电离层暴时经验模型STORM在中国区域的适应性研究

利用中国区域内9个垂测站1976---1987年一个太阳活动周期的电离层暴时f0F2数据, 统计分析了电离层暴事件的等级, 以及不同等级的电离层暴随季节和地磁纬度的分布特征. 研究发现, 中小型电离层暴在春秋季发生的概率较大, 不同季节的发生次数与地磁纬度具有明显的关系. 利用STORM模型对电离层暴时f0F2和大型及特大型电离层暴时f0F2的预测值与月中值进行了比较. 结果表明, 除了冬季误差增大外, 发生电离层暴时STORM模型能够有效地改善月中值模型. 增加中国的暴时数据, 并提高对冬季的暴时参数f0F2的预测是改善STORM模型的重要因素. 建立合适的暴时指数来预测f0F2是未来研究的重点.      

地磁逐日比与新疆及周边地区强震关系

利用2009年1月1日至2019年12月31日新疆及周边区域12个地磁台站的地磁垂直分量日变幅数据，计算其日变幅逐日比，进而分析新疆及周边地区逐日比异常特征，研究其与磁暴和强震的关系.结果表明:强地震多发生在逐日比异常出现后半年，其中等待时间最短为20天，等待时间最长为220天，震中多位于异常集中区域或异常分界线及附近区域；新疆及周边地区逐日比异常报对率为78%，异常虚报率为22%，研究时间段内没有出现漏报现象，说明新疆及周边地区强地震与逐日比高值之间存在一定的相关性；若异常日前后未发生强磁暴或其Dst指数小于异常第二日，则异常可能性较大.本研究增强了地磁垂直分量逐日比异常判据的可靠性，其结果可以为新疆强震活跃期的判定及地震预报提供研究参考依据.      

F2层对地磁扰动的响应

利用37个电离层垂直探测站1974-1986年的数据,采用f0F2与地磁ap指数相关分析的方法,首次得到一个太阳活动周期各年东亚-澳大利亚扇区,欧洲-非洲扇区和美洲-东太平洋扇区F2层对地磁扰动响应随地磁纬度的分布.结果指出,地磁高纬和中纬地区为负响应,低纬和赤道地区为正响应,大约在±30°附近换向.最大正响应在磁赤道附近,最大负响应在地磁纬度±50°附近,最大负响应的幅度大于最大正响应的幅度.存在明显的经度差别和南北半球不对称性.     

地磁活动对电离层f0F2月中值的影响与国际参考电离层误差

利用我国9个中低纬度的电离层观测站在1977-1986年间观测的f0F2月中值,按每月的平均地磁活动指数Ap分为地磁活动高（Ap≥5）和低（Ap＜15）两种情况,研究了地磁活动对f0F2月中值平均低纬电离层驼峰区演变的影响,并考察了国际参考电离层（IRI）的误差．     

玉树地震前的电离层异常现象分析

分析了玉树地震前地基电离层探测临界频率、GPS TEC和卫星探测原位等离子体参量等多个参数的扰动变化信息, 研究了不同高度异常变化的时空关联性. 分析发现, 在地震前一天的4月13日, 多个电离层参量出现同步扰动异常, 电离层临界频率f₀F₂异常相对滑动中值增大40%, 异常空间上存在从震中东南向西南漂移的特性; GPS TEC异常增强15TECU (1TECU=1016m-2)左右, 分布于震中南部经度15°范围内, 且有明显的磁共轭效应; DEMETER观测的原位氧离子密度N_i(O+) 4月13日为1-4月中最强的一天, 异常分布偏向赤道区, 但仅局限在30°-50°左右的经度范围内. 综合三个参量的异常特征发现, 无论是空间的局地性还是时间上的密切关联均反映这次电离层扰动可能与玉树地震孕育有关. 结合其他观测信息, 进一步探讨了这次地震孕育过程的地震电离层耦合机理.      

2009年6至7月华南地区电离层TEC扰动研究

电离层TEC（Total Electron Content）扰动与多种扰动源相关联．2009年6至7月期间存在地震和日全食的扰动源．利用广州地区GPS监测网在2009年6至7月连续监测到的TEC数据,通过采用前15天数据的滑动窗口对数据进行处理,从时间序列和空间分布两方面分析了华南地区电离层TEC扰动特征．结果显示,2009年6至7月华南地区电离层TEC扰动和该时期发生的地震以及日全食事件可能有关联;2009年7月多个地震发生引起的电离层扰动特征为,震前出现的是正异常,发震当天或震后有可能是正异常,也有可能是负异常;7月22日日全食当天TEC扰动为正异常,推测该正异常是地磁活动、地震活动及日全食综合效应的结果．     

新疆于田7.2 级地震前的电离层电磁扰动

利用法国DEMETER 卫星观测的电磁、等离子体等参量的观测数据分析了2008 年3 月21日新疆于田7.2 级地震前离子温度Ti、离子密度Ni、甚低频(VLF) 磁场等出现的异常变化. Ti分析显示震中区上空出现的突变信号在更大空间多次重复出现, 作为地震异常的信度不高. 通过多次重访轨道对比发现H+ 离子密度整体变化形态一致, 但夏秋季节的峰值变化幅度是冬春季节的1 倍. 通过把2008 年的数据与2007 年和2006 年同期的重访轨道数据进行对比, 发现2008 年在于田地震前1 个月左右Ni 在峰值区呈现了显著增强的变化趋势, 并一直持续到地震前, 2008 年2 月以后的峰值幅度是其他两年同期的~1 倍多. 对于磁场频谱数据, 抽取了震中区域上空2000 km 范围内多个轨道的单频(400 Hz)信息, 并在研究区域统一纬度空间(0~60°N) 进行了时间序列对比, 结果发现地震前2 日内震中区域上空400 Hz 谱密度增加了近一个数量级, 反映空间存在明显的VLF 电磁辐射现象. 对于3 月20 日极低频段(ELF) 三分量电磁场的矢量分析显示观测时段内存在一些左旋极化电磁信号, 反映了空间电离层离子密度变化伴随ELF 电磁辐射信息. 综合分析认为, 这次地震前各参量的变化过程与目前地震孕育及电离层耦合机理相吻合.      

低纬地磁Z分量的半年变化

利用武汉、广州、泉州和琼中等4个低纬地磁站连续多年的地磁资料，计算了各月5个磁静日Z分量日均值与中午1100---1300时段平均值之差(Dz)，对每年12个Dz采用多元回归分析方法，得到各年的半年变化幅度和相位．结果表明：4个站的Dz每年都有半年变化现象；半年变化幅度与太阳活动有关，一般来说，太阳活动高年Dz半年变化幅度明显大于太阳活动低年；太阳活动本身的半年变化，对Dz半年变化幅度有显著的调制作用；Dz半年变化的相位在3—4月(或9—10月)，即极大值出现在分季；低纬地区地磁Z分量存在显著的半年变化，能够反映赤道电急流也有明显的半年变化，这再一次证明，赤道电急流幅度的半年变化，通过“喷泉效应”使得电离层，f0F2产生半年变化，其是产生，f0F2半年变化的一个主要因素．     

2009年7月22日日全食期间电离层参量的变化

利用多个电离层垂测站的数据和IGS-TEC数据资料, 结合日地空间环境指数, 分析了2009年7月22日日全食期间中国地区电离层参量(反射回波最低频率fmin及f0F2和TEC)的变化特征. 结果表明, 日食发生后fmin迅速降低, 日食结束后fmin迅速恢复到正常水平; 在食甚时刻附近, f0F2和TEC出现明显的降低, 显示了明显的光食效应. 日食结束后5~6 h, f0F2和TEC出现不同程度的正扰动, 在驼峰区更明显; 日食结束后9~10 h, f0F2和TEC出现较显著的负扰动. 由于此次日食发生时伴随着中等强度的磁暴和低纬电场穿透等空间天气事件, 给此次日食电离层效应的深入分析带来很大困难.      

基于IGS电离层TEC格网的扰动特征统计分析

电离层总电子含量（TEC）是研究空间天气特性的重要参量,通过分析电离层TEC,可以了解空间环境的变化特征.利用IGS提供的1999—2016年全球电离层TEC格网数据,按照地磁纬度将全球划分为高、中、中低、低磁纬四个区域,计算不同区域的电离层扰动;利用大量统计数据选取电离层扰动事件的判定阈值,分析电离层扰动与太阳活动、时空之间的关系;计算电离层扰动指数与地磁活动之间的相关系数.结果显示:电离层扰动与太阳活动变化具有较强的正相关特性.在太阳活动低年,电离层扰动事件发生的概率约为1.79%,在太阳活动高年发生扰动的概率约为10.18%.在空间分布上,无论是太阳活动高年还是低年,高磁纬地区发生扰动事件的概率均大于其他磁纬出现扰动事件的概率.计算得到的中磁纬和中低磁纬地区电离层扰动指数与全球地磁指数Ap的相关系数分别为0.57和0.56,说明电离层扰动指数与Ap具有较好的相关关系;高磁纬电离层扰动指数与Ap的相关系数为0.44;低磁纬扰动指数与Ap的相关系数为0.39.以上结果表明,不同区域电离层扰动与全球地磁指数Ap的相关性不同,测定区域地磁指数可能会提高与电离层扰动的相关性.      

Variations of ionospheric total electron content before three strong earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet region

We investigate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet region before three large earthquakes (M > 7.0). The temporal and spatial TEC variations were used to detect the ionospheric possible precursors of these earthquakes. We identified two TEC enhancements in the afternoon local time 9 days and 2–3 days before each earthquake, between which a TEC decrement occurred 3–6 days before earthquakes. These anomalies happened in the area of about 30° in latitude and the maximum is localized equatorward from the epicenters. These TEC anomalies can be found in all three earthquakes regardless the geomagnetic conditions. The features of these anomalies have something in common and may have differences from those caused by geomagnetic storms. Our results suggest that these ionospheric TEC perturbations may be precursors of the large earthquakes.     

Ionospheric anomalies of local earthquakes detected by GPS TEC measurements using data from Tashkent and Kitab stations

This paper reports the ionospheric anomalies observed during strong local earthquakes (M?5.0) which occurred mostly in and around Uzbekistan in seismically active zones, during years 2006 to 2009 within approximately 1000 km distance from the observing GPS stations located in Tashkent and Kitab, Uzbekistan. The solar and geomagnetic conditions were quiet during occurrence of the selected strong earthquakes. We produce Total Electron Content (TEC) time series over both sites and apply them to detect anomalous TEC signals preceding or accompanying the local earthquakes. The results show anomalous increase or decrease of TEC before or during the earthquakes. In general the anomalies occurred 1–7 days before the earthquakes as ionospheric electromagnetic precursors. To identify the anomalous values of TEC we calculated differential TEC (dTEC). dTEC is obtained by subtracting monthly averaged diurnal vTEC from the values of observed vTEC at each epoch. This procedure removes normal diurnal variations of vTEC. The present results are in good agreement with the previous observations on ionospheric earthquake precursors reported by various researchers.     

Ionospheric disturbances on 8 September, 2010: Was it connected with the incoming moderate Chongqing earthquake?

Earthquake prediction stimulates the searches for a correlation between seismic activity and ionospheric anomalies. Contrary to common focuses on strong earthquakes, we report the ionospheric disturbances, 2 days before a moderate Ms = 4.7 Chongqing earthquake (29.4°N, 105.5°E, depth = 7.0 km, occurred at 21:21 LT, 10 September, 2010) with the data of ground-based ionosondes and IGS receivers. The data covering the period under the quiet geomagnetic conditions and a geomagnetic storm was analyzed with upper and lower bounds. It is found that there were significant enhancements of foF2 and total electron content (TEC) on the afternoon of 8 September, 2010, with a limited area close to the epicentre, which was different from the feature of ionospheric perturbations triggered by the geomagnetic storm on 15 September. Taking into account the heliogeomagnetical condition, we conclude that the observed ionospheric enhancements were very likely associated with the forthcoming moderate Chongqing earthquake, which implies that the relationship between the amplitudes of ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes is very complicated.     

利用神经网络预报中国地区电离层f0F2

利用神经网络技术并考虑太阳和地磁活动对电离层的影响,提出了一种提前5 h预报中国地区电离层临界频率f0F2的方法.网络输入包括时间、季节、地理纬度、太阳天顶角、最近一天的12个观测值(F-23,F-22,F-21,F-20,F-19,F-18,F-5,F-4,F-3,F-2,F-1,F0)和前30天滑动平均值(A-24,A-23,A-22,A-4,A-3A-2,A-1,A0),网络输出分别为未来5 h的f0F2值F+1,F+2,F+3,F+4,F+5.选取乌鲁木齐、长春、重庆和广州站1958-1968年间的数据训练网络,利用中国9个电离层站的历史数据检验网络,根据均方根误差衡量网络性能的好坏.结果表明,神经网络的预报结果能较好地符合实测数据.这说明利用神经网络实现中国地区电离层f0F2的时空预报是可行的.     

Ionospheric precursors observed at low latitudes around the time of koyna earthquake

On December 11, 1967 at 05:21 LT, an immense earthquake of magnitude 6.7 struck Koyna, the Indian province of Maharashtra. Its epicenter was located at geographic latitude 17.37°N and longitude 73.75°E with depth of about 3 km. Ground based measurements show variation in the critical frequency of ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) before and after the shock. In the present study the behavior of F2-region of ionosphere has been examined over the equatorial and low latitudinal region ionosphere during the month of December 1967 around the time of Koyna earthquake. For this purpose, the ionospheric data collected with the help of ground-based ionosondes installed at Hyderabad (located close to the earthquake epicenter) Ahmedabad, Trichirapulli, Kodaikanal and Trivendrum have been utilized. The upper and lower bound of Interquartile range (IRQ) are constructed to monitor the variations in foF2 other than day-to-day and diurnal pattern for finding the seismo-ionospheric precursors. Some anomalous electron density variations are observed between post midnight hours to local pre-noon hours at each station. These anomalies are strongly time dependent and appeared a couple of days before the main shock. The period considered in this study comes under the quiet geomagnetic conditions. Hence, the observed anomalies (which are more than the usual day-to-day variability) over all stations are likely to be associated with this imminent earthquake. The possible mechanism to explain these anomalies is the effect of seismogenic electric field generated just above the surface of earth within the earthquake preparation zone well before the earthquake due to emission of radioactive particles and then propagated upward, which perturbs the F-region ionosphere.     

利用F_(10.7)短期预报电离层F_0F_2

通过对电离层历史数据和太阳射电流量F10.7的回归分析,提出了一种单站电离层f0F2的短期预报方法,以F10.7的流动平均值fc为输入,以未米3天的f0F2为输出,分别利用中国地区8个台站的数据进行检验,分析不同太阳活动水平、季节以及地方时预报误差的分布特征.结果表明,该方法能有效地预测未来1～3天的f0F2.该方法还可应用于其他电离层参量的短期预报.     

Statistical analysis of the ionospheric ion density recorded by DEMETER in the epicenter areas of earthquakes as well as in their magnetically conjugate point areas

Results of a statistical variation of total ion density observed in the vicinity of epicenters as well as around magnetically conjugated points of earthquakes are presented in this paper. Two data sets are used: the ion density measured by DEMETER during about 6.5?years and the list of strong earthquakes (M_W?≥?4.8) occurring globally during this period (14,764 earthquakes in total). First of all, ionospheric perturbations with 23–120?s observation time corresponding to spatial scales of 160–840?km are automatically detected by a software (64,287 anomalies in total). Second, it is checked if a perturbation could be associated either with the epicenter of an earthquake or with its magnetically conjugated point (distance?<?1500?km and time?<?15?days before the earthquake). The index Kp?<?3 is also considered in order to reduce the effect of the geomagnetic activity on the ionosphere during this period. The results show that it is possible to detect variations of the ionospheric parameters above the epicenter areas as well as above their conjugated points. About one third of the earthquakes are detected with ionospheric influence on both sides of the Earth. There is a trend showing that the perturbation length increases as the magnitude of the detected EQs but it is more obvious for large magnitude. The probability that a perturbation appears is higher on the day of the earthquake and then gradually decreases when the time before the earthquake increases. The spatial distribution of perturbations shows that the probability of perturbations appearing southeast of the epicenter before an earthquake is a little bit higher and that there is an obvious trend because perturbations appear west of the conjugated point of an earthquake.     

Ionospheric anomalies observed over South Korea preceding the Great Tohoku earthquake of 2011

We investigated the ionospheric anomalies observed before the Tohoku earthquake, which occurred near the northeast coast of Honshu, Japan on 11 March, 2011. Based on data from a ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) network on the Korean Peninsula, ionospheric anomalies were detected in the total electron content (TEC) during the daytime a few days before earthquake. Ionospheric TEC anomalies appeared on 5, 8 and 11 March. In particular, the ionospheric disturbances on 8 March evidenced a remarkable increase in TEC. The GPS TEC variation associated with the Tohoku earthquake was an increase of approximately 20 total electron content units (TECU), observed simultaneously in local and global TEC measurements. To investigate these pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies, space weather conditions such as the solar activity index (F10.7) and geomagnetic activity indices (the Kp and Dst indices) were examined. We also created two-dimensional TEC maps to visual the spatial variations in the ionospheric anomalies preceding the earthquake.