭载在法国电信局的电信－２（Ｔｅｌｅｃｏｍ－２）卫星上。１９９５年初法将发射其第一个高分辨率间谍卫星，即价值８０亿法郎的太阳神－１（Ｈｅｌｉｏｓ－１）卫星。法国总理埃·巴拉迪尔近来重申军事空间是国家的重点。的确，国防部１９９３年分担了法国空间局的责任，例如太阳神－１使…     

航天简讯

日本ＪＥＲＳ－１地球资源卫星停止工作□□１９９８年１０月１１日，日本第一颗地球观测卫星ＪＥＲＳ－１因蓄电池故障导致失去姿态控制，终于结束了其工作寿命。ＪＥＲＳ－１卫星重１．４ｔ，由东京三菱电气公司制造。卫星于１９９２年２月发射，原计划执行为期２年的环...     

行星际结构与垂直无碰撞激波的相互作用

应用一维混合模拟方法数值研究了两种行星际结构──反向磁场和高密度等离子团与垂直无碰撞激波的相互作用．结果表明，随着激波上游区磁场的反向，下游区磁场将逐渐改变符号，且等离子体密度和速度分别呈现较强的湍动．激波上游和下游的物理量依然满足Rankine-Hugonoit关系．当高密度的等离子体团通过垂直无碰撞激波时，部分质子被激波反射，部分质子被加速并进入下游区域．由于质子速度分布为非Maxwell分布，在激波下游也激发出较强的湍动．     

Evolution of coronal mass ejection/shock system in interplanetary space

The evolution of coronal mass ejection/shock system is investigated by numerically solving the usual set of two-dimensional single-fluid polytropic magnetohydrodynamic equations from 1 R_s to 1 AU in the meridian plane. The simulation result reveals that the coronal mass ejection/shock system formed near the sun evolves into the magnetic cloud/shock system near the earth’s orbit through the following three phases: the initial formation, the dominant latitudinal expansion and the similar expansion.     

行星际空间MHD模拟激波跃变关系分析

分析了模拟得到的可以传播到1AU以远的日地空间磁流体力学激波与Rankine-Hugnoniot跃变关系的符合程度．通过对模拟激波的结构及其在传播过程中的演化进行的分析，提出了模拟激波的定位方法；基于所提出的定位方法，利用向长青提出的确定MHD激波局地参数的方法计算了模拟得到的激波与Rankine-Hugnoniot跃变关系的偏差．结果表明在激波传播到100Rs以后，激波对中前向快激波与Rankine-Hugnoniot关系的符合达到很高的程度，相对误差在10^-2数量级以内；并且在激波传播到150 Rs以后，相对误差在10^-3数量级以内．这个结果说明文中所使用的有限差分数值格式能较好地模拟激波．     

A polytropic model for the solar wind

The solar wind fills the heliosphere and is the background medium in which coronal mass ejections propagate. A realistic modelling of the solar wind is therefore essential for space weather research and for reliable predictions. Although the solar wind is highly anisotropic, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are able to reproduce the global, average solar wind characteristics rather well. The modern computer power makes it possible to perform full three dimensional (3D) simulations in domains extending beyond the Earth’s orbit, to include observationally driven boundary conditions, and to implement even more realistic physics in the equations. In general, MHD models for the solar wind often make use of additional source and sink terms in order to mimic the observed solar wind parameters and/or they hide the not-explicitly modelled physical processes in a reduced or variable adiabatic index. Even the models that try to take as much as possible physics into account, still need additional source terms and fine tuning of the parameters in order to produce realistic results. In this paper we present a new and simple polytropic model for the solar wind, incorporating data from the ACE spacecraft to set the model parameters. This approach allows to reproduce the different types of solar wind, where the simulated plasma variables are in good correspondence with the observed solar wind plasma near 1 AU.     

Polytropic star structure analysis under Bonnor–Ebert gas sphere astrophysical configuration thorough investigating analytical solutions to the related Lane–Emden equation

In this paper, Bonnor–Ebert gas sphere model of polytropic stars has been investigated through an analytical approach. Two confirmed and well-established methods have been used: the Enhanced Lagrangian Formulation Method ELFM and the Boubaker Polynomials Expansion Scheme BPES. Solutions to the related generalized Lane–Emden equation of the second kind have been expressed and plotted. Results have given evidence to the relevance of the dimensionless Bonnor–Ebert radius, in good agreement with some recently proposed profiles.     

A stationary bow shock model for plasmas: The spherical blunt obstacle problem

We present an analytic model of a stationary bow shock which describes the interaction between a supermagnetosonic ambient wind and an obstacle with spherical-like frontal shape. We develop expressions for the bow shock’s geometry and the physical properties of the plasma sheath as functions of the upstream conditions. The solution is limited to magnetic fields parallel to the upstream velocity. The model allows to use any value of the upstream alfvenic and sonic Mach numbers and the polytropic index (γ$\gamma$), pointing out the influence of γ$\gamma$ for the magnetosheath compression and the bow shock shape. When both Mach numbers are small, the upstream magnetic field intensity affects also the bow shock shape. We compare our results with other models finding important consistencies. We also compare our results with in-situ data, we fund a reasonable qualitative agreement; however, it seems that our model underestimates the magnetosheath size.     

基于极大熵聚类的工程项目风险预警模型

该方法针对当前大部分工程风险预警模型只能报警,不能预测的现状,提出了基于熵最优化的工程项目风险预警方法.利用判别熵最小化选取项目风险预警指标值,通过特征选取找出那些最有效的特征,研究出一种新的聚类算法——极大熵聚类算法,极大熵聚类算法是以概率为比例将任一指标向量分配给所有码向量,而不是仅仅只分配给与之最近的码向量,该算法是C-均值算法的一种推广.最后用实例验证该模型,用此算法对预测结果进行分类,判断项目的风险状态.结果表明这种方法估计工程项目风险快捷有效,与实际情况基本一致,可以应用于工程分析.      

Auroral Electrojet Event Associated With Magnetospheric Substorms

The auroral electrojet index is an important index in monitoring and predicting substorms. A substorms usually includes auroral breakup, auroral electrojet event marked by AE increase, energetic particle injection at geosynchronous orbit, mid-low latitude Pi2, etc. However the question whether an auroral electrojet event corresponds to a substorm remains unanswered. Using the auroral electrojet index in 2004, we analyzed five auroral electrojet events and studied their relation with substorms. The results show that there are three kinds of auroral electrojet events: (1) simultaneous rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and eastward auroral electrojet; (2) rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable eastward auroral electrojet; (3) rapid increase of eastward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable westward auroral electrojet. Most of auroral electrojet events correspond to substorms. However a few auroral electrojet events are not accompanied by substorms. This situation most often occurs for the auroral electrojet event in which eastward auroral electrojet dominates.      

亚暴起始地磁指数判断的统计研究

利用2004年地磁西向电急流 AL指数, 亚暴电急流AE指数和场向电流AF指数来确定亚暴起始, 并与2004年亚暴极光起始进行对比. 研究发现, 如果以极光亚暴起始为时间零点, 亚暴的西向电急流AL起始和电急流AE起始主要分布于-5~+6 min的时间范围内, 但在-9~+9 min的时间范围内也有个别事例. 场向电流 AF 起始分布较宽, 可以分布于-8~+7 min的时间范围内. 平均西向电急流AL起始, 电急流AE起始和场向电流AF起始分别为0.5, 0.5, -0.1min. 通常西向电急流AL起始与极光起始同时的概率最高, 而多数情况下电急流AE起始和场向电流AF起始提前极光起始1min. 这些地面磁场指数确定的亚暴起始分布, 随着亚暴强度的增大(即最小AL指数减少, 最大AE指数增大, 最大AF指数增大)而向极光亚暴起始靠近. 对于5个超级亚暴来说, 其西向电急流AL起始和电急流AE起始都发生在极光起始之前. 这些结果说明对于大亚暴, 电急流的增加要早于极光爆发.      

Integrated drought monitoring index: A tool to monitor agricultural drought by using time-series datasets of space-based earth observation satellites

In this study, integrated drought monitoring index (IDMI) was proposed as a tool to assess and monitor the spatio-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought during the northeast monsoon season for the period from 2000 to 2016 in Tamil Nadu state, south-eastern part of Indian peninsula. The IDMI is characterized as the principal component of precipitation condition index (PCI), soil moisture condition index (SMCI), temperature condition index (TCI), and vegetation condition index (VCI) derived from time-series satellite observations of climate hazards group infra-red precipitation with stations (CHIRPS), European space agency climate change initiative (ESA-CCI) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). The study shows that in the year 2016, about 44.4 and 17.8% of Tamil Nadu state was under extreme and severe drought conditions, respectively. Sensitivity analysis of the study shows that PCI is the most influential parameter to IDMI, followed by VCI and TCI. The validation of IDMI with 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) by using Pearson correlation test shows a strong positive correlation between IDMI and 3-month SPI with correlation coefficient (r) value of 0.73 and 0.77 for the wet (2005) and dry year (2016), respectively. The study clearly demonstrates the potential of IDMI derived from time-series datasets of earth observation satellites as a tool in assessment and monitoring of spatio-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought. The proposed IDMI could be effectively used as a reliable tool to monitor agricultural drought and develop its mitigation strategies to minimise the adverse effects of drought on agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods of the people.     

不确定条件下航空不安全事件灵敏度分析的Monte-Carlo方法

为解决不确定条件下航空不安全事件灵敏度分析的难题,基于Bow-tie模型提出了多模式下航空安全性指标及其灵敏度测度,以轮胎爆破事件为例,采用Monte-Carlo方法计算得到安全性指标、基本事件的全局灵敏度及其分布参数的局部灵敏度。根据轮胎爆破事件仿真结果,两类灵敏度指标均随着飞行时间的增加而发生变化,尤其是在500~600 h时变化最为显著,但灵敏度重要性排序保持不变;基本事件类型是影响灵敏度的一个主要因素,电子类基本事件灵敏度测度远远小于机械类基本事件;同类型基本事件中,平均故障间隔时间不是主导因素,灵敏度大小还与失效传递的逻辑关系密切相关。算例结果表明:航空安全水平随着飞行时间逐步下降,应重点关注飞行时间为500~600 h时航空组件失效导致事故发生的可能性;航空组件的灵敏度重要性不会随着飞行时间变化,提高灵敏度较高的基本事件的可靠性水平是防范航空事故的关键。