The cosmic ray ground level enhancement of 6 November 1997.

The relativistic solar proton event of 6 November 1997 resulted in the first ground-level enhancement (GLE) of solar cycle 23. The earliest onset was around 1215 UT but was up to 15 minutes later at some neutron monitor locations. The time of maximum intensity also varied significantly over the world-wide neutron monitor network. The modeled particle distributions and spectra are presented. The apparent particle arrival direction is found to be largely consistent with propagation outward from the sun along interplanetary magnetic field lines.     

Neutron monitor asymptotic directions of viewing during the event of 13 December 2006

During the recent ground level enhancement of 13 December 2006, also known as GLE70, solar cosmic ray particles of energy bigger that ∼500 MeV/nucleon propagated inside the Earth’s magnetosphere and finally accessed low-altitude satellites and ground level neutron monitors. The magnitude and the characteristics of this event registered at different neutron monitor stations of the worldwide network can be interpreted adequately on the basis of an estimation of the solar particle trajectories in the near Earth interplanetary space. In this work, an extended representation of the Earth’s magnetic field was realized applying the Tsyganenko 1989 model. Using a numerical back-tracing technique the solar proton trajectories inside the magnetospheric field of the Earth were calculated for a variety of particles, initializing their travel at different locations, covering a wide range of energies. In this way, the asymptotic directions of viewing were calculated for a significant number of neutron monitor stations, providing crucial information on the Earth’s “magnetospheric optics” for primary solar cosmic rays, on the top of the atmosphere, during the big solar event of December 2006. The neutron monitor network has been treated, therefore, as a multidimensional tool that gives insights into the arrival directions of solar cosmic ray particles as well as their spatial and energy distributions during extreme solar events.     

Unexpected burst of solar activity recorded by neutron monitors during October–November 2003

During the extreme burst of solar activity in October–November 2003, a series of outstanding events distinguished by their magnitude and peculiarities were recorded by the ground based neutron monitor network. The biggest and most productive in 23rd solar cycle active region 486 generated the most significant series of solar flares among of which the flare X28/3B on November 4, 2003 was the mostly powerful over the history of X-ray solar observations. The fastest arrival of the interplanetary disturbance from the Sun after the flare event in August 1972 and the highest solar wind velocity and IMF intensity were observed during these events. In one-week period three ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays were recorded by neutron monitor network (28, 29 October and 2 November 2003). Maximum proton energy in these events seems to be ranged from 5 to 10 GeV. Joint analysis of data from ground level stations (neutron monitors) and satellite measurements allows the estimation of the particle path length, the onset time of the injection on the Sun and some other proton flux characteristics.     

Calculations and observations of solar particle enhancements to the radiation environment at aircraft altitudes.

Solar particle events can give greatly enhanced radiation at aircraft altitudes, but are both difficult to predict and to calculate retrospectively. This enhanced radiation can give significant dose to aircrew and greatly increase the rate of single event effects in avionics. Validation of calculations is required but only very few events have been measured in flight. The CREAM detector on Concorde detected the event of 29 September 1989 and also four periods of enhancement during the events of 19-24 October 1989. Instantaneous rates were enhanced by up to a factor ten compared with quiet-time cosmic rays, while flight-averages were enhanced by up to a factor six. Calculations are described for increases in radiation at aircraft altitudes using solar particle spectra in conjunction with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. In order to obtain solar particle spectra with sufficient accuracy over the required energy range it is necessary to combine space data with measurements from a wide range of geomagnetically dispersed, ground-level neutron monitors. Such spectra have been obtained for 29 September 1989 and 24 October 1989 and these are used to calculate enhancements that are compared with the data from CREAM on Concorde. The effect of cut-off rigidity suppression by geomagnetic activity is shown to be significant. For the largest event on record on 23 February 1956, there are no space data but there are data from a number of ground-level cosmic-ray detectors. Predictions for all events show very steep dependencies on both latitude and altitude. At high latitude and altitude (17 km) calculated increases with respect to cosmic rays are a factor 70 and 500 respectively for 29 September 1989 and 23 February 1956. The levels of radiation for high latitude, subsonic routes are calculated, using London to Los Angeles as an example, and can exceed 1 mSv, which is significantly higher than for Concorde routes from Europe to New York. The sensitivity of the calculations to spectral fitting, geomagnetic activity and other assumptions demonstrates the requirement for widespread carriage of radiation monitors on aircraft.     

Test alert service against very large SEP Events

The Aragats Solar Environment Center provides real time monitoring of different components of secondary cosmic ray fluxes. We plan to use this information to establish an early warning alert system against extreme, very large solar particle events with hard spectra, dangerous for satellite electronics and for the crew of the Space Station. Neutron monitors operating at altitude 2000 and 3200 m are continuously gathering data to detect possible abrupt variations of the particle count rates. Additional high precision detectors measuring muon and electron fluxes, along with directional information are under construction on Mt. Aragats. Registered ground level enhancements, in neutron and muon fluxes along with correlations between different species of secondary cosmic rays are analyzed to reveal possible correlations with expected times of arrival of dangerous solar energetic particles.     

A new dynamical atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) model for epidemiological studies.

A new Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) model is currently being developed for use in radiation dose evaluation in epidemiological studies targeted to atmospheric flight personnel such as civilian airlines crewmembers. The model will allow computing values for biologically relevant parameters, e.g. dose equivalent and effective dose, for individual flights from 1945. Each flight is described by its actual three dimensional flight profile, i.e. geographic coordinates and altitudes varying with time. Solar modulated primary particles are filtered with a new analytical fully angular dependent geomagnetic cut off rigidity model, as a function of latitude, longitude, arrival direction, altitude and time. The particle transport results have been obtained with a technique based on the three-dimensional Monte Carlo transport code FLUKA, with a special procedure to deal with HZE particles. Particle fluxes are transformed into dose-related quantities and then integrated all along the flight path to obtain the overall flight dose. Preliminary validations of the particle transport technique using data from the AIR Project ER-2 flight campaign of measurements are encouraging. Future efforts will deal with modeling of the effects of the aircraft structure as well as inclusion of solar particle events.     

Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks

We are developing a system to predict the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at the Earth. These events are routinely detected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA’s ACE spacecraft, which is positioned at Lagrange Point 1 (L1). In this work, we use historical EPAM data to train an IP shock forecasting algorithm. Our approach centers on the observation that these shocks are often preceded by identifiable signatures in the energetic particle intensity data. Using EPAM data, we trained an artificial neural network to predict the time remaining until the shock arrival. After training this algorithm on 37 events, it was able to forecast the arrival time for 19 previously unseen events. The average uncertainty in the prediction 24 h in advance was 8.9 h, while the uncertainty improved to 4.6 h when the event was 12 h away. This system is accessible online, where it provides predictions of shock arrival times using real-time EPAM data.     

A study of the ground level enhancement of 23 February 1956

One of the greatest and most famous increase of solar cosmic rays over the neutron monitor epoch is the ground level enhancement in 1956. All future proton events are inevitable when compared with this one and therefore it is necessary to provide the efficiency of such a comparison derived from the existing data. In this paper, we return to the analysis of ground level observations on 23 February 1956 in order to model more precisely the solar cosmic ray behaviour. The extremely high magnitude of this effect allowed various spectral characteristics of solar cosmic rays, their anisotropy, differential and integral proton fluxes, and angular distribution of the source of solar particle anisotropy to be obtained with sufficient accuracy on the basis of available data from 13 neutron monitors. The most outstanding feature of this event was a narrow and extremely intensive beam of ultra relativistic particles arriving at Earth at the beginning of the event. This unique beam was not long and its width did not exceed 30–40°, thus, its contribution to solar particle density was not significant. Many features of this GLE are apparently explained by the peculiarity of particle interplanetary propagation from a remote (limb or behind of limb) source.     

Contribution of ionospheric TEC anomalies to detecting the seismic precursors related to the 2008 Oran-Algeria event

The ionospheric anomalies observed before any notable earthquake have become the subject of predictive research in the field of seismo-ionospheric coupling and/or Solid Earth-Atmosphere. In this paper, the concept of ionospheric modeling has been applied using total electronic content (TEC); derived from dual-frequency GPS recordings from about sixty permanent geodetic stations. The study and the analysis of the anomalous TEC variations, quantifiable on a regional scale, allowed us to detect the principal precursors of the M_w 5.5 earthquake that hit Oran on June 06th, 2008. The envisaged analytical approach is based principally on the time delays estimation relating to the seismic responses from the triggering (lithospheric seismic source) until their recording in data Rinex (GPS_IGS stations) through the reflection system of the electromagnetic waves on the ionospheric level (F2-layer).Indeed, in term of location, the longitude-latitude coordinates of the Oran event epicenter (0.658°W, 35.883°N) affecting the coastal margin of Western Algeria without too much material damage. Although the magnitude of this earthquake is qualified moderate (M_w 5.5, seismic intensity scale V-VI), one can observe apparent disturbances in the terrestrial electromagnetic spectrum associated with ionospheric TEC variations. In the domain of geodetic data analysis, we have noted a significant increase in the ionospheric TEC, which announces the arrival of a seismic precursor several days before the main studied event. Against this background, we emphasize that any seismic event, of significant magnitude, often carries information associated with other variants involved in the package of earthquake studied. Among these variants we evoke the effect of the magnetic field and the effect of the surrounding environment, etc. As for the specific behavior of the GPS_TEC signal, obtained from the Rinex data, and its interaction with the associated seismic activity, we highlight the existence of a spectral conformity between the geomagnetic field and that of the TEC content (spontaneous polarization of the TEC).Finally, we have just confirmed the effectiveness of this forecasting approach which relates the seismo-ionospheric precursors that are embedded in the physical trace of the electromagnetic signal relative to significant and/or moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 5); such as the envisaged case of the 2008 Oran event.     

A simulation analysis of systematic errors in ion arrival angle and drift velocity from the satellite borne ion drift meter

As one payload of a Chinese seismic satellite program, an ion drift meter (IDM) will measure drift velocity of thermal ions at an altitude of 500 km. Previous works have shown that such instruments use biased grids to create nonuniform potential in the grid planes, which brings systematic errors to the inferred parameters. A commercial finite element analysis software is used to simulate this instrument in the exact size. The error sources from thermal velocity, nonuniform transparency of real grids and potential depression in the grid planes are explained. The simulation results show that the arrival angle and drift velocity will be underestimated in all the conditions and the maximal error will be about −0.87° and −121 m/s, respectively. Furthermore, the relative error of the inferred arrival angle and the drift velocity will be inversely correlated with the arrival angle because of the lensing effect of the potential depression. This simulation provides a quantificational method of evaluating and correcting the data during in situ operation.     

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

Using cross-correlation techniques to assess the validity of AP8 at low altitude

Background effects, such as single event upsets, are used as proxy data sets to evaluate AP8 at low altitude. The approach is to use a 2-D (longitude and latitude) cross-correlation between the background data set and the current-epoch AP8 predicted fluxes. The technique can be used to determine the energy of the particle that is producing a particular effect. This cross-correlation technique shows that using AP8 with a present-epoch magnetic field model accurately predicts the present location of the South Atlantic Anomaly proton flux enhancement and that a dual-peaked intensity structure above 100 MeV in the model is an artifact of AP8 and its interpolation routines.     

The atmospheric radiation response to solar-particle-events.

High-energy solar particles, produced in association with solar flares and coronal mass ejections, occasionally bombard the earth's atmosphere. resulting in radiation intensities additional to the background cosmic radiation. Access of these particles to the earth's vicinity during times of geomagnetic disturbances are not adequately described by using static geomagnetic field models. These solar fluxes are also often distributed non uniformly in space, so that fluxes measured by satellites obtained at great distances from the earth and which sample large volumes of space around the earth cannot be used to predict fluxes locally at the earth's surface. We present here a method which uses the ground-level neutron monitor counting rates as adjoint sources of the flux in the atmosphere immediately above them to obtain solar-particle effective dose rates as a function of position over the earth's surface. We have applied this approach to the large September 29-30, 1989 ground-level event (designated GLE 42) to obtain the magnitude and distribution of the solar-particle effective dose rate from an atypically large event. The results of these calculations clearly show the effect of the softer particle spectra associated with solar particle events, as compared with galactic cosmic rays, results in a greater sensitivity to the geomagnetic field, and, unlike cosmic rays, the near-absence of a "knee" near 60 degrees geomagnetic latitude.     

Relative fluxes of shock and prompt peaks in SEP event time profiles

Peak fluxes are an important property of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) event time profiles from both astro/heliophysical and applications perspectives. However, the peak flux in an event may occur at the event onset, or at the time of the interplanetary shock arrival (the ESP or energetic storm particles). This makes an important difference in the interpretation of the peak flux, and in any attempts to characterize or model it. This paper describes a study of SEP data sets from ACE, IMP-8 and GOES toward determining the relative properties of these peak fluxes for protons with energies near 1, 10, and 50 MeV. The results suggest that for gradual events with both peaks, the ESP peak often dominates at 1 MeV energies and is dominant about half the time at 10 MeV. Moreover, the prompt peak fluxes can be used to estimate the shock peak (ESP event) up to days ahead, especially in the lower energy range.     

Ozone destruction by solar electrons in relation to solar variability and the terrestrial latitude

Precipitating electrons from the radiation belts with energies greater than from 150 keV to 5 MeV have been correlated with ozone data of a large number of stations located within 40–70° N. Energetic electrons have been collected by the low altitude polar Russian satellite METEOR while ozone data have been compiled from almost ninety (90) stations located all over the world within the latitude zone 40–70° N.     

Multiple-site investigation of the properties of an HF radio channel and the ionosphere using Digital Radio Mondiale broadcasting

The Digital Radio Mondiale (DRM), one of the new digital radio broadcasting standards, has been designed to overcome typical short wave radio channel difficulties, such as the multipath propagation and fast temporal changes of the received signal level, both related to the properties of the ionosphere along the path of propagation. In particular, some of the RF carriers used in the applied COFDM transmission technique serve to estimate the current state of the radio channel to enable the proper demodulation of the received signal.We have been detecting such RF carriers on select frequency channels (standard DRM broadcast) using a network of recording stations located in different parts of Poland in order to collect data on the HF radio channel. We have been also evaluating the usefulness of this procedure in providing information on the current state of the ionosphere in the refraction region between the transmitter and receivers. When the DRM system becomes more widespread, this method can supplement data that comes from the ionosondes, since it does not require much financial resources and the receivers can be easily scattered over a large area. This paper presents a set of experimental data and its analysis.     

Low altitude dose measurements from APEX, CRRES and DMSP

Dosimeter data taken on the APEX (1994–1996), CRRES (1990–1991) and DMSP (1984–1987) satellites have been used to study the low altitude (down to 350 km) radiation environment. Of special concern has been the inner edge of the inner radiation belt due to its steep gradient. We have constructed dose models of the inner edge of the belt from all three spacecraft and put them into a personal computer utility, called APEXRAD, that calculates dose for user-selected orbits. The variation of dose for low altitude, circular orbits is given as a function of altitude, inclination and particle type. Dose-depth curves show that shielding greater than 1/4 in Al is largely ineffectual for low altitude orbits. The contribution of outer zone electrons to low altitude dose is shown to be important only for thin shields and to have significant variation with magnetic activity and solar cycle.     

On compositional variations of heavy ions during solar particle events

Intensity-time profiles of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions (C, O, Fe) in the MeV/nucleon energy range have been analyzed for one solar particle event following the solar flare on September 23, 1978. The data have been obtained with the wide angle double dE/dx-E sensor of the Max-Planck-Institut/University of Maryland experiment onboard ISEE-3. We found time variations in the iron to helium ratio of up to 2 orders of magnitude and a significant variation of the O/He ratio during this event, whereas the C/O-ratio at the same energy/nucleon appears to be time independent. We investigated the influence of a rigidity dependent mean free path in interplanetary space and of rigidity dependent coronal propagation on heavy ion ratios during solar particle events. We found that both the magnitude and time scale of the ratio changes during the September 23 event cannot be explained by rigidity dependent interplanetary or coronal propagation alone. These ratio changes are probably caused by multiple injection at the sun.     

Possible influence of solar radiation variability on the stratospheric temperature

Using daily temperature data available from radio-sonde measurements over Barajas (Madrid), La Coruña and Palma de Mallorca stations, for the time span 1971–1982 and an altitude range 100-30 mb, a study is made comparing temperatures at differents levels with the 10.7 cm flux in order to check whether radiation variability must be included in lower stratospheric models. At the latitude studied, stratospheric temperatures are uninfluenced by sudden warming phenomena avoiding difficulties of masking found in previous studies.     

The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.