A review of short-term climate variability mechanisms

Climate varies from seasonal to centennial time scales. In the last two decades progress has been made to better understand several aspects of short-term variability of the Earth’s climate system. Tropical Pacific is dominated by a single mode of interannual climate variability, which reflects the coupling of the Ocean and the atmosphere and is expressed by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The Pacific climate contains another mode of variability similar to the ENSO, but varying on a decadal scale, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) mode. Variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Atlantic also play an important role in modulating the climate variability. The SST variability in this basin might be explained by at least five modes: separate modes in the Tropical North Atlantic and Tropical South Atlantic, equatorial mode, dipole mode and cross-equatorial SST anomaly gradient mode. Among these modes, the equatorial mode contains strong interannual variability, while the dipole and the cross-equatorial SST anomaly gradient modes contain strong decadal variability. Some aspects of the climate variability, with emphasis on the ENSO, PDO modes in the Pacific and the Atlantic SST modes on the interannual and decadal time scales, are discussed in the present paper.     

Detection of surface temperature anomaly of the Sea of Marmara

Monitoring sea surface temperature (SST) over a long-term and detecting the anomalies highly contribute to understanding the prevailing water quality of the sea. Earth observation satellite images are the key data sources that offer the long-term SST detection in a cost and time effective way. Since the Sea of Marmara in Türkiye is surrounded by the highly populated provinces, the water quality of the sea has gained importance for scientific and public communities over the years. This article emphasizes on the significance of detecting SST trend and corresponding anomalies of the Sea of Marmara over the past 32 years. To address the SST variations of the Sea of Marmara in time, a comprehensive set of both field and satellite data regarding SSTs were obtained within the context of this study. The SST trend and its anomalies between the years 1990 and 2021 were detected by applying Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS (STL) method to NOAA OISST V2 data. On the other hand, spatial SST distribution was detected with Landsat-8, Sentinel-3 and NOAA OISST V2 satellite data. SST results were verified with the in-situ data within the scope of accuracy assessment. The results showed that SST time-series data performed an increasing trend and had anomalies mostly during the spring months in the recent years.     

Analysis of the variability of temperature gradient in the ocean frontal zones based on satellite data

AVHRR MCSST data for the periods 1982–2000 (mean weekly data) were used to calculate mean gradient fields in the ocean for different periods of time. Three-month averaged sea surface temperature gradients (SSTG) and their mean seasonal variations have been studied for 25 points in the large-scale oceanic fronts zones. Major oceanic fronts in the Atlantic and Pacific have been identified and compared in literature. In the North Atlantic and Pacific, the areas under study were the North Polar Front and Subpolar Fronts. In the South Atlantic and Pacific we studied the region of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the fronts formed by this current, known as the South Polar Front, and the Subantarctic Front. SSTG were also calculated for El Niño (Southeast Pacific) and Benguela Current (Southeast Atlantic).     

Effect of the continental shelf in seasonal oceanographic conditions at the Northern edge of the Eastern Tropical Pacific

The continental shelf in front of Nayarit is located in the northern limit of the tropical Eastern Pacific, characterized by constituting a convergence zone of different masses of water, forming an area of significant hydrographic variability. Based on satellite remote sensing data and reanalysis between 2003 and 2019 of sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress, Ekman velocity, and geostrophic velocity, the contribution of the seasonal cycle to the variability of the study area were analyzed through climatological means, Hovmöhler diagrams, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The results show that in the zone in front of Matanchén Bay (21.5 °N) and the adjacent continental shelf, there is a core of warm surface water. The distribution of the SST is explained by the seasonal pattern of meridional/zonal variability in the thermal gradient, where the EOFs show the influence of the annual scale in both modes, with the only difference being that the first describes the meridional gradient as the dominant signal (66.2%), and the second shows the zonal behavior of the thermal gradient (16.6%). The summer weakening of the wind stress and Ekman speed is the product of the irregular shape of the coastline, the extension of the continental shelf, and the divergence of the North American monsoon around 21°N, whereas during the rest of the year an intensification of these parameters prevailed in front of Cabo Corrientes. On the other hand, the intense geostrophic flow in summer does not contribute to the increase in SST on the continental shelf because it diverges around 22.5°N. Likewise, during the winter, the formation of a cyclonic geostrophic gyre located inside the continental shelf, between the coast and the Marías Islands, stands out.     

Satellite-observed biological variability in the equatorial Pacific during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle

The event of 2009–2011 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides an opportunity to gain insight into the biological variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean for an entire ENSO cycle with satellite and in situ observations. Even though El Niño and La Niña in general led to respectively weakened and enhanced chlorophyll-a concentration and net primary production (NPP) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle, biological responses were highly disparate along the equator and attributed to different driving mechanisms. In the eastern equatorial Pacific east of 150°E, the El Niño-La Niña biological change was in general small except for the transition period even though sea surface temperature (SST) showed over ∼5 °C drop from El Niño to La Niña. In the central-eastern (170°W–140°W) equatorial Pacific, moderate change of biological activity is attributed to the changes of thermocline driven by the eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves and changes of zonal currents and undercurrents. Highest biological response in this ENSO cycle was located in the central (170°E–170°W) and central-western (150°E–170°E) equatorial Pacific with quadruple chlorophyll-a concentration and over ∼400 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹ increase of NPP from El Niño in 2009 to La Niña in 2010. However, spatial pattern of ENSO biological variability as represented with NPP is not exactly the same as chlorophyll-a variability. Wind-driving mixing of nutrients and eastward advection of the oligotrophic warm pool waters are attributed to this significant biological variability in this region.     

Detection of volcanic,CO2, and ENSO signals in surface air temperature

The Russian surface air temperature data set (Northern Hemisphere, gridded, monthly average, 1891–1981) is analyzed to separate signals from large volcanic eruptions, ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) events, and signals in conjunction with hemispheric temperature changes. Characteristic patterns of zonal average temperature as a function of month and latitude as well as monthly average maps are produced for each forcing. The largest response to volcanic forcing appears at a lag of 2 and 3 years following volcanic eruptions. The zonal average response shows cooling at all latitudes and months, except in the Arctic in summer. The largest cooling is in the high latitudes in the winter. This agrees very well with energy balance model calculations of the response pattern to large volcanic eruptions, and can be explained by sea ice/thermal inertia and, to a lesser extent, snow/albedo feedbacks. The spatial pattern shows large areas of cooling at all longitudes. In response to ENSO oscillations the largest response is synchronous or with the temperature lagging ENSO oscillations by 6 months. The zonal average response is virtually zero, but the spatial patterns show large variations of opposite sign at different longitudes. Patterns produced by weighting temperature anomalies with hemispheric mean temperature indicate patterns to be expected following a CO₂ warming.     

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

Anomalous increase of chlorophyll concentrations associated with earthquakes

Recent studies have shown land, ocean, atmosphere and ionospheric anomalies prior to earthquakes. The optical and microwave sensors onboard satellites are now capable of monitoring land, ocean, atmosphere and ionosphere which provide changes associated with natural hazards. In this paper, we have analyzed remote sensing data of the ocean coasts lying near the epicenters of recent four major earthquakes (Gujarat of January 26, 2001, Andaman of September 13, 2002, Algeria of May 21, 2002 and Bam, Iran earthquake of December 26, 2003), our detailed analysis shows increase of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration associated with these recent earthquakes. The increase of Chl-a concentration is due to the change in sea surface temperature (SST) associated with the changes in stress regime in the epicentral region which is responsible for modifying the in situ thermal structure of the water and enhancing the upwelling of nutrient-rich water. The increase of Chl-a concentration also shows one to one relation with the increase of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) which is found to increase significantly prior to the earthquake events. Due to cloud cover, it has not been possible to quantify the effect of the chlorophyll concentrations associated with the earthquake events for each successive day during an event. However, the limited data from the adjacent oceanic regions provide strong evidence of the increase in Chl-a concentration. The monitoring of chlorophyll concentrations with higher spatial and temporal resolutions may provide early information about impending coastal earthquakes.     

A comparison of seasonal variations of sea level in the southern Baltic Sea from altimetry and tide gauge data

In this paper, seasonal sea level variations have been determined at five locations in the Baltic Sea from satellite altimetry for the period 1993–2015. The results were compared to tide gauge water level data. Annual and semi-annual amplitudes have been investigated for both sea level anomalies and tide gauge water level. It was found that the two independent observations of sea level variations along the Polish coast are in good agreement both in terms of their annual and semi-annual amplitudes and their annual and semi-annual phases. The annual cycles in the sea level variations measured by altimetry and tide gauge reach maximum values at approximately the same month (November/December).Moreover, this article shows the differences between the annual and semi-annual amplitudes and phases in the sea level anomalies and water level data within the same time frame. The difference in the annual amplitudes between the satellite altimetry and the tide gauge results is between 0.33?cm and 1.53?cm. The maximum differences in the annual cycle of the sea level changes were found at the Swinoujscie station. The correlations between the original series and the calculated curves were determined, and the relationship between the amplitudes and the phases were investigated. The correlation between the annual variations observed from the two independent observation techniques is 0.92.To analyse the dynamics of the change in sea level, the linear trend was estimated from the satellite altimetry and tide gauge time series both in the original time series of the data and in the time series in which seasonal variations were removed. In addition, we calculated the estimated errors of regression and how many years’ worth of data are needed to obtain an accuracy of 0.1?mm per year. The estimated errors of regression showed that to get an accuracy of 0.1?mm per year, we need 100?years of data.     

Satellite observations of sea ice

An overview is presented of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice studies using data from the Nimbus-5 ESMR and the Nimbus-7 SMMR passive microwave radiometers. Four years (1973–1976) of ESMR data for the Antarctic Ocean define the characteristics of the seasonal cycle including regional contrasts and interannual variations. Major advances include the discovery of the Weddell polynya and the presence of substantial areas of open water in the Antarctic winter pack ice. Regional differences in sea ice extent on time-scales of about a month are shown to be associated with variations in surface-wind fields. In the Arctic, the computation of sea ice concentration is complicated by the presence of multiyear ice, but the amount of multiyear ice becomes an important measurable quantity with dual-polarized, multifrequency passive microwave sensors. Analysis of SMMR data demonstrates its advantage for studying the spatial and temporal variability of the Arctic ice cover. Large observed interannual variations in the distribution of the multiyear pack ice and the presence of significant divergent areas in the central Arctic during winter contrast markedly with the classical view of the Arctic pack ice.     

Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) system: Some early results

The Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) System has been developed as the next-generation ocean data assimilation system in Japan Meteorological Agency. A multivariate three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis scheme with vertical coupled temperature–salinity empirical orthogonal function modes is adopted. The MOVE system has two varieties, the global (MOVE-G) and North Pacific (MOVE-NP) systems. The equatorial Pacific and western North Pacific are analyzed with assimilation experiments using MOVE-G and -NP, respectively. In each system, the salinity and velocity fields are well reproduced, even in cases without salinity data. Changes in surface and subsurface zonal currents during the 1997/98 El Niño event are captured well, and their transports are reasonably consistent with in situ observations. For example, the eastward transport in the upper layer around the equator has 70 Sv in spring 1997 and weakens in spring 1998. With MOVE-NP, the Kuroshio transport has 25 Sv in the East China Sea, and 40 Sv crossing the ASUKA (Affiliated Surveys of the Kuroshio off Cape Ashizuri) line south of Japan. The variations in the Kuroshio transports crossing the ASUKA line agree well with observations. The Ryukyu Current System has a transport ranging from 6 Sv east of Taiwan to 17 Sv east of Amami. The Oyashio transport crossing the OICE (Oyashio Intensive observation line off Cape Erimo) line south of Hokkaido has 14 Sv southwestward (near shore) and 11 Sv northeastward (offshore). In the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition area east of Japan, the eastward transport has 41 Sv (32–36°N) and 12 Sv (36–39°N) crossing the 145°E line.     

The accuracy of SST retrievals from AATSR: An initial assessment through geophysical validation against in situ radiometers,buoys and other SST data sets

The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) was launched on Envisat in March 2002. The AATSR instrument is designed to retrieve precise and accurate global sea surface temperature (SST) that, combined with the large data set collected from its predecessors, ATSR and ATSR-2, will provide a long term record of SST data that is greater than 15 years. This record can be used for independent monitoring and detection of climate change. The AATSR validation programme has successfully completed its initial phase. The programme involves validation of the AATSR derived SST values using in situ radiometers, in situ buoys and global SST fields from other data sets. The results of the initial programme presented here will demonstrate that the AATSR instrument is currently close to meeting its scientific objectives of determining global SST to an accuracy of 0.3 K (one sigma). For night time data, the analysis gives a warm bias of between +0.04 K (0.28 K) for buoys to +0.06 K (0.20 K) for radiometers, with slightly higher errors observed for day time data, showing warm biases of between +0.02 (0.39 K) for buoys to +0.11 K (0.33 K) for radiometers. They show that the ATSR series of instruments continues to be the world leader in delivering accurate space-based observations of SST, which is a key climate parameter.     

Ozone reference models for CIRA

The ozone reference model which is to be incorporated in the COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA) is described and compared with other measurements of the Earth's ozone distribution. Ozone vertical structure models from approximately 25 to 90 km are provided combining data from five recent satellite experiments (Nimbus-7 LIMS, Nimbus-7 SBUV, AE-2 SAGE, Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) UVS, and SME IR). The results include the latest improvements in the SBUV algorithms using the most recent estimates of ozone cross sections. Also, the latest refinements in SME algorithms are incorporated. These algorithm improvements have improved agreement between the satellite data sets. Standard deviations are provided of monthly zonal means, and an estimate of the interannual variability is given. The models based on satallite data compare well with the Krueger and Minzner mid-latitude model incorporated into the U. S. Standard Atmosphere which is based on rocket and balloon measurements. Other comparisons are shown with Umkehr and more recent balloon data. Models are also provided of total columnar ozone reflecting recent improved estimates of ozone cross section. Information is provided on semiannual and annual variations. Other systematic variations including estimates of diurnal variations in the mesosphere will be included in the CIRA document.     

Different mechanisms controlling interannual phytoplankton variation in the South China Sea and the western North Pacific subtropical gyre: A satellite study

A time series of remotely-sensed chlorophyll a (chl a) in 1997–2010 was evaluated to determine mechanisms of phytoplankton variation in recent decade in the South China Sea (SCS) and the western North Pacific subtropical gyre (WNPSG). Satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) were used as proxies for vertical nutrient supply and atmospheric aerosol, respectively. Chl a in the WNPSG was not significantly correlated with SST (r = 0.18, p > 0.05), but was with AOT (r = 0.31, p < 0.05), indicating the chl a was influenced by atmospheric deposition. Chl a in the SCS was negatively correlated with SST (r = −0.60, p < 0.05) and was positively with AOT (r = 0.20, p < 0.05). The correlation between AOT and chl a in the SCS does not reflect a major contribution from atmospheric deposition to chl a; instead, the relationship resulted from concurrence of the peaks of AOT and wind speed, which drive water mixing and nutrient supply. Consequently, chl a in the SCS would be regulated primarily by the nutrient supply from deep waters. Because SST was controlled by the ENSO teleconnection in the SCS, the chl a was coupled with ENSO events. The present study demonstrated that interannual phytoplankton variation could be controlled by different factors even in neighboring oligotrophic regions.     

基于TechDemoSat-1卫星的GPS反射信号海面高度反演

针对星载GPS反射信号（GPS-R）海面测高的误差问题，基于星载GPS-R实测数据进行星载海面测高模型和误差修正模型的研究，并验证其有效性。利用TechDemoSat-1（TDS-1）数据，使用时延多普勒图（DDM）海面高度反演技术，着重分析了星载GPS-R海面高度反演中的各类误差，并建立了相应的误差模型。对星载GPS-R海面高度反演模型进行优化，采用DTU15全球平均海面模型、DTU全球海潮模型验证反演精度。结果证明:优化后反演模型得到的全球海面高度反演结果的平均绝对误差（MAD）为6.05 m，精度提高了约29%，有效提高了海面高度反演的精度。研究成果对于推广星载GNSS反射信号（GNSS-R）的海面测高应用具有一定的意义。      

Global structure,seasonal and interannual variability of the eastward propagating tides seen in the SABER/TIMED temperatures (2002–2007)

The present paper is focused on the global spatial (altitude and latitude) structure, seasonal and interannual variability of the most stable in amplitude and phase eastward propagating diurnal and semidiurnal tides with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 derived from the SABER/TIMED temperatures for full 6 years (January 2002–December 2007). The tidal results are obtained by an analysis method where the tides (migrating and nonmigrating) and the planetary waves (zonally travelling, zonally symmetric and stationary) are simultaneously extracted from the satellite data. It has been found that the structures of the eastward propagating diurnal tides with zonal wavenumbers 3 and 2 change from antisymmetric with respect to the equator below ∼85 km height, to more symmetric above ∼95 km. The seasonal behavior of the DE3 is dominated by annual variation with maximum in August–September reaching average (2002–2007) amplitude of ∼15 K, while that of the DE2 by semiannual variation with solstice maxima and with average amplitude of ∼8 K. These tides revealed some interannual variability with a period of quasi-2 years. The seasonal behavior of the eastward propagating semidiurnal tide with zonal wavenumber 2 in the southern hemisphere (SH) is dominated by annual variation with maximum in the austral summer (November–January) while that in the northern hemisphere (NH) by semiannual variation with equinoctial maxima. The SE2 maximizes near 115 km height and at latitude of ∼30° reaching an average amplitude of ∼6 K. The seasonal behavior of the eastward propagating semidiurnal tide with zonal wavenumber 3 in both hemispheres indicates a main maximum during June solstice and a secondary one during December solstice. The tide maximizes near 110–115 km height and at a latitude of ∼30° reaching an average amplitude of ∼4.8 K in the SH and ∼4 K in the NH. The tidal structures of the two eastward propagating semidiurnal tides are predominantly antisymmetric about the equator.     

海表温度对中法海洋卫星散射计测量的影响

卫星散射计通过测量海表粗糙度反演全球海面风场。对于Ku波段散射计,海表粗糙不仅和海面风场相关,还受海表温度的二阶效应调制。定量研究了海表温度对中法海洋卫星（CFOSAT）散射计（CSCAT）反演风速和后向散射测量的影响。结果表明,CSCAT两种极化方式测量的后向散射系数都会受到海表温度的影响,但是垂直极化中低入射角（θ <36°）测量的后向散射系数几乎不随温度变化。因此CSCAT的风速偏差也随海表温度的变化而变化,且随着入射角的增大和风速的减小,海表温度对风速偏差的影响程度增大。在数据分析的基础上提出了一种考虑海表温度影响机制的地球物理模式函数,为未来CFOSAT散射计风场反演的海温校正提供参考。     

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of chlorophyll-a bloom timing associated with physical forcing in the Gulf of Cádiz

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of the winter-spring bloom in the Gulf of Cádiz, eastern North Atlantic, has been investigated using chlorophyll-a remote sensing (CHL). These data have been obtained from the GlobColour project; the temporal coverage extends from September 1997 to December 2010. In this study we develop a generic quantitative approach for describing the temporal variability in the shape of the winter-spring bloom within a region. Variability in both the timing and magnitude of the bloom in the basin has been evaluated as a function of physical properties in the water column such as Mixed Layer Depth (MLD, GODAS model), sea surface temperature (SST, from AVHRR radiometers), photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR, from ocean color data) and euphotic depth (Z_eu, from ocean color data). The analysis indicated that the timing, size and duration of the phytoplankton bloom in this area are largely controlled by both meteorological and oceanographic conditions at different scales; this means that it is likely to vary widely from one year to another.     

Atmospheric correction of satellite altimetry observations and sea-level variability in the NE Atlantic

Satellite altimetry provides continuous and spatially regular measurements of the height of the sea surface. Sea level responds to density changes of the water, to mass changes, due to addition or reduction of water mass, and to changes in the atmosphere above it. The present study examines the influence of atmospheric effects on sea-level variability in the North-East Atlantic. The association between the height of the sea surface and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated by considering different sets of altimetry measurements for which the atmospheric effects have been handled differently. Altimetry data not corrected for atmospheric effects are strongly anti-correlated with the state of the NAO, reflecting the hydrostatic response of sea-level to the NAO pressure dipole. The application of an atmospheric correction to satellite altimetry observations in the NE Atlantic decreases variability of the height time series by more than 70% and reduces the amplitude of the seasonal cycle by ∼5 cm. Altimetry data for which atmospheric effects are removed via an inverse barometer correction show a non-negligible correlation with the NAO index at some locations suggesting further indirect non-hydrostatic influences of the state of the NAO on sea level variability.