Results from the study of an M7.6 flare and its associated CME

An M7.6 flare was well observed on October 24, 2003 in active region 10486 by a few instruments and satellites, including GOES, TRACE, SOHO, RHESSI and NoRH. Multi-wavelength study shows that this flare underwent two episodes. During the first episode, only a looptop source of <40 keV was observed in reconstructed RHESSI images, which showed shrinkage with a velocity of 12–14 km s⁻¹ in a period of about 12 min. During the second process, in addition to the looptop source, two footpoint sources were observed in energy channel of as high as ∼200 keV. One of them showed fast propagation along one of the two TRACE 1600 Å flare ribbons and the 195 Å loop footpoints, which could be explained by successive magnetic reconnection. The associated CME showed a mass pickup process with decreasing center-of-mass velocity. The decrease of the CME kinetic energy and the increase of its potential energy lead to an almost constant total energy during the CME propagation. Our results reveal that the flare and its associated CME have comparable energy content, and the flare is of non-thermal property.     

Detailed analysis of dynamic evolution of three Active Regions at the photospheric level before flare and CME occurrence

We present a combined analysis of the applications of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (denoted as ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ in Korsós et al. (2015)) method and the magnetic helicity tool (Berger and Field, 1984) employed for three active regions (ARs), namely NOAA AR 11261, AR 11283 and AR 11429. We analysed the time series of photospheric data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory taken between August 2011 and March 2012. During this period the three ARs produced a series of flares (eight M- and six X-class) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). AR 11261 had four M-class flares and one of them was accompanied by a fast CME. AR 11283 had similar activities with two M- and two X-class flares, but only with a slow CME. Finally, AR 11429 was the most powerful of the three ARs as it hosted five compact and large solar flare and CME eruptions. For applying the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method we employed the Debrecen sunspot data catalogue, and, for estimating the magnetic helicity at photospheric level we used the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP’s) vector magnetograms from SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager). We followed the evolution of the components of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ and the magnetic helicity before the flare and CME occurrences. We found a unique and mutually shared behaviour, called the U-shaped pattern, of the weighted distance component of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ and of the shearing component of the helicity flux before the flare and CME eruptions. This common pattern is associated with the decreasing-receding phases yet reported only known to be a necessary feature prior to solar flare eruption(s) but found now at the same time in the evolution of the shearing helicity flux. This result leads to the conclusions that (i) the shearing motion of photospheric magnetic field may be a key driver for solar eruption in addition to the flux emerging process, and that (ii) the found decreasing-approaching pattern in the evolution of shearing helicity flux may be another precursor indicator for improving the forecasting of solar eruptions.     

差分GPS定向校准方法的研究

提出了一种差分GPS定向校准方法,即利用差分GPS测得固定站和运动站的坐标(WGS-84),应用计算模型求出运动站相对固定站的大地方位角,再与由一等天文点计算给出的大地方位角进行比对。给出了计算模型,试验设备,试验方法和试验数据,验证了思路的正确性和可行性。     

An application of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient to solar compact and eruptive events

We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (${\mathit{WG}}_M$), introduced in Korsós et al., 2015, for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue. To demonstrate the power of investigative capabilities of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method, in terms of flare and CME eruptions, we studied two typical ARs, namely, AR 12158 and AR 12192. The choice of ARs represent canonical cases. AR 12158 produced an X1.6 flare with fast “halo” CME ($v_{\mathit{linear}}$ = 1267 $\text{km}{\text{s}}^{-1}$) while in AR 12192 there occurred a range of powerful X-class eruptions, i.e. X1.1, X1.6, X3.1, X1.0, X2.0 and X2.0-class energetic flares, interestingly, none with an accompanying CME. The value itself and temporal variation of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ is found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the intensity of the expected flare class. Furthermore, we have also estimated the flare onset time from the relationship of duration of converging and diverging motions of the area-weighted barycenters of two subgroups of opposite magnetic polarities. This test turns out not only to provide information about the intensity of the expected flare-class and the flare onset time but may also indicate whether a flare will occur with/without fast CME. We have also found that, in the case when the negative polarity barycenter has moved around and the positive one “remained” at the same coordinates preceding eruption, the flare occurred with fast “halo” CME. Otherwise, when both the negative and the positive polarity barycenters have moved around, the AR produced flares without CME. If these properties found for the movement of the barycenters are generic pre-cursors of CME eruption (or lack of it), identifying them may serve as an excellent pre-condition for refining the forecast of the lift-off of CMEs.     

The magnetospheres of Jupiter and Saturn and their lessons for the Earth

The study of planetary magnetospheres allows us to understand processes occurring in the Earth’s magnetosphere by showing us how these processes respond under different conditions. We illustrate lessons learned about the control of the size of the magnetosphere by the dynamic pressure of the solar wind; how cold plasma is lost from magnetospheres; how free energy is generated to produce ion cyclotron waves; the role of fast neutrals in a planetary magnetosphere; the interchange instability; and reconnection in a magnetodisk. Not all information flow is from Jupiter and Saturn to Earth; some flows the other way.     

MHD simulation of magnetic field configuration above the active region NOAA 10365

The current sheet (CS) creation before a flare in the vicinity of a singular line above the active region NOAA 10365 is shown in numerical experiments. Such a way the possibility of energy accumulation for a solar flare is demonstrated. These data and results of observation confirm the electrodynamical solar flare model that explains solar flares and CME appearance during CS disruption. The model explains also all phenomena observed in flares. For correct reproduction of the real boundary conditions the magnetic flux between spots should be taken into account. The full system of 3D MHD equations are solved using the PERESVET code. For setting the boundary conditions the method of photospheric magnetic maps is used. Such a method permits to take into account all evolution of photospherical magnetic field during several days before the flare.     

Kuafu and the studies of CME initiation

We first briefly review the current trend in the studies of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), then summarize some recent efforts in understanding the CME initiation. Emphasis has been put on the studies of Earth-directed CMEs whose associated surface activity and large scale magnetic source have been well identified. The data analysis by combining the MDI full disc magnetograms, vector magnetograms of active regions, EUV waves and dimmings, non-thermal radio sources, and the SOHO LASCO observations has shed new light in understanding the CME magnetism. However, the current studies seem to invoke new observations in a few aspects: (1) The observations which enable us to trace CMEs from the earliest associated surface activity to its initial acceleration and key development in the low corona in the height of 1–3 R; (2) The imaging spectroscopic observations which can be used to diagnose the early plasma outflow and the line-of-sight velocity in understanding the kinematics of CMEs; (3) The accurate timing from primary magnetic energy release, manifested by chromospheric activity, non-thermal radio bursts, and EUV, X-ray and γ-ray emissions, to the CME initiation, early acceleration and propagation, and the consequences in the interplanetary space and magnetosphere. The Kuafu Mission will meet the basic requirement for the new observations in CME initiation studies and serve as a monitor of space weather of the Sun–Earth system.     

A method for operative calculation of charged particle penetration into the LEO

We develop a simple method for calculating the effective vertical cutoff rigidity of charged particles, taking into account the Kp-index and the local time, on the basis of generalization of the results of extensive trajectory calculations for trial particles moving in the geomagnetic field. The vertical cutoff rigidities, calculated by the Tsyganenko-89 model, are presented as an International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model calculated and thereafter corrected in accordance with the geomagnetic disturbance and local time conditions. The fits from the proposed method agree with the results of cutoff rigidity measurements carried out by satellites. The method is intended for applications using cutoff calculations, such as evaluating particle penetration of spatial boundaries, calculating magnetospheric transmissions for low-orbital spacecrafts flights and interpreting the results of orbital experiments.     

Interpretation of the SOHO/UVCS observations of two CME-driven shocks

We report on the analysis of two fast CME-driven shocks observed with the UltraViolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The first event, detected on 2002 March 22 at 4.1 R_⊙ with the UVCS slit placed in correspondence with the flank of the expanding CME surface, represents the highest UV detection of a shock obtained so far with the UVCS instrument in the corona. The second one, detected on 2002 July 23 at 1.6 R_⊙ with the UVCS slit placed in correspondence with the front of the expanding CME surface, shows an anomalous deficiency of ion heating with respect to what observed in previous CME/shocks observed by UVCS, possibly reflecting the effect of different coronal plasma conditions over the solar cycle. From the two different sets of observations we derived an estimate for the shock compression ratio X, which turns out to be X = 2.4 ± 0.2 and X = 2.2 ± 0.1, respectively, for the first and second event. Comparison between the two events provides complementary perspectives on the dynamical evolution of CME-driven shocks.     

考虑地球自转的探月返回反馈线性化跟踪制导律设计

研究考虑地球自转的探月返回跳跃式再入的纵向制导问题.通过对制导动力学进行详细分析,给出了地球自转对制导精度产生影响的原因.在此基础上,针对探月返回跳跃式再入的纵向制导问题,研究了考虑地球自转的反馈线性化跟踪制导律的设计问题.当考虑地球自转时,制导动力学十分复杂,如果直接按照非线性系统反馈线性化控制理论进行制导律设计,所需测量量较多,制导律难以实现.设计了一种简化的反馈线性化跟踪制导律,并分析了设计机理.最后进行了数学仿真,与航天飞机反馈线性化跟踪制导律进行了比较,所设计的制导律在一定不确定下制导精度更高.     

On the practical exploitation of perturbative effects in low Earth orbit for space debris mitigation

This paper presents the results of a numerical evaluation of the natural lifetime reduction in low Earth orbit, due to dynamical perturbations. The study considers two values for the area-to-mass ratio, a nominal ratio which resembles a typical value of spacecraft in orbit today, and an enhanced ratio which covers the surface augmentation. The results were obtained with two orbit propagators, one of a semi-analytical nature and the second one using non-averaged equations of motion. The simulations for both propagators were set up similarly to allow comparison. They both use the solar radiation pressure and the secular terms of the geopotential ($J_2,J_4$ and $J_6$). The atmospheric drag was turned on and off in both propagators to alternatively study the eccentricity build up and the residual lifetime. The non-averaging case also covers a validation with the full 6?×?6 geopotential. The results confirm the findings in previous publications, that is, the possibility for de-orbiting from altitudes above the residual atmosphere if a solar sail is deployed at the end-of-life, due to the combined effect of solar radiation pressure and the oblateness of the Earth. At near polar inclinations, shadowing effects can be exploited to the same end. The results obtained with the full, non-averaging propagator revealed additional de-orbiting corridors associated with solar radiation pressure which were not found by previous work on space debris mitigation. The results of both tools are compared for specific initial conditions. For nominal values of area-to-mass ratio, instead, it is confirmed that this resonance effect is negligible.The paper then puts the findings in the perspective of the current satellite catalogue. It identifies space missions which are currently close to a resonance corridor and shows the orbit evolution within the resonances with a significantly shorter residual orbital lifetime. The paper finishes with a discussion on the exploitation of these effects with regards to the long-term simulation of the space debris environment and a flux and collision probability comparison.     

Coronal radio-sounding detection of a CME during the 1997 Galileo solar conjunction

Frequency fluctuations of the Galileo S-band radio signal were recorded nearly continuously during the spacecraft’s solar conjunction from December 1996 to February 1997. A strong propagating disturbance, most probably associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), was detected on 7 February when the radio ray path proximate point was on the west solar limb at about 54 solar radii from the Sun. The CME passage through the line of sight is characterized by a significant increase in the fluctuation intensity of the recorded frequency and by an increase in the plasma speed from about 234 km s⁻¹ up to about 755 km s⁻¹. These velocity estimates are obtained from a correlation analysis of frequency fluctuations recorded simultaneously at two widely-separated ground stations. The density turbulence power spectrum is found to steepen behind the CME front. The Galileo radio-sounding data are compared with SOHO/LASCO observations of the CME in the corona and with WIND spacecraft data near the Earth’s orbit.     

Comparison of the transport codes HZETRN,HETC and FLUKA for a solar particle event

The protection of astronauts and instrumentation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events is one of the primary constraints associated with mission planning in low earth orbit or deep space. To help satisfy this constraint, several computational tools have been developed to analyze the effectiveness of various shielding materials and structures exposed to space radiation. These tools are now being carefully scrutinized through a systematic effort of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. In this benchmark study, the deterministic transport code HZETRN is compared to the Monte Carlo transport codes HETC-HEDS and FLUKA for a 30 g/cm² water target protected by a 20 g/cm² aluminum shield exposed to a parameterization of the February 1956 solar particle event. Neutron and proton fluences as well as dose and dose equivalent are compared at various depths in the water target. The regions of agreement and disagreement between the three codes are quantified and discussed, and recommendations for future work are given.     

Estimation of the solar proton spectrum in the GLE70 event

The GLE event on December 13, 2006 as observed by network station neutron monitor data is investigated (is considered). The GLE energetic spectrum suggested for this event is estimated taking into account the primary differential spectrum of galactic cosmic rays, coupling coefficients and integral multiplicities of concrete detectors at different latitudes and levels of observation. It is noted that the additional increase of solar protons is also manifested in the ionization chamber ASK-1 data at the Yakutsk station.     

A priori zenith wet delays in the analysis of VLBI CONT sessions

Tropospheric delay is one of the major sources of error in VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) analysis. The principal component of this error can be accurately computed through reliable surface pressure data —hydrostatic delay— yet there is also a small but volatile component —wet delay— which is difficult to be modelled a priori. In VLBI analysis, troposphere delay is typically modelled in the theoretical delays using Zenith Hydrostatic Delays (ZHD) and a dry mapping function. Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) is not modelled but estimated in the analysis process. This work studies inter alia the impact of including external GNSS estimates to model a priori ZWD in VLBI analysis, as well as other models of a priori ZWD.In a first stage, two different sources of GNSS troposphere products are compared to VLBI troposphere estimates in a period of 5 years. The solution with the best agreement to VLBI results is injected in the VLBI analysis as a priori ZWD value and is compared to other options to model a priori ZWD. The dataset used for this empirical analysis consists of the six CONT campaigns.It has been found that modelling a priori ZWD has no significant impact either on baseline length and coordinates repeatabilities. Nevertheless, modelling a priori ZWD can change the magnitude of the estimated coordinates a few millimeters in the up component with respect to the non-modelling approach. In addition, the influence of a priori ZWD on Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) and troposphere estimates —Zenith Total Delays (ZTD) and gradients—has also been analysed, resulting in a small but significant impact on both geodetic products.     

Evidence for a shock wave in visible light and radio observations of the 1980 June 29 event

Shock waves, as evidenced by type II radio bursts, often accompany flares and coronal mass ejection transients. At present, the density enhancements observed by coronagraphs are believed by some to be ejected matter from the low corona, and by others to be the compressed material behind a shock front. If the former is correct, one would expect in some cases to see a density enhancement, associated with the compression region of the shock, some distance ahead of the transient ejecta. Such a density enhancement has not been previously reported.The coronal transient of 1980 June 29 (0233 UT) was observed with the High Altitude Observatory's Coronagraph/Polarimeter aboard SMM. This flare-associated coronal transient event was well observed with the Culgoora Radioheliograph, including a well-developed type II burst. Visible on the coronagraph images is a faint circular arc moving out well ahead of the transient loops. This arc is moving at more than 900 km s^?1 while the transient itself is moving at a speed of about 600 km s^?1. Both the arc and transient appear to have originated either prior to the X-ray flare or at some height above the flare at the time of the flare. The type II burst observed at Culgoora is associated with the transient loops, and no type II emission is identified with the faint arc.Due to its great speed, we interpret the faint arc as a manifestation of a shock wave, but also envision a separate shock wave associated with the transient loops as evidenced by the type II emission. Preliminary density measurements are consistent with this interpretation, and show the outer shock wave associated with the faint arc to have a Mach number M_A ≤ 1.7. At present we have no convincing explanation for the lack of a type II burst in association with the arc.This work was supported in part by NASA through grants NSG-7287 and NAGW-91 to the University of Colorado, Boulder, and S-55989 to the High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research. The National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Solar and interplanetary origins of the November 2004 superstorms

During the first half of November 2004, many solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were associated with solar active region (AR) 10696. This paper attempts to identify the solar and interplanetary origins of two superstorms which occurred on 8 and 10 November with peak intensities of Dst = −373 nT and −289 nT, respectively. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields within a magnetic cloud (MC), and a sheath + MC were the causes of these two superstorms, respectively. Two different CME propagation models [Gopalswamy, N., Yashiro, S., Kaiser, M.L. et al. Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 29207–29219, 2001; Gopalswamy, N.S., Lara, A., Manoharan, P.K. et al. An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks. Adv. Space Res. 36, 2289–2294, 2005] were employed to attempt to identify the solar sources. It is found that the models identify several potential CMEs as possible sources for each of the superstorms. The two Gopalswamy et al. models give the possible sources for the first superstorm as CMEs on 2330 UT 4 November 2004 or on 1454 UT 5 November 2004. For the second superstorm, the possible solar source was a CME that on 0754 UT 5 November 2004 or one that occurred on 1206 UT 5 November 2004. We note that other propagation models sometimes agree and other times disagree with the above results. It is concluded that during high solar/interplanetary activity intervals such as this one, the exact solar source is difficult to identify. More refined propagation models are needed.     

Highly Elliptical Orbits for Arctic observations: Assessment of ionizing radiation

The ionizing radiation environment was analyzed for a variety of potential Highly Elliptical Orbits (HEOs) with orbital periods ranging from 6 h to 24 h suitable to continuously monitor the Arctic region. Several models available from the ESA Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) online tool were employed, including the new-generation AE9/AP9 model for trapped radiation. Results showed that the Total Ionizing Dose (TID) has a well-pronounced local minimum for the 14-h orbit, which is nearly identical to the overall minimum observed for the longest orbital period (24 h). The thickness of slab aluminum shielding required to keep the annual TID below 10, 5 and 3.33 krad (i.e. 150, 75 and 50 krad for 15 years of mission duration) for a 14-h orbit is 2.1, 2.7 and 3.1 mm respectively. The 16-h orbit requires an additional 0.5 mm of aluminum to achieve the same results, while the 24-h orbit requires less shielding in the order of 0.2–0.3 mm. Comparison between the AE8/AP8 and AE9/AP9 models was conducted for all selected orbits. Results demonstrated that differences ranged from −70% to +170% depending on orbit geometry.     

Estimation of the Love and Shida numbers: h2, l2 using SLR data for the low satellites

In this paper we present results for the global elastic parameters: Love number h₂ and Shida number l₂ derived from the analysis of Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data. SLR data for the two low satellites STELLA (H = 800 km) and STARLETTE (H = 810 km) observed during 2.5 years from January 3, 2005 until July 1, 2007 with 18 globally distributed ground stations were analyzed. The analysis was done separately for the two satellites. We do a sequential analysis and study the stability and convergence of the estimates as a function of length of the data set used.     

Flight safety implications of the extreme solar proton event of 23 February 1956

There is considerable speculation about the effects at aircraft altitudes resulting from extreme solar proton events. The ground level event (GLE) of 23 February 1956 (GLE 5), remains the largest solar proton event of the neutron monitor era in terms of its influence on count rates at monitors near sea level. During this GLE the count rate was increased by as much as 4760% (15-min average) at the Leeds monitor relative to the count rate from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Two modern models of the event cumulative solar proton spectrum for this event, a 6-parameter fit in energy and a 4-parameter Band fit in rigidity, are compared with 1-h of GCR at solar minimum. While effective doses calculated with CARI-7A for both models at low geomagnetic cutoff rigidities are indeed high when compared with GCR and can exceed recommended exposure limits, both GLE spectra exhibit a much stronger dependence on cutoff rigidity than GCR, and a larger fraction of the dose from neutrons. At locations with cutoff rigidities above 4.2 and 6.4?GV, respectively, the GLE effective doses are smaller than the GCR hourly dose. At locations with cutoff rigidities above about 4?GV, GCR was the dominant source of exposure in 10?h or less at all altitudes examined. This suggests that if a similar event occurs in the future, low- and mid-latitude flights at modern jet flight altitudes could be well-protected by Earth’s magnetic field.