航天器结构产品制造成熟度等级评价方法及应用

针对航天器结构产品制造成熟度等级评价方法进行了研究,根据航天器结构产品制造成熟度等级与评价指标,构建了相应的模型,提出了航天器结构产品制造成熟度模糊综合评判方法,并面向航天器结构板产品进行了应用验证。结果表明:该方法对现有结构板的生产现状进行成熟度评价的结果与研制现状基本相符,可以逐步推广到其它航天器结构产品制造成熟度评价过程,为提高航天器质量管控水平、降低研制风险提供借鉴。     

基于成熟度评价的航天器跨领域成熟产品集成管理模式

针对低成本卫星市场的需求,综合考虑功能、性能、价格和进度等约束条件,提出了基于成熟度评价的"低成本、短周期、全可靠"航天器集成研制管理模式。该管理模式应用成熟度评价方法指导航天器产品的跨领域、跨平台、跨等级选用,以较低投入、较快进度、全系统可靠为目标实现航天器系统的集成与运行。管理模式已成功应用于实践十号卫星的研制管理过程,有效降低了研制经费,缩短了研制周期,且卫星任务获得了圆满成功,可为低成本航天器的研制提供参考。     

技术成熟度评价在航天器地面环境试验中的应用

应国防武器装备采办中对技术状态控制、风险控制的需求,技术成熟度评价理论已在各主要航天国家得到广泛应用。通过分析美国和中国技术成熟度等级标准,提出了适用于航天器地面环境试验技术特点的8级技术成熟度等级标准和应用建议,以期为航天器地面环境试验技术状态管理提供一个行之有效的工具。     

基于模糊评价方法的航天器总装过程产品安全性评估模型研究

航天器在总装阶段发生的质量安全问题将会对航天器研制质量、进度、成本产生重大的影响。为提高航天器产品总装的安全风险控制能力,必须建立总装过程风险识别和安全防护的工程方法,对总装过程重要环节的安全性进行正确评价。通过运用模糊综合评价法与层次分析法构建航天器总装安全性评估模型,在专家打分的基础上,借助多级模糊综合判断和直接打分相接合的方法,分析确定各评价指标的权重,从而计算出关键活动的风险值。     

航天器研制项目管理成熟度

首先指出现代项目管理与传统的系统工程管理的不同特点;其次,将现代项目管理分解为技术状态、进度、质量、费用、可靠性与安全性、人力资源、物资采购、软件、文件、信息沟通、风险、集成和范围13项要素管理,提出了项目管理成熟度的定义、分级和举例,给出了项目管理成熟度的三维模型和评估公式;最后说明项目管理成熟度与企业管理成熟度之间的关系.     

航天器项目研制重要风险源识别及控制措施

针对航天器项目在研制过程中,需要把握的管理方面和技术方面的风险特性,按照项目研制阶段,对存在的重要风险源进行了分析和识别。提出了针对性的控制措施,对相关风险进行控制,以便保证航天器研制任务的顺利完成。     

空间环境模拟试验设备研制项目进度管理研究

文章对空间环境模拟试验设备研制过程中的进度管理进行研究,结合实际工程经验,对工作分解结构、里程碑计划管理及网络计划技术等项目管理方法在空间环境模拟试验设备研制进度管理中的应用作了初步探讨,介绍了项目管理方法在的进度管理上的具体应用。     

环境减灾二号A/B卫星风险管理实践

针对环境减灾二号A/B卫星项目载荷种类多、技术新、研制难度大等特点,分析了项目风险管理的难点,在以往航天器项目风险管理规范、经验的基础上,采用重要风险源识别方法,研究了相关高风险项目的成因,制定相应的管控措施,将技术风险、质量风险、进度风险的管理有机结合,把风险控制到了可接受程度,确保了项目的顺利实施,可为其他航天器项目风险管理提供参考。     

航天器技术成熟度评价方法研究

针对GJB 7688和GJB 7689直接用于航天器技术成熟度评价面临的主要问题开展研究,结合航天器的技术成熟过程和特点,论述航天器设备类和非设备类技术成熟度评价准则与等级条件,并以紫外敏感器姿态控制技术、探月飞行器轨道设计技术为例进行说明,同时介绍航天器技术成熟度评价工作的主要流程。     

软件能力成熟度模型在航天器软件研制中的应用研究

介绍了美国国防部评估其软件承包商的软件能力成熟度模型(CMM),针对航天器软件工程化实施过程中软件生存周期与实际研制流程不符、软件质量过于依赖整星测试的问题,提出了开发本地化生存周期模型;应用组织资产提升软件复用能力;利用数据采集和分析发现问题本质;重视配套设施、促进软件工程过程的落实等,以及将软件能力成熟度模型思想和内容进行本地化的措施,可为解决当前航天器软件研制中存在的问题,提升软件研制单位能力提供参考。     

硬实时系统中自适应反馈软件容错动态调度算法研究

在飞行控制等硬实时系统中由于任务超时完成将会给系统运行带来灾难性后果,而现有软件容错调度算法在处理机利用率较高时,成功执行主任务所占时间比率下降,针对此提出自适应反馈容错动态调度算法,此算法在经典软件容错调度算法BCE(Basic CAT EIT)的基础上,引入反馈调度机制,形成Feedback BCE调度算法。该算法在运行过程中定期监测处理机利用率,将实际处理机利用率与预期值进行比较,根据比较结果调整对任务集的调度。实验表明,相对于其他同类算法,自适应反馈软件容错调度算法有效降低了浪费的CPU时间片数量,提高了成功执行主任务所占时间比率,有效降低了因处理机超载而引起的主任务丢失率。
     

航天国际合作项目进度风险管理研究

文章针对航天国际合作项目的发展趋势,对其管理模式进行了对比分析,指出新模式对项目计划和风险管理提出的新要求,对航天国际合作项目的工作分解结构、进度管理和风险管理的关联性进行了描述,提出基于风险管理的进度管理体系结构和将风险纳入计划管理体系的工作流程,并给出航天国际合作项目进度管理的有效解决方案。     

航天型号进度控制研究

针对航天型号研制生产的现状,分析了航天型号进度控制的原理,介绍了航天型号进度控制的流程和方法,深入分析了当前进度管理中存在的问题,并结合项目管理理论提出了解决这些问题的总体思路和相应的调整措施。对及时推广和应用先进型号进度控制方法,推动航天型号的持续高速发展具有重要的现实意义。     

航天工程系统技术成熟度评估方法研究

航天工程的技术支持系统十分复杂,单一技术成熟度评估方法不能有效解决系统整体的成熟度评估问题。文章以系统论、集成方法为指导,基于技术系统结构分解,从基本的单机构成要素为起点进行技术成熟度评价,考虑了不同系统层次的技术接口问题,进而按照逐层集成的方法完成一项航天工程整体技术系统成熟度的评估工作。这种评估方法具有系统性、综合性特点,能够满足航天工程整体技术系统成熟度评估的实际应用需求。     

Technology readiness assessments: A retrospective

The development of new system capabilities typically depends upon the prior success of advanced technology research and development efforts. These systems developments inevitably face the three major challenges of any project: performance, schedule and budget. Done well, advanced technology programs can substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. Done poorly, or not at all, and new system developments suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.In the mid 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the concept of “technology readiness levels” (TRLs) as a discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) to allow more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. In 1995, the TRL scale was further strengthened by the articulation of the first definitions of each level, along with examples (J. Mankins, Technology readiness levels, A White Paper, NASA, Washington, DC, 1995. [1]). Since then, TRLs have been embraced by the U.S. Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO), adopted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and are being considered for use by numerous other organizations. Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes diverse organizations.This paper will review the concept of “technology readiness assessments”, and provide a retrospective on the history of “TRLs” during the past 30 years. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important discipline of technology readiness assessments.     

Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

设计模式在任务调度软件中的应用

设计模式是一种基于面向对象思想的软件设计方法,合理应用设计模式能降低软件模块间的耦合度,提高软件灵活性。文章介绍了遥感卫星地面应用系统任务调度软件,并指出此类软件的开发存在需求不确定、输入易变的问题。在对通用需求和易变需求分析的基础上,应用Builder,Composite和Factory Method等设计模式,解耦任务执行控制、任务数据生成和算法调用接口等功能模块,得出一种任务调度软件的设计方案。该方案经过变更影响分析法的验证,能够将各种需求变更的影响控制在对应的模块内,复用通用功能模块,可有效减少变更工作量和降低修改难度。     

空间站应用的发展及存在问题

简要介绍了国外载人空间站应用的发展和"国际空间站"应用的现状,重点总结和分析空间站应用面临的挑战性问题,包括应用人时不足,建设进度推迟,有效载荷配置不到位,运输能力不够,供电欠缺,设备和器材无序安装与存放,缺少合理建造与应用的综合规划和协调程序,以及潜在的设备故障与人为失误,同时,给出了解决这些问题的思路和途径。     

Portfolios of promise: A review of R&D investment techniques and how they apply to technology development in space agencies

Despite a rich legacy of impressive technological accomplishments, the government acquisition of advanced space systems is increasingly synonymous with schedule slips and cost overruns. Program reviews have suggested that investing more in centralized and strategic research and development outside particular programs will reduce technical uncertainties and improve cost and schedule outcomes. This paper suggests roles for a centralized technology office by examining the methods available in the literature for managing portfolios of research projects.     

Metabolic assessments during extra-vehicular activity

Extra-vehicular activity (EVA) has a significant role during extended space flights. It demonstrates that humans can survive and perform useful work outside the Orbital Space Stations (OSS) while wearing protective space suits (SS). When the International Space Station 'Alpha' (ISSA) is fully operational, EVA assembly, installation, maintenance and repair operations will become an everyday repetitive work activity in space. It needs new ergonomic evaluation of the work/rest schedule for an increasing of the labor amount per EVA hour. The metabolism assessment is a helpful method to control the productivity of the EVA astronaut and to optimize the work/rest regime. Three following methods were used in Russia to estimate real-time metabolic rates during EVA: 1. Oxygen consumption, computed from the pressure drop in a high pressure bottle per unit time (with actual thermodynamic oxygen properties under high pressure and oxygen leakage taken into account). 2. Carbon dioxide production, computed from CO2 concentration at the contaminant control cartridge and gas flow rate in the life support subsystem closed loop (nominal mode) or gas leakage in the SS open loop (emergency mode). 3. Heat removal, computed from the difference between the temperatures of coolant water or gas and its flow rate in a unit of time (with assumed humidity and wet oxygen state taken into account). Comparison of heat removal values with metabolic rates enables us to determine the thermal balance during an operative medical control of EVA at "Salyut-6", "Salyut-7" and "Mir" OSS. Complex analysis of metabolism, body temperature and heat rate supports a differential diagnosis between emotional and thermal components of stress during EVA. It gives a prognosis of human homeostasis during EVA. Available information has been acquired into an EVA data base which is an effective tool for ergonomical optimization.