冕洞特征参数与重现型地磁暴关系的统计研究

在提取冕洞特征参数的基础上,利用1996年到2005年8月近十年来对地磁扰动有影响的356个冕洞事例,定量分析了冕洞特征参数(包括冕洞的面积比、经纬度跨度等)与冕洞高速流特征、重现型地磁扰动特征(包括扰动大小和持续时间等)之间的相关性,研究发现,从引起地磁扰动的冕洞在整个太阳活动周的分布来看,在地磁扰动峰年中冕洞影响同样具有重要的贡献;冕洞高速流太阳风速度与地磁扰动强度之间存在较强的相关性,而高速流中太阳风速度与冕洞面积比关系不大,与冕洞亮度存在一定相关性;冕洞的经度跨度与地磁扰动持续时间存在很强的正相关性.      

冕洞发展及其相关地球空间效应的个例分析

利用出现在2003—2004年的一个大冕洞及其相关太阳风、行星际磁场和地磁资料,分析了冕洞自身演化规律以及对太阳风和重现性地磁暴的影响．研究发现,冕洞发展经历了生长期、成熟期和衰减期三个阶段;成熟期,冕洞高速流中的最大太阳风速度和地磁暴平均强度基本维持在同一个水平上;但地磁暴的持续时间和冕洞高速流的持续时间仍有较大变化,该时间长短主要与冕洞穿越太阳赤道部分所横跨的经度相关．     

冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度及发生时间统计

地磁暴是空间天气预报的重要对象.在太阳活动周下降年和低年,冕洞发出的高速流经过三天左右行星际传输到达地球并引发的地磁暴占主导地位.目前地磁暴的预报通常依赖于1AU处卫星就位监测的太阳风参数,预报提前量只有1h左右.为了增加地磁暴预报提前量,需要从高速流和地磁暴的源头即太阳出发,建立冕洞特征参数与地磁暴的定量关系.分析了2010年5月到2016年12月的152个冕洞-地磁暴事件,利用SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像提取了两类冕洞特征参数,分析了其与地磁暴期间ap,Dst和AE三种地磁指数的统计关系,给出冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度以及发生时间的统计特征,为基于冕洞成像观测提前1～3天预报地磁暴提供了依据.      

地磁Ap指数滞后太阳周循环分析

把1932-2006年地磁Ap指数12个月流动均值分解成为(Ap)R和(Ap)I.其中(Ap)R为太阳黑子数R的线性函数,与太阳黑子数R相位相同,可能对应于日冕物质抛射(CME)等地磁控制因素. (Ap)I分量与太阳黑子数R相位相差约180°,该分量可能对应于极冕洞变化(从太阳峰年开始,由日面极区逐渐向赤道延伸).以地磁Ap指数与太阳黑子数R滞后非常严重的第20太阳周为例,证实了(Ap)I分量与极冕洞向赤道延伸循环变化相对应.因此极冕洞循环变化可能是导致地磁扰动指数与太阳周循环相位不一致,出现滞后现象的一个十分重要原因.      

冕洞中的温度分布与阿尔芬涨落能流

基于两个假设即冕洞中的阿尔芬涨落无阻尼传播和日冕温度范围为9×103K—2.5×106K, 首先导出了快发散流管中阿尔芬涨落无阻尼传播特征;然后利用Munro-Jackson观测结果, 通过数值计算, 确定了可接受的冕洞温度分布;同时确定了冕洞中可能存在的冕底阿尔芬涨落能流为5×105—1×106ergs cm-2sec-1。分析表明, 这样大小的能流对加速冕洞等离子体成为高速风流是有效的和足够的。      

冕洞相关地磁Ap指数中短期预报方法研究

地磁Ap指数是描述全球地磁活动水平的重要指数, 过去许多参考大气模式中都用Ap指数来表述地磁活动状态, 大气模式的运行需要输入地磁Ap指数, 因此, 地磁Ap指数的预报一直是空间环境预报中一个非常重要的内容. 针对太阳活动低年冕洞引起的地磁扰动具有明显27天重现的特性, 利用修正的自回归方法, 对地磁Ap指数进行了提前27天的预报; 采用从SOHO/EIT观测资料发展出来的描述冕洞特性的Pch因子, 进行了提前三天的地磁Ap指数预报. 结果显示, 将统计方法与物理分析相结合, 进行地磁Ap指数的中短期数值预报, 可以得到较好的预报效果.      

冕洞网络的大气模型

本文采用非径向磁流管位形的假设,计算了太阳冕洞网络部分的色球-日冕过渡区的能量平衡模型。所考虑的能量流包括辐射、传导、对流和机械波加热（如阿尔芬波）,计算结果表明在冕洞网络部分的过渡区中,电子温度T和密度N分别比宁静太阳中的值低60%和2倍,而其过渡区的厚度比宁静太阳中的大4倍。这种大气模型可满意地解释T≥105K范围的远紫外观测发射量度的分布。另外我们也发现在冕洞大气的过渡区中,阿尔芬波加热似乎不能忽略,尤其是在冕洞的过渡区底部,它的加热作用可能会超过热传导。在冕洞大气中,由于波动量的淀积而产生的对流能损耗也是重要的,在过渡区底部650km以上,对流能损耗逐渐超过辐射损耗。      

日球基本参数的冕洞周变化与冕洞大气

本文利用MHD波与日冕大气耦合的磁流体动力学方程组,计算得到冕洞内的日冕大气的温度T、密度N和流速V的分布.根据这些量的分布特点,认为日球基本参数T、N和V的冕洞周变化,可以用冕洞磁场的非径向因子a值,随黑子活动的下降而变小来解释.      

中低纬度Pc3-4地磁脉动特性研究——子午工程数据分析初步结果

利用新建成的子午工程地磁台站数据,对比分析了地磁平静期间(2011年3月20-27日)和磁暴期间(2011年9月25日至10月1日)Pc3-4地磁脉动的时空分布特征及其对行星际条件的响应.数据分析结果表明,中低纬度(1.3<L<2.3,L为磁壳参数)的Pc3-4地磁脉动在这两个时期内的分布存在明显的晨昏不对称性,在昼侧前出现明显的Pc3-4地磁脉动并与行星际上游波动密切相关,其振幅增强可能与太阳风动压脉冲相关,高速太阳风更易导致Pc3-4地磁脉动;而对于近赤道低纬(L<1.3)区域,无论是在地磁平静期还是磁暴期均未能观测到Pc3-4地磁脉动,Pc3-4地磁脉动存在明显的纬度效应.      

基于多台站观测的中国区域地磁指数

利用中国14个地磁台站和全球23个地磁台站的H分量分钟值数据,分析单台站小时幅度指数r_H的时空分布特征,在此基础上结合台站之间r_H指数的相似度度量(残差指数Ra),采用K均值聚类算法将中国14个地磁台站划分为7个区域,根据加权法计算各区域的区域指数Rr.结果表明,r_H指数具有27天太阳自转周变化,季节变化不显著,但仍存在春秋季大而冬夏季小的特征;在空间变化上,r_H随纬度的增高而增大,并且在磁暴期间r_H指数的幅值和形态均表现出明显的经度差异,随地方时呈现晨-昏不对称现象;与Dst指数、SYM-H指数、Kp指数及各区域内台站的H分量观测数据对比分析发现,区域指数Rr能有效反映区域地磁扰动.      

The regional peculiarities of the total ozone content variations caused by solar/geomagnetic phenomena

The ozone variations possibly caused by solar electromagnetic radiation, geomagnetic storms and solar particle events depend on the latitude and longitude. The results of the statistical analysis on the base of TOMS total ozone content (TOC) measurements are compared for the regions with the same geographical or geomagnetic latitude but with different stratospheric and/or tropospheric dynamics. The atmospheric circulation could be the intermediate link of a chain of solar/geomagnetic influence on the TOC.     

X级以上耀斑与地磁效应关系研究

统计研究了2010年1月至2012年12月期间所有与耀斑爆发相伴生的日冕物质抛射(CME) 引发的地磁暴事件. 结果表明, 对于CME源区其主要分布在日面 45°E-45°W, 占总数的78.95%, 且西半球比东半球多, 即源区位于西半球的CME易产生地磁效应; X级耀斑与地磁效应的关联性更高, 60.0%的 X级耀斑在其爆发后的2～3天内观测到地磁暴, 而其他级别的耀斑与地磁效应的关联性低得多, 均不足10%; 通过对此期间日面爆发的所有X级耀斑研究分析后发现, 对于源区位于日面东经45°E-45°W 的X级耀斑, 若在其爆发过程中没有大尺度日面扰动, 则无伴生CME且后续产生地磁效应的可能性很低. 由此提出一种通过分析日面观测数据进行地磁暴预报的方法.      

The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.     

Ionospheric storm due to solar Coronal mass ejection in September 2017 over the Brazilian and African longitudes

Coronal mass ejection (CME) occurs when there is an abrupt release of a large amount of solar plasma, and this cloud of plasma released by the Sun has an intrinsic magnetic field. In addition, CMEs often follow solar flares (SF). The CME cloud travels outward from the Sun to the interplanetary medium and eventually hits the Earth’s system. One of the most significant aspects of space weather is the ionospheric response due to SF or CME. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind speed, and the number of particles are relevant parameters of the CME when it hits the Earth’s system. A geomagnetic storm is most geo-efficient when the plasma cloud has an interplanetary magnetic field southward and it is accompanied by an increase in the solar wind speed and particle number density. We investigated the ionospheric response (F-region) in the Brazilian and African sectors during a geomagnetic storm event on September 07–10, 2017, using magnetometer and GPS-TEC networks data. Positive ionospheric disturbances are observed in the VTEC during the disturbed period (September 07–08, 2017) over the Brazilian and African sectors. Also, two latitudinal chains of GPS-TEC stations from the equatorial region to low latitudes in the East and West Brazilian sectors and another chain in the East African sector are used to investigate the storm time behavior of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). We noted that the EIA was disturbed in the American and African sectors during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Also, the Brazilian sector was more disturbed than the African sector.     

行星际日冕物质抛射地磁效应研究的支持向量机方法初步研究

行星际日冕物质抛射（Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection,ICME）与地球磁层相互作用并带来地磁暴等地磁扰动.从Richardson和Cane提供的近地球ICME列表中筛选出ICME事件集,基于ICME扰动期间的行星际等离子体与磁场数据提取出特征.通过计算各特征的费舍尔分值（Fisher Score）,对这些特征进行选择,发现行星际磁场南北向分量持续时间小于-10nT且激波等扰动所带来的ICME扰动开始时,太阳风速度的增量等特征与ICME事件的地磁效应密切相关.这与现有的传统统计研究结果一致.以这些特征为基础,训练得到的径向基函数支持向量机能够以0.78±0.08的准确率判断ICME事件是否会产生中等及以上强度的地磁暴（Dst ≤-50nT）.      

F2 layer response to geomagnetic disturbances in Eastern Asia under the low solar activity

In this paper, the peculiarities of ionospheric response to geomagnetic disturbances observed at the decay and minimum of solar activity (SA) in the period 2004–2007 are investigated with respect to different geomagnetic conditions. Data from ionospheric stations and results of total electron content (TEC) measurements made at the network of GPS ground-based receivers located within the latitude–longitude sector (20–70°N, 90–160°Е) are used in this study. Three groups of anomalous ionospheric response to geomagnetic disturbances have been observed during low solar activity. At daytime, the large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) could generally be related to the main phase of magnetic storm. Quasi-two-days wavelike disturbances (WLDs) have been also observed in the main phase independent of the geomagnetic storm intensity. Sharp electron density oscillations of short duration (OSD) occurred in the response to the onset of both main and recovery phases of the magnetic storm in the daytime at middle latitudes. A numerical model for ionosphere–plasmasphere coupling was used to interpret the occurrence of LS TIDs. Results showed that the LSTIDs might be associated with the unexpected lifting of F2 layer to the region with the lower recombination rate by reinforced meridional winds that produces the increase of the electron density in the F2 layer maximum.     

Effects of CME and CIR induced geomagnetic storms on low-latitude ionization over Indian longitudes in terms of neutral dynamics

This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12–20, 2016 and May 26–31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the storms. Prominent peaks in diurnal maximum in excess of 20–45 TECU over the quiet time values were observed during the October 2016 storm at Lucknow, Indore, Hyderabad, Bangalore and 10–20 TECU for the May 2017 storm at Siliguri, Indore, Calcutta and Hyderabad. The GUVI images onboard TIMED spacecraft that measures the thermospheric O/N₂ ratio, showed high values (O/N₂ ratio of about 0.7) on October 16 when positive storm effects were observed compared to the other days during the storm period. The observed features have been explained in terms of the O/N₂ ratio increase in the equatorial thermosphere, CIR-induced High Speed Solar Wind (HSSW) event for the October 2016 storm. The TEC enhancement has also been explained in terms of the Auroral Electrojet (AE), neutral wind values obtained from the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM14) and equatorial electrojet strength from magnetometer data for both October 2016 and May 2017 storms. These results are one of the first to be reported from the Indian longitude sector on influence of CME- and CIR-driven geomagnetic storms on TEC during the declining phase of solar cycle 24.