Radiation risk estimation and its application to human beings in space.

The number of human beings likely to spend time in space will increase as time goes on. While exposures vary according to missions, orbits, shielding, etc., an average space radiation fluence (ignoring solar flares, radiation belts and anomalous regions in space) in locations close to earth is about 10 rad/year with a quality factor of about 5.5. The potential effects of exposure to these fluences include both non-stochastic effects and stochastic effects (cancer and genetic damage). Non-stochastic effects, damage to the lens of the eye, bone marrow or gonads, can be avoided by keeping radiation limits below threshold values. Stochastic effects imply risk at all levels. The magnitude of these risks has been discussed in a number of reports by the UNSCEAR Committee and the BEIR Committee in the USA during 1970-1980. The uncertainties associated with these risks and information which has become available since the last BEIR report is discussed. In considering reasonable limits for exposure in space, acceptable levels for stochastic risks must be based on appropriate comparisons. In view of the limited term of duty of most space workers, a lifetime limit may be appropriate. This lifetime limit might be comparable in terms of risks with limits for radiation workers on the ground but received at a higher annual rate for a shorter time. These and other approaches are expected to be considered by an NCRP Committee currently examining the problem of space radiation hazards.     

Long-term modulation of Galactic Cosmic Radiation and its model for space exploration.

As the human exploration of space has received new attention in the United States, studies find that exposure to space radiation could adversely impact the mission design. Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR), with its very wide range of charges and energies, is particularly important for a mission to Mars, because it imposes a stiff mass penalty for spacecraft shielding. Dose equivalent versus shielding thickness calculations, show a rapid initial drop in exposure with thickness, but an asymptotic behavior at a higher shielding thickness. Uncertainties in the radiobiology are largely unknown. For a fixed radiation risk, this leads to large uncertain ties in shielding thickness for small uncertainties in estimated dose. In this paper we investigate the application of steady-state, spherically-symmetric diffusion-convection theory of solar modulation to individual measurements of differential energy spectra from 1954 to 1989 in order to estimate the diffusion coefficient, kappa (r,t), as a function of time. We have correlated the diffusion coefficient to the Climax neutron monitor rates and show that, if the diffusion coefficient can be separated into independent functions of space and time: kappa (-r,t)=K(t)kappa 0 beta P kappa 1(r), where beta is the particle velocity and P the rigidity, then (i) The time dependent quantity 1/K(t), which is proportional to the deceleration potential, phi(r,t), is linearly related to the Climax neutron monitor counting rate. (ii) The coefficients obtained from hydrogen or helium intensity measurements are the same. (iii) There are different correlation functions for odd and even solar cycles. (iv) The correlation function for the Climax neutron monitor counting rate for given time, t, can be used to estimate mean deceleration parameter phi(t) to within +/- 15% with 90% confidence. We have shown that kappa(r,t) determined from hydrogen and/or helium data, can be used to fit the oxygen and iron differential energy spectra with a root mean square error of about +/- 10%, and essentially independent of the particle charge or energy. We have also examined the ion chamber and 14C measurements which allow the analysis to be extended from the year 1906 to 1990. Using this model we have defined reference GCR spectra at solar minimum and solar maximum. These can be used for space exploration studies and provide a quantitative estimate of the error in dose due to changes in GCR intensities.     

Radiation quality and risk estimation in relation to space missions.

While Q is specified as a function of linear energy transfer (LET) in practice the Q for neutrons has been selected by a judgment decision based on the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) to induce stochastic effects. There are no RBE values for tumor induction by heavy ions or protons in humans. Thus, selection of Q values has been based either on LET (or lineal energy) or RBEs from animal experiments. Estimates of Q for heavy ions in low earth orbit (LEO) range from about 5 to 14. The average Q value of all radiation in LEO has been estimated to be about 1.3. There is a lack of experimental data for RBEs for heavy ions but RBE increases as a function of LET. In the case of the Harderian gland the RBE reaches a maximum of 25-30 between about 100-200 keV/micrometer but does not appear to decrease at higher LETs. The International Commission of Radiological Protection have proposed the use of radiation weighting factors in lieu of quality factors. The weighting factors will range from 1 to 20.     

Radiation exposures during space flight and their measurement.

The paper reviews radiation exposures recorded during space flights of the US and USSR. Most of the data are from manned missions and include discussion of absorbed dose and dose rates as a function of parameters such as altitude, inclination, spacecraft type and shielding. Preliminary data exist on the neutron and HZE-particle component, as well as the LET spectra. For low Earth-orbit missions, the dose encountered is strongly altitude-dependent, with a weaker dependence upon inclination. The doses range from about 6 millirad per day for the Space Transportation System No. 3 flight to about 90 mrad per day for Skylab. The effective quality factor (QF) for the near-Earth orbits and free space has been estimated to be about 1.5 and about 5.5 respectively. Complete shielding from the galactic cosmic rays does not appear practical because of spacecraft weight limitations.     

Radiation risk during long-term spaceflight.

Cosmonauts' exposure to cosmic rays during long-term spaceflight can cause unfavorable effects in health and risk for the crew members' lives. All unfavorable effects induced by exposure should be taken into consideration for the risk estimation. They should include both the acute deterministic effects and delayed effects called stochastic. On the ground the limitation of unfavorable consequences of acute exposure is achieved by means of establishing dose limits. But in space applications this approach can't be acceptable. Establishing a fixed dose limit is adequate to introducing indefinite reserve coefficient and therefore ineffective usage of spacecraft resource. The method of radiation risk calculation caused by acute and delayed effects of cosmonauts' exposure is discussed and substantiated in the report. Peculiarities of the impact of permanent radiation sources (galactic cosmic rays and trapped radiation) and the variable one (solar cosmic rays) are taken into consideration.     

Synergies of Earth science and space exploration

A more flexible policy basis from which to manage our planet in the 21st century is desirable. As one contribution, we note that synergies between space exploration and the preservation of our habitat exist, and that protecting life on Earth requires similar concepts and information as investigations of life beyond the Earth, including the expansion of human presence in space. Instrumentation and data handling to observe both planetary objects and planet Earth are based on similar techniques. Moreover, while planetary surface operations are conducted under different conditions, the technology to probe the surface and subsurface of both the Earth and other planets requires similar tools, such as radar, seismometers, and drilling devices. The Earth observation community has developed some exemplary tools and has featured successful international cooperation in data handling and sharing that could be equally well applied to robotic planetary exploration. Here we propose a network involving both communities that will enable the interchange of scientific insights and the development of new policies and management strategies. Those tools can provide a vital forum through which the management of this planet can be assisted, and in which a new bridge between the Earth-centric and space-centric communities can be built.     

Radiation biology in space: a critical review.

A short summary of the results of radiobiological studies in space or on respective particles on ground will be given. Among the various types of radiation in space, the effect of heavy ions with high energy (HZE-particles) are most essential. Thus, radiobiology in space concerns mostly to the effect of these particles, in cells and in whole organism. Cell death, mutation and malignant transformation are the relevant endpoints, with can be studied on ground with heavy ions of different energy with suitable accelerators or in space, especially by the BIOSTACK concept. In space, however, the effect of microgravity has to be considered as well and there are hints, that under weightlessness the biological effect of radiation may be enhanced. There are still open questions to be answered concerning radioprotection of man in space. Further experiments are necessary.     

Radiation hazards on space missions outside the magnetosphere.

Future space missions outside the magnetosphere will subject astronauts to a hostile and unfamiliar radiation environment. An annual dose equivalent to the blood-forming organs (BFOs) of approximately 0.5 Sv is expected, mostly from heavy ions in the galactic cosmic radiation. On long-duration missions, an anomalously-large solar energetic particle event may occur. Such an event can expose astronauts to up to approximately 25 Gy (skin dose) and up to approximately 2 Sv (BFO dose) with no shielding. The anticipated radiation exposure may necessitate spacecraft design concessions and some restriction of mission activities. In this paper we discuss our model calculations of radiation doses in several exo-magnetospheric environments. Specific radiation shielding strategies are discussed. A new calculation of aluminum equivalents of potential spacecraft shielding materials demonstrates the importance of low-atomic-mass species for protection from galactic cosmic radiation.     

Radiation safety standards: space hazards vs. terrestrial hazards.

The standards currently recommended for use in space travel were perhaps the first risk derived recommendations for dose limitations developed for quasi-occupational circumstances. They were based on data, considerations, and philosophy existing prior to 1970 and considered carcinogenesis primarily. In the intervening twelve years, not only has radiation risk information improved markedly but considerations relating to risk in general have become better known. The earlier recommendations have been examined with respect to changes in risk estimation and it is noted that the same philosophy used today, would probably lead to different dose limitations. However, other philosophies might be used; in particular a comparison of risks between terrestrial occupational radiation circumstances and also with fatal accident rates in a range of industries can be made and might be used in a modified philosophy with respect to risks from carcinogenesis. Developments have also taken place with respect to the knowledge of the biological effects of HZE particles but whether these effects are limiting as compared with radiation induced carcinogenesis is not yet clear. More studies on the effects of HZE particles, now becoming available, are needed. It is recommended that an in depth reexamination be undertaken of the biological effectiveness of space radiations and the philosophy of dose limitations in comparison with other risks.     

Science strategy for human exploration of Mars.

The scientific objectives of Mars exploration can be framed within the overarching theme of exploring Mars as another home for life, both for evidence of past or present life on Mars, and as a potential future home for human life. The two major areas of research within this theme are: 1) determining the relationship between planetary evolution, climate change, and life, and 2) determining the habitability of Mars. Within this framework, this paper discusses the exploration objectives for exobiology, climatology and atmospheric science, geology, and martian resource assessment. Human exploration will proceed in four major phases: 1) Precursor missions which will obtain environmental knowledge necessary for human exploration, 2) Emplacement phase which includes the first few human landings where crews will explore the local area of the landing site; 3) Consolidation phase missions where a permanent base will be constructed and crews will be capable of detailed exploration over regional scales; 4) Utilization phase, in which a continuously occupied permanent Mars base exists and humans will be capable of detailed global exploration of the martian surface. The phases of exploration differ primarily in the range and capabilities of human mobility. In the emplacement phase, an unpressurized rover, similar to the Apollo lunar rover, will be used and will have a range of a few tens of kilometers. In the Consolidation phase, mobility will be via a pressurized all-terrain vehicle capable of expeditions from the base site of several weeks duration. In the Utilization phase, humans will be capable of several months long expeditions to any point on the surface of Mars using a suborbital rocket equipped with habitat, lab, and return vehicle. Because of human mobility limitations, it is important to extend the range and duration of exploration in all phases by using teleoperated rover vehicles. Site selection for human missions to Mars must consider the multi-decade time frame of these four phases. We suggest that operations in the first two phases be focused in the regional area containing the Coprates Quadrangle and adjacent areas.     

Cataract analysis and the assessment of radiation risk in space.

Radiation cataract, a non-stochastic effect on the lens, is readily amenable to non-invasive analysis. Thus, it provides the means to assess radiation risk in space and for long-term monitoring of those who frequent that environment. The importance of such evaluations are underscored by the uncertainties associated with the assignment of quality factors for the effects of heavy charged particles constituting cosmic and solar radiation. Experimental studies were conducted using albino rats to evaluate the cataractogenic potential of 570 MeV/amu Argon ions administered as both single and protracted doses. The cataract studies and investigations of quantitative cytopathological changes associated with them indicate that as the dose of heavy particles decreases, the relative biological effectiveness, compared to X rays, increases. Fractionating the exposures not only failed to reduce the cataractogenic effect but caused a dose-dependent enhancement in the time of onset of opacification. Cytopathologically, the damage caused by heavy particles, when compared to low-LET radiation was found to be quantitatively dissimilar but qualitatively identical. In addition, damage which might be consistent with microlesions was not evident. The data indicates that as regards the cataractogenic potential of heavy particles at low doses an assignment of a Quality Factor (QF) of at least 40 may be in order.     

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment.

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.     

Non-subjective cataract analysis and its application in space radiation risk assessment.

Experimental animal studies and human observations suggest that the question is not whether or not prolonged space missions will cause cataracts to appear prematurely in the astronauts, but when and to what degree. Historically the major impediment to radiation cataract follow-up has been the necessarily subjective nature of assessing the degree of lens transparency. This has spurred the development of instruments which produce video images amenable to digital analysis. One such system, the Zeiss Scheimpflug slit lamp measuring system (SLC), was incorporated into our ongoing studies of radiation cataractogenesis. It was found that the Zeiss SLC measuring system has high resolution and permits the acquisition of reproducible images of the anterior segment of the eye. Our results, based on about 650 images of the rats lens, and followed over a period of 91 weeks of radiation cataract development, showed that the integrated optical density (IOD) of the lens correlated well with conventional assessment with the added advantages of objectivity, permanent and transportable records and linearity as cataracts become more severe. This continuous data acquisition, commencing with cataract onset, can proceed through more advanced stages. The SLC exhibits much greater sensitivity reflected in a continuously progressive severity despite the artifactual plateaus in staging which occur using conventional scoring methods. Systems such as the Zeiss SLC should be used to monitor astronauts frequent visits to low earth orbit to obtain a longitudinal data-base on the influence of this activity on the lens.     

Influence of nuclear de-excitation on observables relevant for space exploration

The composition of the space radiation environment inside spacecrafts is modified by the interaction with shielding material, with equipment and even with the astronauts’ bodies. Accurate quantitative estimates of the effects of nuclear reactions are necessary, for example, for dose estimation and prediction of single-event-upset rates. To this end, it is necessary to construct predictive models for nuclear reactions, which usually consist of an intranuclear-cascade or quantum-molecular-dynamics stage, followed by a nuclear-de-excitation stage.     

How human sleep in space--investigations during space flights.

Sleep problems have been observed during many of the space flights. The existence of poor quality of sleep, fatigue, insomnia or different alterations in sleep structure, organization and sleep cyclicity have been established. Nevertheless results obtained from investigations of human sleep on board manned space vehicles show that it is possible to keep sleep patterns related to the restorative and adaptive processes. For the first time in the frame of the "Intercosmos" program a multi-channel system for recording and analysis of sleep in space was constructed by scientists of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and was installed on board the manned Mir orbiting station. In 1988 during the joint Bulgarian-Russian space flight continues recording of electro-physiological parameters necessary to estimate the sleep stages and sleep organization was made. These investigations were continued in next space flights of different prolongation. The results were compared with the findings obtained under the conditions during the pre- and post-flight periods.     

Toward a global space exploration program: A stepping stone approach

In response to the growing importance of space exploration in future planning, the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration (PEX) was chartered to provide independent scientific advice to support the development of exploration programs and to safeguard the potential scientific assets of solar system objects. In this report, PEX elaborates a stepwise approach to achieve a new level of space cooperation that can help develop world-wide capabilities in space science and exploration and support a transition that will lead to a global space exploration program. The proposed stepping stones are intended to transcend cross-cultural barriers, leading to the development of technical interfaces and shared legal frameworks and fostering coordination and cooperation on a broad front. Input for this report was drawn from expertise provided by COSPAR Associates within the international community and via the contacts they maintain in various scientific entities. The report provides a summary and synthesis of science roadmaps and recommendations for planetary exploration produced by many national and international working groups, aiming to encourage and exploit synergies among similar programs. While science and technology represent the core and, often, the drivers for space exploration, several other disciplines and their stakeholders (Earth science, space law, and others) should be more robustly interlinked and involved than they have been to date. The report argues that a shared vision is crucial to this linkage, and to providing a direction that enables new countries and stakeholders to join and engage in the overall space exploration effort. Building a basic space technology capacity within a wider range of countries, ensuring new actors in space act responsibly, and increasing public awareness and engagement are concrete steps that can provide a broader interest in space exploration, worldwide, and build a solid basis for program sustainability. By engaging developing countries and emerging space nations in an international space exploration program, it will be possible to create a critical bottom-up support structure to support program continuity in the development and execution of future global space exploration frameworks. With a focus on stepping stones, COSPAR can support a global space exploration program that stimulates scientists in current and emerging spacefaring nations, and that will invite those in developing countries to participate—pursuing research aimed at answering outstanding questions about the origins and evolution of our solar system and life on Earth (and possibly elsewhere). COSPAR, in cooperation with national and international science foundations and space-related organizations, will advocate this stepping stone approach to enhance future cooperative space exploration efforts.     

Fragmentation of 1 GeV/nucleon iron ions in thick targets relevant for space exploration.

We have measured charged nuclear fragments produced by 1 GeV/nucleon 56Fe ions interacting with aluminium, polyethylene and lead. These materials are relevant for assessment of radiation risk for manned space flight. The data will be presented in a form suitable for comparison with models of nuclear fragmentation and transport, including linear energy transfer (LET) spectrum, fluence for iron and fragments, event-tack- and event-dose-averaged LET, total dose and iron contribution to dose.     

Mathematical model for assessment of radiation risk on long space missions.

A mathematical model is developed which describes the dynamics of radiation-induced mortality in mammalian populations. It relates statistical biometric functions with statistical characteristics and dynamics of an organism's critical system. In the framework of the model the effects of low and very low dose rates of chronic radiation on mice are simulated. Respectively, thrombocytopoietic and granulocytopoietic systems are considered as the critical ones. To calculate the dynamics of these systems, mathematical models are applied, too. In accordance with experimental data, the mortality model reproduces on quantitative level both increased and decreased mortality rates in populations of LAF1 mice, which were chronically exposed, respectively, to low and very low level radiation. All this makes it feasible to use the model as a basis for risk assessments of low level long-term irradiation.