The decision to develop the Space Shuttle

Many of the problems that the Space Shuttle programme has had in meeting its goals of routine and cost-effective access to space can be traced to various characteristics of the decision to develop the Space Shuttle. That decision was made through a process of bureaucratic politics, with little attention given to future users of the Shuttle. The design chosen for development was a poor compromise between demanding Pentagon and NASA requirements and a limited budget.     

Understanding strategic decision making in the context of international space activities

This paper argues that a better understanding of strategic decision making processes in different space agencies is relevant to the successful carrying out of international cooperative undertakings in space and that this kind of information should be taken into account when decisions are to be made on engaging in a new partnership. In this context, the paper provides a general framework for the study of strategic decision making in space organisations, with particular emphasis on the influence of culture. Additionally, it offers practical examples of how differences in policy priorities, decision making environments and practices amongst space organisations can affect international cooperative endeavours. A particular concern is with the role of national and corporate cultures in creating and reflecting differences between space agencies. In order to gather information on strategic decision making processes in the space sector, a series of 30 interviews was conducted with top decision makers from NASA, ESA and the space organisations of Brazil, France, Canada, Russia, The Netherlands and the UK.     

Reforming European space governance

The structures governing European space activity, now some 50 years old, require reform to take better account of the plethora of space uses, the growing involvement in space of the EU and the variable degree of European integration. Adopting a method that involves identifying weaknesses in governance – e.g. lack of a European military space programme; problems in maintaining operational service continuity; opposition to change – the authors argue that only by harmonising its decision making and coherently integrating its public organisations will Europe be able to achieve a space programme commensurate with its technical capabilities and its political dimension.     

Overview of Hungarian space activity: Plenty of potential,not enough support

The era of modern space research and applications began with the 1945–46 Moon-radar experiments and with the successful launch of the first artificial satellite, Sputnik-1. Hungary and Hungarian engineers/researchers were present at the birth of this new and important discipline. As a consequence of the Second World War Hungary became part of the Soviet bloc and, for the first 30 years of the Space Age, Hungarian space activity was carried out mainly within Intercosmos; however, some highlights were produced. After the collapse of the communist dictatorship Hungarian space activity was successfully rebuilt and the past 20 years have seen the beginning of the integration of Hungarian space activity into ESA and EU space policy. Hungarian society’s attitude to the country’s space activity is complex, as is that of its decision makers. This largely results from the simplified picture of global space activity and Hungarian participation therein in people’s minds and from the ignorance of the country’s decision makers. While this is basically a global problem, it has a special Hungarian aspect in the view that a small country has no real role in the world, in the EU, in ESA or in global space activity. We have a task: to change this mind-set.     

The 1972 Liability Convention: time for revision?

The 1972 Liability Convention is an example of the interaction of international policy, international relations and economy. It helps define liability for damage caused by space objects. However, with more and more space activities taking place on a daily basis, along with the trend towards commercialization, the continued application of the Convention faces severe challenges. Consequently, a serious review of the Convention is needed after more than 30 years of its existence. With possible revision the Convention would offer clear guidelines for decision makers to decide cases in a rational way best suited to the development of space operations.     

History of UK contribution to astronautics: Politics and government

In all developed countries, once it emerged from the amateur era, Space (and especially rocketry) moved on the public agenda because of its potential significance for both the civil and military policies of governments (coupled with its appetite for new money). In the UK the policy treatment of Space broadly paralleled that in other countries until the post-Empire trauma, the burn-out of the White-Hot Technological revolution of Harold Wilson, and the financial crises of the 1970s exhausted the public appetite for large scale publicly funded projects in high technology. The culmination for Space of these pressures came in 1986–1987 when the UK rejected the emerging international consensus and, almost alone, stayed outside the manned space commitments which developed into the International Space Station. In this paper, Colin Hicks will review the UK political developments which led up to the 1986–1987 decision and how the politics and organisation of UK space activity have developed since then to the point where in 2008 a major government review of the UK involvement in manned space was commissioned.     

空间细胞机器人系统关键技术及其应用

针对传统空间操控装置难以适应未来大型空间设施在轨建设的问题,提出一种能够实现多层次自重构的空间细胞机器人系统,并对其概念体系以及设计理念进行了分析。介绍了空间三角桁架装配场景下的空间细胞机器人系统硬件设计。提出了空间细胞机器人系统关键技术,包括多智能体协同不确定行为规划、多层次机器人系统构型决策、多智能体协同无环境地图自主导航以及多智能体分层协同分布式控制等。最后结合空间细胞机器人系统的特点与优势,对其应用前景进行了展望。     

The Space Policy Summit

A Space Policy Summit of high-level individuals from government, industry and international organizations was held in Houston, TX immediately before the World Space Congress in October 2002. It provided a forum for the discussion of long-term space policy issues in the fields of commercial space exploitation, public good applications and space exploration. This report presents the background to the decision to hold such a summit, and discusses selected issues and recommendations.     

The return of the American military to crewed spaceflight: Hypersonic and other visions

Since the 1950s, crewed spaceflight has been the province of NASA, a decision reaffirmed in the 1960s with the cancellation of all military projects which might have competed. That understanding has driven American space policy since that time despite the fact that the military has not given up its dream of crewed spaceflight. Over the past decade, that division of labor has begun to break down in part due to the military's heightened awareness of the usefulness of space as operational location. The Air Force, the service most committed to this vision of military space, has in its planning for the next generation returned to the concept of military space activities across the spectrum. In essence, the implied social contract which drove American crewed spaceflight since the sixties is now undergoing revision and possible reversal. Given the political climate, NASA may be particularly vulnerable to such challenges. The impact of such a change upon the world wide human spaceflight effort is unknown but likely to be extremely disruptive as military considerations move to the fore. The debate is ongoing, the major limitation remains budget so that any agreed upon changes are likely to be slow to occur.     

Technology assessment in space activities: status and outlook

Space technology is not only a matter for engineers. In various ways, political authorities and other sections of society are interested in space activities. An of space activities provides a scientific basis on which to tender guidance and advice to decision makers. The authors discuss the growing use of technology assessment in the space field with particular reference to German activities and analyse why it will become more important in the future.     

Reorganization of the space development structure in Japan

At the end of 2002 a new law was passed to create a single space agency for Japan out of the merger of NASDA and NAL with ISAS. The new agency will be an independent administrative institution with day-to-day autonomy from the government. The authors provide the background to the decision to restructure Japan's space development and describe the goals, organization and scope of activities of the agency. Steps have been taken to counter concerns that consolidating the three existing organizations could hamper the conduct of basic research.     

The US national space transportation policy: issues for congress

Below is a summary of what was to be the first in a series of reports produced by the Office of Technology Assessment (now defunct) on policy for the USA's future space transportation technology and industrial base. It examines the Clinton Administration's 1994 National Space Transportation Policy and supporting implementation plans and raises and analyses such issues as conflicts and redundancies within NASA and DoD space transportation development programs; competition and cooperation with foreign launch vehicle and component providers; US government limits on the conversion of long-range missiles to space launchers in the face of Russian activity in this area; and the effectiveness of Administration efforts to include the private sector in space transportation decision making. Some issues not covered in the Policy are also discussed.     

Space station orbit design using dynamic programming

A space station orbit design mission is characterized by a long-duration and multi-step decision process. First, the long-duration design process is divided into multiple planning periods, each of which consists of five basic flight segments. Second, each planning period is modeled as a multi-step decision process, and the orbital altitude strategies of different flight segments have interaction effects on each other. Third, a dynamic programming method is used to optimize the total propellant consumption of a planning period while considering interaction effects. The step cost of each decision segment is the propellant for orbital-decay maintenance or lifting altitude, and is calculated by approximate analytical equations and combining a shooting iteration method. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a typical orbit design problem of a space station. The results show that the proposed approach can effectively optimize the design of altitude strategies, and can save considerable propellant consumption for the space station than previous public studies.     

A knowledge-based architecture for planning military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance

One of the most important objectives of military intelligence is to warn of potential or immediate threats. This paper investigates several related research issues. First, what kinds of data can military space provide, with which to watch, monitor, and analyze hostile forces? Second, what operational mechanisms can work to integrate military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance? Third, how can a system architecture in support of intelligence operations be implemented for decision support and knowledge management? The paper investigates how research work can contribute a system concept with military space applications to national defense and security. It investigates the use of a geographical information system as a system platform for integrating the spatial database, attribute database, rule base, case base and knowledge repository as a knowledge-based decision support system. A hypothetical case showing how the system is implemented is presented.     

Exploring a structured decision approach as a means of fostering participatory space policy making at NASA

In 1996, the National Research Council's Committee on Risk Characterization argued convincingly for the implementation of more participatory approaches to improve policy making by incorporating a wide range of stakeholder values and concerns in policy decisions. Guidance about how to best carry out such an approach in an agency like NASA is less clear. To address this gap, this paper discusses how the use of a structured approach to involve expert and non-expert stakeholders in policy making can improve the quality of stakeholder involvement and resulting decisions for space policy making at NASA. Supporting this discussion are results from two recent experiments. One compared the quality and type of participants’ input in a conventional stakeholder workshop with that of a more structured participatory process. The results from this experiment showed that a structured decision approach leads to more thoughtful and better-informed decisions. A second experiment showed that structured, participatory decision processes can help to legitimize space policy decisions after they have been implemented, leading to future benefits for the space agency.     

Soyuz in French Guiana: A strategic perspective

After a proposition from Russia to France, ESA agreed to see Soyuz rockets take off from French Guiana. From industry, to governments and agencies, many Russian and European actors were involved in this project and they all had different motives. It is therefore relevant to try to discern them so as to understand the rationale behind this cooperative endeavor. Soyuz's primary role is to consolidate Arianespace commercial position in the launching market and to bring activity and founding to a stagnating Russian space sector. With this decision Arianespace will have a full range of commercially available launchers with Soyuz completing the two European rockets Vega and Ariane V. But since Vega and Ariane must have the priority, there is a risk to see an insufficient launch rate for Soyuz, which would not satisfy the Russian partners. Commercial elements alone cannot justify the agreement. There is a larger strategic ambition behind. What is at stake is the future development of innovative launch systems. It is important for ESA to maintain an autonomous access to space and to maintain a dynamic and strong European propulsion industry. Cooperation with Russia can offer an increase of expandable rockets capabilities and can pave for the next generation of launch vehicles. Moreover, we can detect an interest in acquiring a system that has the potential for human space flight capacity. Finally, the decision to launch Soyuz from French Guiana was the conjunction of Russian and French national interests, which led to a complete redefinition of the relations between Europe and Russia. It is of strategic importance that we, Europeans, adapt to this evolution and understand the new place that Russia takes in our space sector.     

The need for a new Franco-German partnership in space: A joint policy memorandum

France and Germany have long been partners in space. However, new attitudes and directions in their respective space programmes are affecting the nature of traditional Franco-German space relations in an evolving European space context. The long-standing partnership is at a juncture and there is a need for a new dialogue to define what future directions the partnership should take. With this in mind, a joint memorandum was initiated by the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI), who prepared it together with the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS) and the Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI), as well as the Berlin-based German Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP). It reflects on the state of current Franco-German space relations and lays out the issues to be considered by decision makers in both countries to provide a new impetus to the Franco-German partnership.     

基于CLIPS的航天发射决策支持系统

提出了基于CLIPS的决策支持系统的构建方法，比较详细分析了系统的组成、功能和推理过程，重点讨论了关系矩阵、决策树、故障字典的推理方法。关系矩阵利用输入输出信息存在一一对应的特点。建立了故障模式与测试信息的映射关系，实现故障快速定位；决策树按叶结点、判定结点和决策结点三个层次，实现最低发射条件的判定；故障字典采用分步实施的模糊故障字典，既按系统、分系统、单机级设立故障字典，又按箭上、地面设备、人工信息设立故障字典，然后采用模糊推理方式，给出故障处置对策。该系统在首次载人航天飞行任务中得到了应用，有效解决了信源偏少问题，其实时性和正确性能较好地满足指挥员的要求。