Mini-belt as a fine spatial structure of the outer radiation belt in quiet and disturbed conditions

Electron flux data from LANL geostationary spacecrafts were statistically treated and ordered in a special magnetic coordinate system (effective L-coordinate and MLT). The data treating procedure allowed to obtain the dynamics of quasi-trapped electrons of different energies on effective L-shells ranging from 6.6 to 7.0. It was found that in quiet conditions a stable fine spatial structure of quasi-trapped electrons exists with maximum of fluxes near L = 6.78 and MLT=12. This structure may be looked at as an asymmetrical “mini-belt”. The position of the maximum depends on electron energy and changes with magnetic activity. The dynamics of this mini-belt for both quiet and disturbed periods is illustrated and discussed. During isolated magnetic storms the mini-belt maximum shifts in a regular manner outward and inward; a diffusion wave of quasi-trapped particles propagates from outside of the geostationary orbit and serves as a source of new particles for the mini-belt. The azimuthal geometry of this diffusion wave extracted from experimental data is illustrated. The possible role of the “mini-belt” is discussed in relation with well-known “anomalous” dynamics of the inner radiation belt.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Modeling of “gradual” solar energeticparticle events using a stochastic differential equation method

We have modeled “gradual” solar energetic particle events through numerical simulations using a StochasticDifferential Equation (SDE) method. We consider that energetic particle events are roughly divided into two groups: (1) where the shock was driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with large solar flares, and (2) where they have no related solar events apart from the CMEs. (The detailed classification of energetic particle events was discussed in our previous paper.) What we call “gradual” solar energetic particle events belong to the former group. Particles with energies greater than 10 MeV are observed within several hours after the occurrence of flares and CMEs in many gradual events. By applying the SDE method coupled with particle splitting to diffusive acceleration, we found that an injection of high energy particles is necessary for early enhancement of such a high-energy proton flux and that it should not be presumed that the solar wind particles act as the seed population.     

Solar wind dependence of the Pc1 wave activity

There are a host of factors influencing the excitation of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations, which are ULF waves in the frequency range between 0.2 and 5 Hz. We have studied carefully the dependence of the pearl-type Pc1 activity at Sodankylä, Finland (L = 5.1) on the plasma density N in front of the magnetosphere, the bulk velocity V of the solar wind, and the intensity B of the IMF. The result is as follows: high values of N and reduced values of V are favorable to appearance of Pc1, whereas the dependence of Pc1 activity on B is practically absent. We also show that the probability of Pc1 occurrence decreases with the interplanetary electric field, and increases with solar wind impact pressure and with the plasma to magnetic pressure ratio “beta”.     

Sharp boundaries of solar wind plasma structures and their relationship to solar wind turbulence

Sharp (<10 min) and large (>20%) solar wind ion flux changes are common phenomena in turbulent solar wind plasma. These changes are the boundaries of small- and middle-scale solar wind plasma structures which can have a significant influence on Earth’s magnetosphere. These solar wind ion flux changes are typically accompanied by only a small change in the bulk solar wind velocity, hence, the flux changes are driven mainly by plasma density variations. We show that these events occur more frequently in high-density solar wind. A characteristic of solar wind turbulence, intermittency, is determined for time periods with and without these flux changes. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of solar wind ion flux variations for different time scales are calculated for each of these periods and compared. For large time scales, the PDFs are Gaussian for both data sets. For small time scales, the PDFs from both data set are more flat than Gaussian, but the degree of flatness is much larger for the data near the sharp flux change boundaries.     

Correlations between neutral and ionized solar wind

We report results of a statistical study correlating ionized solar wind (ISW) fluxes observed by ACE during late 2000 and throughout 2001 with neutral solar wind (NSW) fluxes observed by IMAGE/LENA over the same period. The average correlation coefficient between the neutral and ionized solar wind is 0.66 with correlations greater than 0.80 occurring about 29% of the time. Correlations appear to be driven by high solar wind flux variability, similar to results obtained by in situ multi-spacecraft correlation studies. In this study, however, IMAGE remains inside the magnetosphere on over 95% of its orbits. As a function of day of year, or equivalently ecliptic longitude, the slope of the relationship between the neutral solar wind flux and the ionized solar wind flux shows an enhancement near the upstream direction, but the symmetry point appears shifted toward higher ecliptic longitudes than the interstellar neutral (ISN) flow direction by about 20°. The estimated peak interstellar neutral upstream density inside of 1 AU is about 7 × 10⁻³ cm⁻³.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

Storm-time formation of a relativistic electron belt and some relevant phenomena in other magnetospheric plasma domains

An empirical formula relating the strength of a storm given by its |Dst|_max with the L-coordinate of the peak of storm-injected relativistic electrons is one of a few well-confirmed quantitative relations found in the magneto-spheric physics. We successively extended a dataset of the formula’s basic storms with several events of high Dst-amplitude up to the highest observed |Dst|_max = 600 nT. Possible applying of the formula to the predicting of the ring-current plasma-pressure distribution and the lowest westward electrojet position for a storm are discussed. We have also analyzed the 2000–2001 years’ data on relativistic electrons from our instruments installed on EXPRESS-A (geosynchronous orbit; E_e = 0.8–6 MeV), Molniya-3 (h = 500 × 40 000 km, i = 63°; E_e = 0.8–5.5 MeV) and GLONASS (h = 20 000 km, i = 64°; E_e  l MeV) along with other correlated measurements: GOES series (E_e > 2 MeV), geomagnetic indices (Dst, AE, AL) and interplanetary parameters (solar wind, IMF). The goal is to investigate which outer conditions are most responsible for the high/low output of the storm-injected relativistic electrons. For the geosynchronous orbit, two factors are found as the necessary condition of the highest electron output: high and long-lasting substorm activity on a storm recovery phase and high velocity of solar wind. On the contrary, extremely low substorm activity surely observed during whole the storm recovery phase constitutes a sufficient condition of the non-increased after-storm electron intensity. For the first time found cases of the increased after-storm electron intensity observed at the inner L-shells with no simultaneously seen increase in the geosynchronous distances are presented.     

Interplanetary shocks and sudden impulses during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

In this work a study is performed on the correlation between fast forward interplanetary shock parameters at 1 Astronomical Unit and sudden impulse (SI) amplitudes in the H-component of the geomagnetic field, for periods of solar activity maximum (year 2000) and minimum (year 1995–1996). Solar wind temperature, density and speed, and total magnetic field, were taken to calculate the static pressures (thermal and magnetic) both in the upstream and downstream sides of the shocks. The variations of the solar wind parameters and pressures were then correlated with SI amplitudes. The solar wind speed variations presented good correlations with sudden impulses, with correlation coefficients larger than 0.70 both in solar maximum and solar minimum, whereas the solar wind density presented very low correlation. The parameter better correlated with SI was the square root dynamic pressure variation, showing a larger correlation during solar maximum (r = 0.82) than during solar minimum (r = 0.77). The correlations of SI with square root thermal and magnetic pressure were smaller than with the dynamic pressure, but they also present a good correlation, with r > 0.70 during both solar maximum and minimum. Multiple linear correlation analysis of SI in terms of the three pressure terms have shown that 78% and 85% of the variance in SI during solar maximum and minimum, respectively, are explained by the three pressure variations. Average sudden impulse amplitude was 25 nT during solar maximum and 21 nT during solar minimum, while average square root dynamic pressure variation is 1.20 and 0.86 nPa^1/2 during solar maximum and minimum, respectively. Thus on average, fast forward interplanetary shocks are 33% stronger during solar maximum than during solar minimum, and the magnetospheric SI response has amplitude 20% higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum. A comparison with theoretical predictions (Tsyganenko’s model corrected by Earth’s induced currents) of the coefficient of sudden impulse change with solar wind dynamic pressure variation showed excellent agreement, with values around 17 nT/nPa^1/2.     

Prompt effects of solar wind variations on the inner magnetosphere and midlatitude ionosphere

It is well known that the solar wind can significantly affect high-latitude ionospheric dynamics. However, the effects of the solar wind on the middle- and low-latitude ionosphere are much less studied. In this paper, we report observations that large perturbations in the middle- and low-latitude ionosphere are well correlated with solar wind variations. In one event, a significant (20–30%) decrease of the midlatitude ionospheric electron density over a large latitudinal range was related to a sudden drop in the solar wind pressure and a northward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field, and the density decrease became larger at lower latitudes. In another event, periodic perturbations in the dayside equatorial ionospheric E × B drift and electrojet were closely associated with variations in the interplanetary electric field. Since the solar wind is always changing with time, it can be a very important and common source of ionospheric perturbations at middle- and low-latitudes. The relationship between solar wind variations and significant ionospheric perturbations has important applications in space weather.     

基于支持向量机方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型研究

提出了一种基于支持向量机方法(SVM)的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型. 模型以平均影响值(MIV)作为指标, 筛选出预报输入参量. 这些参量包括, 前一日的大于2MeV电子日积分通量、太阳风速度、太阳风密度、Dst指数和前二日的AE指数. 模型包含回归和分类两个部分, 可以分别对未来一天的电子日积分通量和相对论电子事件强度的级别做出预报. 对2008年样本进行测试, 在相对论电子通量的预报中, 预报值和实测值之间的线性相关系数为0.85, 预报效率为0.71; 对相对论电子事件级别预报的准确率为82%, 可以较准确区分开事件状态与非事件状态. 结果表明, SVM预报模型对相对论电子事件有较好的预报效果.      

Solar wind governing the response of Venusian atmosphere and ionosphere

The ionosphere of Venus is primarily formed by photoionization of a gaseous blanket around Venus. The impact ionization by energetic solar charged particles also plays an important role in the variability of Venusian ionospheric ion, electron density and their temperature profiles. The microscopic variations in the solar wind velocity, particle flux and orientations of frozen-in interplanetary magnetic field determine the solar wind interaction with the Venusian ionosphere. The ion and electron density profiles obtained by Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Pioneer Venus Entry Probes have been analysed in the light of simultaneous solar wind velocity and particle flux. Marked changes in height profiles of ion, electron densities and their temperatures have been found to correlate with the simultaneous changes in the solar wind velocity and particle flux. It is shown that the solar wind plays a more important role in controlling the physical properties and behavior of daytime as well as nighttime ionosphere of Venus, whereas the solar xuv sustains the primary ionization process.     

X-ray, γ-emission and energetic particles in near-Earth space as measured by CORONAS-F satellite: From maximum to minimum of the last solar cycle

The Russian solar observatory CORONAS-F was launched into a circular orbit on July 31, 2001 and operated until December 12, 2005. Two main aims of this experiment were: (1) simultaneous study of solar hard X-ray and γ-ray emission and charged solar energetic particles, (2) detailed investigation of how solar energetic particles influence the near-Earth space environment. The CORONAS-F satellite orbit allows one to measure both solar energetic particle dynamics and variations of the solar particle boundary penetration as well as relativistic electrons of the Earth’s outer radiation belt during and after magnetic storms. We have found that significant enhancements of relativistic electron flux in the outer radiation belt were observed not only during strong magnetic storms near solar maximum but also after weak storms caused by high speed solar wind streams. Relativistic electrons of the Earth’s outer radiation belt cause volumetric ionization in the microcircuits of spacecraft causing them to malfunction, and solar energetic particles form an important source of radiation damage in near-Earth space. Therefore, the present results and future research in relativistic electron flux dynamics are very important.     

地球同步轨道高能电子增强事件预报方法

分析了地球同步轨道高能电子通量增强事件的发生规律及其与太阳风和行星际磁场参数的关系，并在此基础上建立了基于人工神经网络的高能电子增强事件模式，经实测数据检验，预报模式可以对未来1天的高能电子通量进行预报，误差为8．2％，达到了较高水平．     

GEO轨道相对论电子日积分通量预报统计建模

基于辐射带相对论电子哨声波局地加速理论,将地磁AE指数作为源电子通量和通量各向异性的指标,将地磁Dst指数作为损失机制的指标,利用滑动窗口线性滤波器方法,建立了一个地球静止轨道大于2MeV相对论电子预报模型.利用该模型开展了2000-2009年地球静止轨道相对论电子通量预报试验.研究发现,这10年总预报效率为0.818,2003年的预报效率（0.633）最低,2009年的预报效率（0.856）最高.模型预报效果与持续模型相比有很大提高,略低于利用太阳风参数作为输入的同类预报模型的预报效果.这说明即使在缺少太阳风参数的情况下,该模型利用地磁扰动参数也能取得较好的预报效果.当模型输入参数增加了太阳风速度时,即综合考虑了行星际扰动和磁层扰动对辐射带粒子加速过程的影响,模型逐年的预报效率进一步提升.其中,2005年的预报效率提升了9.5%,这10年的总预报效率增加到0.848,预报值与实测值之间的线性相关系数为0.918,均方根误差为0.422.      

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

上游太阳风中高能电子向同步轨道区的传输

通常认为，同步轨道区的电子通量增加是由于磁暴或者上游太阳风高速流的扰动所引起．近来的观测表明，起源于太阳活动的行星际高能电子也是引起同步轨道电子通量增加的重要原因之一．Zhao等在研究2000年7月14日太阳剧烈活动时发现，同步轨道区相对论电子通量巨幅增加时没有观察到上游太阳风高速流的扰动，并且磁暴发生在电子通量事件之后．采用解析磁场模型和实际磁场模型(T96模型)模拟来自太阳的相对论电子在磁尾中的运动特性．计算结果表明，当行星际磁场南向时，进入到磁尾的行星际相对论电子可以从较远的磁尾区域运动到同步轨道区域．这一研究结果从理论上论证了起源于太阳活动的高能电子可以对同步轨道区相对论电子通量的增加产生重要的作用．     

PC-index fluctuations and intermittency of the magnetospheric dynamics

One minute resolution Polar Cap (PC) index was used for the analysis of magnetospheric dynamics. The 1995–2000 time series analysis revealed that the power spectrum of the PC-index fluctuations is a power law in a wide range of frequencies. However, the obtained exponents differ for low and high frequency regions. The probability distribution functions of the PC-index fluctuations show a strong non-gaussian shape, depending on the time of increment. This indicates that the PC-index exhibits intermittency, previously detected in solar wind and auroral electrojet index fluctuations. The PC-index probability distribution functions were fitted by the functional form proposed by Castaing et al. [Velocity probability density functions of high Reynolds number turbulence. Physica D. 46, 177–200, 1990] to describe intermittency phenomena in ordinary turbulent fluid flows. The agreement between the fitting parameters obtained for the PC index and those reported before for solar wind magnetic field fluctuations is within 30%; which is noticeably less than the difference between the same parameters of solar wind and the AE-index fluctuations. This fact indicates that the PC index reflects the solar wind influence on the high-latitude magnetosphere, especially during the summer.     

Two-velocity structure observed in the inner solar wind

Measurements of the motion of plasma density inhomogeneities in the inner solar wind are presented. The speeds were estimated using a cross-correlation analysis of radio frequency fluctuations of the Galileo spacecraft measured simultaneously at widely spaced ground stations. The radial projections of the correlation baselines on the pattern plane were of the order of several thousand kilometers. For cross-correlation functions calculated with comparatively short averaging times, we find that a pronounced two-velocity configuration is occasionally observed over the range of heliocentric distances 20 R < R < 40 R. The typical mean speed for such observations is about 300–400 km/s and the difference between the two predominant speeds is about 150–200 km/s. These results may indicate that the density fluctuations are associated with slow magnetosonic waves propagating in opposite directions at the local speed of sound in the reference frame moving with the mean solar wind speed. Quite reasonable estimates of the solar wind speed and speed of sound are obtained from this model. Another possible explanation of the two-velocity structures is that two independent solar wind streams are present simultaneously along different segments of the radio ray path.     

Noise in wireless systems from solar radio bursts

Solar radio bursts were first discovered as result of their interference in early defensive radar systems during the Second World War (1942). Such bursts can still affect radar systems, as well as new wireless technologies. We have investigated a forty-year record of solar radio burst data (1960–1999) as well as several individual radio events in the 23rd solar cycle. This paper reviews the results of a portion of this research. Statistically, for frequencies f  1 GHz (near current wireless bands), there can be a burst with amplitudes >10³ solar flux units (SFU; 1 SFU = 10⁻²² W/m²) every few days during solar maximum conditions, and such burst levels can produce problems in contemporary wireless systems.