A Possible Transfer Mechanism for the 11-Year Solar Cycle to the Lower Stratosphere

Observational evidence of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) modulation of stratosphere temperatures and winds from the ERA-40 dataset is reviewed, with emphasis on the Northern winter hemisphere. A frequency modulation of sudden warming events is noted, with warmings occurring earlier in solar minimum periods than in solar maximum periods. The observed interaction between the influence of the SC and the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) on the frequency of sudden warmings is noted as a possible clue for understanding their mechanism of influence. A possible transfer route for the 11-year solar cycle from the equatorial stratopause region to the lowest part of the stratosphere is proposed, via an influence on sudden warming events and the associated induced meridional circulation. SC and QBO composites of zonal wind anomalies show anomalous wind distributions in the subtropical upper stratosphere in early winter. Mechanistic model experiments are reviewed that demonstrate a sensitivity of sudden warmings to small wind anomalies in this region. Various diagnostics from these experiments are shown, including EP fluxes and their divergence and also the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex, in order to understand the mechanism of the influence. Some recent GCM experiments to investigate the SC/QBO interaction are also described. They simulate reasonably well the observed SC/QBO interaction of sudden warming events and appear to support the hypothesis that tropical/subtropical upper stratospheric wind anomalies are an important influence on the timing of sudden warmings.     

The Evolution of the Anomalous Cosmic Ray Oxygen Spectra From 1995 to 1998: Ulysses Observations

Moraal and Steenberg (1999), showed that the peak energy in the anomalous cosmic ray spectra is independent of the radial distance up to a few AU away from the termination shock but dependent on the solar wind speed, the radius of the termination shock and the scattering strength. In this paper we will discuss the variation of the cosmic ray oxygen energy spectrum as measured by the Ulysses EPAC and the COSPIN/LET on board Ulysses. We found that the peak energy decreased from ∼5 MeV nucl⁻¹, when Ulysses was at high northern heliographic latitudes embedded in the fast solar wind to ∼3.5 MeV n⁻¹, in the streamer belt. The shift towards lower energy might also be caused by changing modulation although Voyager measurements indicate no variation of the ACR Oxygen spectrum at ∼60 AU. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modulation Near Solar Maximum at High Solar Latitudes Observations From the Ulysses Cospin High Energy Telescope

The three-dimensional structure of the solar maximum modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere can be studied for the first time by comparing observations from Ulysses at high solar latitudes to those from in-ecliptic spacecraft, such as IMP-8. Observations through mid-2000 show that changes in modulation remain well correlated at Earth and Ulysses up to latitudes of ∼60° south. The observed changes seem to be best correlated with changes in the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet. The spectral index of the proton spectra at energies <100 MeV in the ecliptic and at high latitudes remain roughly consistent with the T ⁺¹ spectrum expected from modulation models, while the spectral index of the helium spectrum at both locations has changed smoothly from the flat or even negative index spectra characteristic of anomalous component fluxes toward the T ⁺¹ galactic spectrum with increasing modulation. Intensities near the equator and at high latitude remain nearly equal, and latitudinal gradients for nucleonic cosmic rays thus remain small (<1% deg⁻¹) at solar maximum. In the most recent data fluxes of protons and helium with energies less than ∼100 MeV nucl⁻¹ measured by Ulysses are smaller than those measured at IMP-8, suggesting that the gradients may have switched to become negative toward the poles even before a clear reversal of polarity for the solar magnetic dipole has been completed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Variation and Stratospheric Response

We have shown in several recent publications that it is necessary to group the meteorological data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) throughout the year, in order to find a clear signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle (SSC). This work is summarized here. It is the purpose of this paper (1) to update earlier results of the solar cycle – QBO relationship for the northern winter, (2) to stress the interaction between the hemispheres and (3) to summarize the influence of the QBO on the solar variability signal, as well as the influence of the solar variability signal on the QBO throughout the year. For this, the constructed annual mean of the solar cycle – QBO relationship is introduced.     

Observed Long-Term Variations of Solar Irradiance at the Earth’s Surface

The variation of global radiation (sum of direct solar and diffuse sky radiation) at the Earth’s surface is examined based on pyranometer measurements at about 400~sites. The period of the study covers in general the last 50 years. For Europe the study is extended to the beginning of observations in the 1920s and 1930s. Global radiation generally increased in Europe from the 1920s to the 1950s. After the late 1950s and early 1960s global radiation began to decrease in most areas of the world at a mean rate of 0.7 Wm⁻²a⁻¹ until 1980s, thereafter 75%; of the stations showed a recovery at a mean rate of 0.7 Wm⁻²a⁻¹. All stations in the Polar region, which are far from aerosol sources, also show this pattern of change. At the remaining 25% of the stations the decrease has continued to present. These regions are a part of China, most of India, and Central Africa. Both during the declining and recovering phases global radiation observed under the cloudless condition also followed the same tendency, indicating the simultaneous and parallel changes of aerosol and cloud conditions. Long-term observations of total zenith transmittance of the atmosphere indicate a decrease in transmittance to the mid 1980s and an increase after this period. Since the brighter and darker periods correspond to relatively warmer and colder periods, the present study offers the possibility to quantitatively evaluate the mutual relationships between the solar irradiance, atmospheric transmittance, cloud conditions and air temperature.     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

Observations of the Acceleration of Polar Solar Wind Near Solar Maximum

In a previous paper (Tappin et al., 1999) we used cross-correlation analysis of high-cadence observations with the LASCO coronagraphs to trace the acceleration of the solar wind at low latitudes. In this paper we present a similar analysis carried out over the North pole of the Sun. The observations which were made in March 2000 with the C3 coronagraph show low bulk flow speeds (comparable to or lower than those seen at the equator in early 1998). We observe the acceleration continuing to the edge of the C3 field of view at about 30 R _⊙. We also observe, as at low latitude, a high-speed tail but now reaching out well beyond 2000 km s⁻¹. We do not see a clear signature of a fast polar bulk flow. We therefore conclude that at this phase of the solar cycle, any fast bulk flow occupies only a small part of the line of sight and is therefore overwhelmed by the denser slow solar wind in these observations. We also show that the fast component is consistent with observed solar wind speeds at 1 AU. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Alfvén waves in the context of solar-like star formation: accretion columns and disks

In this work we examine the damping of Alfvén waves as a source of plasma heating in disks and magnetic funnels of young solar like stars, the T Tauri stars. We apply four different damping mechanisms in this study: viscous-resistive, collisional, nonlinear and turbulent, exploring a wide range of wave frequencies, from 10⁻⁵Ω_i to 10⁻¹Ω_i (where Ω_i is the ion-cyclotron frequency). The results show that Alfvénic heating can increase the ionization rate of accretion disks and elevate the temperature of magnetic funnels of T Tauri stars opening possibilities to explain some observational features of these objects. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Interstellar Matter and the Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere

The interstellar cloud surrounding the solar system regulates the galactic environment of the Sun, and determines the boundary conditions of the heliosphere. Both the Sun and interstellar clouds move through space, so these boundary conditions change with time. Data and theoretical models now support densities in the cloud surrounding the solar system of n(H0)=0.22±0.06 cm−3, and n(e−)∼0.1 cm−3, with larger values allowed for n(H0) by radiative transfer considerations. Ulysses and Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer satellite He0 data yield a cloud temperature of 6400 K. Nearby interstellar gas appears to be structured and inhomogeneous. The interstellar gas in the Local Fluff cloud complex exhibits elemental abundance patterns in which refractory elements are enhanced over the depleted abundances found in cold disk gas. Within a few parsecs of the Sun, inconclusive evidence for factors of 2–5 variation in Mg+ and Fe+ gas phase abundances is found, providing evidence for variable grain destruction. In principle, photoionization calculations for the surrounding cloud can be compared with elemental abundances found in the pickup ion and anomalous cosmic-ray populations to model cloud properties, including ionization, reference abundances, and radiation field. Observations of the hydrogen pile up at the nose of the heliosphere are consistent with a barely subsonic motion of the heliosphere with respect to the surrounding interstellar cloud. Uncertainties on the velocity vector of the cloud that surrounds the solar system indicate that it is uncertain as to whether the Sun and α Cen are or are not immersed in the same interstellar cloud. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The impact of solar forcing on the variability in a coupled climate model

The impact of variations in solar irradiance on the variability of climate is still a topic of debate. Herein we assess the response of a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) of intermediate complexity to an estimate of the solar variability since 1700 and to a series of idealized sinusoidal solar forcings. On the continental to global scale and averaged over periods longer than 30 years, the solar-induced variability dominates internal variability in the annual global mean surface air temperature. Locally and on the regional scale, the internal variability dominates. The dominant patterns of natural variability and explained variance are not affected by a variable solar forcing, the spectra however are sensitive. The control run shows a preferred decadal time scale of 18 year in a sea surface temperature mode associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The preferred decadal time scale disappears for a variable solar forcing. This is caused by small changes in oceanic circulation resulting in subsurface oceanic modes with modified structure and time scale.     

Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25–45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth’s surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possible.     

The Solar System d/h Ratio: Observations and Theories

The measured D/H ratios in interstellar environments and in the solar system are reviewed. The two extreme D/H ratios in solar system water - (720±120)×10⁻⁶ in clay minerals and (88±11)×10⁻⁶ in chondrules, both from LL3 chondritic meteorites - are interpreted as the result of a progressive isotopic exchange in the solar nebula between deuterium-rich interstellar water and protosolar H₂. According to a turbulent model describing the evolution of the nebula (Drouart et al., 1999), water in the solar system cannot be a product of thermal (neutral) reactions occurring in the solar nebula. Taking 720×10⁻⁶ as a face value for the isotopic composition of the interstellar water that predates the formation of the solar nebula, numerical simulations show that the water D/H ratio decreases via an isotopic exchange with H₂. During the course of this process, a D/H gradient was established in the nebula. This gradient was smoothed with time and the isotopic homogenization of the solar nebula was completed in 10⁶ years, reaching a D/H ratio of 88×10⁻⁶. In this model, cometary water should have also suffered a partial isotopic re-equilibration with H₂. The isotopic heterogeneity observed in chondrites result from the turbulent mixing of grains, condensed at different epochs and locations in the solar nebula. Recent isotopic determinations of water ice in cold interstellar clouds are in agreement with these chondritic data and their interpretation (Texeira et al., 1999). This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

三角翼涡破裂非定常特性实验研究

本文依据染色液流动显示结果,通过子波和频谱分析,探讨了70°三角翼前缘涡涡核轴向速度的变化规律及其子波特性、涡破裂位置的非定常特性,指出涡破裂点位置的变化属于低频高幅振荡,这主要是左右涡之间的相互作用造成的,当两个涡的时间平均涡破裂点位置彼此靠得更近时,相应的振荡就更大一些,此外本实验得到涡破裂位置振荡的折合频率在St=0.2以内.     

Interstellar Dust in the Solar System

The Ulysses spacecraft has been orbiting the Sun on a highly inclined ellipse almost perpendicular to the ecliptic plane (inclination 79°, perihelion distance 1.3 AU, aphelion distance 5.4 AU) since it encountered Jupiter in 1992. The in situ dust detector on board continuously measured interstellar dust grains with masses up to 10⁻¹³ kg, penetrating deep into the solar system. The flow direction is close to the mean apex of the Sun’s motion through the solar system and the grains act as tracers of the physical conditions in the local interstellar cloud (LIC). While Ulysses monitored the interstellar dust stream at high ecliptic latitudes between 3 and 5 AU, interstellar impactors were also measured with the in situ dust detectors on board Cassini, Galileo and Helios, covering a heliocentric distance range between 0.3 and 3 AU in the ecliptic plane. The interstellar dust stream in the inner solar system is altered by the solar radiation pressure force, gravitational focussing and interaction of charged grains with the time varying interplanetary magnetic field. We review the results from in situ interstellar dust measurements in the solar system and present Ulysses’ latest interstellar dust data. These data indicate a 30° shift in the impact direction of interstellar grains w.r.t. the interstellar helium flow direction, the reason of which is presently unknown.     

The Magnetometer Instrument on MESSENGER

The Magnetometer (MAG) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission is a low-noise, tri-axial, fluxgate instrument with its sensor mounted on a 3.6-m-long boom. The boom was deployed on March 8, 2005. The primary MAG science objectives are to determine the structure of Mercury’s intrinsic magnetic field and infer its origin. Mariner 10 observations indicate a planetary moment in the range 170 to 350 nT R _M³ (where R _M is Mercury’s mean radius). The uncertainties in the dipole moment are associated with the Mariner 10 trajectory and variability of the measured field. By orbiting Mercury, MESSENGER will significantly improve the determination of dipole and higher-order moments. The latter are essential to understanding the thermal history of the planet. MAG has a coarse range, ±51,300 nT full scale (1.6-nT resolution), for pre-flight testing, and a fine range, ±1,530 nT full scale (0.047-nT resolution), for Mercury operation. A magnetic cleanliness program was followed to minimize variable and static spacecraft-generated fields at the sensor. Observations during and after boom deployment indicate that the fixed residual field is less than a few nT at the location of the sensor, and initial observations indicate that the variable field is below 0.05 nT at least above about 3 Hz. Analog signals from the three axes are low-pass filtered (10-Hz cutoff) and sampled simultaneously by three 20-bit analog-to-digital converters every 50 ms. To accommodate variable telemetry rates, MAG provides 11 output rates from 0.01 s⁻¹ to 20 s⁻¹. Continuous measurement of fluctuations is provided with a digital 1–10 Hz bandpass filter. This fluctuation level is used to trigger high-time-resolution sampling in eight-minute segments to record events of interest when continuous high-rate sampling is not possible. The MAG instrument will provide accurate characterization of the intrinsic planetary field, magnetospheric structure, and dynamics of Mercury’s solar wind interaction.     

The multifuid solar wind termination shock and its influence on the threedimensional plasma structure upstream and downstream

The solar wind termination shock is described as a multi-fluid phenomenon taking into account the magnetohydrodynamic self-interaction of a multispecies plasma consisting of solar wind ions, pick-up ions and shock-generated anomalous cosmic ray particles. The spatial diffusion of these high energy particles relative to the resulting, pressure-modified solar wind flow structure is described by a coupled system of differential equations describing mass-, momentum-, and energy-flow continuities for all plasma components. The energy loss due to escape of energetic particles (MeV) from the precursor into the inner heliosphere is taken into account. We determine the integrated properties of the anomalous cosmic ray gas and the low-energy solar wind. Also the variation of the compression ratio of the shock structure is quantitatively determined and is related to the pick-up ion energization efficiency and to the mean energy of the downstream anomalous cosmic ray particles. The variation of the resulting shock structure and of the solar wind sheath plasma extent beyond the shock is discussed with respect to its consequences for the LISM neutral gas filtration and the threedimensional shape of the heliosphere.     

The Influence of Tilt Angle and Magnetic Field Variations on Cosmic ray Modulation

The maximum inclination of the heliospheric current sheet (the tilt angle) and the magnitude B of the heliospheric magnetic field are often used to characterize cosmic ray (CR) modulation. The relevance of B is likely to be the coupling of the interplanetary diffusion coefficients K to the field magnitude in a relation K∝B ⁻ⁿ. In this paper we study the coupled influence of tilt angle and magnetic field variations on the modulation of cosmic rays at neutron monitor energies for the 1974 mini-cycle and for the onsets of solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. It is suggested that for A>0 polarity epochs, the sensitivity of the CR response to variations in B is partly controlled by the size of the tilt angle, α. The onsets of cycles 21 and 23 exhibit differences, related to phase differences in these parameters. A simple model is used to predict the CR response to variations in B. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmic-Ray Modulation in the Heliosphere A Phenomenological Study

The heliospheric cosmic-ray network–Pioneer 10/11, Voyager 1/2, Ulysses and IMP 8 have provided detailed observations of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays over a period of time that now exceeds 25 years and extends to heliocentric distances beyond 65 AU. These data, when compared over consecutive 11 year solar cycles, clearly establishes the existence of a 22-year cosmic ray modulation cycle that is dominated by the 11-year solar activity cycle but is strongly influenced by gradient and curvature drifts in association with the tilt of the heliospheric neutral current sheet as well as the mediation of the enhanced magnetic turbulence above the solar poles. Over successive solar minima these effects manifest themselves in the remarkable differences in the energetic particle time histories, in the magnitude and sign of the radial and latitudinal intensity gradients and in the changes in the energy spectra of anomalous cosmic rays as a function of heliocentric distance.From solar minimum to solar maximum the long term modulation is principally a combination of two solar related phenomena, the cumulative effect of long-lived global merged interaction regions (GMIRs) and gradient and curvature drifts in the interplanetary magnetic field. For the periods when positive ions flow in over the solar poles and out along the heliospheric current sheet, the modulation of ions is dominated by GMIRs. When this flow pattern is reversed it is found that drifts are an important but not dominant factor for cosmic ray modulation with the current sheet related drift effects decreasing with increasing rigidity R, heliolatitude and heliocentric distance. Over a single solar cycle these conclusions are confirmed at 1 AU by comparing the relative modulation of cosmic-ray helium nuclei and electrons.     

Ulysses' Second Orbit: Remarkably Different Solar Wind

By the time of the 34th ESLAB symposium, dedicated to the memory of John Simpson, Ulysses had nearly reached its peak southerly latitude in its second polar orbit. The global solar wind structure observed thus far in Ulysses' second orbit is remarkably different from that observed over its first orbit. In particular, Ulysses observed highly irregular solar wind with less periodic stream interaction regions, much more frequent coronal mass ejections, and only a single, short interval of fast solar wind. Ulysses also observed the slowest solar wind seen thus far in its ten-year journey (∼270 km s⁻¹). The complicated solar wind structure undoubtedly arises from the more complex coronal structure found around solar activity maximum, when the large polar coronal holes have disappeared and coronal streamers, small-scale coronal holes, and frequent CMEs are found at all heliolatitudes. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Energetic Hydrogen and Oxygen Atoms Observed on the Nightside of Mars

We present measurements of energetic hydrogen and oxygen atoms (ENAs) on the nightside of Mars detected by the neutral particle detector (NPD) of ASPERA-3 on Mars Express. We focus on the observations for which the field-of-view of NPD was directed at the nightside of Mars or at the region around the limb, thus monitoring the flow of ENAs towards the nightside of the planet. We derive energy spectra and total fluxes, and have compiled maps of hydrogen ENA outflow. The hydrogen ENA intensities reach 10⁵ cm⁻² sr⁻¹ s⁻¹, but no oxygen ENA signals above the detection threshold of 10⁴ cm⁻² sr⁻¹ s⁻¹ are observed. These intensities are considerably lower than most theoretical predictions. We explain the discrepancy as due to an overestimation of the charge-exchange processes in the models for which too high an exospheric density was assumed. Recent UV limb emission measurements (Galli et al., this issue) point to a hydrogen exobase density of 10¹⁰ m⁻³ and a very hot hydrogen component, whereas the models were based on a hydrogen exobase density of 10¹² m⁻³ and a temperature of 200 K predicted by Krasnopolsky and Gladstone (1996). Finally, we estimate the global atmospheric loss rate of hydrogen and oxygen due to the production of ENAs.