Investigation of national policy shifts to impact orbital debris environments

Low earth orbit has become increasingly congested as the satellite population has grown over the past few decades, making orbital debris a major concern for the operational stability of space assets. This congestion was highlighted by the collision of the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 satellites in 2009. This paper addresses the current state of orbital debris regulation in the United States and asks what might be done through policy change to mitigate risks in the orbital debris environment. A brief discussion of the nature of orbital debris addresses the major contributing factors including size classes, locations of population concentrations, projected satellite populations, and current challenges presented in using post-mission active debris removal to mitigate orbital debris. An overview of the current orbital debris regulatory structure of the United States reveals the fragmented nature of having six regulating bodies providing varying levels of oversight to their markets. A closer look into the regulatory policy of these agencies shows that, while they all take direction from The U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices, this policy is a guideline with no real penalty for non-compliance. Various policy solutions to the orbital debris problem are presented, ranging from a business as usual approach to a consolidated regulation system which would encourage spacecraft operator compliance. The positive aspects of these options are presented as themes that would comprise an effective policy shift towards successful LEO conservation. Potential economic and physical limitations to this policy approach are also addressed.     

空间碎片环境现状与主动移除技术

概述了空间碎片环境现状和对航天活动的影响,讨论了空间碎片主动移除对保持空间碎片环境稳定的必要性。空间碎片研究重心先从防护转向减缓,再转到主动移除,最终是清洁空间。评述了空间碎片主动移除技术现状,指出天基激光主动移除空间碎片技术具有很好的工程应用潜力。     

Density and mass distributions of orbital debris

Area-to-mass ratios for orbital debris tracked by the U.S. Space Command were calculated from observed changes in apogee and perigee altitude due to atmospheric drag. The area-to-masses observed for the orbital debris were similar to those found for debris from laboratory breakups, and suggest that much of the debris is composed of crumpled thin plates or of insulation material with low effective density. Areas for the debris objects were derived from radar cross-section data. Object masses were calculated from the ratio of the RCS-derived area to the area-to-mass ratio. Analysis of the distributions of fragment masses from the breakups suggests that in many cases, only a portion of the initial object breaks up into small fragments.     

航天器空间碎片超高速撞击防护的若干问题

空间碎片对航天器的超高速撞击损伤已受到国内外的普遍重视,如何使在轨航天器对空间碎片进行有效防护是航天器长寿命、高可靠安全运行的重要保障。文章概述了空间碎片环境现状、空间碎片超高速撞击危害以及国内外空间碎片防护的研究现状和趋势。重点介绍了航天器常用的Whipple防护结构及其各种衍生结构的防护性能和弹道极限方程（BLE）,评述了这些防护结构防护性能的优缺点。     

New insights on the orbital debris collision hazard at GEO

An analysis is performed of the orbital debris collision hazard to operational spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit (GEO). As part of the examination, the contribution of individual components of the population are considered and presented to provide a clearer linkage between object characteristic and resulting risk. Our examination of GEO collision risk reveals several critical new insights: (1) the current probability of collision in GEO is relatively low, yet the future is difficult to predict due to our limited ability to observe objects in GEO and the uncertainty in past and future debris-generating events in GEO; (2) the probability of collision in GEO is not uniform by longitude — it is seven times greater in regions centered about the geopotential wells; (3) the probability of a mission-terminating collision is greatly dependent upon the approximately 2200 objects in the 10 cm–1 m range observed in GEO but not yet cataloged; (4) hardware relocated to GEO “graveyard” disposal orbits pose a potential additional, but not fully understood, collision hazard to operational GEO satellites; and (5) the collision hazard throughout the course of a day or year is highly episodic (i.e. non-uniform).     

Biobjective planning of an active debris removal mission

The growth of the orbital debris population has been a concern to the international space community for several years. Recent studies have shown that the debris environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO, defined as the region up to 2000 km altitude) has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase even if all future launches are suspended. As the orbits of these objects often overlap the trajectories of satellites, debris create a potential collision risk. However, several studies show that about 5 objects per year should be removed in order to keep the future LEO environment stable. In this article, we propose a biobjective time dependent traveling salesman problem (BiTDTSP) model for the problem of optimally removing debris and use a branch and bound approach to deal with it.     

Active debris removal: Recent progress and current trends

According to all available findings at international level, the Kessler syndrome, increase of the number of space debris in Low Earth Orbits due to mutual collisions, appears now to be a fact, triggered mainly by several major break-ups in orbit which occurred since 2007. The time may have come to study how to clean this fundamentally useful orbital region in an active way.CNES has studied potential solutions for more than 12 years! The paper aims at reviewing the current status of these activities.The high level requirements are fundamental, and have to be properly justified. The working basis, as confirmed through IADC studies consists in the removal of 5–10 integer objects from the overcrowded orbits, spent upper stages or old satellites, as identified by NASA.The logic of CNES activities consider a stepped approach aiming at progressively gaining the required Technological Readiness Level on the features required for Active Debris Removal which have not yet been demonstrated in orbit. The rendezvous with a non-cooperative, un-prepared, tumbling debris is essential. Following maturation gained with Research and Technology programs, a set of small orbital demonstrators could enable a confidence high enough to perform a full end to end demonstration performing the de-orbiting of a large debris and paving the way for the development of a first generation operational de-orbiter.The internal CNES studies, led together by the Toulouse Space Centre and the Paris Launcher Directorate, have started in 2008 and led to a detailed System Requirements Document used for the Industrial studies.Three industrial teams did work under CNES contract during 2011, led by Thales Alenia Space, Bertin Technologies and Astrium Space Transportation, with numerous sub-contractors. Their approaches were very rich, complementary, and innovative. The second phase of studies began mid-2012. Some key questions nevertheless have to be resolved, and correspond generally to current IADC actions:The casualty risk associated to a “passive” de-orbitation is of paramount importance, major driver between passive and active re-entry,The residual movement of debris is crucial for the interfacing phase, whichever the solution is,The debris physical state in orbit is a major question,Some solutions increase the collision risk, but for a limited time period; we may not have yet the appropriate tools.The paper gives a status of where we stand, of the cooperation with the international partners, and raises the questions which remain open and have to be dealt with in the coming months.     

天基监测空间碎片有效载荷效能评估方法研究

介绍了用于天基空间碎片监测的主要载荷,包括可见光监测相机、微波雷达和激光雷达。根据评价指标体系,按照评价指标设计的原则,设计出评价指标的体系结构,建立基于AHP（采用层次分析法）的综合指标评估模型。利用评估模型实现对三种监测载荷进行评价分析,选择出效能最优的有效载荷。为天基监测载荷评估提供科学依据与评估方法。     

Evaluation of a satellite constellation for active debris removal

This paper analyzes an example of a three-dimensional constellation of debris removal satellites and proposes an effective constellation using a delta-V analysis that discusses the advisability of rendezvousing satellites with space debris. Lambert?s Equation was used to establish a means of analysis to construct a constellation of debris removal satellites, which has a limit of delta-V injection by evaluating the amount of space debris that can be rendezvoused by a certain number of removal satellite. Consequently, we determine a constellation of up to 38 removal satellites for debris removal, where the number of space debris rendezvoused by a single removal satellite is not more than 25, removing up to 584 pieces of debris total. Even if we prepare 38 removal satellites in their respective orbits, it is impossible to remove all of the space debris. Although many removal satellites, over 100 for example, can remove most of the space debris, this method is economically disproportionate. However, we can also see the removal satellites are distributed nearly evenly. Accordingly, we propose a practical two-stage strategy. The first stage is to implement emergent debris removal with the 38 removal satellites. When we find a very high probability of collision between a working satellite and space debris, one of the removal satellites in the constellation previously constructed in orbit initiates a maneuver of emergent debris removal. The second stage is a long-term space debris removal strategy to suppress the increase of space debris derived from collisions among the pieces of space debris. The constellation analyzed in this paper, which consists of the first 38 removal satellites, can remove half of the over 1000 dangerous space debris among others, and then the constellation increases the number of the following removal satellites in steps. At any rate, an adequate orbital configuration and constellation form is very important for both space debris removal and economic efficiency. Though the size of constellation of debris removal satellites would be small originally, such a constellation of satellites should be one of the initial constellations of removal satellites to ensure the safety of the future orbital environment.     

Space policy challenges facing the Barack Obama administration

President Barack Obama faces space policy challenges in security, commercial and civil areas in an era in which the use of space assets for these ends is irreversible. The very future of space is linked to addressing the challenges within the first term of the Obama administration. This paper draws on, but does not attempt to summarize, discussions at the National Space Forum 2008 organized by the Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies at the United States Air Force Academy and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. The goal of the forum was to examine the key decisions that will need to be made in regard to space policy by facilitating debate among the security, commercial and civil space sectors, and the broader national policy community. The paper focuses on choices which, for budgetary or other reasons, cannot be delayed. A brief discussion of the issues surrounding each choice is presented, followed by the implications of pursuing different choices. One key assumption underlies everything: resources available for activities in space will not grow significantly in real terms over the course of the Obama administration.     

Hypervelocity impact testing of advanced materials and structures for micrometeoroid and orbital debris shielding

A series of 66 hypervelocity impact experiments have been performed to assess the potential of various materials (aluminium, titanium, copper, stainless steel, nickel, nickel/chromium, reticulated vitreous carbon, silver, ceramic, aramid, ceramic glass, and carbon fibre) and structures (monolithic plates, open-cell foam, flexible fabrics, rigid meshes) for micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) shielding. Arranged in various single-, double-, and triple-bumper configurations, screening tests were performed with 0.3175 cm diameter Al2017-T4 spherical projectiles at nominally 6.8 km/s and normal incidence. The top performing shields were identified through target damage assessments and their respective weight. The top performing candidate shield at the screening test condition was found to be a double-bumper configuration with a 0.25 mm thick Al3003 outer bumper, 6.35 mm thick 40 PPI aluminium foam inner bumper, and 1.016 mm thick Al2024-T3 rear wall (equal spacing between bumpers and rear wall). In general, double-bumper candidates with aluminium plate outer bumpers and foam inner bumpers were consistently found to be amongst the top performers. For this impact condition, potential weight savings of at least 47% over conventional all-aluminium Whipple shields are possible by utilizing the investigated materials and structures. The results of this study identify materials and structures of interest for further, more in-depth, impact investigations.     

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but will be insufficient to stabilize the environment. To better limit the growth of the future debris population, the remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to illustrate and quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. An effective removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 5 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.     

Will space run out of space? The orbital debris problem and its mitigation

An appraisal of current and future risks from space debris is presented with the aid of calculations carried out by the MASTER model. The efficacy of various technical options -- such as fuel venting, de-orbiting and use of a graveyard orbit -- for counteracting the problem is discussed. The article then focuses on governmental and international cooperative measures and looks at the recent work done by subcommittees of the UN COPUOS.     

USA-193 decay predictions using public domain trajectory data and assessment of the post-intercept orbital debris cloud

In early 2008, the need arose to predict the orbital decay of the American spacecraft USA-193, whose characteristics, function and orbit were classified information. With no orbit data and independent Italian tracking capability available, we turned our attention on the orbits determined by a worldwide network of about 20 visual satellite observers. The orbits of USA-193 obtained from their visual observations were therefore used as the sole source of orbit information. Contrary to our expectations, this exercise was extremely successful and we learned a lot in the process. The orbits provided by the visual observers were very accurate for such a low satellite (although the minimum and very stable level of solar activity helped considerably); however, data gaps of a few days were sometimes possible, due to unfavorable pass geometry or weather and light conditions. In any case, the orbital period and the semimajor axis were so accurate that it was possible for us to obtain very good decay fits using special perturbation software, including various atmospheric density models together with all the other relevant perturbing accelerations. We were therefore able to estimate accurate values of the ballistic parameter and the resulting decay and reentry predictions were extremely stable. Amateur optical observations and images of USA-193 had also led to a rough estimation of the shape and sizes of the satellite, revealing that the solar arrays had never been deployed. With this information, and taking into account our estimates of the ballistic parameter, we obtained reasonable and consistent values of the spacecraft mass. Based on previous reentry fragmentation analyses, we were then able to guess the expected USA-193 casualty area, casualty expectancy, debris ground footprint and probability of impact in Italy. Lastly, after the decision by the US Government to destroy the satellite, we independently predicted the interception time windows and the post-event ground tracks. Following the successful spacecraft breakup, we analyzed the evolution of the resulting debris cloud and assessed its (very limited) adverse impact on the circumterrestrial environment.     

Between heaven and earth: The legal challenges of human space travel

Since the first space object was launched into orbit in 1957, humankind has been engaged in a constant effort to realise ever more ambitious plans for space travel. Probably the single most important element in this ongoing evolution is the development of technology capable of transporting large numbers of passengers into outer space on a commercial basis. Within the foreseeable future, space will no longer be the sole domain of professionally trained astronauts or the exceptionally wealthy.The prospects for both suborbital and orbital private human access to space give rise to some interesting and difficult legal questions. It also opens up an exciting opportunity to develop an adequate system of legal regulation to deal with these activities. The existing international legal regimes covering air and space activities are not well suited to large-scale commercial access to space, largely because they were developed at a time when such activities were not a principal consideration in the mind of the drafters. The lack of legal clarity represents a major challenge and must be addressed as soon as possible, to provide for appropriate standards and further encourage (not discourage) such activities.This article will examine some of the more pressing legal issues associated with the regulation of space transportation of passengers on a commercial basis, seen in the light of Article 1 of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which states that the ‘exploration and use of outer space […] shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries […] and shall be the province of all mankind’. An appropriate balance must be found between the commercial and technological opportunities that will arise and the principles upon which the development of international space law have thus far been based.     

Biobjective planning of GEO debris removal mission with multiple servicing spacecrafts

The mission planning of GEO debris removal with multiple servicing spacecrafts (SScs) is studied in this paper. Specifically, the SScs are considered to be initially on the GEO belt, and they should rendezvous with debris of different orbital slots and different inclinations, remove them to the graveyard orbit and finally return to their initial locations. Three key problems should be resolved here: task assignment, mission sequence planning and transfer trajectory optimization for each SSc. The minimum-cost, two-impulse phasing maneuver is used for each rendezvous. The objective is to find a set of optimal planning schemes with minimum fuel cost and travel duration. Considering this mission as a hybrid optimal control problem, a mathematical model is proposed. A modified multi-objective particle swarm optimization is employed to address the model. Numerous examples are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and solution method. In this paper, single-SSc and multiple-SSc scenarios with the same amount of fuel are compared. Numerous experiments indicate that for a definite GEO debris removal mission, that which alternative (single-SSc or multiple-SSc) is better (cost less fuel and consume less travel time) is determined by many factors. Although in some cases, multiple-SSc scenarios may perform worse than single-SSc scenarios, the extra costs are considered worth the gain in mission safety and robustness.     

天基轻气炮发射清除低轨碎片方案及关键技术分析

文章分析了现有的空间碎片清除方式,并以800~1200 km低地球轨道高度上1~10 cm量级的空间碎片为清除目标,提出了天基轻气炮清除碎片的新方法。首先分析了轻气炮有效载荷在典型参数下的弹丸加速能力;之后根据将碎片降轨使其坠入大气层烧毁的设想,提出天基轻气炮共面清除碎片的方式,并选择轨道高度800 km的圆轨道作为碎片运行轨道进行可行性分析。计算表明,对半径10 cm、厚度1 cm的铝合金圆板碎片(质量211.95 g),使用初速1 km/s、重10 g的黏性弹丸可按任务方案达到清除效果。此外,计算出该参数弹丸对轨道高度800~1200 km的圆轨道上可清除的最大碎片质量为500~825 g,证明轻气炮弹丸对1~10 cm的碎片具有较强的清除能力。最后,分析了以轻气炮为有效载荷的航天器在完成清除碎片任务时的关键技术。     

天基激光清除空间碎片方案与可行性研究

介绍了激光烧蚀驱动机理和空间碎片降轨清除原理,通过分析计算确立了空间碎片降轨清除判据和2 种降轨清除模式。理论计算给出了清除1200、800 和500 km 三个典型低地球轨道上空间碎片所必须的速度增量、激光器功率、单脉冲能量、激光发射镜直径等主要参数值。对比分析显示现有的硬件指标和条件能够满足清除低地球轨道上空间碎片的设计要求,因此,天基激光清除空间碎片方案从技术角度是可行的。     

A space based radar on a micro-satellite for in-situ detection of small orbital debris

The increase in the number of satellites in the Near Earth Orbit is exponential. The consequent increase in pollution of the orbital environment is of growing concern to the international community. There are currently only two observation systems available for measurement of orbital debris. Ground based radar and telescopes can detect objects larger than about 7 cm. Passive space based systems provide an accurate statistical estimation of flux for debris smaller than about 0.1 mm in size. Consequently, there is no way of obtaining information about debris in the millimeter-size range. Considering that the relative speed between objects in space is commonly in the km/s range, millimeter sized debris carry enough energy to be deadly to astronauts or to totally destroy the functioning of any satellite. Then National space agencies have recommended launching orbital spacecraft carrying debris detection experiments for gaining a better understanding of small debris.CNES (the French Space Agency) is developing a new family of micro-satellites, that will make possible to put into orbit a totally new system of radar that could measure in-situ flux of debris. We present results of this system analysis, which would cumulate the advantages of both ground-based radar and in orbit passive experiments.The proposed method for detection is quite original and allows the radar to act like a band-pass filter with respect to the debris diameter. The optimum frequency is shown to be in the Ka-band. Two points are critical in the definition of the radar: the average power available and the false alarm probability in the detection criterion. Therefore, we present a special receiver chain in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. The estimate of the radial velocity through Doppler frequency measurement may be used to discriminate orbital debris from meteoroids. This system could be built today using an existing Continuous Wave amplifier. Several hundreds of objects per year could be detected yielding an accurate statistical estimation.The orbital debris radar would be a major contribution to our knowledge of millimeter sized debris. This experiment would contribute to making the current models more accurate at all inclinations. The micro-satellite concept would make the orbital debris radar mission cheap enough for considering a constellation of such satellites.     

空间碎片软捕获姿轨控模型构建与仿真

为构建利用柔性机械臂捕获空间碎片的系统仿真模型,首先分析梳理空间碎片捕获典型任务流程,包括轨道转移、位置保持、路径规划、动量稳定控制等阶段;然后针对任务流程分别搭建基于Simu Link的路径规划、动量缓冲控制、姿态控制、动力学和轨道仿真等子系统;各个子系统之间以TCP/IP的方式进行数据交互,最终完成空间碎片软捕获任务姿轨控仿真系统的构建。