宇宙线福布什下降的数值模拟

本文从银河宇宙线的太阳调制方程出发,认为激波对宇宙线的影响是由一扰动区产生的。在此扰动区中太阳风速度增加,扩散系数下降。由此进行了数值模拟,模拟结果表明:扩散系数的下降在产生福布什下降时要比太阳风速度的增加更为有效;福布什下降在近日球层内向外传播时,其幅度随径向距离的增大而衰减;两个无相互作用的激波同时存在时所产生的福布什下降为每个激波单独存在时的福布什下降的简单线性迭加。      

太阳风速度及日球电流片对CME渡越时间的影响

基于1996-2005年88个引起重大地磁暴的CME(日冕物质抛射)事件、1996-2000年的47个CME事件以及1997-2002年的29个全晕状CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风和行星际磁场观测资料以及Wilcox Solar Observatory(WSO)天文台的太阳光球层磁图,分析了背景太阳风速度和日球电流片对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报误差的影响.结果表明,背景太阳风速度与CME渡越时间误差并没有明显的相关性,在考虑了磁云通量管轴相对黄道面夹角的影响后相关性依然不明显.然而日球电流片对CME渡越时间却有明显的影响,对于初速度较小的异侧CME事件,其渡越时间大于同侧事件;而对于具有较大初速度的CME事件,异侧事件的渡越时间明显小于同侧事件.研究结果表明,CME与太阳风以及日球电流片的相互作用并不是简单的对流相互作用,造成高速CME异侧事件快于同侧事件到达地球的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.      

2001年9月15日Cluster卫星对电流片的观测研究

2001年9月15日0430-0515 UT期间,Cluster卫星多次穿越磁尾电流片.由FGM、CIS等仪器获得了电流片磁场,粒子速度等数据变化情况,并得到了磁尾高速流的两次明显反转.本文采用GSM坐标系.利用求磁场空间梯度张量的方法获得了越尾电流,其电流密度的峰值为28nA/m2.并对电流片在垂直方向上的摆动和在晨昏方向的波动现象进行了分析.数据显示此时电流片为薄电流片并有一个变薄的趋势,其厚度大约为0.2-0.3 Re.磁场重联时地向流与尾向流均超过了1000 km/s,并测得了电流片的法线方向和运动速度,从而得到了磁尾电流片的结构和运动情况.      

二维太阳风速度结构与日球电流片

本文分析了第1733—1742Carrington周的太阳耀斑、行星际闪烁(IPS)、太阳风及K-日冕资料,对二维太阳风速度结构进行了综合研究。结果表明:速度的大尺度分布、高速区、速度梯度、经度不均匀性和边界形状等方面相对于太阳赤道面都是不对称的;通过对理想的和实际的电流片以及飞船测量的磁场和速度比较,可以看到电流片附近大体上为低速区,但不存在简单的对应关系;扰动太阳风对背景太阳风的二维速度结构有显著的影响;理想电流片与实际电流片之间也存在较大的差距。      

由环电流的宇宙线效应验证二维对称环电流模型

本文利用不同纬度超中子堆记录的宇宙线强度, 对不同磁暴类型下环电流的宇宙线效应进行了分析。加强的西向环电流使宇宙线截止刚度下降, 在某些特大的磁暴中, 中低纬字宙线截止刚度下降可达1GV以上, 从而使宇宙线强度增加。利用二维对称环电流模式, 从宇宙线的角度计算了环电流的磁暴效应。与实际观测值的对比显示, 除非特大的磁暴过程, 利用该模式所得结果与实际观测符合得较好。      

宇宙线北南各向异性的共转变化

本文统计分析了1971—1975年期间宇宙线北南各向异性及相关的太阳风和行星际磁场在卡林顿自转周中的变化,即共转变化.结果表明宇宙线北南各向异性与行星际磁场分量Bx、By有非常好的相关,相关系数高达0.8以上.利用地面观测的宇宙线各向异性有可能推求行星际磁场的极性.     

行星际起伏向磁层顶的输运

时间尺度为分钟数量级的太阳风速度和行星际磁场大幅度扰动实际上始终存在于行星际空间的。这些扰动一直传输到紧贴磁层边界面外侧的区域。它们在磁鞘等离子体和磁层顶的相互作用过程中可能起很重要的作用。行星际起伏中的磁场分量在通过地球弓激波时首先经历一次跳跃,然后一部分扰动被带到磁层边界面处。在边界面附近磁场扰动幅度被大大地放大了。弓激波上游的太阳风条件控制了放大因子。本文所作的数值模拟研究结果表明,如果上游有大幅度的扰动,在边界面附近就有大幅度的Alfven起伏的磁场分量。当上游磁场接近垂直于日地联线时,放大因子变得相当大,而且放大因子随上游的等离子体β值和/或Alfven马赫数的增加而增加。上游各向异性对放大因子的影响不大。在磁层边界附近存在大幅度起伏表明这里不存在稳定的片流。      

远东地区的微粒E层事件

本文给出了1983-1985年磁暴期间,我国乌鲁木齐等七个站及日本国分寺等五个站出现微粒E层的情况;得到了微粒E层的日变化、月变化和纬度变化;结合同时的地磁、宇宙线、TEC和电离层的变化,对微粒E层出现率作了分析。初步证实:微粒E层的形成和维持与赤道环电流指数(Dst)负变幅大小密切相关,此外还同宇宙线的FD(Forbushdecreases)事件的出现有关。作者认为,沉降粒子可能是低纬地区微粒E层事件的主要粒子来源。      

磁层顶穿越事件自动识别算法

磁层顶是太阳风与磁层进行质量、动量、能量交换的关键区域.磁层顶穿越事件(MCEs)可通过对卫星探测到的粒子能谱和磁场数据图进行人工分析的方式来识别.因太阳风动压和行星际磁场的易变性,位于磁层顶附近的卫星经过长期观测可能会经历成千上万次的磁层顶穿越.人工分析的方法工作量巨大,而且识别速度慢.本文发展了一种新的日下点附近M...     

磁层顶对磁层磁场的影响

太阳风与地磁场相互作用形成的磁层顶对磁层内磁场有重要影响。本文假定地磁场为偶极子,太阳风为理想导体,在太阳风与磁层的边界上满足磁场法向分量为零的边界条件。采用最小二乘法求得磁层顶电流在磁层内产生的磁场的球谐系数。从计算结果可以看出磁层顶对磁层磁场的影响。结果表明,向阳面的磁场、中性点、极光区的位置与形状与实际观测比较接近;磁尾磁场与实际观测相差较远,原因是没有加上磁尾片电流。文中还给出了太阳风与地磁轴交不同角度时的磁层磁场的计算结果。      

Dependence of the 27-day variation of cosmic rays on the global magnetic field of the Sun

We show that the higher range of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed in the positive polarity period (A > 0) than in the negative polarity period (A < 0) is one of the important reasons of the larger amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the period of 1995–1997 (A > 0) than in 1985–1987 (A < 0). Subsequently, different ranges of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed jointly with equally important corresponding drift effect are general causes of the polarity dependence of the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. At the same time, we show that the polarity dependence is feeble for the last unusual minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0); the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity shows only a tendency of the polarity dependence. We present a three dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of GCR based on the Parker’s transport equation. In the 3-D model is implemented a longitudinal variation of the solar wind speed reproducing in situ measurements and corresponding divergence-free interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) derived from the Maxwell’s equations. We show that results of the proposed 3-D modeling of the 27-day variation of GCR intensity for different polarities of the solar magnetic cycle are in good agreement with the neutron monitors experimental data. To reach a compatibility of the theoretical modeling with observations for the last minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0) a parallel diffusion coefficient was increased by ∼40%.     

Modeling and experimental study of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic-ray intensity for a solar wind velocity depending on heliolongitude

We develop a three-dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) intensity with a spatial variation of the solar wind velocity. A consistent, divergence-free interplanetary magnetic field is derived by solving the corresponding Maxwell equations with a variable solar wind speed, which reproduces in situ observed experimental data for the time interval to be analyzed (24 August 2007–28 February 2008). We perform model calculations for the GCR intensity using the variable solar wind and the corresponding magnetic field. Results are compatible with experimental data; the correlation coefficient between our model predictions and observed 27-day GCR variation is 0.80 ± 0.05.     

Modelling of galactic Carbon in an asymmetrical heliosphere: Effects of asymmetrical modulation conditions

Observations of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) from the two Voyager spacecraft inside the heliosheath indicate significant differences between them, suggesting that in addition to a possible global asymmetry in the north–south dimensions (meridional plane) of the heliosphere, it is also possible that different modulation (turbulence) conditions could exist between the two hemispheres of the heliosphere. We focus on illustrating the effects on GCR Carbon of asymmetrical modulation conditions combined with a heliosheath thickness that has a significant dependence on heliolatitude. To reflect different modulation conditions between the two heliospheric hemispheres in our numerical model, the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion off the ecliptic plane is assumed to differ from heliographic pole to pole. The computed radial GCR intensities at polar angles of 55° (approximating the Voyager 1 direction) and 125° (approximating the Voyager 2 direction) are compared at different energies and for both particle drift cycles. This is done in the context of illustrating how different values of the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion between the two hemispheres contribute to causing differences in radial intensities during solar minimum and moderate maximum conditions. We find that in the A > 0 cycle these differences between 55° and 125° change both quantitatively and qualitatively for the assumed asymmetrical modulation condition as reflected by polar diffusion, while in the A < 0 cycle, minute quantitative differences are obtained. However, when both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion have significant latitude dependences, major differences in radial intensities between the two polar angles are obtained in both polarity cycles. Furthermore, significant differences in radial intensity gradients obtained in the heliosheath at lower energies may suggest that the solar wind turbulence at and beyond the solar wind termination shock must have a larger latitudinal dependence.     

27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy in the minimum of the 23rd solar activity cycle

We study the 27-day variations of the solar wind velocity, galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity and anisotropy in the last minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0). The average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy (A27A) in the current minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0) is lesser than in previous positive polarity period as it is expected from the drift theory. So, polarity dependence rule for the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy is fully kept. It is a universal principle for the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy. At the same time, the average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (A27I) remains at the same level as for previous minimum epoch 1995–1997 (A > 0) showing by the same token an violation of its polarity dependence rule established earlier. We assume that this phenomenon could be generally related with the well established 27-day variation of the solar wind velocity being in anti-correlation with the similar changes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. Generally, a character of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of spatial large-scale structure of the solar wind velocity (SWV) established in the recent minimum epoch, preferentially pronounces in the behavior of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity than anisotropy. The formation of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy preferentially takes place in a restricted disk like local vicinity in the helioequatorial region, whilst the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is formed in the global three dimensional vicinity of the heliosphere.     

Interplanetary shocks and sudden impulses during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

In this work a study is performed on the correlation between fast forward interplanetary shock parameters at 1 Astronomical Unit and sudden impulse (SI) amplitudes in the H-component of the geomagnetic field, for periods of solar activity maximum (year 2000) and minimum (year 1995–1996). Solar wind temperature, density and speed, and total magnetic field, were taken to calculate the static pressures (thermal and magnetic) both in the upstream and downstream sides of the shocks. The variations of the solar wind parameters and pressures were then correlated with SI amplitudes. The solar wind speed variations presented good correlations with sudden impulses, with correlation coefficients larger than 0.70 both in solar maximum and solar minimum, whereas the solar wind density presented very low correlation. The parameter better correlated with SI was the square root dynamic pressure variation, showing a larger correlation during solar maximum (r = 0.82) than during solar minimum (r = 0.77). The correlations of SI with square root thermal and magnetic pressure were smaller than with the dynamic pressure, but they also present a good correlation, with r > 0.70 during both solar maximum and minimum. Multiple linear correlation analysis of SI in terms of the three pressure terms have shown that 78% and 85% of the variance in SI during solar maximum and minimum, respectively, are explained by the three pressure variations. Average sudden impulse amplitude was 25 nT during solar maximum and 21 nT during solar minimum, while average square root dynamic pressure variation is 1.20 and 0.86 nPa^1/2 during solar maximum and minimum, respectively. Thus on average, fast forward interplanetary shocks are 33% stronger during solar maximum than during solar minimum, and the magnetospheric SI response has amplitude 20% higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum. A comparison with theoretical predictions (Tsyganenko’s model corrected by Earth’s induced currents) of the coefficient of sudden impulse change with solar wind dynamic pressure variation showed excellent agreement, with values around 17 nT/nPa^1/2.     

Estimation of Galactic Cosmic Ray exposure inside and outside the Earth’s magnetosphere during the recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24

The evidently low solar activity observed between solar cycles 23 and 24 during the years 2008–2010 led to a substantial increase in the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity in comparison with preceding solar minima. As the GCRs consist of highly-ionizing charged particles having the potential to cause biological damage, they are a subject of concern for manned missions to space. With the enhanced particle fluxes observed between 2008 and 2010, it is reasonable to assume that the radiation exposure from GCR must have also increased to unusually high levels. In this paper, the GCR exposure outside and inside the Earth’s magnetosphere is numerically calculated for time periods starting from 1970 to the end of 2011 in order to investigate the increase in dose levels during the years 2008–2010 in comparison with the last three solar minima. The dose rates were calculated in a water sphere, used as a surrogate for the human body, either unshielded or surrounded by aluminium shielding of 0.3, 10 or 40 g/cm².     

Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of their contribution in expected global climate change

On the basis of results obtained in our paper [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], we determine: the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection–diffusion; drift mechanisms of long-term variations of cosmic ray (CR) dependence on particle energy; level of solar activity (SA); and generally, the solar magnetic field. We obtain this important information on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection–diffusion and global drift modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and other regularly published predictions of expected SA variation in the near future, as well as predictions of the next SA cycle, we may make predictions of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years). In [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], properties of connections between long-term variation in CR intensity and some part of a global climate change were estimated, controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that in this way we may make predictions of some part of a global climate change expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years and maybe more, depending upon the period during which definite predictions of SA can be made), controlled by solar activity through CR. In this case, estimations of expected long-term changes in the planetary distribution of cutoff rigidities, which also influence CR intensity, as well as CR-influenced effects on global climate variation, become important.     

New index of long-term variations of galactic cosmic ray intensity

We find that the soft rigidity spectrum of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity variations for the maximum epoch and the hard rigidity spectrum for the minimum epoch calculated based on the neutron monitors experimental data (1960–2002) are related with the various dependence of the diffusion coefficient on the GCR particle’s rigidity for different epoch of solar activity. This dependence is stronger in the maximum epoch than in the minimum epoch of solar activity, and is provided by the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turbulence from the maxima to minima epoch of solar activity. We also show that the rigidity spectrum of GCR intensity variations is harder for the effective rigidities ∼(10–15) GV (by neutron monitors data), than for the effective rigidities ∼(25–30) GV (by neutron monitors and muon telescopes data). A general scenario of GCR modulation versus solar activity is settled on the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the IMF turbulence. Therefore, the temporal changes of the power law rigidity spectrum exponent can be considered as a vital (new) index to explain the 11-year variations of the GCR intensity. We assume that ∼(70–80)% of the changes of the amplitudes of the 11-year variations of GCR intensity is related with the changes of the IMF turbulence versus solar activity.     

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic and possible association with solar activity and galactic cosmic rays

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic for the period 1874–1995 (Mean Sea Level Pressure archive, Climatic Research Unit, UK) were compared with indices of solar and geomagnetic activity and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations characterized by the concentration of the cosmogenic isotope ¹⁰Be. A periodicity of ∼80 yrs close to the Gleissberg cycle in the intensity of the 11-yr solar cycles was found in the pressure variations at middle latitudes (45–65°N) in the cold half of the year, which is the period of intensive cyclogenesis. It was shown that a long-term increase of pressure in this region coincided with a secular rise of solar/geomagnetic activity which was accompanied by a decrease in GCR intensity. Long-term decreases of pressure were observed during the periods of low (or decreasing) intensities of sunspot cycles. Similar features were also found in the spectral characteristics of geomagnetic activity indices, GCR intensity and pressure at middle latitudes on the quasi-decadal time scale. Effects of solar activity/GCR variations on the surface pressure seem to be more pronounced in the North Atlantic zone of intensive cyclogenesis (near the eastern coasts of North America). The results obtained suggest possible links between long-term variations in cyclonic activity at extratropical latitudes of the North Atlantic and solar activity/GCR variations on the time scales from ∼10 to ∼100 yrs.