概率具有普遍意义

在事物必然的性质、方向和由此决定的活动范围之外,它发生、发展的每一具体变化都是偶然的.为了抓住偶然,就要求助于概率,概率已经成为我们的重要工具.     

电子干扰下GPS接收机C／A码捕获概率的分析

本文从对GPS信号的结构出发，在单频、宽带及部分频带干扰模式下，分析了GPS接收机C／A码捕获过程的检测概率和虚警概率等性能指标。分析结果表明，当干扰功率超过一定值后，虽然检测概率有所增加，但虚警概率将急剧恶化，在中频信干比相同时，窄带干扰较宽带干扰效果明显。     

地空导弹武器系统杀伤目标概率计算模型

本文通过对雷达发现目标概率、单发导弹杀伤目标概率等问题的分析，导出了地空导弹武器系统杀伤目标概率的计算模型，为定量分析地空导弹武器系统的作战能力提供了依据。     

对巡航导弹撞地有关因素的仿真研究

研究了巡航导弹低空地形跟踪飞行的撞地概率问题，针对地形随机输入和低空风随机干扰共同作用的情况，研究了撞地概率的仿真计算方法，在给定条件下求出了它们与撞地概率的关系曲线，分析了它们对撞地概率的影响，从中可以看出，协调参数，能有效降低撞地概率，提高巡航导弹的作战效能。     

主导概率数据关联及算法

本文给出主导概率数据关联（ＤＰＤＡ）及算法，定义主导联合事件和主导概率，考虑实际目标环境可行联合事件出现为非等概率，导出主导概率数据关联计算方法，它无需计算所有行联合事件的联合率，从而克服了联合概率数据关联（ＪＰＤＡ）的组合问题，本文证明了ＤＰＤＡ性能上限不低于ＪＰＤＡ，下限低于ＰＤＡ，而下限出现的概率极小。本文给出了ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ仿真表明ＤＰＤＡ算法具有很好的性能和较高的实用价值。     

稳健可靠性：概念、方法和应用

传统的可靠性是由概率定义的，认为“系统失效概率越小，系统越可靠”，针对这种概率可靠性要求较多的统计数据和结果难以验证等的固有缺陷，国外90年代提出了一种新的、非概率的可靠性概念，这种非概率可靠性认为“系统性能波动的范围越小，系统越可靠”。或者说“系统抗干扰的能力越强，系统越可靠”。这正是稳健性的概念，因此可以称之为稳健可靠性。对于不确定的信息较少、不确定程度较严重的工程问题，它是一种理想的不确定性分析模型。稳健可靠性概念的提出，为可靠性工程的发展开辟了新的途径。本文结合算例介绍了稳健可靠性的基本概念、解题思路、国内外研究近况和发展前景。     

基于概率数据关联的地形辅助导航算法

地形辅助导航是解决惯性导航系统定位误差随时间不断增大的缺点重要方法之一，论文在分析概率数据关联滤波器的基础上，提出了一种基于概率数据关联滤波的新的地形辅助导航算法。算法把满足一定条件的相关值作为滤波器的有效量测，把飞行器的位置作为状态，建立了基于概率数据关联的地形辅助导航模型，利用概率数据关联滤波算法计算飞行器的位置坐标。仿真结果表明该算法的正确匹配率、均方根误差和圆概率误差均优干TERCOM算法。     

基于误差随机过程无人飞行器的撞地概率计算公式

在误差随机过程为平稳正态过程的假设下，研究了无人飞行器撞地概率的计算问题。在已知地形数据的情况下，从理论上推导出无人飞行器只受到垂直干扰时的撞地概率的计算公式；并在仅利用地形特征参数的情况下，得到了较为简洁的计算公式，在进行无人飞行器航迹规划过程中可以实现撞地概率的实时计算。给出了无人飞行器既受到垂直干扰又受到水平干扰时的撞地概率的计算公式，并对它们的计算作了简化，得到了一个近似计算公式。讨论了撞地概率计算公式的应用问题，分析了误差随机过程的标准差、飞行器机动带宽及地形标准差对撞地概率的影响。     

非线性相对运动的飞行器碰撞概率研究

发展了一种非线性相对运动情况下的飞行器碰撞概率描述和计算方法。采用拟最大瞬时碰撞概率和总碰撞概率两个主要指标来定量描述飞行器碰撞的危险性，并针对这两个指标发展了相应的计算方法。对于拟最大瞬时碰撞概率的计算，首先需要在相对轨迹上寻找最小相对距离或最大概率密度的点，然后在这个点上计算拟最大瞬时碰撞概率。对于总碰撞概率的计算，由于总碰撞概率的增量可以表示成一个时间的函数，因此总碰撞概率的计算就是一个在时间域上的积分。所建立的这种描述和计算方法适用于相对速度和误差协方差矩阵随时间任意变化的情况。数值算例表明所提出的指标比单纯采用总碰撞概率能够更好的描述飞行器的碰撞危险性，并且碰撞概率的计算方法和线性相对运动情况下的计算方法是兼容的。     

概率风险评价技术及应用

介绍了概率风险评价技术的基本概念，详细分析了概率风险评价的实施过程，包括目标定义和系统分析、初因事件识别、事件链建模、故障模式确定、数据收集和分析、模型的量化和集成、不确定性分析和结果分析等步骤。最后通过一个航天器推进系统的示例说明概率风险评价技术的分析结果及应用范围。     

Humans to Mars: a feasibility and cost-benefit analysis

Mars is a compelling astrobiological target, and a human mission would provide an opportunity to collect immense amounts of scientific data. Exploration alone, however, cannot justify the increased risk. Instead, three factors drive a human mission: economics, education, and exploration. A human mission has a unique potential to inspire the next generation of young people to enter critically needed science and engineering disciplines. A mission is economically feasible, and the research and development program put in place for a human mission would propel growth in related high-technology industries. The main hurdles are human physiological responses to 1–2 years of radiation and microgravity exposure. However, enabling technologies are sufficiently mature in these areas that they can be developed within a few decade timescale. Hence, the decision of whether or not to undertake a human mission to Mars is a political decision, and thus, educational and economic benefits are the crucial factors.     

The development of a Russian communication satellite of small class, operating in the geostationary and high-elliptical orbits

In 1994-1995 Lavochkin Association (Russia) together with the other enterprises in accordance with technical requirements of the Russian Space agency, developed a new Russian communication satellite of a small class that will operate in both the geostationary (GSO) and high-elliptical (HEO) orbits. This satellite may be injected into operational orbits using a SOYUZ-2 launch vehicle (LV) and a FREGAT upper stage (US) from Plesetsk and Baykonur space launch sites (SLS).The main reason for creating such a satellite was to decrease the cost of the support and development of the Russian communication geostationary satellites group.Russian satellites Horizont, Express, Ekran and Gals, which operate in GSO, are the basis of the space segment for communications, radio and TV broadcasting. All of these satellites are injected into GSO by the PROTON LV. PROTON is a launch vehicle of a heavy class. The use of a middle class LV instead of a heavy class will allow to reduce considerably the launch cost. The change of a heavy class LV to a LV of middle class determined one economic reason for this project. Besides, the opportunity to launch S/C into GSO from Russian Plesetsk SLS increases the independence of Russia in the domain of space communications, despite the presence of the contract with Kazachstan about the rent of Baykonur SLS. Finally, use of small satellites with a rather small number of transponders is more effective than the use of big satellites. It will allow also to increase a satellite group (by the launch of additional satellites) precisely in accordance to the development of the ground segment.     

Conceptual study and key technology development for Mars Aeroflyby sample collection

Conceptual study of Mars Aeroflyby Sample Collection (MASC) is conducted as a part of the next Mars exploration mission currently entertained in Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. In the mission scenario, an atmospheric entry vehicle is flown into the Martian atmosphere, collects the Martian dust particles as well as atmospheric gases during the guided hypersonic flight, exits the Martian atmosphere, and is inserted into a parking orbit from which a return system departs for the earth to deliver the dust and gas samples. In order to accomplish a controlled flight and a successful orbit insertion, aeroassist orbit transfer technologies are introduced into the guidance and control system. System analysis is conducted to assess the feasibility and to make a conceptual design, finding that the MASC system is feasible at the minimum system mass of 600 kg approximately. The aerogel, which is one of the candidates for the dust sample collector, is assessed by arcjet heating tests to examine its behavior when exposed to high-temperature gases, as well as by particle impingement tests to evaluate its dust capturing capability.     

Mission analysis and systems design of a near-term and far-term pole-sitter mission

This paper provides a detailed mission analysis and systems design of a near-term and far-term pole-sitter mission. The pole-sitter concept was previously introduced as a solution to the poor temporal resolution of polar observations from highly inclined, low Earth orbits and the poor high-latitude coverage from geostationary orbit. It considers a spacecraft that is continuously above either the north or south pole and, as such, can provide real-time, continuous and hemispherical coverage of the polar regions. Being on a non-Keplerian orbit, a continuous thrust is required to maintain the pole-sitter position. For this, two different propulsion strategies are proposed, which result in a near-term pole-sitter mission using solar electric propulsion (SEP) and a far-term pole-sitter mission where the SEP thruster is hybridized with a solar sail. For both propulsion strategies, minimum propellant pole-sitter orbits are designed. In order to maximize the spacecraft mass at the start of the operations phase of the mission, the transfer from Earth to the pole-sitter orbit is designed and optimized assuming either a Soyuz or an Ariane 5 launch. The maximized mass upon injection into the pole-sitter orbit is subsequently used in a detailed mass budget analysis that will allow for a trade-off between mission lifetime and payload mass capacity. Also, candidate payloads for a range of applications are investigated. Finally, transfers between north and south pole-sitter orbits are considered to overcome the limitations in observations due to the tilt of the Earth's rotational axis that causes the poles to be alternately situated in darkness. It will be shown that in some cases these transfers allow for propellant savings, enabling a further extension of the pole-sitter mission.     

Human spaceflight and an asteroid redirect mission: Why?

The planning of human spaceflight programmes is an exercise in careful rationing of a scarce and expensive resource. Current NASA plans are to develop the new capability for human-rated launch into space to replace the Space Transportation System (STS), more commonly known as the Space Shuttle, combined with a heavy lift capability, and followed by an eventual Mars mission. As an intermediate step towards Mars, NASA proposes to venture beyond Low Earth Orbit to cis-lunar space to visit a small asteroid which will be captured and moved to lunar orbit by a separate robotic mission. The rationale for this and how to garner support from the scientific community for such an asteroid mission are discussed. Key points that emerge are that a programme usually has greater legitimacy when it emerges from public debate, mostly via a Presidential Commission, a report by the National Research Council or a Decadal Review of science goals etc. Also, human spaceflight missions need to have support from a wide range of interested communities. Accordingly, an outline scientific case for a human visit to an asteroid is made. Further, it is argued here that the scientific interest in an asteroid mission needs to be included early in the planning stages, so that the appropriate capabilities (here the need for drilling cores and carrying equipment to, and returning samples from, the asteroid) can be included.     

移动自组网MAC协议组网和业务调度算法研究

为满足无中心的移动自组网对多变网络拓扑、实时通信和网络规模可扩展的需求,提出一种网络建立时间短、时延短和信道利用率高的MAC协议策略。通过网络分簇组网算法建立健壮高效的组网模型,利用时隙动态复用算法实现基于竞争的TDMA接入协议,从而提高信道利用率和网络吞吐量。在NS2中对单簇20个节点作性能仿真,分析多种队形的网络拓扑以及端到端时延,并对固定TDMA和基于竞争的TDMA接入方式做了对比实验。仿真结果显示,各种拓扑结构的网络建立时间都很短,基于竞争的TDMA接入方式相比固定TDMA可获得更高的网络吞吐量和更短的端到端时延。     

导弹机动突防滑模制导律

为了得到一种用于导弹机动突防的制导律,我们在制导律设计中令视线角速率跟踪正弦有界震荡信号.在导弹机动突防过程中,导弹自动驾驶仪的惯性滞后会影响制导精度.我们利用递推李雅普诺夫设计方法推导出了一种考虑自动驾驶仪惯性的运动跟踪滑模制导律,它可以令视线角速率跟踪给定的指令信号.仿真结果表明,这种制导律可以令导弹机动突防成功的概率提高到89%,而且在自动驾驶仪滞后情况下的制导精度很高,脱靶量仅有0.3mm.     

Rats in a transparent morris water maze use elemental and configural geometry of landmarks as well as distance to the pool wall

The aim of this study is to evaluate whatare the dimensions of a panorama of discretelandmarks that a rodent will store in order toreturn to a previously visited target. Ratswere trained to locate a hidden platform in acircular pool of clouded water set within aquasi-spherical enclosure. In order to find theplatform, they had to learn the geometricrelations between the platform and asurrounding set of three discrete landmarks,highly visible through the transparent wall ofthe pool. In test trials without a platform,the array of landmarks was so manipulated as todissociate the effect of actual distance to thelandmarks, of their angular separation, and oftheir apparent dimension. Animals were shown torely equally on angular separation and apparentdimension. The role of actual distance couldnot be definitely ascertained, as animals wereshown to additionally rely on the distance tothe pool wall in order to locate theplatform.     

Three dimensional spatial memory and learning in real and virtual environments

Human orientation and spatial cognition partlydepends on our ability to remember sets ofvisual landmarks and imagine their relationshipto us from a different viewpoint. We normallymake large body rotations only about a singleaxis which is aligned with gravity. However,astronauts who try to recognize environmentsrotated in 3 dimensions report that theirterrestrial ability to imagine the relativeorientation of remembered landmarks does noteasily generalize. The ability of humansubjects to learn to mentally rotate a simplearray of six objects around them was studied in1-G laboratory experiments. Subjects weretested in a cubic chamber (n = 73) and aequivalent virtual environment (n = 24),analogous to the interior of a space stationnode module. A picture of an object waspresented at the center of each wall. Subjectshad to memorize the spatial relationships amongthe six objects and learn to predict thedirection to a specific object if their bodywere in a specified 3D orientation. Percentcorrect learning curves and response times weremeasured. Most subjects achieved high accuracyfrom a given viewpoint within 20 trials,regardless of roll orientation, and learned asecond view direction with equal or greaterease. Performance of the subject group thatused a head mounted display/head tracker wasqualitatively similar to that of the secondgroup tested in a physical node simulator. Body position with respect to gravity had asignificant but minor effect on performance ofeach group, suggesting that results may alsoapply to weightless situations. A correlationwas found between task performance measures andconventional paper-and-pencil tests of fieldindependence and 2&3 dimensional figurerotation ability.     

The Global Exploration Roadmap and its significance for NASA

The Global Exploration Roadmap reflects the collaborative effort of twelve space agencies to define a long-term human space exploration strategy which provides substantial benefits for improving the quality of life on Earth and is implementable and sustainable. Such a strategy is a necessary precondition to the government investments required to enable the challenging and rewarding missions that extend human presence into the solar system. The article introduces the international strategy and elaborates on NASA's leadership role in shaping that strategy. The publication of the roadmap, a reflection of the space landscape and multilateral agency-level dialog over the last four years, allows NASA to demonstrate its commitment to leading a long-term space exploration endeavor that delivers benefits, maintains strategic human spaceflight capabilities and expands human presence in space, with human missions to the surface of Mars as a driving goal. The road mapping process has clearly demonstrated the complementary interests of the participants and the potential benefits that can be gained through cooperation among nations to achieve a common goal. The present US human spaceflight policy is examined and it is shown that the establishment of a sustainable global space exploration strategy is fully consistent with that policy.