PMHT: problems and some solutions

The probabilistic multihypothesis tracker (PMHT) is a target tracking algorithm of considerable theoretical elegance. In practice, its performance turns out to be at best similar to that of the probabilistic data association filter (PDAF); and since the implementation of the PDAF is less intense numerically the PMHT has been having a hard time finding acceptance. The PMHT's problems of nonadaptivity, narcissism, and over-hospitality to clutter are elicited in this work. The PMHT's main selling-point is its flexible and easily modifiable model, which we use to develop the "homothetic" PMHT; maneuver-based PMHTs, including those with separate and joint homothetic measurement models; a modified PMHT whose measurement/target association model is more similar to that of the PDAF; and PMHTs with eccentric and/or estimated measurement models. Ideally, "bottom line" would be a version of the PMHT with clear advantages over existing trackers. If the goal is of an accurate (in terms of mean square error (MSE)) track, then there are a number of versions for which this is available.     

一种改进的直方图概率多假设多目标跟踪方法

直方图概率多假设跟踪（H-PMHT）方法及其变形泊松分布直方图概率多假设跟踪（P-HPMHT）方法的一个主要缺点是其量测模型仅考虑了背景杂波而没有考虑传感器噪声,从而导致在低信噪比条件下检测概率较低。针对这一问题,提出了一种带传感器噪声模型的H-PMHT方法,通过将传感器噪声引入量测模型,从而明显提高了对低信噪比目标的跟踪检测能力。该方法的计算量与目标数保持线性关系,仍然适用于目标数目较多的情况。仿真实验表明：该方法在误跟踪比率为1‰,信噪比为6 dB时,检测比率可提升近20%,信噪比为3 dB时,可提升近10%。     

Integrated track maintenance for the PMHT via the hysteresis model

Unlike other tracking algorithms the probabilistic multi-hypothesis tracker (PMHT) assumes that the true source of each measurement is an independent realisation of a random process. Given knowledge of the prior probability of this assignment variable, data association is performed independently for each measurement. When the assignment prior is unknown, it can be estimated provided that it is either time independent, or fixed over the batch. This paper presents a new extension of the PMHT, which incorporates a randomly evolving Bayesian hyperparameter for the assignment process. This extension is referred to as the PMHT with hysteresis. The state of the hyperparameter reflects each model's contribution to the mixture, and thus can be used to quantify the significance of mixture components. The paper demonstrates how this can be used as a method for automated track maintenance in clutter. The performance benefit gained over the standard PMHT is demonstrated using simulations and real sensor data     

TBCC进气道涡轮通道扩张段设计及涡轮模态特性

采用拓展中心线、不同的流通截面面积变化规律和倒圆半径变化规律对内并联型TBCC（turbine based combined cycle engine）进气道涡轮通道扩张段进行了设计.通过数值模拟的手段,对涡轮通道扩张段设计参数的影响规律和涡轮模态下涡轮通道扩张段的气动特性进行了研究,并利用高速风洞试验结果对数值模拟方法进行了验证.研究结果表明:中心线控制点纵坐标在1.50~2.25、涡轮通道扩张段出口等直段长度与出口直径比值在0.3~0.7的范围内取值时,涡轮通道扩张段可获得较高的出口总压恢复系数和较小的出口总压畸变指数;采用前急后缓的流通截面面积和倒圆半径变化规律能使涡轮通道扩张段获得较小的出口总压畸变指数;随着飞行马赫数的增加,进气道和涡轮通道扩张段的流量系数先不断减小,在飞行马赫数为0.9附近达到最小,之后又逐渐增加,涡轮通道扩张段出口总压恢复系数不断升高,在飞行马赫数为0.7附近达到最大,之后又逐渐降低;涡轮模态下,涡轮通道扩张段出口总压畸变指数均小于0.5,能很好地满足涡轮发动机对进口流场的要求.      

Multiple model PMHT and its application to the benchmark radar tracking problem

The probabilistic multiple hypothesis tracker (PMHT) uses the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to solve the measurement-origin uncertainty problem. Here, we explore some of its variants for maneuvering targets and in particular discuss the multiple model PMHT. We apply this PMHT to the six "typical" tracking scenarios given in the second benchmark problem from W. D. Blair and G. A. Watson (1998). The manner in which the PMHT is used to track the targets and to manage radar allocation is discussed, and the results compared with those of the interacting multiple model probabilistic data association filter (IMM/PDAF) and IMM/MHT (multiple hypothesis tracker). The PMHT works well: its performance lies between those of the IMM/PDAF and IMM/MHT both in terms of tracking performance and computational load.     

空气涡轮火箭组合发动机共同工作研究

根据空气涡轮火箭组合发动机工作原理,明确了发动机共同工作条件,建立了发动机共同工作方程,得到了发动机共同工作线,并给出了影响空气涡轮火箭组合发动机共同工作线位置的两个因素:尾喷管喉部面积和涡轮前燃气总温。基于共同工作方程,分析了两因素对发动机共同工作线的影响规律。结果表明:在同一转速线上,随着尾喷管喉部面积或涡轮前燃气总温增大,发动机空气质量流量增大,压气机增压比降低,共同工作线整体向右下方移动;尾喷管喉部面积和涡轮前燃气总温增大或减小使空气涡轮火箭组合发动机共同工作线移动的方向是相同的,但尾喷管喉部面积变化对共同工作线位置移动的影响程度大于涡轮前燃气总温。      

发动机总体与尾喷管三维并行设计研究

为解决某型涡扇发动机尾喷管改型中的流量匹配问题,利用iSIGHT软件平台集成零维发动机性能计算程序和三维混合室和尾喷管的流场计算程序,运用数值缩放(Zooming)技术,实现了混合室和尾喷管型面以及进出口面积的自动修正,解决了尾喷管和发动机流量匹配的问题,并准确地反映了混合室和尾喷管三维流动效应对流量系数、推力系数以及发动机工作点的影响.该方法可为实现涡扇发动机其它部件的Zooming技术提供有意义的参考.      

预冷空气涡轮火箭发动机氦循环系统的参数特性

针对预冷空气涡轮火箭发动机(PATR)方案,建立氦循环系统数学模型,模型考虑组件结构特征、几何尺寸、工质物性等主要因素。数值计算表明:PATR的推力和比冲性能较优,模型可描述发动机氦循环热力过程,其中发动机余气系数是影响发动机推力、比冲的关键参数。提高氦循环系统最高设计压力和降低空气预冷器氦进口温度可有效降低压力损失和氦压气机功率,最高压力每增大1MPa,系统平均压力损失下降1.1%,氦压气机输入功率下降3.2%;空气预冷器氦进口温度每升高1K,系统平均压力损失上升0.086%,氦压气机输入功率升高2.3%。     

进口导叶可调的涡轴发动机性能寻优控制模式

根据变比热容原理建立了进口导叶可调的涡轴发动机部件级全包线数学模型;仿真研究了涡轴发动机的最大功率、最低油耗、最低涡轮前温度控制模式.仿真结果表明:建立的涡轴发动机数学模型具有较高的准确度;采用最大功率控制模式在整个包线范围内显著提高了涡轴发动机的功率;采用最低油耗控制模式保证功率基本不变,而耗油率明显降低;采用最低涡轮前温度控制模式,能够保证功率基本不变,动力涡轮前温度显著降低.      

涡扇发动机早期退化性能的线性变参数估计

针对涡扇发动机线性变参数(Linear parameter varying,LPV)模型,给出了一种新的早期退化航空发动机部件性能LPV滤波器设计方法.该方法采用仿射依赖于参数的二次Lyapunov函数,在仿射二次稳定性的基础上,引入多凸性引理将滤波器求解问题转化为线性矩阵不等式(Linear matrix inequalities,LMI)约束下的凸优化问题,避免了求解参数化线性矩阵不等式(Parameterized linear matrix inequalities,PLMI)约束下的优化问题.针对某型早期退化涡扇发动机的仿真表明,该方法能以较高精度估计性能退化参数,且鲁棒性强,增益调度简单,具有一定的工程意义.      

Research on influence of typical microstructure characteristics of Ni base single crystal on creep rupture and deformation analysis of turbo blade

Considering the influence of typical microstructure characteristics on creep performance,a series of UM-F single crystal alloys which had similar element components but different microstructures were used to analyze the relationship between creep life and microstructure characteristics of Ni base single crystal.Three main factors were proposed:misfit,volume fraction of precipitate and maximum matrix channel width.The Microstate parameter Ymicro was established to estimate the deformation state of the materials.The linear relationship between the initial value of microstate parameter Y0 and creep life under a certain temperature/load was affirmed.By analyzing the high temperature region of turbo blade using the material parameters of DD 3,the creep deformation and the life prediction of the critical points of blade were obtained and the result closed to the test.     

The Formation Of The First Stars In The Universe

In this review, I survey our current understanding of how the very first stars in the universe formed, with a focus on three main areas of interest: the formation of the first protogalaxies and the cooling of gas within them, the nature and extent of fragmentation within the cool gas, and the physics – in particular the interplay between protostellar accretion and protostellar feedback – that serves to determine the final stellar mass. In each of these areas, I have attempted to show how our thinking has developed over recent years, aided in large part by the increasing ease with which we can now perform detailed numerical simulations of primordial star formation. I have also tried to indicate the areas where our understanding remains incomplete, and to identify some of the most important unsolved problems.     

美国西南航适航指令事件始末

在2007年3月,美国西南航空公司(SWA)发现自己所运营的飞机不符合适航指令(AD)后将这一问题通过自愿报告系统(VDRP)向其审定管理叻公室(CMO)进行汇报,并采取补救措施.与此同时,SWA有46架与AD不符的波音737飞机又继续运营了9天.SWA的主管称其误以为CMO准许其继续运营.     

树上的小王子

每个人心里都长着一棵树,上面住着只属于自己的小王子。其实没有预料到,这会是一本这么有意思的小书。它是一个跟爱情有关的童话,一个治愈系的成长故事,更是一次照见内心童真自我的发现之旅。故事里最有趣的,当然还是那个帮人做梦的鹿头上。他能帮人重温旧日的好时光,再见念念不忘的那个人,或是得到一直想要却未必能在现实里得到的东西……听起来,他真的很像小王子,来自另一个奇幻美妙的世界。那里只有单纯与快乐,而他柔软干净,能为这个纷乱世界的人带来温暖与慰藉。而且,即使只是帮人做一场梦,     

阅尽千番赏更真

当外滩三号渐渐走近了人们的生活,当那种独特的设计和经营模式成为了一种时尚,李景汉意识到,是时候走向自己的下一站了。外滩三号迅速掀起时尚潮流的经历,让他意识到了选址对艺术推广的重要性,要让尽可能多的人加入艺术欣赏的行列,要感染到尽可能多的人,就一定要把艺术空间建在大都市的中心。如果说外滩是上海的中     

内套筒对预紧力齿连接接头预紧力的影响

为了研究内套筒材料性能与几何尺寸等参数对预紧力影响规律,本文首先通过实验对不同内套筒材料与壁厚对预紧力的影响规律进行研究。然后通过有限元软件ANSYS建立了接头预紧力施加的数值模型,模拟结果与实验实测值吻合较好,并通过有限元对实验现象进行了分析。结果表明：相同挤压量下,接头壁厚越高,所产生预紧力越高;对于塑性材料的内套筒接头,当外部挤压量超过一定值时,塑性材料完全进入塑性,变形增加,但应力值不再显著增长,预紧力趋于稳定;而对于弹性材料的内套筒接头,弹性材料应力一直随着应变线性增长,因此预紧力随着挤压量增加不断增加。     

在北极圈观赏极光

<正>极光的形状各种各样,有的呈条纹样,有的是无条纹的非线状,颜色根据太阳风中的微粒所碰撞的气体和高度决定,光亮足的高峰期每次出现10分钟左右。形态各异变幻莫测的极光极其神秘,炫动的舞姿令人永生难忘。位于北极圈内的瑞典基律纳(Kiruna)因其独特的地理环境成为世界上最佳的极光观测点之一。从瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩乘飞机往北飞行1个半小时,就进入了北极圈,亦到了瑞典最北部的机场——基律纳机场。     

天气对航班飞行的影响

在飞机起飞、降落和空中飞行的各个阶段都会受到气象条件的影响,风、气温、气压都是影响飞行的重要气象要素地面风会直接影响飞机的操纵,高空风会影响飞机在航线上的飞行速度和加油量气温高低,可改变发动机的推力、影响空速表、起落滑跑距离等等气温高于标准大气温度时,会增加飞机起飞滑跑距离和上升爬高时间,降低飞机载重量气压会影响飞机的飞行高度由于各地气压经常变化,往往造成气压高度表指示的误差。此外,雷暴、低云、低能见度、低空风切变、大气湍流、空中急流、颠簸、结冰等天气现象都直接威胁飞行安全。     

天气对航班飞行的影响

飞机是一种现代化的交通运输工具,它给人们旅行带来很大的方便,人们都希望所乘坐的民航班机能够安全、舒适、正点地抵达目的地。但您有时也会遇到因飞机返航、备降或暂缓起飞而使航班延误的情况。可您是否知道,尽管现在飞机性能不断提高,地面保障设备不断改善,但是天气因素仍然对飞行安全、正点和经济效益有着严重的影响。