太阳F10.7指数准27天振荡的小波分析

利用1956-2003年的F10.7日均值数据,采用Morlet小波变换方法,分析了准27天振荡的特征及与太阳活动11年周期(Schwabe周期)的关系.结果表明,F10.7的准27天振荡的幅度和周期存在明显的短期变化现象,不同年里变化的程度差别很大,有些年里起伏非常剧烈,在几天到几十天的很短时间里,幅度变化达十几倍,周期可变化数天,甚至发生十几天的突变;有些年里,幅度变化很大但起伏很小,周期也比较稳定.准27天振荡的年平均幅度存在明显的逐年变化,与太阳活动显著相关.一般说来,F10.7越高,准27天振荡的幅度就越大,然而在太阳活动19周峰年,F10.7比其他活动周的值都高,但准27天振荡的幅度却比其他活动周低.准27天振荡的周期也有明显的逐年变化,除了个别年(如1987年),年平均周期在24至31天之间变化,与太阳活动周期没有明显的关系.48年的平均周期为27.3天.从总体看,周期有逐渐缩短的趋势,48年里周期大约减少了1.5天.造成准27天振荡起伏的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.      

A summary of the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema

This paper is a summary of our recent researches on the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema in the prediction of solar activity. Some correlation coefficients among the parameters in solar cycle according to this definition are higher than those according to the conventional definition. The descending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the ascending time 3 cycles earlier. The amplitude of solar cycle is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the max–max solar cycle length 2 cycles earlier. The ascending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.72) with the amplitude. A newly defined parameter called effective duration is found to be well correlated (r = 0.86) with the amplitude 5 cycles later. These correlations suggest that earlier cycles should influence later ones. The next (24th) solar cycle is estimated to start in March 2007 ± 7 months, reach its maximum in January 2011 ± 14 months, with a size of 150 ± 22, larger than those from some correlations according to the conventional definition.     

姿态角幅值约束下的太阳帆Lissajous轨道保持控制

太阳帆航天器以两姿态角作为轨道控制输入时, 其轨道动力学方程具有非仿射非线性特性. 通过人工平动点处线性化获得的线性系统可完成太阳帆航天器轨道保持控制器的分析与设计. 由于线性近似模型为有误差模型, 存在近似有效范围约束, 表现为轨道高度约束和姿态角幅值约束. 本文研究了姿态角幅值约束对线性近似模型有效性的影响, 通过计算给出满足近似误差要求的姿态角幅值约束. 当控制输入存在幅值约束时, 控制器轨道修正能力受到束缚. 通过研究姿态角幅值约束下的最大允许入轨误差, 设计了最大允许入轨误差下线性二次型调节器(LQR)用于轨道保持控制, 并将控制器应用于太阳帆日地三体系统非线性模型中, 实现了日地人工L₁点Lissajous轨道最大允许入轨误差的控制收敛和良好精度下的轨道保持控制.      

单目标概率约束规划的微种群免疫优化算法

针对无先验随机分布信息的单目标概率约束规划,探讨了微种群免疫优化算法。算法设计中,受危险理论启发设计微种群免疫优化算法进化框架;借助估计值的误差幅度,提出2个方法分别估计概率值和目标值;依据个体间的优劣关系,划分群体为3个类型子群协同进化;构建生命周期模型,设计自适应的交叉与变异概率、变异策略,结合交叉算子促进子群信息有效交流,并沿不同方向协同进化。数值实验统计结果说明:所提算法拥有良好的搜索效率、搜索效果及降噪能力,具有一定的竞争力和应用潜力。      

The radial velocity of the sun as a star and the solar cycle

Radial velocity measurements of the sun as a star using a resonant scattering spectrometer have been obtained at Izaña (Tenerife) during long observing seasons from 1976 to 1985. Its analysis shows that except for the global oscillations with periods shorter than one day there are stable signals with longer periods: at ∼13 days with mean amplitude of ∼ 3 m/s (it changes with the solar cycle) and another one of ∼ 15 m/s amplitude which shows a temporal variation of various years related to the solar cycle. The first signal has a partial explanation as an effect produced by the passage of active regions through the visible surface of the sun but it does not completely explain the observed signal. The second one, related to the limb shift, is probably due to changes in the convection zone in connection with the solar cycle.     

旋转变压器输出信号自动标定

旋转变压器输出以角位置正余弦为包络的调幅信号,一般通过检波与解调获取角位置及角速度信息.检波后信号往往存在直流偏置、幅值不等和相位偏移,对其进行标定是实现高精度解调的前提.针对检波后信号的标定问题,提出了一种离线自动标定方法.设计状态观测器,对检波后两路信号的幅值及直流偏置进行估计;构造二元二次目标函数,利用梯度估计法,获取相位偏移.理论分析表明,与仅采用梯度估计法相比,此方法避免了目标函数多解问题.实验结果表明,此方法参数选择容易,具有较高的精度,是完全可行的.      

The structure of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray 11-year variation

Two phenomena connected with the maximum phase of the 11-year solar cycle in the galactic cosmic ray intensity – the change in the energy dependence of the intensity variations and the double-peak structure in the intensity modulation time profile – are considered for the last five solar cycles (Nos. 19–23). The distinct 22-year cycle in the magnitude of the so called energy hysteresis is observed.The periods of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray intensity, characterized by the specific energy dependence of the intensity, are estimated. It is found that the double-peak structures belonging to the solar cycle maximum phase and those around it are very similar both in the amplitude and in its energy dependence.     

Low-latitude ionospheric scintillations and total electron content obtained with the CITRIS instrument on STPSat1 using radio transmissions from DORIS ground beacons

The primary objective of the Scintillation and Tomography Receiver in Space (CITRIS) is to detect ionospheric irregularities from space at low latitude. For this purpose, the satellite receiver uses the UHF and S-Band transmissions of the ground network of Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) beacons. CITRIS, developed at the Naval Research Laboratory, differs from the normal DORIS receiver by being able to capture and store the complex amplitude of the 401.25 and 2036.25 MHz transmissions at 200 Hz sample rate. Ground processing of the CITRIS data yields total electron content (TEC) and both phase and amplitude scintillations. With CITRIS flying on the US Space Test Program (STP) satellite STPSat1, 2 years of data were collected and processed to determine the fluctuations in ionospheric TEC and radio scintillations associated with equatorial irregularities. CITRIS flights over DORIS transmitters yield direct measurements of the horizontal plasma density fluctuations associated with equatorial plasma bubbles. Future flights of CITRIS can provide valuable complements to other satellite instruments such as GPS occultation receivers used to estimate vertical electron density profiles in the ionosphere.     

Transient variations of vertical total electron content over some African stations from 2002 to 2012

This paper presents the vertical total electron content vTEC variations for three African stations, located at mid-low and equatorial latitudes, and operating since more than 10 years. The vTEC of the middle latitude GPS station in Alexandria, Egypt (31.2167°N; 29.9667°E, geographic) is compared to the vTEC of two others GPS stations: the first one in Rabat/Morocco (33.9981°N; 353.1457°E, geographic), and the second in Libreville/Gabon (0.3539°N; 9.6721°E, geographic). Our results discussed the diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle dependences of vTEC at the local ionospheric conditions, during different phases of solar cycle in the light of the classification of Legrand and Simon. The vTEC over Alexandria exhibits the well-known equinoctial asymmetry which changes with the phases of the solar cycle; the spring vTEC is larger than that of autumn during the maximum, decreasing and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. During the increasing phase of solar cycle 24, it is the contrary. The diurnal variation of the vTEC presents multiple maxima during the equinox from 2005 to 2008 and during the summer solstice from 2006 to 2012. A nighttime vTEC enhancement and winter anomaly are also observed. During the deep solar minimum (2006–2009) the diurnal variation of the vTEC observed over Alexandria is similar to the diurnal variation observed during quiet magnetic period at equatorial latitudes. We observed also that the amplitude of vTEC at Libreville is larger than the amplitude of vTEC observed at Alexandria and Rabat, indeed Libreville is near the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionization anomaly. Finally, the correlation coefficient between vTEC and the sunspot number Rz is high and changes with solar cycle phases.     

Periodic variations of ionization rate in the low and middle atmosphere

The cosmic ray ionization source functions which were obtained using a simplified extensive air shower model are used to calculate the eleven year cycle, seasonal and diurnal variations of ionization rate in the low and middle atmosphere. The ionization source function, as a function of the penetrating depth and the energy of cosmic ray particles, is the ionization rate per unit depth for a unit flux of incoming cosmic ray particles with certain energy.The calculation of the eleven year cycle variation of ionization rate in the low and middle atmosphere due to the modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity by solar activity shows that the amplitude is larger at a higher magnetic latitude and is generally larger at higher altitudes. The relative amplitude of fluctuation of the ionization peak value (at altitudes near 15 km) is up to 45% in the magnetic polar region. The ionization rate, due to the seasonal variation of the atmospheric density, varies from several per cent below the ionization peak to several tens per cent above the peak. This seasonal variation of ionization rate reaches 35% at 70 km. The diurnal variation of atmospheric densities caused by atmospheric tidal oscillation can produce a diurnal variation of the ionization rate to an amplitude of several per cent at altitudes above 40 km. The diurnal oscillation is less than 1% below 35 km.     

Effect of the seed perturbation amplitude on the equatorial spread F initiation during solar minimum

The contribution of gravity wave (GW) to the initiation/development of spread F during a solar minimum year was investigated through the comparison of the observed precursory parameters and characteristics of the corresponding equatorial spread F (ESF) events. The ionospheric parameters were recorded at the magnetic equatorial station Sao Luis (2.3°S, 44°W, dip latitude 2°S) during March and October 2010. These data were used to estimate the influence of the relative gravity wave amplitude and the ambient ionospheric condition on the diurnal variation of the spread F initiation. The vertical velocity drift indicated a clear control and defines the threshold for the seasonal variability of the ESF occurrence. However, it was insufficient to solely determine or predict the day to day variation of ESF occurrence. Thus, few days with contrasting ambient ionospheric condition and magnitude of GW amplitude were analysed in order to investigate the role of the different precursory factors in the observed diurnal variation of the plasma irregularity development. The density scale length and gravity wave amplitude were shown to immensely contribute to the linear instability growth rate, especially during the days with a low post-sunset rise. Thus, the experimental observations have demonstrated the strong inter-dependence between the precursory factors and they have also highlighted the probable control of the ESF morphology.     

基于EMD的东亚夏季风年代际变化特征及与太阳活动的关系

应用英国气象局哈德利气象研究中心(HadleyCenter)及美国环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)的海平面气压(SeaLevelPressure,SLP)资料归一化得出1850-2011年的东亚夏季风指数,利用经验模态分解(EmpiricalModeDecomposition,EMD)方法对其变化特征进行分析,得到东亚夏季风指数的周期特征.太阳黑子活动与东亚夏季风活动存在相同的11年及80年左右周期,其中11年周期变化尤为明显.对比1850-2011年间太阳黑子数与东亚夏季风指数经验模态分解后的11年周期变化分量,发现两者波动振幅变化基本一致.      

灰色预测在无人机维修费用估算中的应用

维修费用估算是无人机寿命周期费用估算的重要组成部分,维修费用是随着时间推移而递增的时间序列函数.针对传统估算方法,由于样本量有限而无法得到准确预测值的实际情况,引入灰色理论,运用GM(1,1)模型对某型无人机维修费用进行估算,预测出了一个较为准确的结果.灰色预测用于无人机维修费用估算效果较好.      

基于CHAMP卫星观测数据对热层大气密度的经验正交分析

对2003年(太阳活动较高年)至2007年(太阳活动低年) CHAMP卫星的热层大气密度观测数据进行了经验正交函数(EOF)分析, 得到了400 km高度上白天平均大气密度ρ的太阳活动周变化与年度变化等不同变化分量. 研究结果表明, ρ受太阳活动影响较大, 其太阳周变化分量与F10.7指数变化之间的相关系数可高达94.5 %; ρ的太阳周变化分量随纬度增加而减小, 且在中高纬地区, 南半球的值明显大于北半球的值, 在低纬地区则出现基本对称的双峰分布, 即赤道质量密度异常(EMA)结构. 在ρ的年变化中, 呈现出明显的季节变化, 即夏季低冬季高; 同时ρ的年变化幅度随太阳活动增加而增强, 随纬度增加而增强. 将本文结果与经验模式NRLMSISE00在观测条件下的输出数据进行对比, 发现两者的太阳周变化与年变化分量基本一致, 但本文观测数据的太阳周成分随纬度变化略小, 年变化幅度略大, 且NRLMSISE00模式不能再现EMA结构. 研究结果对揭示热层气候学变化特征具有重要意义.      

基于非线性变换的加速度计误差标定与补偿CSCD

为提高三轴加速度计测量精度,分析其误差来源和产生机理,建立了误差模型;根据误差模型和重力场幅值不变特性,推导出非线性观测方程。引入两个未知的参数向量,通过数学变换把非线性观测方程变形为关于新未知参数的线性方程;然后采用批量最小二乘法求出新的未知参数,并根据误差模型参数和新未知参数之间的关系,利用逆解析运算求出对应的零点偏差、灵敏度误差和三轴不正交误差。实验结果表明,加速度计正负误差峰值间距可以减小100倍左右,精度可达10-3m/s2,并具有很好的可重复性。该方法算法效率较高,补偿效果显著。     

A 22-year cycle in sunspot activity

We study the recently presented group sunspot number series and show that a persistent 22-year periodicity exists in sunspot activity throughout the entire period of about 400 years of direct sunspot observations. The amplitude of this periodicity in total cycle intensity is about 20% of the present intensity level. A 22-year periodicity in sunspot activity is naturally produced by the 22-year magnetic dynamo cycle in the presence of a relic magnetic field. Accordingly, a persistent 22-year periodicity in sunspot activity gives strong evidence for the existence of such a relic magnetic field in the Sun. The stable phase and the roughly constant amplitude of this periodicity during times of very different sunspot activity level strongly support this interpretation.     

脉冲射流对环量控制翼型气动性能的影响

定常射流在大迎角下气动性能较差,借助脉冲射流能够有效改善大迎角下的气动性能,并减少射流所需质量流量。采用非定常数值模拟的方法进行了脉冲射流作用下的环量控制翼型气动特性计算和流场分析。总结了占空比和频率分别对时均升力和升力脉动幅值的影响趋势;分析了不同迎角下的脉冲射流流动机理;进一步指出了射流动量系数的影响规律,并借助脉冲射流和定常射流的叠加效应有效缓解了升力脉动现象。结果表明:低占空比、同等升力系数下,脉冲射流可大幅度减小质量流量,但升力脉动幅值较大;小迎角下随频率增大,升力系数先增大后减小,但整体变化幅度不大,大迎角下随频率增大,升力系数持续性增大;脉冲射流能够推迟失速迎角,扩宽环量控制技术的可用迎角,并且随动量系数增大,这种优势更加明显;借助脉冲射流与定常射流的叠加效应,能够有效缓解脉冲射流作用下的升力脉动现象,达到飞行使用条件。      

S06钢疲劳性能及其概率特性

采用高频疲劳试验方法对新型高强度沉淀硬化马氏体不锈钢S06钢中长寿命疲劳性能进行了测量,结果发现:随着应力水平降低,疲劳裂纹趋向于从试样内部萌生,裂纹内部萌生的试样寿命高于表面萌生的试样寿命,二者分散性很大.为了对S06钢长寿命疲劳数据概率特性进行正确的评估,主要对内部萌生机制下的数据进行了研究:利用定时截尾数据的极大似然估计方法和定时截尾数据的柯尔莫哥洛夫检验方法对长寿命区一定应力水平下的疲劳寿命概率分布情况进行了研究,结果表明疲劳寿命服从对数正态分布;采用考虑越出数据的极大似然方法对S06钢应力寿命数据进行拟合,建立了P-S-N曲线模型;利用P-S-N曲线对S06钢长寿命区疲劳强度概率分布进行了讨论.     

Medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTID) modeling using a dense German GPS network

The MSTIDs are wave-like perturbations of the ionospheric plasma, which cause the most common ionospheric disturbances in mid-latitude regions. Generally the MSTIDs have velocities of several hundred meters per second and wavelengths of several hundred kilometers. The wave-like effect of the MSTID is one of the main obstacles for accurate interpolation of ionospheric corrections in a medium-scale reference GPS network. In this paper we show a new method of detecting and modeling MSTIDs using dense German GPS network. The between-epoch single difference ionospheric delays from a medium scale dense GPS network are used to estimate the parameter of the MSTID e.g. amplitude, wavelength and velocity. The efficiency of the approach is tested with data from about 320 GPS stations in and near Germany. A MSTID wave moving from east to west across Germany was observed at September 27 in 2009. Its wavelength is about 302 km, with a period of ∼7 min and velocity of about 700 m/s.     

虚拟远海环境的建模与渲染技术

通过分波幅和分相位的扰动算法,改进了基于线性风浪谱的圆滑波峰现象;结合SNE(Synthetic Natural Environment)的浪级、风级、浪高,以及平均周期等信息,实现了与环境结合的风浪可视化算法;综合心理声学和音乐声学等主观声音学科,提出了风浪波谱参数的修正方案,并实现了实时风浪噪音算法的均衡器特性参数与增益调参;采用基于流动纹理的过程着色方案;并将环境纹理镜像化后合并,然后进行景象的高斯模糊;着色后修饰环境图像噪声,提高了适用于海洋景象模拟的纹素质量;实现了基于SNE综合自然环境信息的实时远海视听一体化系统,验证了视听算法的有效性.