Will China become a military space superpower?

China's ambitious space program was born in extremely poor national conditions in 1956. By 15 October 2003, with the successful return of the Shenzhou-4 manned space flight, it had developed dramatically. While this flight is a milestone in China's space capabilities, the Shenzhou-4 mission should be considered not as an end, but as the entry ticket to the space power club of the USA and Russia. China may now be a space power, but it is not yet a military space superpower in the way of the latter two countries. This paper investigates whether China will become a military space superpower by reviewing the development of its space program. It examines Chinese military space capabilities in terms of their military space potential, and discusses the political, military and economic implications of this issue. Finally, the paper suggests that China should continue to take the road to openness, focusing on commercial and economic efforts. This will be an alternative direction in which the country can consider exactly what space capabilities it needs in order to continue its economic development.     

A forward looking space policy for the USA

The 1958 Space Act created separate but related military and civilian space exploration and exploitation efforts for the USA. This Viewpoint reexamines the assumptions of the act, and questions how they might be modified to fit with technical and political developments since 1958. Should separate civilian and military programmes continue? How should launch vehicles be developed and operated? What should be the major goals of the space exploration programmes? A well defined and forward looking space policy is proposed, including a lunar base programme, which will take the initiative away from the USSR.     

俄罗斯的空间军事能力:1992年～2001年

在过去的10年间,俄罗斯的各种军用卫星的发射率大幅度降低,甚至出现了没有照相侦察卫星在轨的特殊时期。俄罗斯是否由于财政状况,无法维持其军事空间能力呢?还是另有其他原因呢?文章列举了在1992～2001年间,俄罗斯的军用卫星发射情况,分析了其空间计划的前景。     

Exobiology, SETI, von Neumann and geometric phase control

The central difficulties confronting us at present in exobiology are the problems of the physical forces which sustain three-dimensional organisms, i.e., how one dimensional systems with only nearest interaction and two dimensional ones with its regular vibrations results in an integrated three-dimensional functionality. For example, a human lung has a dimensionality of 2.9 and thus should be measured in m2.9. According to thermodynamics, the first life-like system should have a small number of degrees of freedom, so how can evolution, via cycles of matter, lead to intelligence and theoretical knowledge? Or, more generally, what mechanisms constrain and drive this evolution? We are now on the brink of reaching an understanding below the photon level, into the domain where quantum events implode to the geometric phase which maintains the history of a quantum object. Even if this would exclude point to point communication, it could make it possible to manipulate the molecular level from below, in the physical scale, and result in a new era of geometricised engineering. As such, it would have a significant impact on space exploration and exobiology.     

Large-scale military funding induces culture clash

Mission-oriented research shifts the assessment of research products and potential from scientists to external factors. This is the point of mission funding, but it introduces what the author calls ‘epistemic drift’, which is part of a more general clash between different value systems and cultures. The culture clash between the military and industry has led to a shift in debate from spin-off to dual-use technologies. Similar conflicts and tensions are introduced into the university research system by large-scale mission funding such as that of SDI, and it is imperative that universities establish a strong civilian base for fundamental research funding instead of lobbying for military support.     

武器系统作战效能评定的研究

任何武器系统的发展、选型、研制和改进,都必需经过全面综合的系统分析,选出最优方案。而这其中十分关键的一环就是:如何评定武器系统的作战效能。本文论述了评定武器系统作战效能的基本方法,着重论述了如何运用武器系统的效能模型求解系统效能值。提出了:求系统效能值的关键是在于能力向量的求解,并且给出了求解系统能力向量的具体方法和系统状态的简化,从而为系统的效能评定和效能——费用分析的实际应用为发展、研制武器装备的决策科学化创造了新的较好的条件。论文结合导弹武器系,统展开研究,最后还有实例。     

空间数据系统发展的三个阶段

提出把空间数据系统的发展历程分为三个阶段：第一阶段是面向信道传输,主要解决数据如何在空间链路上有效可靠传输;第二阶段是面向数据源,主要解决如何自适应不同数据源的传输要求。这两个阶段的技术已经成熟并应用。文章预测,空间数据系统将走上第三阶段,即面向数据用户的体制,到那时用户可以根据自己的需求,主动从空间分布式数据库中获取数据。文章重点阐述了第三阶段的新概念设想,它的第一步是云遥测,然后进一步建成支持交互的空间云数据系统。     

美国军事卫星情报系统研究与分析

浅析了美国军事卫星情报系统及其功能，讨论了美国军事卫星情报系统的组成，并对美国军事卫星情报系统体系结构的设计进行了初步探讨，最后指出了系统技术实现的方法。系统的分析对于我国卫星情报的应用具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Technological learning through international collaboration: Lessons from the field

Countries on every continent are making new or renewed commitments to domestic satellite programs. These programs have the potential to address national needs by enhancing access to information, improving infrastructure and providing inspiration to the public. How do countries without local expertise in space technology begin a new satellite program? What is the role of international collaboration in supporting the efforts of a new space fairing country? This paper explores such questions by highlighting outputs from intensive field work in Africa and Asia. Specifically, the study explores case studies of early space activity in these countries to search for lessons about the management of a young space program. The observations from field work are compared to ideas from scholarly literature on technological learning. The findings are organized using principles from systems architecture. The paper presents a model that captures many of the influences and strategic decision areas for a collaborative satellite development project. The paper also highlights the growth of capability among African countries in the area of satellite technology.     

知识系统决策规则的动态更新策略及等价矩阵计算

专家系统是航天领域中人工智能技术应用的重要形式。学习能力是人工智能、机器学习的本质特征之一。用属性及其取值表述对象的知识系统通常需要从大量样本中获取知识并以决策规则的形式加以表达。当样本集合发生变化时,则需对决策规则集进行动态更新。本文分析了增加和移除学习样本两种情况下调整决策规则的方法,提出了知识系统决策规则动态更新的策略和等价矩阵计算方法,通过算例进行了仿真和验证。结果表明:决策规则的动态更新方法和等价矩阵计算可以解决知识系统的动态学习问题,相较决策规则的全局获取运算,减少了计算量。     

测试发射技术及其在军事航天中的应用与发展

论述了国内外航天运载器和航天器测试发射技术的现状 ,给出了我国测试发射技术的发展思路和重点研究方向 ,结合军事航天需求 ,指出了应急机动发射的条件和保障措施、研究方向     

Lifting the veil on CORONA

Information on some of the USA's military space reconnaisance programs has recently been declassified, allowing details of the nature of the technology used and its capabilities to be publicly aired. In this article, a personal account of the situation leading up to the creation of the USA's first military satellite system — named CORONA — is provided, along with discussion of its design, development and program management. CORONA's enormous impact on intelligence gathering is assessed; lessons learned from the program are presented.     

Exploring a structured decision approach as a means of fostering participatory space policy making at NASA

In 1996, the National Research Council's Committee on Risk Characterization argued convincingly for the implementation of more participatory approaches to improve policy making by incorporating a wide range of stakeholder values and concerns in policy decisions. Guidance about how to best carry out such an approach in an agency like NASA is less clear. To address this gap, this paper discusses how the use of a structured approach to involve expert and non-expert stakeholders in policy making can improve the quality of stakeholder involvement and resulting decisions for space policy making at NASA. Supporting this discussion are results from two recent experiments. One compared the quality and type of participants’ input in a conventional stakeholder workshop with that of a more structured participatory process. The results from this experiment showed that a structured decision approach leads to more thoughtful and better-informed decisions. A second experiment showed that structured, participatory decision processes can help to legitimize space policy decisions after they have been implemented, leading to future benefits for the space agency.     

Nonlinear effects in the correlation of tracks and covariance propagation

Even though there are methods for the nonlinear propagation of the covariance the propagation of the covariance in current operational programs is based on the state transition matrix of the 1st variational equations, thus it is a linear propagation. If the measurement errors are zero mean Gaussian, the orbit errors, statistically represented by the covariance, are Gaussian. When the orbit errors become too large they are no longer Gaussian and not represented by the covariance. One use of the covariance is the association of uncorrelated tracks (UCTs). A UCT is an object tracked by a space surveillance system that does not correlate to another object in the space object data base. For an object to be entered into the data base three or more tracks must be correlated. Associating UCTs is a major challenge for a space surveillance system since every object entered into the space object catalog begins as a UCT. It has been proved that if the orbit errors are Gaussian, the error ellipsoid represented by the covariance is the optimum association volume. When the time between tracks becomes large, hours or even days, the orbit errors can become large and are no longer Gaussian, and this has a negative effect on the association of UCTs. This paper further investigates the nonlinear effects on the accuracy of the covariance for use in correlation. The use of the best coordinate system and the unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) for providing a more accurate covariance are investigated along with assessing how these approaches would result in the ability to correlate tracks that are further separated in time.     

The evolution of complex life

In considering the probabilities that intelligent life might exist elsewhere in the Universe, it is important to ask questions about the factors governing the emergence of complex living organisms in the context of evolutionary biology, planetary environments and events in space. Two important problems arise. First, what can be learned about the general laws governing the evolution of complex life anywhere in space by studying its history on the Earth? Second, how is the evolution of complex life affected by events in space? To address these problems, a series of Science Workshops on the Evolution of Complex Life was held at the Ames Research Center. Included in this paper are highlights of those workshops, with particular emphasis on the first question, namely the evolution of complex extraterrestrial life.     

The cost benefits of the Spacelab system to scientific investigations and space applications

In the past, one of the major problems in performing scientific investigations in space has been the high cost of developing, integrating, and transporting scientific experiments into space. The limited resources of unmanned spacecraft, coupled with the requirements for completely automated operations, was another factor contributing to the high costs of scientific research in space. In previous space missions after developing, integrating and transporting costly experiments into space and obtaining successful data, the experiment facility and spacecraft have been lost forever, because they could not be returned to earth. The objective of this paper is to present how the utilization of the Spacelab System will result in cost benefits to the scientific community, and significantly reduce the cost of space operations from previous space programs.The following approach was used to quantify the cost benefits of using the Spacelab System to greatly reduce the operational costs of scientific research in space. An analysis was made of the series of activities required to combine individual scientific experiments into an integrated payload that is compatible with the Space Transportation System (STS). These activities, including Shuttle and Spacelab integration, communications and data processing, launch support requirements, and flight operations were analyzed to indicate how this new space system, when compared with previous space systems, will reduce the cost of space research. It will be shown that utilization of the Spacelab modular design, standard payload interfaces, optional Mission Dependent Equipment (MDE), and standard services, such as the Experiment Computer Operating System (ECOS), allow the user many more services than previous programs, at significantly lower costs. In addition, the missions will also be analyzed to relate their cost benefit contributions to space scientific research.The analytical tools that are being developed at MSFC in the form of computer programs that can rapidly analyze experiment to Spacelab interfaces will be discussed to show how these tools allow the Spacelab integrator to economically establish the payload compatibility of a Spacelab mission.The information used in this paper has been assimilated from the actual experience gained in integrating over 50 highly complex, scientific experiments that will fly on the Spacelab first and second missions. In addition, this paper described the work being done at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to define the analytical integration tools and techniques required to economically and efficiently integrate a wide variety of Spacelab payloads and missions. The conclusions reached in this study are based on the actual experience gained at MSFC in its roles of Spacelab integration and mission managers for the first three Spacelab missions. The results of this paper will clearly show that the cost benefits of the Spacelab system will greatly reduce the costs and increase the opportunities for scientific investigation from space.     

军事航天技术及其发展

研究了军事航天技术的地位作用、技术体系以及军事航天装备的主要构成,并对相关概念进行了权威界定;全面总结了军事航天技术以及军事航天装备的形成与发展历程,最后对其发展趋势进行了深入分析。     

航天器数字化模拟及应用技术

通过国内外航天器数字化模拟技术的现状调研,从仿真框架、建模表达、求解计算、交互与可视化以及大数据等几个方面,综述了航天器数字化模拟所涉及的关键技术,并深入分析了相关技术在系统设计、开发与验证、飞行演练、控制与决策支持、体系仿真与效能评估等领域的应用。在此基础上,面向未来日益复杂的航天任务需求,提出了发展通用化框架、高可信建模、标准化工具和智能化应用的建议,从而加速推进航天器研制数字化、智能化的发展进程。     

基于网络的CAD测试系统客户端与数据库接口技术研究

计算机辅助设计（CAD）是现代工程及产品设计的先进技术,在工业各领域有着广泛的应用和重要的推广价值。本文针对考试系统网络化、标准化、无纸化和智能化的综合性,对测试系统的客户端与数据库接口技术进行了深入研究,并对主观题中精确绘图的判卷进行了探讨。